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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 15 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 17:00
Final 116-103
23-22 24-31 33-23 36-27
Position#1
Record55-16
FormWWWWW
Points / game117.7
Allowed / game108.1
vs
Position#10
Record42-30
FormWLLLW
Points / game118.6
Allowed / game115.5
USANBA· Paycom Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Oklahoma City Thunder v Minnesota Timberwolves
02 Mar 2027
OKC v MIN
upcoming
25 Nov 2026
OKC v MIN
upcoming
15 Mar 2026
OKC116
MIN103
26 Nov 2025
OKC113
MIN105
28 May 2025
OKC124
MIN94
22 May 2025
OKC118
MIN103
20 May 2025
OKC114
MIN88
24 Feb 2025
OKC128
MIN131
31 Dec 2024
OKC113
MIN105
29 Jan 2024
OKC101
MIN107
26 Dec 2023
OKC129
MIN106
16 Dec 2022
OKC110
MIN112
23 Oct 2022
OKC106
MIN116
04 Mar 2022
OKC101
MIN138
07 Jan 2022
OKC105
MIN135
06 Feb 2021
OKC120
MIN118
05 Feb 2021
OKC103
MIN106
13 Mar 2020
OKC v MIN
upcoming
06 Dec 2019
OKC139
MIN127
08 Jan 2019
OKC117
MIN119
23 Dec 2018
OKC112
MIN114
01 Dec 2017
OKC111
MIN107
22 Oct 2017
OKC113
MIN115
25 Dec 2016
OKC112
MIN100
05 Nov 2016
OKC112
MIN92
16 Oct 2016
OKC112
MIN94
11 Mar 2016
OKC96
MIN99
15 Jan 2016
OKC113
MIN93
13 Mar 2015
OKC113
MIN99
26 Jan 2015
OKC92
MIN84
19 Oct 2014
OKC94
MIN112
05 Feb 2014
OKC106
MIN97
01 Dec 2013
OKC113
MIN103
22 Feb 2013
OKC127
MIN111
09 Jan 2013
OKC106
MIN84
23 Mar 2012
OKC149
MIN140
25 Mar 2011
OKC111
MIN103
22 Nov 2010
OKC117
MIN107
04 Apr 2010
OKC116
MIN108
26 Feb 2010
OKC109
MIN92
28 Nov 2008
OKC103
MIN105
02 Nov 2008
OKC88
MIN85
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minnesota Timberwolves winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
121-113
121
113
+8
118avg 109
H22/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
116-107
116
107
+9
109avg 109
A25/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
116-124
116
124
-8
102avg 109
A26/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
127-121 OT
127
121
+6
123avg 109
H28/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#23
W
100-87
100
87
+13
88avg 109
A02/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
116-108
116
108
+8
104avg 109
A04/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
103-100
103
100
+3
97avg 109
A05/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
104-97
104
97
+7
100avg 109
H08/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
129-126
129
126
+3
118avg 109
H09/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
104-102
104
102
+2
94avg 109
H13/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
40-25
24-30
25-31
32-27
25-32
35-19
38-29
18-27
34-22
18-36
28-36
36-30
19-33
31-26
27-24
30-24
36-25
22-24
25-20
17-18
26-22
29-32
32-22
29-32
25-23
25-17
27-40
26-20
34-28
33-26
19-29
18-14
37-40
29-20
30-33
33-33
27-28
29-31
24-24
24-19
222.1Avg total
113.6Scored
108.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (71)117.7108.1225.8+9.577%
Season at home (35)117.2107.2224.4+10.183%
Season away (36)118.1109.0227.1+9.172%
Last 10 (10)113.6108.5222.1+5.190%
Last 5 (5)111.2106.6217.8+4.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)109.6108.0217.6+1.660%
vs Weaker ◀ (25)116.4108.0224.4+8.476%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#16
L
108-135
108
135
-27
104avg 110
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
124-121
124
121
+3
118avg 110
A25/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#17
W
94-88
94
88
+6
85avg 110
A27/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
117-108
117
108
+9
116avg 110
A01/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
117-110
117
110
+7
111avg 110
H04/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
115-107
115
107
+8
110avg 110
H06/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#12
L
92-119
92
119
-27
72avg 110
H07/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
L
106-120
106
120
-14
99avg 110
A11/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#17
L
128-153
128
153
-25
127avg 110
A12/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
127-117
127
117
+10
127avg 110
A14/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-35
32-33
20-26
30-41
33-27
29-32
34-35
28-27
29-27
15-11
19-30
31-20
22-31
36-19
32-32
27-26
23-32
34-30
32-20
28-28
31-27
24-27
35-22
25-31
30-27
20-33
28-30
14-29
21-16
24-29
23-39
38-36
27-38
38-36
33-35
30-44
31-28
38-20
31-39
27-30
230.6Avg total
112.8Scored
117.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (72)118.6115.5234.1+3.058%
Season at home (35)115.3111.5226.8+3.863%
Season away (37)121.6119.4241.0+2.354%
Last 10 (10)112.8117.8230.6-5.060%
Last 5 (5)113.6123.2236.8-9.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)116.7113.3230.0+3.367%
vs Similar (18)114.9117.0231.9-2.156%
vs Weaker (9)123.0116.6239.6+6.456%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -1.3-1.3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: -3.4-3.4
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.5+2.5Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: -1.3-1.3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: -3.4-3.4
Oklahoma City ThunderMinnesota Timberwolves
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
64-55
64
55
+9
H22/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
60-51
60
51
+9
A25/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
52-58
52
58
-6
A26/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
50-59
50
59
-9
H28/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#23
W
58-49
58
49
+9
A02/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
55-54
55
54
+1
A04/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
50-40
50
40
+10
A05/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H08/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
66-60
66
60
+6
H09/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
56-59
56
59
-3
H13/03
NBA
111.7Avg total
57.8Scored
53.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.854.1111.9+3.767%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.453.1109.5+3.360%-
Last 30 away (15)59.255.2114.4+4.073%-
Last 10 (10)57.853.9111.7+3.970%-
Last 5 (5)58.853.4112.2+5.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (5)54.256.4110.6-2.240%-
vs Weaker ◀ (25)58.553.7112.2+4.872%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#16
L
58-68
58
68
-10
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
62-59
62
59
+3
A25/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#17
W
44-38
44
38
+6
A27/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
58-50
58
50
+8
A01/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
57-62
57
62
-5
H04/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
55-54
55
54
+1
H06/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#12
L
50-60
50
60
-10
H07/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
D
45-45
45
45
+0
A11/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#17
L
65-74
65
74
-9
A12/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
69-48
69
48
+21
A14/03
NBA
112.1Avg total
56.3Scored
55.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.255.8113.9+2.457%-
Last 30 at home (15)58.155.7113.7+2.453%-
Last 30 away (15)58.355.9114.1+2.460%-
Last 10 (10)56.355.8112.1+0.550%-
Last 5 (5)56.856.2113.0+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)49.758.0107.7-8.333%-
vs Similar (18)57.355.4112.7+1.956%-
vs Weaker (9)62.855.8118.6+7.067%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 113.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.6 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.8 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.426.3
55.5%
54.8%52.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.114.6
34.7%
35.8%43.8
🏀 Free throws21.117.2
81.5%
78.1%17.2
They take 89.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 112.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.128.6
58.2%
54.8%57.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.711.9
34.3%
35.8%35.7
🏀 Free throws25.419.3
76.0%
78.1%19.3
They take 83.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oklahoma City Thunder
WWWWWWWLWW
Minnesota Timberwolves
WLLLWWWWWL
#1
League position
#10
+5.0
Net rating
-1.4
111.6
Offensive rating
111.5
106.6
Defensive rating
112.9
53.9%
Effective FG%
55.4%
51.7%
Opp. effective FG%
52.4%
11.6%
Turnover %
14.6%
19.7%
Off. rebound %
23.5%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.30
34.7%
3-point %
34.3%
62.1%
Assist %
59.0%
90%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence111.6 · 111.5Defence106.6 · 112.9Shooting53.9% · 55.4%3-point %34.7% · 34.3%Ball care11.6% · 14.6%Off. rebounds19.7% · 23.5%Free throws0.24 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)90% · 60%
■ Oklahoma City Thunder   ■ Minnesota Timberwolves
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/26HBoston Celtics104-102
09/03/26HDenver Nuggets129-126
08/03/26HGolden State Warriors104-97
05/03/26ANew York Knicks103-100
04/03/26AChicago Bulls116-108
02/03/26ADallas Mavericks100-87
28/02/26HDenver Nuggets127-121 OT
26/02/26ADetroit Pistons116-124
25/02/26AToronto Raptors116-107
22/02/26HCleveland Cavaliers121-113
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/03/26AGolden State Warriors127-117
12/03/26ALos Angeles Clippers128-153
11/03/26ALos Angeles Lakers106-120
07/03/26HOrlando Magic92-119
06/03/26HToronto Raptors115-107
04/03/26HMemphis Grizzlies117-110
01/03/26ADenver Nuggets117-108
27/02/26ALos Angeles Clippers94-88
25/02/26APortland Trail Blazers124-121
23/02/26HPhiladelphia 76ers108-135

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW77%
HomeWWWWW83%
AwayWLWWW72%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games713536
Win %77%83%72%
Points / game117.7117.2118.1
Allowed / game108.1107.2109.0
Point differential+9.5+10.1+9.1
Avg total225.8224.4227.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%46%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (15)75% (8)43% (7)
Overtime %6%9%3%
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW58%
HomeWLWWL63%
AwayWWLLW54%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games723537
Win %58%63%54%
Points / game118.6115.3121.6
Allowed / game115.5111.5119.4
Point differential+3.0+3.8+2.3
Avg total234.1226.8241.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%37%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (21)55% (11)30% (10)
Overtime %7%3%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder71551677%117.7108.1+9.5
2 San Antonio Spurs69511874%119.2111.8+7.4
3 Detroit Pistons70502071%117.2109.7+7.5
4 Boston Celtics71472466%114.5107.0+7.5
5 Houston Rockets70452564%115.1110.5+4.6
6 New York Knicks71452663%115.9110.1+5.9
7 Orlando Magic68412760%116.2113.7+2.5
8 Denver Nuggets73442960%119.9116.1+3.8
9 Phoenix Suns70422860%113.0110.5+2.5
10 Los Angeles Lakers72432960%115.4114.9+0.5
11 Cleveland Cavaliers71422959%118.8114.9+3.9
12 Minnesota Timberwolves72423058%118.6115.5+3.0
13 Toronto Raptors71413058%113.8111.9+1.9
14 Atlanta Hawks71383354%117.7116.9+0.8
15 Philadelphia 76ers71373452%114.9116.0-1.0
16 Miami Heat73383552%119.8116.9+2.9
17 Los Angeles Clippers70363451%113.0112.0+1.0
18 Charlotte Hornets73363749%115.9112.9+3.0
19 Golden State Warriors71353649%115.2114.4+0.9
20 Portland Trail Blazers71333846%115.6118.1-2.5
21 Milwaukee Bucks70304043%111.1115.7-4.6
22 Chicago Bulls72304242%116.1120.2-4.1
23 Dallas Mavericks71254635%113.0117.1-4.1
24 Memphis Grizzlies71244734%115.8119.1-3.3
25 New Orleans Pelicans70224831%115.8120.2-4.4
26 Utah Jazz71215030%117.6125.3-7.6
27 Brooklyn Nets70185226%107.2115.8-8.6
28 Sacramento Kings72185425%110.9120.7-9.8
29 Washington Wizards69175225%112.5123.2-10.6
30 Indiana Pacers71175424%111.3119.9-8.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Oklahoma City Thunder23243336116
Minnesota Timberwolves22312327103
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