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Denver Nuggets vs Toronto Raptors Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 21 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 121-115
27-30 30-23 28-41 36-21
Position#6
Record42-28
FormWWLWL
Points / game120.7
Allowed / game116.5
vs
Position#11
Record39-28
FormLLWWW
Points / game114.2
Allowed / game111.8
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Toronto Raptors
04 Nov 2026
DEN v TOR
upcoming
20 Mar 2026
DEN121
TOR115
04 Nov 2024
DEN121
TOR119
11 Mar 2024
DEN125
TOR119
06 Mar 2023
DEN118
TOR113
12 Mar 2022
DEN115
TOR127
29 Apr 2021
DEN121
TOR111
01 Mar 2020
DEN133
TOR118
16 Dec 2018
DEN95
TOR86
01 Nov 2017
DEN129
TOR111
18 Nov 2016
DEN111
TOR113
01 Feb 2016
DEN112
TOR93
28 Dec 2014
DEN102
TOR116
31 Jan 2014
DEN90
TOR100
03 Dec 2012
DEN113
TOR110
27 Jan 2012
DEN96
TOR81
21 Mar 2011
DEN123
TOR90
17 Nov 2009
DEN130
TOR112
02 Dec 2008
DEN132
TOR93
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Toronto Raptors winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
108-117
108
117
-9
99avg 112
H01/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
128-125
128
125
+3
128avg 112
A03/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
120-113
120
113
+7
121avg 112
H06/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
103-142
103
142
-39
93avg 112
H07/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
126-129
126
129
-3
120avg 112
A09/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
129-93
129
93
+36
131avg 112
H12/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
136-131
136
131
+5
134avg 112
A13/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
125-127 OT
125
127
-2
118avg 112
A15/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
124-96
124
96
+28
128avg 112
H18/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
118-125
118
125
-7
117avg 112
A19/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-22
19-36
32-32
26-27
33-34
33-33
34-26
28-32
32-22
32-32
29-32
27-27
29-27
23-38
28-40
23-37
40-37
20-29
33-30
33-33
24-20
29-27
40-22
36-24
25-37
28-32
41-37
42-25
26-34
24-27
37-26
31-31
38-22
34-18
28-31
24-25
30-31
30-29
31-39
27-26
241.5Avg total
121.7Scored
119.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (70)120.7116.5237.2+4.260%
Season at home (32)118.0114.0232.0+4.059%
Season away (38)123.0118.6241.6+4.461%
Last 10 (10)121.7119.8241.5+1.950%
Last 5 (5)126.4114.4240.8+12.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)119.3125.7245.0-6.30%
vs Similar ◀ (15)115.1116.1231.2-1.133%
vs Weaker (12)121.4111.4232.8+10.083%
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRaptors
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
107-110
107
110
-3
94avg 107
H26/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
134-125
134
125
+9
132avg 107
A01/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
95-111
95
111
-16
85avg 107
H04/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
107-115
107
115
-8
98avg 107
A06/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
122-92
122
92
+30
121avg 107
H08/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
99-113
99
113
-14
85avg 107
A11/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
111-122
111
122
-11
94avg 107
A12/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
W
122-115
122
115
+7
118avg 107
H13/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
W
119-108
119
108
+11
112avg 107
H15/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
139-109
139
109
+30
142avg 107
A19/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-30
30-27
31-21
17-32
25-33
36-31
37-28
36-33
31-32
27-36
24-19
13-24
27-31
27-24
22-35
31-25
36-29
21-15
31-22
34-26
29-29
20-29
34-28
16-27
30-29
28-31
25-33
28-29
30-28
29-34
27-30
36-23
33-32
26-32
34-17
26-27
32-17
40-28
36-31
31-33
227.5Avg total
115.5Scored
112.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (67)114.2111.8226.0+2.458%
Season at home (34)113.8111.8225.6+2.056%
Season away (33)114.6111.7226.3+2.961%
Last 10 (10)115.5112.0227.5+3.550%
Last 5 (5)118.0113.4231.4+4.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)104.4112.9217.2-8.525%
vs Similar ◀ (11)114.3117.0231.3-2.736%
vs Weaker (11)120.6105.8226.5+14.891%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: -2.9-2.9Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -1.1-1.1
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +2.2+2.2Q1: +1.2+1.2Q2Q2: -2.9-2.9Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +3.7+3.7Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -1.1-1.1
Denver NuggetsToronto Raptors
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-58
50
58
-8
H01/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
66-67
66
67
-1
A03/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
W
64-54
64
54
+10
H06/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
52-65
52
65
-13
H07/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
60-66
60
66
-6
A09/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H12/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
53-69
53
69
-16
A13/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#7
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A15/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
W
72-40
72
40
+32
H18/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
D
60-60
60
60
+0
A19/03
NBA
116.7Avg total
58.0Scored
58.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.356.1113.4+1.247%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.554.2110.7+2.353%-
Last 30 away (15)58.058.0116.0+0.040%-
Last 10 (10)58.058.7116.7-0.730%-
Last 5 (5)57.655.4113.0+2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)58.059.3117.3-1.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (15)52.956.3109.1-3.440%-
vs Weaker (12)62.655.1117.7+7.558%-
This opponent (Toronto Raptors) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Toronto RaptorsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
59-57
59
57
+2
H26/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
61-64
61
64
-3
A01/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
58-68
58
68
-10
H04/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
54-55
54
55
-1
A06/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
57-44
57
44
+13
H08/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
49-58
49
58
-9
A11/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
58-60
58
60
-2
A12/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
59-62
59
62
-3
H13/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#3
L
59-64
59
64
-5
H15/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
72-45
72
45
+27
A19/03
NBA
116.3Avg total
58.6Scored
57.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.455.8113.1+1.650%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.758.0114.7-1.347%-
Last 30 away (15)58.153.5111.6+4.553%-
Last 10 (10)58.657.7116.3+0.930%-
Last 5 (5)59.457.8117.2+1.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (8)55.560.1115.6-4.638%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)57.755.6113.4+2.155%-
vs Weaker (11)58.452.7111.1+5.655%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 121.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.8 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws23.1 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.628.9
57.1%
54.8%57.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.513.6
38.3%
35.8%40.8
🏀 Free throws28.723.1
80.5%
78.1%23.1
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Toronto Raptorstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Toronto Raptors: 115.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.2 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.532.1
56.8%
54.8%64.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.810.3
34.6%
35.8%30.9
🏀 Free throws25.520.4
80.0%
78.1%20.4
They take 86.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWLWWLLWWL
Toronto Raptors
WWWLLWLLWL
#6
League position
#11
+1.8
Net rating
+3.5
117.7
Offensive rating
116.1
115.8
Defensive rating
112.5
57.3%
Effective FG%
55.1%
56.2%
Opp. effective FG%
56.3%
13.0%
Turnover %
11.7%
21.2%
Off. rebound %
23.6%
0.33
Free-throw rate
0.30
38.3%
3-point %
34.6%
69.9%
Assist %
60.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence117.7 · 116.1Defence115.8 · 112.5Shooting57.3% · 55.1%3-point %38.3% · 34.6%Ball care13.0% · 11.7%Off. rebounds21.2% · 23.6%Free throws0.33 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Toronto Raptors
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Denver Nuggets wins
2
Toronto Raptors wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/26AMemphis Grizzlies118-125
18/03/26HPhiladelphia 76ers124-96
15/03/26ALos Angeles Lakers125-127 OT
13/03/26ASan Antonio Spurs136-131
12/03/26HHouston Rockets129-93
09/03/26AOklahoma City Thunder126-129
07/03/26HNew York Knicks103-142
06/03/26HLos Angeles Lakers120-113
03/03/26AUtah Jazz128-125
01/03/26HMinnesota Timberwolves108-117
DateH/AOpponentScore
19/03/26AChicago Bulls139-109
15/03/26HDetroit Pistons119-108
13/03/26HPhoenix Suns122-115
12/03/26ANew Orleans Pelicans111-122
11/03/26AHouston Rockets99-113
08/03/26HDallas Mavericks122-92
06/03/26AMinnesota Timberwolves107-115
04/03/26HNew York Knicks95-111
01/03/26AWashington Wizards134-125
26/02/26HSan Antonio Spurs107-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL60%
HomeLWLWW59%
AwayWLWLL61%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games703238
Win %60%59%61%
Points / game120.7118.0123.0
Allowed / game116.5114.0118.6
Point differential+4.2+4.0+4.4
Avg total237.2232.0241.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%34%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won48% (25)44% (9)50% (16)
Overtime %10%6%13%
Toronto Raptors
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW58%
HomeLLWWW56%
AwayWLLLW61%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games673433
Win %58%56%61%
Points / game114.2113.8114.6
Allowed / game111.8111.8111.7
Point differential+2.4+2.0+2.9
Avg total226.0225.6226.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%35%42%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)50% (10)100% (2)
Overtime %6%9%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder68541479%118.3107.7+10.6
2 San Antonio Spurs68501874%118.7111.5+7.2
3 Detroit Pistons70511973%117.4109.5+7.8
4 Boston Celtics70472367%114.4107.0+7.4
5 Los Angeles Lakers69452465%116.6114.9+1.7
6 New York Knicks69442564%116.6110.3+6.2
7 Cleveland Cavaliers70432761%119.1114.8+4.3
8 Houston Rockets69422761%113.9109.8+4.1
9 Minnesota Timberwolves71432861%118.6114.8+3.8
10 Denver Nuggets70422860%120.7116.5+4.2
11 Toronto Raptors67392858%114.2111.8+2.4
12 Phoenix Suns69393057%112.6110.8+1.7
13 Orlando Magic67373055%115.4114.3+1.1
14 Miami Heat69383155%120.5117.1+3.3
15 Atlanta Hawks70383254%117.7116.6+1.1
16 Philadelphia 76ers70383254%115.6116.1-0.5
17 Charlotte Hornets70363451%116.0112.2+3.8
18 Portland Trail Blazers71353649%115.1117.1-2.0
19 Los Angeles Clippers70343649%113.2112.7+0.5
20 Golden State Warriors70333747%114.8114.5+0.3
21 Milwaukee Bucks69284141%111.0116.4-5.3
22 Chicago Bulls70284240%115.8120.2-4.4
23 New Orleans Pelicans71254635%115.6119.3-3.7
24 Memphis Grizzlies69244535%115.7118.6-2.9
25 Dallas Mavericks70234733%113.3118.5-5.2
26 Utah Jazz70214930%117.3124.8-7.5
27 Sacramento Kings71185325%110.8121.0-10.2
28 Brooklyn Nets70175324%106.2115.3-9.2
29 Washington Wizards69165323%112.5123.7-11.2
30 Indiana Pacers70155521%111.3120.2-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets27302836121
Toronto Raptors30234121115
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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