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Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 12 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 125-119
32-34 19-34 42-30 32-21
Position#3
Record44-20
FormWWLWW
Points / game114.9
Allowed / game110.5
Denver Nuggets 🏆
USA
vs
Toronto Raptors
USA
Position#25
Record23-41
FormLWLLL
Points / game114.2
Allowed / game118.2
USANBA· Ball Arena (Denver)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors
04 Nov 2026
DEN128
TOR109
20 Mar 2026
DEN121
TOR115
04 Nov 2024
DEN121
TOR119
11 Mar 2024
DEN125
TOR119
06 Mar 2023
DEN118
TOR113
12 Mar 2022
DEN115
TOR127
29 Apr 2021
DEN121
TOR111
01 Mar 2020
DEN133
TOR118
16 Dec 2018
DEN95
TOR86
01 Nov 2017
DEN129
TOR111
18 Nov 2016
DEN111
TOR113
01 Feb 2016
DEN112
TOR93
28 Dec 2014
DEN102
TOR116
31 Jan 2014
DEN90
TOR100
03 Dec 2012
DEN113
TOR110
27 Jan 2012
DEN96
TOR81
21 Mar 2011
DEN123
TOR90
17 Nov 2009
DEN130
TOR112
02 Dec 2008
DEN132
TOR93
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toronto Raptors winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
98-102
98
102
-4
90avg 109
H15/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
130-110
130
110
+20
139avg 109
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
127-112
127
112
+15
133avg 109
A24/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
119-103
119
103
+16
116avg 109
A26/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
117-96
117
96
+21
121avg 109
H29/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
103-97
103
97
+6
94avg 109
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
124-114
124
114
+10
128avg 109
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
107-117 OT
107
117
-10
98avg 109
H06/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
115-109
115
109
+6
111avg 109
H08/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
142-121
142
121
+21
149avg 109
H10/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-16
26-25
21-30
24-31
38-25
34-24
29-34
29-27
25-20
38-28
32-29
32-35
30-36
31-25
30-26
28-16
28-35
37-20
35-17
17-24
36-20
20-31
27-19
20-27
27-33
31-33
31-23
35-25
32-28
18-37
31-25
21-12
30-28
32-26
28-26
25-29
38-22
40-22
24-44
40-33
226.3Avg total
118.2Scored
108.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (64)114.9110.5225.4+4.369%
Season at home (32)118.8109.3228.1+9.481%
Season away (32)111.0111.8222.7-0.856%
Last 10 (10)118.2108.1226.3+10.180%
Last 5 (5)118.2111.6229.8+6.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)108.5104.5213.0+4.0100%
vs Similar (17)110.6112.2222.8-1.653%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)121.4109.9231.3+11.591%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
125-127
125
127
-2
123avg 108
H15/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
121-93
121
93
+28
113avg 108
H23/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
123-121
123
121
+2
121avg 108
A24/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
130-122
130
122
+8
129avg 108
A27/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
125-136
125
136
-11
117avg 108
H29/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
L
105-120
105
120
-15
98avg 108
H02/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
111-106
111
106
+5
104avg 108
H03/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
L
98-139
98
139
-41
81avg 108
H06/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
113-120
113
120
-7
102avg 108
A08/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
L
118-128 OT
118
128
-10
112avg 108
A10/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-31
36-34
32-36
22-26
30-21
29-27
23-23
39-22
33-22
32-42
31-26
27-31
30-28
31-28
29-31
40-35
34-36
33-30
25-40
33-30
31-28
33-33
19-32
22-27
27-29
25-19
30-27
29-31
28-42
17-26
31-38
22-33
25-39
28-28
29-22
31-31
16-33
30-30
35-29
32-21
238.1Avg total
116.9Scored
121.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (64)114.2118.2232.3-4.036%
Season at home (32)111.2114.0225.2-2.941%
Season away (32)117.2122.3239.5-5.131%
Last 10 (10)116.9121.2238.1-4.340%
Last 5 (5)109.0122.6231.6-13.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)115.0123.1238.1-8.126%
vs Similar (7)112.1117.0229.1-4.943%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: +3.6+3.6Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +1.0+1.0
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.8+4.8Q1: -2.0-2.0Q2Q2: +3.6+3.6Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: +1.2+1.2Q4: +1.0+1.0
Denver NuggetsToronto Raptors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
53-41
53
41
+12
H15/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
72-49
72
49
+23
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
63-48
63
48
+15
A24/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
D
61-61
61
61
+0
A26/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H29/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
50-65
50
65
-15
H06/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H08/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
78-44
78
44
+34
H10/03
NBA
115.2Avg total
61.8Scored
53.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.657.0116.6+2.657%-
Last 30 at home (16)61.453.9115.3+7.475%-
Last 30 away (14)57.660.5118.1-2.936%-
Last 10 (10)61.853.4115.2+8.470%-
Last 5 (5)60.856.0116.8+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)58.557.5116.0+1.050%-
vs Similar (17)58.458.4116.8+0.153%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)61.654.8116.5+6.864%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
71-65
71
65
+6
H15/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
59-48
59
48
+11
H23/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
65-64
65
64
+1
A24/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
61-56
61
56
+5
A27/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H29/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
64-61
64
61
+3
H02/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
52-48
52
48
+4
H03/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
L
45-68
45
68
-23
H06/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
53-67
53
67
-14
A08/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
L
46-63
46
63
-17
A10/03
NBA
118.9Avg total
58.3Scored
60.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.859.8116.6-2.943%-
Last 30 at home (14)57.558.9116.4-1.450%-
Last 30 away (16)56.260.5116.8-4.238%-
Last 10 (10)58.360.6118.9-2.370%-
Last 5 (5)52.061.4113.4-9.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)58.760.4119.2-1.748%-
vs Similar (7)50.657.6108.1-7.029%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 118.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers69.0 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.8 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.334.5
59.2%
54.4%69.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.111.6
37.3%
36.3%34.8
🏀 Free throws17.614.4
81.8%
78.2%14.4
They take 89.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 116.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.0 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.931.5
55.4%
54.4%63.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.313.0
34.9%
36.3%39.0
🏀 Free throws20.214.9
73.8%
78.2%14.9
They take 94.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWLWWWWWWL
Toronto Raptors
LLLWLLWWWL
#3
League position
#25
+10.0
Net rating
-4.1
117.1
Offensive rating
111.5
107.1
Defensive rating
115.6
58.1%
Effective FG%
54.1%
50.4%
Opp. effective FG%
55.2%
12.4%
Turnover %
12.1%
23.8%
Off. rebound %
23.1%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.21
37.3%
3-point %
34.9%
69.0%
Assist %
67.0%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence117.1 · 111.5Defence107.1 · 115.6Shooting58.1% · 54.1%3-point %37.3% · 34.9%Ball care12.4% · 12.1%Off. rebounds23.8% · 23.1%Free throws0.20 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)80% · 40%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Toronto Raptors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Denver Nuggets wins
4
Toronto Raptors wins
DateGameScore
21/12/23Toronto Raptors v Denver Nuggets104-113
14/03/23Toronto Raptors v Denver Nuggets125-110
07/03/23Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors118-113
13/03/22Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors115-127
13/02/22Toronto Raptors v Denver Nuggets109-110
30/04/21Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors121-111
24/03/21Toronto Raptors v Denver Nuggets135-111
14/08/20Toronto Raptors v Denver Nuggets117-109
01/03/20Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors133-118
17/12/18Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors95-86
Denver Nuggetslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/24HUtah Jazz142-121
08/03/24HBoston Celtics115-109
06/03/24HPhoenix Suns107-117 OT
03/03/24ALos Angeles Lakers124-114
01/03/24HMiami Heat103-97
29/02/24HSacramento Kings117-96
26/02/24AGolden State Warriors119-103
24/02/24APortland Trail Blazers127-112
23/02/24HWashington Wizards130-110
15/02/24HSacramento Kings98-102
Toronto Raptorslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/24APortland Trail Blazers118-128 OT
08/03/24APhoenix Suns113-120
06/03/24HNew Orleans Pelicans98-139
03/03/24HCharlotte Hornets111-106
02/03/24HGolden State Warriors105-120
29/02/24HDallas Mavericks125-136
27/02/24AIndiana Pacers130-122
24/02/24AAtlanta Hawks123-121
23/02/24HBrooklyn Nets121-93
15/02/24HIndiana Pacers125-127

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW69%
HomeWWLWW81%
AwayLLWWW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games643232
Win %69%81%56%
Points / game114.9118.8111.0
Allowed / game110.5109.3111.8
Point differential+4.3+9.4-0.8
Avg total225.4228.1222.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%50%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)40% (5)55% (11)
Overtime %2%3%0%
Toronto Raptors
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL36%
HomeWLLWL41%
AwayWWWLL31%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games643232
Win %36%41%31%
Points / game114.2111.2117.2
Allowed / game118.2114.0122.3
Point differential-4.0-2.9-5.1
Avg total232.3225.2239.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%19%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (18)71% (7)27% (11)
Overtime %6%0%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics62491379%120.9109.6+11.3
2 Oklahoma City Thunder64451970%120.8112.9+8.0
3 Denver Nuggets64442069%114.9110.5+4.3
4 Minnesota Timberwolves65442168%113.1106.8+6.3
5 Los Angeles Clippers63412265%117.2112.6+4.6
6 Milwaukee Bucks63412265%120.6116.9+3.7
7 Cleveland Cavaliers65412463%113.7109.7+4.1
8 New Orleans Pelicans62382461%116.7110.6+6.0
9 Phoenix Suns64382659%117.2114.4+2.8
10 New York Knicks63372659%112.2108.2+4.0
11 Sacramento Kings62362658%118.2117.8+0.5
12 Dallas Mavericks65372857%119.1117.8+1.3
13 Orlando Magic65372857%110.6109.4+1.3
14 Philadelphia 76ers64362856%115.9113.0+3.0
15 Miami Heat64352955%110.5109.9+0.6
16 Indiana Pacers63342954%123.0121.6+1.4
17 Golden State Warriors64343053%118.5116.8+1.7
18 Los Angeles Lakers64343053%117.2118.2-1.0
19 Chicago Bulls65313448%111.5113.5-1.9
20 Houston Rockets64293545%113.0112.7+0.3
21 Atlanta Hawks64293545%119.6121.5-1.8
22 Utah Jazz64283644%117.7120.7-3.0
23 Brooklyn Nets65263940%111.9113.9-1.9
24 Toronto Raptors64234136%114.2118.2-4.0
25 Memphis Grizzlies65224334%105.8112.5-6.7
26 Portland Trail Blazers63184529%108.1116.0-7.9
27 Charlotte Hornets65164925%107.1117.3-10.2
28 San Antonio Spurs65145122%112.5120.1-7.7
29 Detroit Pistons64115317%112.4120.8-8.4
30 Washington Wizards64115317%114.4123.9-9.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets32194232125
Toronto Raptors34343021119
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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