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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 07 Nov 2009
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 96-88
23-21 27-17 28-18 18-32
Position#13
Record4-1
FormWWWLW
Points / game99.0
Allowed / game91.2
vs
Position#6
Record5-0
FormWWWWW
Points / game115.4
Allowed / game101.8
USANBA
NBA2009-10
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
107-78
107
78
+29
H25/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
71-81
71
81
-10
H28/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
91-106
91
106
-15
A30/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
98-72
98
72
+26
H02/05
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
78-91
78
91
-13
A03/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#22
W
115-93
115
93
+22
H28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
96-83
96
83
+13
A31/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
95-87
95
87
+8
H01/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#4
L
96-104
96
104
-8
H04/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#27
W
93-89
93
89
+4
A05/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-12
28-17
25-32
32-17
17-24
25-22
13-17
16-18
20-24
20-39
30-22
21-21
32-18
19-24
27-14
20-16
18-20
18-29
16-19
26-23
27-23
29-24
34-15
25-31
28-16
21-31
30-16
17-20
24-27
25-21
20-22
26-17
26-23
26-21
29-31
15-29
31-17
19-24
16-25
27-23
182.4Avg total
94.0Scored
88.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)99.091.2190.2+7.880%
Season at home (3)102.094.7196.7+7.367%
Season away (2)94.586.0180.5+8.5100%
Last 10 (10)94.088.4182.4+5.660%
Last 5 (5)99.091.2190.2+7.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)100.3106.0206.3-5.70%
vs Similar ◀ (22)94.393.4187.6+0.945%
vs Weaker (5)103.290.2193.4+13.0100%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
W
106-103
106
103
+3
A22/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
97-103
97
103
-6
H24/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
W
120-101
120
101
+19
H26/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
94-103
94
103
-9
A28/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
92-119
92
119
-27
H30/05
NBA
Utah Jazz
#7
W
114-105
114
105
+9
H29/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#11
W
97-94
97
94
+3
A30/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
133-123
133
123
+10
H02/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
111-93
111
93
+18
A04/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#30
W
122-94
122
94
+28
A05/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-31
31-24
26-26
26-22
28-26
24-22
27-23
18-32
22-19
30-26
25-21
43-35
25-25
31-31
20-20
18-27
20-25
20-28
27-30
25-36
23-30
31-25
28-25
32-25
24-17
18-26
20-24
35-27
35-40
32-26
36-28
30-29
30-13
25-26
28-32
28-22
22-23
28-28
44-26
28-17
212.4Avg total
108.6Scored
103.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (5)115.4101.8217.2+13.6100%
Season at home (2)123.5114.0237.5+9.5100%
Season away (3)110.093.7203.7+16.3100%
Last 10 (10)108.6103.8212.4+4.870%
Last 5 (5)115.4101.8217.2+13.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (16)105.5105.7211.2-0.256%
vs Weaker (14)115.696.6212.1+19.093%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +1.1+1.1
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: -2.2-2.2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: +1.1+1.1
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
50-29
50
29
+21
H25/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
42-46
42
46
-4
H28/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
40-63
40
63
-23
A30/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H02/05
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
36-49
36
49
-13
A03/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#22
W
56-47
56
47
+9
H28/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A31/10
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
49-48
49
48
+1
H01/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#4
W
52-44
52
44
+8
H04/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#27
W
50-41
50
41
+9
A05/11
NBA
93.1Avg total
47.5Scored
45.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.647.094.5+0.653%-
Last 30 at home (13)49.845.194.8+4.762%-
Last 30 away (17)45.948.494.3-2.547%-
Last 10 (10)47.545.693.1+1.970%-
Last 5 (5)51.245.496.6+5.8100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)48.049.797.7-1.733%-
vs Similar ◀ (22)45.947.092.9-1.045%-
vs Weaker (5)54.645.4100.0+9.2100%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
54-55
54
55
-1
A22/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
W
52-48
52
48
+4
H24/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
W
52-45
52
45
+7
H26/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
D
56-56
56
56
+0
A28/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#2
L
40-53
40
53
-13
H30/05
NBA
Utah Jazz
#7
L
54-55
54
55
-1
H29/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#11
L
42-43
42
43
-1
A30/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
W
67-66
67
66
+1
H02/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
55-39
55
39
+16
A04/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#30
L
50-51
50
51
-1
A05/11
NBA
103.3Avg total
52.2Scored
51.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.850.4105.2+4.460%-
Last 30 at home (17)56.851.6108.4+5.276%-
Last 30 away (13)52.348.8101.2+3.538%-
Last 10 (10)52.251.1103.3+1.140%-
Last 5 (5)53.650.8104.4+2.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (16)52.351.1103.4+1.250%-
vs Weaker (14)57.749.6107.4+8.171%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

No box scores for these teams yet: the shooting profile appears once the data provider has them.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Not enough box scores for both teams yet (the data provider has box scores for the NBA and Europe's top competitions, not every game).

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
0
Miami Heat wins
2
Denver Nuggets wins
DateGameScore
11/02/09Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets82-99
08/01/09Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat108-97
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/09AWashington Wizards93-89
04/11/09HPhoenix Suns96-104
01/11/09HChicago Bulls95-87
31/10/09AIndiana Pacers96-83
28/10/09HNew York Knicks115-93
03/05/09AAtlanta Hawks78-91
02/05/09HAtlanta Hawks98-72
30/04/09AAtlanta Hawks91-106
28/04/09HAtlanta Hawks71-81
25/04/09HAtlanta Hawks107-78
DateH/AOpponentScore
05/11/09ABrooklyn Nets122-94
04/11/09AIndiana Pacers111-93
02/11/09HMemphis Grizzlies133-123
30/10/09APortland Trail Blazers97-94
29/10/09HUtah Jazz114-105
30/05/09HLos Angeles Lakers92-119
28/05/09ALos Angeles Lakers94-103
26/05/09HLos Angeles Lakers120-101
24/05/09HLos Angeles Lakers97-103
22/05/09ALos Angeles Lakers106-103

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2009-10
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW80%
HomeWWL67%
AwayWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532
Win %80%67%100%
Points / game99.0102.094.5
Allowed / game91.294.786.0
Point differential+7.8+7.3+8.5
Avg total190.2196.7180.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%33%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2009-10
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW100%
HomeWW100%
AwayWWW100%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games523
Win %100%100%100%
Points / game115.4123.5110.0
Allowed / game101.8114.093.7
Point differential+13.6+9.5+16.3
Avg total217.2237.5203.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+60%50%67%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics660100%99.881.5+18.3
2 Denver Nuggets550100%115.4101.8+13.6
3 Orlando Magic65183%108.799.2+9.5
4 Miami Heat54180%99.091.2+7.8
5 Phoenix Suns54180%111.2107.6+3.6
6 Los Angeles Lakers54180%100.299.2+1.0
7 Atlanta Hawks64267%103.8102.5+1.3
8 Dallas Mavericks53260%96.293.0+3.2
9 Houston Rockets53260%104.2101.8+2.4
10 Charlotte Hornets53260%84.486.6-2.2
11 Philadelphia 76ers53260%103.4106.4-3.0
12 Chicago Bulls53260%87.692.8-5.2
13 Cleveland Cavaliers63350%93.589.7+3.8
14 San Antonio Spurs42250%102.598.8+3.8
15 Oklahoma City Thunder42250%91.289.0+2.2
16 Toronto Raptors42250%108.5107.5+1.0
17 Portland Trail Blazers52340%94.293.2+1.0
18 Utah Jazz52340%102.0104.0-2.0
19 Indiana Pacers52340%97.6100.4-2.8
20 New Orleans Pelicans52340%101.0105.2-4.2
21 Milwaukee Bucks31233%87.789.0-1.3
22 Detroit Pistons62433%91.893.5-1.7
23 Washington Wizards62433%96.598.7-2.2
24 Golden State Warriors31233%107.0112.0-5.0
25 Los Angeles Clippers51420%94.8100.4-5.6
26 Minnesota Timberwolves51420%94.8100.4-5.6
27 Sacramento Kings51420%101.4108.2-6.8
28 Memphis Grizzlies51420%106.6115.2-8.6
29 New York Knicks51420%105.2114.0-8.8
30 Brooklyn Nets6060%89.7101.8-12.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat2327281896
Denver Nuggets2117183288
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