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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 14 Feb 2023
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 108-112
36-27 26-38 21-24 25-23
Position#10
Record32-25
FormLLWWW
Points / game108.4
Allowed / game108.1
vs
Position#2
Record39-18
FormWLWLW
Points / game117.2
Allowed / game112.9
USANBA· Miami-Dade Arena
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
100-96
100
96
+4
89avg 100
H22/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
98-95
98
95
+3
84avg 100
H25/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
W
110-105
110
105
+5
103avg 100
H28/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
L
117-122
117
122
-5
104avg 100
A29/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
W
100-97
100
97
+3
93avg 100
A01/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
104-106
104
106
-2
91avg 100
A03/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
115-123
115
123
-8
99avg 100
A05/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
116-111
116
111
+5
113avg 100
H09/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#28
W
97-95
97
95
+2
90avg 100
H11/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
W
107-103 OT
107
103
+4
101avg 100
A12/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-32
18-15
28-25
31-24
32-30
18-28
25-24
23-13
26-31
24-28
23-20
37-26
28-26
34-32
24-33
31-31
24-26
31-26
24-27
21-18
22-28
26-23
24-26
32-29
26-34
36-28
30-32
23-29
39-30
21-33
29-20
27-28
28-29
30-27
17-17
22-22
19-29
27-25
26-25
25-18
211.7Avg total
106.4Scored
105.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (57)108.4108.1216.5+0.356%
Season at home (28)108.7107.0215.7+1.768%
Season away (29)108.1109.2217.3-1.045%
Last 10 (10)106.4105.3211.7+1.170%
Last 5 (5)107.8107.6215.4+0.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)105.7105.3211.0+0.367%
vs Similar (23)108.4106.1214.5+2.365%
vs Weaker (4)109.0106.5215.5+2.575%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
99-98
99
98
+1
93avg 114
A25/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
99-107
99
107
-8
85avg 114
A26/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
119-126
119
126
-7
116avg 114
A28/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
122-113
122
113
+9
122avg 114
H01/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
134-117
134
117
+17
133avg 114
H03/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
128-108
128
108
+20
126avg 114
H05/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
L
98-128
98
128
-30
91avg 114
A06/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
W
146-112
146
112
+34
155avg 114
H08/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
L
104-115
104
115
-11
94avg 114
A10/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
119-105
119
105
+14
118avg 114
A12/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-24
35-23
20-27
16-24
27-26
26-32
20-23
26-26
38-29
35-29
26-38
20-30
31-35
26-25
36-24
29-29
34-35
36-34
35-22
29-26
35-30
35-22
27-34
31-22
21-32
22-31
28-31
27-34
49-19
30-29
31-27
36-37
26-29
29-36
29-24
20-26
27-34
30-26
37-23
25-22
229.7Avg total
116.8Scored
112.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (57)117.2112.9230.0+4.368%
Season at home (30)121.4109.4230.8+12.087%
Season away (27)112.4116.7229.1-4.348%
Last 10 (10)116.8112.9229.7+3.960%
Last 5 (5)119.0113.6232.6+5.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (15)116.3110.8227.1+5.567%
vs Weaker ◀ (15)120.2112.3232.5+7.980%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.8-2.8Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: -1.7-1.7
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -2.8-2.8Q1: +2.3+2.3Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: +0.1+0.1Q3: +1.6+1.6Q4Q4: +3.4+3.4Q4: -1.7-1.7
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
L
41-47
41
47
-6
H22/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
50-58
50
58
-8
H25/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
L
50-59
50
59
-9
H28/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
62-58
62
58
+4
A29/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
W
55-52
55
52
+3
A01/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
48-51
48
51
-3
A03/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
D
62-62
62
62
+0
A05/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
L
60-63
60
63
-3
H09/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#28
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H11/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
L
46-54
46
54
-8
A12/02
NBA
109.2Avg total
53.2Scored
56.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.154.7110.8+1.553%-
Last 30 at home (13)55.354.7110.0+0.654%-
Last 30 away (17)56.854.6111.4+2.153%-
Last 10 (10)53.256.0109.2-2.830%-
Last 5 (5)54.857.2112.0-2.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)54.056.7110.7-2.733%-
vs Similar (23)55.854.3110.1+1.552%-
vs Weaker (4)59.555.2114.8+4.275%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
63-47
63
47
+16
A25/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
53-58
53
58
-5
A26/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
73-58
73
58
+15
A28/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
L
57-60
57
60
-3
H01/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
70-69
70
69
+1
H03/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
70-52
70
52
+18
H05/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
L
43-63
43
63
-20
A06/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
W
79-48
79
48
+31
H08/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#25
L
55-65
55
65
-10
A10/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
L
57-60
57
60
-3
A12/02
NBA
120.0Avg total
62.0Scored
58.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.856.0116.8+4.760%-
Last 30 at home (19)62.254.3116.5+7.974%-
Last 30 away (11)58.359.1117.4-0.836%-
Last 10 (10)62.058.0120.0+4.050%-
Last 5 (5)60.857.6118.4+3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (15)60.855.8116.6+5.067%-
vs Weaker ◀ (15)60.756.3117.0+4.553%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 106.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.5 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.427.2
50.9%
54.5%54.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.510.5
32.3%
35.8%31.5
🏀 Free throws24.520.5
83.7%
78.1%20.5
They take 85.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 116.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers65.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.3 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.932.7
58.5%
54.5%65.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.811.7
36.8%
35.8%35.1
🏀 Free throws20.816.3
78.4%
78.1%16.3
They take 87.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Feb 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWLLWLWWW
Denver Nuggets
WLWLWWWLLW
#10
League position
#2
+1.1
Net rating
+3.8
107.2
Offensive rating
113.9
106.1
Defensive rating
110.0
50.0%
Effective FG%
57.3%
54.6%
Opp. effective FG%
55.1%
12.7%
Turnover %
14.3%
23.0%
Off. rebound %
21.8%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.24
32.3%
3-point %
36.8%
59.9%
Assist %
67.1%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence107.2 · 113.9Defence106.1 · 110.0Shooting50.0% · 57.3%3-point %32.3% · 36.8%Ball care12.7% · 14.3%Off. rebounds23.0% · 21.8%Free throws0.29 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)70% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Miami Heat wins
8
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/02/23AOrlando Magic107-103 OT
11/02/23HHouston Rockets97-95
09/02/23HIndiana Pacers116-111
05/02/23AMilwaukee Bucks115-123
03/02/23ANew York Knicks104-106
01/02/23ACleveland Cavaliers100-97
29/01/23ACharlotte Hornets117-122
28/01/23HOrlando Magic110-105
25/01/23HBoston Celtics98-95
22/01/23HNew Orleans Pelicans100-96
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/02/23ACharlotte Hornets119-105
10/02/23AOrlando Magic104-115
08/02/23HMinnesota Timberwolves146-112
06/02/23AMinnesota Timberwolves98-128
05/02/23HAtlanta Hawks128-108
03/02/23HGolden State Warriors134-117
01/02/23HNew Orleans Pelicans122-113
28/01/23APhiladelphia 76ers119-126
26/01/23AMilwaukee Bucks99-107
25/01/23ANew Orleans Pelicans99-98

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW56%
HomeWWWWW68%
AwayLWLLW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games572829
Win %56%68%45%
Points / game108.4108.7108.1
Allowed / game108.1107.0109.2
Point differential+0.3+1.7-1.0
Avg total216.5215.7217.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%11%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won65% (31)76% (17)50% (14)
Overtime %7%4%10%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW68%
HomeLWWWW87%
AwayLLLLW48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games573027
Win %68%87%48%
Points / game117.2121.4112.4
Allowed / game112.9109.4116.7
Point differential+4.3+12.0-4.3
Avg total230.0230.8229.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%57%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won72% (18)64% (11)86% (7)
Overtime %4%3%4%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics57411672%117.6111.4+6.1
2 Milwaukee Bucks56391770%114.6111.6+3.0
3 Denver Nuggets57391868%117.2112.9+4.3
4 Philadelphia 76ers56371966%114.3110.4+3.9
5 Cleveland Cavaliers60382263%111.8105.9+5.8
6 Memphis Grizzlies56342261%116.1112.2+3.9
7 Brooklyn Nets56332359%114.1112.2+1.9
8 Sacramento Kings56322457%119.6117.1+2.5
9 Miami Heat57322556%108.4108.1+0.3
10 New York Knicks58312753%114.3112.6+1.6
11 Phoenix Suns58312753%112.7111.3+1.4
12 Dallas Mavericks58312753%112.9112.2+0.7
13 Los Angeles Clippers59312853%111.0111.0+0.0
14 New Orleans Pelicans57292851%115.3113.6+1.7
15 Minnesota Timberwolves59302951%115.7115.7+0.0
16 Golden State Warriors56282850%118.2118.1+0.1
17 Atlanta Hawks58292950%116.7116.7+0.0
18 Utah Jazz59293049%117.7117.2+0.4
19 Oklahoma City Thunder55272849%117.9116.9+1.1
20 Portland Trail Blazers56272948%114.9114.8+0.1
21 Washington Wizards55262947%113.2113.3-0.1
22 Toronto Raptors58273147%113.2112.4+0.7
23 Chicago Bulls56263046%113.7113.6+0.1
24 Los Angeles Lakers57263146%117.0118.3-1.3
25 Indiana Pacers59253442%114.5117.2-2.7
26 Orlando Magic57233440%111.1113.9-2.8
27 Charlotte Hornets59164327%112.4119.1-6.7
28 Detroit Pistons58154326%112.3119.7-7.4
29 San Antonio Spurs58144424%112.5122.7-10.2
30 Houston Rockets57134423%110.0117.9-7.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat36262125108
Denver Nuggets27382423112
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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