PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Denver Nuggets vs Phoenix Suns Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 06 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 03:00
Final 107-117 (OT)
32-28 18-37 31-25 21-12 5-15
Position#3
Record42-19
FormWWWWW
Points / game114.5
Allowed / game110.3
vs
Position#9
Record35-25
FormLWWLL
Points / game117.3
Allowed / game114.6
USANBA· Ball Arena (Denver)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Phoenix Suns
05 Jan 2027
DEN v PHX
upcoming
16 Nov 2026
DEN v PHX
upcoming
25 Oct 2025
DEN133
PHX111
07 Mar 2025
DEN149
PHX141
23 Dec 2024
DEN117
PHX90
27 Mar 2024
DEN97
PHX104
05 Mar 2024
DEN107
PHX117
09 May 2023
DEN118
PHX102
01 May 2023
DEN97
PHX87
29 Apr 2023
DEN125
PHX107
11 Jan 2023
DEN126
PHX97
25 Dec 2022
DEN128
PHX125
24 Mar 2022
DEN130
PHX140
13 Jun 2021
DEN118
PHX125
11 Jun 2021
DEN102
PHX116
01 Jan 2021
DEN103
PHX106
24 Nov 2019
DEN116
PHX104
25 Oct 2019
DEN108
PHX107
25 Jan 2019
DEN132
PHX95
20 Oct 2018
DEN119
PHX91
19 Jan 2018
DEN100
PHX108
03 Jan 2018
DEN134
PHX111
26 Jan 2017
DEN127
PHX120
16 Nov 2016
DEN120
PHX104
10 Mar 2016
DEN116
PHX98
20 Nov 2015
DEN107
PHX114
25 Feb 2015
DEN96
PHX110
28 Nov 2014
DEN122
PHX97
18 Feb 2014
DEN107
PHX112
20 Dec 2013
DEN99
PHX103
17 Apr 2013
DEN118
PHX98
06 Apr 2012
DEN105
PHX99
14 Feb 2012
DEN109
PHX92
20 Dec 2011
DEN127
PHX110
11 Jan 2011
DEN132
PHX98
28 Nov 2010
DEN138
PHX133
03 Feb 2010
DEN97
PHX109
12 Dec 2009
DEN105
PHX99
15 Jan 2009
DEN119
PHX113
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Phoenix Suns winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
114-106
114
106
+8
113avg 109
A09/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
106-135
106
135
-29
96avg 109
A10/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#8
L
95-112
95
112
-17
82avg 109
A13/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
98-102
98
102
-4
90avg 109
H15/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
130-110
130
110
+20
139avg 109
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
127-112
127
112
+15
133avg 109
A24/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
119-103
119
103
+16
116avg 109
A26/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
117-96
117
96
+21
121avg 109
H29/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
103-97
103
97
+6
94avg 109
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
124-114
124
114
+10
128avg 109
A03/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-23
30-26
24-30
31-27
35-32
22-35
29-39
20-29
23-28
21-32
19-31
32-21
27-16
26-25
21-30
24-31
38-25
34-24
29-34
29-27
25-20
38-28
32-29
32-35
30-36
31-25
30-26
28-16
28-35
37-20
35-17
17-24
36-20
20-31
27-19
20-27
27-33
31-33
31-23
35-25
222.0Avg total
113.3Scored
108.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (61)114.5110.3224.8+4.369%
Season at home (29)118.5108.7227.1+9.883%
Season away (32)111.0111.8222.7-0.856%
Last 10 (10)113.3108.7222.0+4.670%
Last 5 (5)118.0104.4222.4+13.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)102.0100.0202.0+2.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (18)110.3112.4222.7-2.156%
vs Weaker (11)121.4108.5229.8+12.991%
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSuns
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#23
W
129-115
129
115
+14
131avg 110
H09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
L
112-113
112
113
-1
104avg 110
A11/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
130-125
130
125
+5
125avg 110
H14/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
116-100
116
100
+16
120avg 110
H15/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
113-123
113
123
-10
103avg 110
A23/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
L
110-114
110
114
-4
101avg 110
A24/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
123-113
123
113
+10
123avg 110
H25/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
110-105
110
105
+5
97avg 110
H01/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
L
109-118
109
118
-9
102avg 110
H03/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
110-118
110
118
-8
105avg 110
H04/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
40-28
35-38
34-24
20-25
28-33
30-26
24-25
30-29
38-39
26-28
30-25
36-33
37-25
33-16
29-28
17-31
33-32
30-28
28-36
22-27
28-20
24-37
24-32
34-25
45-28
27-35
23-27
28-23
33-17
31-36
22-22
24-30
19-38
25-16
35-35
30-29
24-28
28-38
33-23
25-29
230.6Avg total
116.2Scored
114.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (60)117.3114.6231.9+2.858%
Season at home (33)117.1114.3231.4+2.761%
Season away (27)117.7114.9232.5+2.856%
Last 10 (10)116.2114.4230.6+1.850%
Last 5 (5)112.4113.6226.0-1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)110.0118.0228.0-8.00%
vs Similar ◀ (21)117.1114.7231.8+2.462%
vs Weaker (8)124.0112.6236.6+11.475%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q1: +3.7+3.7Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: -1.5-1.5
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +3.0+3.0Q1: +3.7+3.7Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: +0.6+0.6Q4: -1.5-1.5
Denver NuggetsPhoenix Suns
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
59-49
59
49
+10
A09/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
57-67
57
67
-10
A10/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#8
L
44-60
44
60
-16
A13/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
53-41
53
41
+12
H15/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
72-49
72
49
+23
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
63-48
63
48
+15
A24/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
D
61-61
61
61
+0
A26/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H29/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A03/03
NBA
113.5Avg total
58.8Scored
54.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.856.8115.6+2.053%-
Last 30 at home (16)59.953.5113.4+6.469%-
Last 30 away (14)57.660.5118.1-2.936%-
Last 10 (10)58.854.7113.5+4.160%-
Last 5 (5)60.656.2116.8+4.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)55.061.0116.0-6.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)58.057.5115.5+0.550%-
vs Weaker (11)60.555.2115.6+5.364%-
This opponent (Phoenix Suns) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Phoenix SunsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#23
W
75-66
75
66
+9
H09/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
L
58-59
58
59
-1
A11/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H14/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
70-41
70
41
+29
H15/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
63-60
63
60
+3
A23/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
L
52-57
52
57
-5
A24/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
72-63
72
63
+9
H25/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
64-53
64
53
+11
H01/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
L
44-54
44
54
-10
H03/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
52-66
52
66
-14
H04/03
NBA
120.0Avg total
61.4Scored
58.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.858.9120.7+2.960%-
Last 30 at home (16)59.558.9118.4+0.656%-
Last 30 away (14)64.558.9123.4+5.664%-
Last 10 (10)61.458.6120.0+2.850%-
Last 5 (5)56.858.6115.4-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)52.066.0118.0-14.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (21)60.159.2119.3+1.052%-
vs Weaker (8)67.557.2124.8+10.288%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 113.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers65.6 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.932.8
56.6%
54.4%65.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.911.3
35.4%
36.3%33.9
🏀 Free throws17.613.8
78.4%
78.2%13.8
They take 89.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Phoenix Sunstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Phoenix Suns: 116.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.328.8
53.0%
54.4%57.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.712.3
36.5%
36.3%36.9
🏀 Free throws27.421.7
79.2%
78.2%21.7
They take 88.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWWWWWLLLW
Phoenix Suns
LLWWLLWWLW
#3
League position
#9
+4.6
Net rating
+1.7
112.9
Offensive rating
111.4
108.4
Defensive rating
109.6
55.4%
Effective FG%
53.7%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.1%
13.5%
Turnover %
14.7%
25.4%
Off. rebound %
24.7%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.31
35.4%
3-point %
36.5%
70.1%
Assist %
64.7%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence112.9 · 111.4Defence108.4 · 109.6Shooting55.4% · 53.7%3-point %35.4% · 36.5%Ball care13.5% · 14.7%Off. rebounds25.4% · 24.7%Free throws0.20 · 0.31Form (last 10/10)70% · 50%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Phoenix Suns
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Denver Nuggets wins
4
Phoenix Suns wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/03/24ALos Angeles Lakers124-114
01/03/24HMiami Heat103-97
29/02/24HSacramento Kings117-96
26/02/24AGolden State Warriors119-103
24/02/24APortland Trail Blazers127-112
23/02/24HWashington Wizards130-110
15/02/24HSacramento Kings98-102
13/02/24AMilwaukee Bucks95-112
10/02/24ASacramento Kings106-135
09/02/24ALos Angeles Lakers114-106
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/24HOklahoma City Thunder110-118
03/03/24HHouston Rockets109-118
01/03/24HHouston Rockets110-105
25/02/24HLos Angeles Lakers123-113
24/02/24AHouston Rockets110-114
23/02/24ADallas Mavericks113-123
15/02/24HDetroit Pistons116-100
14/02/24HSacramento Kings130-125
11/02/24AGolden State Warriors112-113
09/02/24HUtah Jazz129-115

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW69%
HomeWLWWW83%
AwayLLWWW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games612932
Win %69%83%56%
Points / game114.5118.5111.0
Allowed / game110.3108.7111.8
Point differential+4.3+9.8-0.8
Avg total224.8227.1222.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%52%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)40% (5)55% (11)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Phoenix Suns
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL58%
HomeWWWLL61%
AwayLWLLL56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games603327
Win %58%61%56%
Points / game117.3117.1117.7
Allowed / game114.6114.3114.9
Point differential+2.8+2.7+2.8
Avg total231.9231.4232.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%27%37%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (20)70% (10)50% (10)
Overtime %3%0%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics60481280%121.2109.6+11.6
2 Minnesota Timberwolves62431969%113.3106.5+6.9
3 Oklahoma City Thunder61421969%120.9113.3+7.6
4 Denver Nuggets61421969%114.5110.3+4.3
5 Milwaukee Bucks60402067%121.0116.6+4.4
6 Cleveland Cavaliers61402166%114.2109.4+4.8
7 Los Angeles Clippers60392165%117.2112.5+4.6
8 New Orleans Pelicans60362460%116.9111.0+5.9
9 New York Knicks61362559%113.1109.2+3.9
10 Phoenix Suns60352558%117.3114.6+2.8
11 Orlando Magic62362658%111.3109.5+1.8
12 Sacramento Kings59342558%118.1117.6+0.4
13 Philadelphia 76ers61352657%117.0113.7+3.2
14 Miami Heat61352657%110.8109.9+0.8
15 Dallas Mavericks62342855%118.7118.3+0.4
16 Indiana Pacers61332854%123.4122.2+1.2
17 Golden State Warriors60322853%118.6117.2+1.4
18 Los Angeles Lakers61322952%117.0118.1-1.1
19 Chicago Bulls61293248%111.7113.1-1.4
20 Utah Jazz62283445%117.7120.4-2.7
21 Houston Rockets61273444%112.8112.8+0.0
22 Atlanta Hawks61273444%120.4122.4-2.0
23 Brooklyn Nets62253740%112.0114.1-2.1
24 Toronto Raptors62233937%114.1118.0-3.8
25 Memphis Grizzlies62214134%106.1112.6-6.5
26 Portland Trail Blazers60174328%107.6115.7-8.1
27 Charlotte Hornets62154724%107.3117.7-10.4
28 San Antonio Spurs62134921%112.2120.2-8.0
29 Detroit Pistons6195215%112.1121.0-8.9
30 Washington Wizards6195215%114.6124.7-10.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Denver Nuggets321831215107
Phoenix Suns2837251215117
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.