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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 13 Mar 2024
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 88-100
19-26 25-24 27-22 17-28
Position#18
Record35-29
FormWWLLL
Points / game110.5
Allowed / game109.9
vs
Position#3
Record45-20
FormWLWWW
Points / game115.0
Allowed / game110.7
USANBA· Kaseya Center (Miami)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
W
109-104
109
104
+5
104avg 103
A15/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
106-95
106
95
+11
98avg 103
A24/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
121-110
121
110
+11
114avg 103
A27/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
106-96
106
96
+10
106avg 103
A28/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#3
L
97-103
97
103
-6
88avg 103
A01/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
126-120
126
120
+6
121avg 103
H02/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
118-110
118
110
+8
114avg 103
H06/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
L
108-114
108
114
-6
104avg 103
A08/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
100-107
100
107
-7
94avg 103
A09/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
L
108-110
108
110
-2
96avg 103
H10/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-33
27-29
23-20
26-22
31-24
27-34
26-22
22-15
32-33
33-29
36-19
20-29
15-28
31-28
34-20
26-20
20-36
31-20
19-27
27-20
30-34
28-28
32-28
36-30
36-26
25-34
32-28
25-22
36-28
22-26
25-37
25-23
29-27
28-20
16-30
27-30
27-25
27-23
28-33
26-29
216.8Avg total
109.9Scored
106.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (64)110.5109.9220.4+0.655%
Season at home (31)113.5113.0226.5+0.555%
Season away (33)107.7107.0214.7+0.755%
Last 10 (10)109.9106.9216.8+3.060%
Last 5 (5)112.0112.2224.2-0.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)109.0122.0231.0-13.00%
vs Similar ◀ (17)106.8105.9212.8+0.953%
vs Weaker (9)109.0106.1215.1+2.967%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#29
W
130-110
130
110
+20
139avg 109
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
127-112
127
112
+15
133avg 109
A24/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
119-103
119
103
+16
116avg 109
A26/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
117-96
117
96
+21
121avg 109
H29/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
103-97
103
97
+6
94avg 109
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
124-114
124
114
+10
128avg 109
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
107-117 OT
107
117
-10
98avg 109
H06/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
115-109
115
109
+6
111avg 109
H08/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
142-121
142
121
+21
149avg 109
H10/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
125-119
125
119
+6
123avg 109
H12/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
38-25
34-24
29-34
29-27
25-20
38-28
32-29
32-35
30-36
31-25
30-26
28-16
28-35
37-20
35-17
17-24
36-20
20-31
27-19
20-27
27-33
31-33
31-23
35-25
32-28
18-37
31-25
21-12
30-28
32-26
28-26
25-29
38-22
40-22
24-44
40-33
32-34
19-34
42-30
32-21
230.7Avg total
120.9Scored
109.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (65)115.0110.7225.7+4.469%
Season at home (33)118.9109.6228.5+9.382%
Season away (32)111.0111.8222.7-0.856%
Last 10 (10)120.9109.8230.7+11.190%
Last 5 (5)122.6116.0238.6+6.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)108.5104.5213.0+4.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (17)110.6112.2222.8-1.653%
vs Weaker (11)122.6112.3234.9+10.491%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +3.5+3.5Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +3.6+3.6Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: +3.0+3.0
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: +3.5+3.5Q2Q2: +0.8+0.8Q2: +2.0+2.0Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: +3.6+3.6Q4Q4: +2.0+2.0Q4: +3.0+3.0
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
60-62
60
62
-2
A15/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
D
58-58
58
58
+0
A24/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
65-62
65
62
+3
A27/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
L
46-56
46
56
-10
A28/02
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#3
L
51-56
51
56
-5
A01/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
L
58-62
58
62
-4
H02/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
61-60
61
60
+1
H06/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
58-54
58
54
+4
A08/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
57-47
57
47
+10
A09/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
54-48
54
48
+6
H10/03
NBA
113.3Avg total
56.8Scored
56.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.256.1110.3-1.840%-
Last 30 at home (16)55.155.1110.2-0.150%-
Last 30 away (14)53.357.1110.4-3.929%-
Last 10 (10)56.856.5113.3+0.350%-
Last 5 (5)57.654.2111.8+3.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)60.062.0122.0-2.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)54.255.3109.5-1.135%-
vs Weaker (9)51.754.9106.6-3.244%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#29
W
72-49
72
49
+23
H23/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
63-48
63
48
+15
A24/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
D
61-61
61
61
+0
A26/02
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H29/02
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
50-65
50
65
-15
H06/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
62-54
62
54
+8
H08/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
W
78-44
78
44
+34
H10/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
51-68
51
68
-17
H12/03
NBA
117.7Avg total
61.6Scored
56.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.757.6117.3+2.057%-
Last 30 at home (16)61.555.1116.6+6.475%-
Last 30 away (14)57.660.5118.1-2.936%-
Last 10 (10)61.656.1117.7+5.560%-
Last 5 (5)59.859.4119.2+0.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)58.557.5116.0+1.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)58.458.4116.8+0.153%-
vs Weaker (11)61.856.5118.4+5.364%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 109.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.128.5
53.7%
54.4%57.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.112.1
38.9%
36.3%36.3
🏀 Free throws21.616.6
76.9%
78.2%16.6
They take 84.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 120.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀11%
🏀🏀 2-pointers72.2 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.6 pts a game · 11% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.636.1
61.6%
54.4%72.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.411.7
37.3%
36.3%35.1
🏀 Free throws17.213.6
79.1%
78.2%13.6
They take 90.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Mar 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLLWWLWWWW
Denver Nuggets
WWWLWWWWWW
#18
League position
#3
+3.1
Net rating
+11.0
112.8
Offensive rating
119.7
109.7
Defensive rating
108.7
55.4%
Effective FG%
59.6%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
51.1%
12.2%
Turnover %
12.1%
21.0%
Off. rebound %
24.1%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.19
38.9%
3-point %
37.3%
63.5%
Assist %
68.4%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
90%

Profile

Offence112.8 · 119.7Defence109.7 · 108.7Shooting55.4% · 59.6%3-point %38.9% · 37.3%Ball care12.2% · 12.1%Off. rebounds21.0% · 24.1%Free throws0.26 · 0.19Form (last 10/10)60% · 90%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Miami Heat wins
9
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/24HWashington Wizards108-110
09/03/24AOklahoma City Thunder100-107
08/03/24ADallas Mavericks108-114
06/03/24HDetroit Pistons118-110
02/03/24HUtah Jazz126-120
01/03/24ADenver Nuggets97-103
28/02/24APortland Trail Blazers106-96
27/02/24ASacramento Kings121-110
24/02/24ANew Orleans Pelicans106-95
15/02/24APhiladelphia 76ers109-104
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/03/24HToronto Raptors125-119
10/03/24HUtah Jazz142-121
08/03/24HBoston Celtics115-109
06/03/24HPhoenix Suns107-117 OT
03/03/24ALos Angeles Lakers124-114
01/03/24HMiami Heat103-97
29/02/24HSacramento Kings117-96
26/02/24AGolden State Warriors119-103
24/02/24APortland Trail Blazers127-112
23/02/24HWashington Wizards130-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL55%
HomeWLWWL55%
AwayWWLLL55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games643133
Win %55%55%55%
Points / game110.5113.5107.7
Allowed / game109.9113.0107.0
Point differential+0.6+0.5+0.7
Avg total220.4226.5214.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%16%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won53% (15)44% (9)67% (6)
Overtime %2%0%3%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 9 Wins / 1 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW69%
HomeWLWWW82%
AwayLLWWW56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games653332
Win %69%82%56%
Points / game115.0118.9111.0
Allowed / game110.7109.6111.8
Point differential+4.4+9.3-0.8
Avg total225.7228.5222.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+31%48%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)40% (5)55% (11)
Overtime %2%3%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics64511380%120.9109.4+11.5
2 Oklahoma City Thunder65452069%120.7113.0+7.7
3 Denver Nuggets65452069%115.0110.7+4.4
4 Minnesota Timberwolves66452168%113.2106.7+6.5
5 Los Angeles Clippers64412364%116.9112.7+4.2
6 Milwaukee Bucks64412364%120.1117.0+3.1
7 Cleveland Cavaliers65412463%113.7109.7+4.1
8 New Orleans Pelicans62382461%116.7110.6+6.0
9 New York Knicks64382659%112.1107.7+4.4
10 Phoenix Suns64382659%117.2114.4+2.8
11 Sacramento Kings63372659%118.4117.4+1.0
12 Orlando Magic66382858%110.7109.3+1.4
13 Dallas Mavericks65372857%119.1117.8+1.3
14 Philadelphia 76ers65362955%115.3112.8+2.5
15 Indiana Pacers64352955%123.0121.5+1.5
16 Miami Heat64352955%110.5109.9+0.6
17 Golden State Warriors64343053%118.5116.8+1.7
18 Los Angeles Lakers64343053%117.2118.2-1.0
19 Chicago Bulls65313448%111.5113.5-1.9
20 Houston Rockets65303546%112.8112.5+0.3
21 Atlanta Hawks64293545%119.6121.5-1.8
22 Utah Jazz65283743%117.6120.7-3.2
23 Brooklyn Nets66264039%111.8113.9-2.0
24 Toronto Raptors66234335%114.1118.2-4.1
25 Memphis Grizzlies66234335%105.8112.3-6.4
26 Portland Trail Blazers64184628%108.0116.1-8.1
27 Charlotte Hornets65164925%107.1117.3-10.2
28 San Antonio Spurs66145221%112.3119.9-7.6
29 Detroit Pistons65125318%112.4120.5-8.1
30 Washington Wizards65115417%114.2123.7-9.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat1925271788
Denver Nuggets26242228100
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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