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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 09 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 129-126
37-40 29-20 30-33 33-33
Position#1
Record49-14
FormWWWWW
Points / game118.5
Allowed / game107.8
vs
Position#6
Record39-25
FormLLWWL
Points / game120.2
Allowed / game116.5
USANBA· Paycom Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets
30 Jan 2027
OKC v DEN
upcoming
22 Oct 2026
OKC96
DEN84
09 Mar 2026
OKC129
DEN126
27 Feb 2026
OKC127
DEN121
18 May 2025
OKC125
DEN93
13 May 2025
OKC112
DEN105
07 May 2025
OKC149
DEN106
05 May 2025
OKC119
DEN121
10 Mar 2025
OKC127
DEN140
09 Mar 2025
OKC127
DEN103
31 Jan 2024
OKC105
DEN100
29 Oct 2023
OKC95
DEN128
23 Nov 2022
OKC126
DEN131
03 Nov 2022
OKC110
DEN122
09 Jan 2022
OKC95
DEN99
22 Dec 2021
OKC108
DEN94
27 Feb 2021
OKC96
DEN126
03 Aug 2020
OKC113
DEN121
21 Feb 2020
OKC113
DEN101
29 Mar 2019
OKC105
DEN115
24 Nov 2018
OKC98
DEN105
30 Mar 2018
OKC125
DEN126
18 Dec 2017
OKC95
DEN94
12 Apr 2017
OKC105
DEN111
07 Jan 2017
OKC121
DEN106
27 Dec 2015
OKC122
DEN112
01 Nov 2015
OKC117
DEN93
22 Feb 2015
OKC119
DEN94
01 Nov 2014
OKC102
DEN91
24 Mar 2014
OKC117
DEN96
18 Nov 2013
OKC115
DEN113
19 Mar 2013
OKC104
DEN114
16 Jan 2013
OKC117
DEN97
25 Apr 2012
OKC101
DEN106
19 Feb 2012
OKC124
DEN118
27 Apr 2011
OKC100
DEN97
20 Apr 2011
OKC106
DEN89
17 Apr 2011
OKC107
DEN103
08 Apr 2011
OKC104
DEN89
25 Dec 2010
OKC114
DEN106
07 Apr 2010
OKC94
DEN98
29 Jan 2010
OKC101
DEN84
04 Feb 2009
OKC113
DEN114
02 Jan 2009
OKC120
DEN122
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
93-110
93
110
-17
85avg 109
H13/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
105-86
105
86
+19
99avg 109
H21/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
121-113
121
113
+8
118avg 109
H22/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
116-107
116
107
+9
109avg 109
A25/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
116-124
116
124
-8
102avg 109
A26/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
127-121 OT
127
121
+6
123avg 109
H28/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
100-87
100
87
+13
88avg 109
A02/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
116-108
116
108
+8
104avg 109
A04/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
103-100
103
100
+3
97avg 109
A05/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
104-97
104
97
+7
100avg 109
H08/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-30
30-37
18-22
20-21
21-23
29-10
27-34
28-19
40-25
24-30
25-31
32-27
25-32
35-19
38-29
18-27
34-22
18-36
28-36
36-30
19-33
31-26
27-24
30-24
36-25
22-24
25-20
17-18
26-22
29-32
32-22
29-32
25-23
25-17
27-40
26-20
34-28
33-26
19-29
18-14
215.4Avg total
110.1Scored
105.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (63)118.5107.8226.3+10.778%
Season at home (31)117.9107.0224.8+10.981%
Season away (32)119.1108.7227.7+10.475%
Last 10 (10)110.1105.3215.4+4.880%
Last 5 (5)110.0102.6212.6+7.4100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)111.0109.5220.5+1.550%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)114.7107.9222.6+6.869%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
122-116
122
116
+6
123avg 112
H12/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
114-115
114
115
-1
109avg 112
A20/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
157-103
157
103
+54
168avg 112
A21/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
117-128
117
128
-11
108avg 112
A22/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
103-84
103
84
+19
97avg 112
H26/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
121-127 OT
121
127
-6
108avg 112
A28/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
108-117
108
117
-9
99avg 112
H01/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
128-125
128
125
+3
128avg 112
A03/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
120-113
120
113
+7
121avg 112
H06/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
103-142
103
142
-39
93avg 112
H07/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-28
30-26
33-27
29-35
24-25
28-20
25-33
37-37
41-27
41-26
43-32
32-18
27-39
40-37
34-19
16-33
21-24
26-24
30-19
26-17
33-19
26-31
24-27
24-30
31-22
19-36
32-32
26-27
33-34
33-33
34-26
28-32
32-22
32-32
29-32
27-27
29-27
23-38
28-40
23-37
236.3Avg total
119.3Scored
117.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (64)120.2116.5236.6+3.761%
Season at home (30)117.4115.3232.7+2.157%
Season away (34)122.6117.5240.1+5.165%
Last 10 (10)119.3117.0236.3+2.350%
Last 5 (5)116.0124.8240.8-8.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)116.0124.0240.0-8.00%
vs Similar (14)109.8115.1224.9-5.329%
vs Weaker (14)120.4113.4233.7+7.086%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: -2.5-2.5
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: +3.4+3.4Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: -2.1-2.1Q3: +2.5+2.5Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: -2.5-2.5
Oklahoma City ThunderDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
55-67
55
67
-12
H13/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
W
50-33
50
33
+17
H21/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
64-55
64
55
+9
H22/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
60-51
60
51
+9
A25/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
52-58
52
58
-6
A26/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
50-59
50
59
-9
H28/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
58-49
58
49
+9
A02/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
55-54
55
54
+1
A04/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
50-40
50
40
+10
A05/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H08/03
NBA
108.1Avg total
56.1Scored
52.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.053.8110.8+3.267%-
Last 30 at home (14)55.353.1108.4+2.157%-
Last 30 away (16)58.654.4112.9+4.275%-
Last 10 (10)56.152.0108.1+4.170%-
Last 5 (5)56.051.2107.2+4.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)53.855.8109.5-2.050%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)57.553.5111.0+4.069%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
60-54
60
54
+6
H12/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
52-45
52
45
+7
A20/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#19
W
82-53
82
53
+29
A21/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
67-76
67
76
-9
A22/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H26/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
59-50
59
50
+9
A28/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-58
50
58
-8
H01/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
66-67
66
67
-1
A03/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
64-54
64
54
+10
H06/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
52-65
52
65
-13
H07/03
NBA
116.9Avg total
59.9Scored
57.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.056.3113.3+0.743%-
Last 30 at home (15)55.755.7111.4-0.147%-
Last 30 away (15)58.356.9115.3+1.440%-
Last 10 (10)59.957.0116.9+2.950%-
Last 5 (5)58.258.8117.0-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)57.056.0113.0+1.050%-
vs Similar (14)53.255.9109.1-2.736%-
vs Weaker (14)60.856.8117.6+4.050%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 110.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀44%
🏀🏀🏀39%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.8 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.2 pts a game · 39% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.424.4
51.5%
54.8%48.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.014.4
35.1%
35.8%43.2
🏀 Free throws21.818.1
83.0%
78.1%18.1
They take 88.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 119.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.7 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.8 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.028.9
56.7%
54.8%57.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.712.9
36.1%
35.8%38.7
🏀 Free throws28.722.8
79.4%
78.1%22.8
They take 86.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oklahoma City Thunder
WWWWWLWWWL
Denver Nuggets
LWWLLWLWLW
#1
League position
#6
+4.7
Net rating
+2.2
108.5
Offensive rating
115.1
103.7
Defensive rating
112.9
52.0%
Effective FG%
55.7%
51.3%
Opp. effective FG%
56.2%
13.5%
Turnover %
14.3%
22.4%
Off. rebound %
24.6%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.33
35.1%
3-point %
36.1%
64.2%
Assist %
67.5%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence108.5 · 115.1Defence103.7 · 112.9Shooting52.0% · 55.7%3-point %35.1% · 36.1%Ball care13.5% · 14.3%Off. rebounds22.4% · 24.6%Free throws0.25 · 0.33Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Oklahoma City Thunder   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
08/03/26HGolden State Warriors104-97
05/03/26ANew York Knicks103-100
04/03/26AChicago Bulls116-108
02/03/26ADallas Mavericks100-87
28/02/26HDenver Nuggets127-121 OT
26/02/26ADetroit Pistons116-124
25/02/26AToronto Raptors116-107
22/02/26HCleveland Cavaliers121-113
21/02/26HBrooklyn Nets105-86
13/02/26HMilwaukee Bucks93-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/03/26HNew York Knicks103-142
06/03/26HLos Angeles Lakers120-113
03/03/26AUtah Jazz128-125
01/03/26HMinnesota Timberwolves108-117
28/02/26AOklahoma City Thunder121-127 OT
26/02/26HBoston Celtics103-84
22/02/26AGolden State Warriors117-128
21/02/26APortland Trail Blazers157-103
20/02/26ALos Angeles Clippers114-115
12/02/26HMemphis Grizzlies122-116

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW78%
HomeLWWWW81%
AwayWLWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games633132
Win %78%81%75%
Points / game118.5117.9119.1
Allowed / game107.8107.0108.7
Point differential+10.7+10.9+10.4
Avg total226.3224.8227.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+51%52%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won45% (11)60% (5)33% (6)
Overtime %6%10%3%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL61%
HomeWWLWL57%
AwayLWLLW65%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games643034
Win %61%57%65%
Points / game120.2117.4122.6
Allowed / game116.5115.3117.5
Point differential+3.7+2.1+5.1
Avg total236.6232.7240.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%30%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (22)44% (9)54% (13)
Overtime %9%7%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder63491478%118.5107.8+10.7
2 San Antonio Spurs62451773%118.5111.4+7.1
3 Detroit Pistons63451871%116.7109.8+6.9
4 Boston Celtics64432167%114.5106.9+7.6
5 Minnesota Timberwolves64402462%118.6114.5+4.2
6 New York Knicks63392462%116.7110.6+6.1
7 Houston Rockets63392462%114.6109.9+4.7
8 Los Angeles Lakers63392462%115.8114.8+1.1
9 Cleveland Cavaliers65402562%118.7114.6+4.2
10 Denver Nuggets64392561%120.2116.5+3.7
11 Phoenix Suns63372659%112.4110.6+1.9
12 Toronto Raptors62362658%113.9111.6+2.3
13 Miami Heat64362856%120.3116.5+3.8
14 Orlando Magic61342756%115.0113.4+1.6
15 Philadelphia 76ers64343053%115.6116.1-0.5
16 Atlanta Hawks64333152%117.7117.3+0.4
17 Golden State Warriors63323151%115.0113.9+1.1
18 Charlotte Hornets65323349%115.9112.5+3.4
19 Los Angeles Clippers63313249%112.6112.2+0.3
20 Portland Trail Blazers65313448%115.3118.0-2.6
21 Milwaukee Bucks63273643%111.1115.8-4.7
22 Chicago Bulls64263841%115.4119.8-4.4
23 Memphis Grizzlies62233937%115.7117.8-2.2
24 Dallas Mavericks64214333%113.0117.7-4.8
25 New Orleans Pelicans66214532%115.5120.2-4.7
26 Utah Jazz64194530%117.4125.0-7.7
27 Brooklyn Nets63164725%106.9115.6-8.7
28 Washington Wizards63164725%112.3123.3-11.0
29 Indiana Pacers64154923%111.4120.0-8.6
30 Sacramento Kings65155023%110.6121.1-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Oklahoma City Thunder37293033129
Denver Nuggets40203333126
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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