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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 19 Mar 2018
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 149-141 (OT)
36-37 28-26 28-28 26-27 31-23
Position#16
Record37-33
FormWWLLW
Points / game102.5
Allowed / game102.5
vs
Position#12
Record38-32
FormWWLWL
Points / game109.0
Allowed / game107.9
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2017-18
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
102-101
102
101
+1
88avg 93
H28/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#21
L
113-131
113
131
-18
99avg 93
H02/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
105-96
105
96
+9
95avg 93
H04/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#30
W
125-103
125
103
+22
126avg 93
H06/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
L
113-117 OT
113
117
-4
100avg 93
A07/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
108-99
108
99
+9
102avg 93
H09/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
W
129-102
129
102
+27
126avg 93
H11/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#10
L
99-115
99
115
-16
89avg 93
A13/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#24
L
119-123 OT
119
123
-4
110avg 93
A15/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#21
W
92-91
92
91
+1
77avg 93
A17/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-24
28-24
28-27
29-26
36-33
26-40
32-31
19-27
27-28
32-18
15-24
31-26
30-27
31-21
32-32
32-23
26-31
24-28
30-27
25-19
29-28
24-21
20-25
35-25
26-20
34-28
43-28
26-26
25-34
22-25
25-29
27-27
31-24
21-35
27-32
32-20
25-24
25-26
24-21
18-20
218.3Avg total
110.5Scored
107.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (70)102.5102.5204.9+0.053%
Season at home (33)103.1101.9205.0+1.261%
Season away (37)101.9102.9204.9-1.046%
Last 10 (10)110.5107.8218.3+2.760%
Last 5 (5)109.4106.0215.4+3.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)101.7104.3206.0-2.629%
vs Similar ◀ (17)104.1102.0206.1+2.159%
vs Weaker (6)111.2105.7216.8+5.533%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#17
L
120-122
120
122
-2
113avg 103
H28/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#29
W
108-102
108
102
+6
102avg 103
A03/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
W
126-117
126
117
+9
126avg 103
A04/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#27
L
107-118
107
118
-11
96avg 103
A07/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
L
108-113
108
113
-5
104avg 103
H08/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#21
W
125-116
125
116
+9
121avg 103
H10/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#24
W
130-104
130
104
+26
137avg 103
H11/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#21
L
103-112
103
112
-9
96avg 103
A14/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
120-113
120
113
+7
116avg 103
H16/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#29
L
94-101
94
101
-7
79avg 103
A18/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-24
25-28
30-29
32-41
35-29
28-25
28-26
17-22
37-31
36-31
30-35
23-20
25-29
37-29
23-38
22-22
23-38
35-32
29-19
21-24
37-28
28-34
29-34
31-20
32-25
34-24
35-19
29-36
22-35
25-13
35-29
21-35
33-29
32-22
33-33
22-29
17-34
31-19
27-31
19-17
225.9Avg total
114.1Scored
111.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (70)109.0107.9216.9+1.254%
Season at home (37)112.2106.1218.3+6.273%
Season away (33)105.5109.9215.4-4.533%
Last 10 (10)114.1111.8225.9+2.350%
Last 5 (5)114.4109.2223.6+5.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)111.0119.0230.0-8.033%
vs Similar ◀ (16)114.1113.2227.2+0.956%
vs Weaker (11)106.5103.9210.5+2.664%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +5.4+5.4Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +3.5+3.5Q4: -2.9-2.9
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: +5.4+5.4Q3Q3: +0.0+0.0Q3: +0.6+0.6Q4Q4: +3.5+3.5Q4: -2.9-2.9
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
45-48
45
48
-3
H28/02
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#21
L
62-73
62
73
-11
H02/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H04/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#30
W
61-48
61
48
+13
H06/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
L
50-59
50
59
-9
A07/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
53-49
53
49
+4
H09/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
W
60-48
60
48
+12
H11/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#10
L
47-59
47
59
-12
A13/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#24
L
52-59
52
59
-7
A15/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#21
D
50-50
50
50
+0
A17/03
NBA
107.8Avg total
53.9Scored
53.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.951.4104.3+1.450%-
Last 30 at home (13)53.951.4105.3+2.554%-
Last 30 away (17)52.151.5103.5+0.647%-
Last 10 (10)53.953.9107.8+0.040%-
Last 5 (5)52.453.0105.4-0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)51.950.1102.0+1.743%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)52.651.3103.9+1.453%-
vs Weaker (6)54.753.3108.0+1.350%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#17
W
58-52
58
52
+6
H28/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#29
W
63-54
63
54
+9
A03/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
W
73-62
73
62
+11
A04/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#27
W
62-58
62
58
+4
A07/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
L
58-70
58
70
-12
H08/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#21
W
65-62
65
62
+3
H10/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#24
W
66-49
66
49
+17
H11/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#21
L
47-48
47
48
-1
A14/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
65-51
65
51
+14
H16/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#29
L
48-53
48
53
-5
A18/03
NBA
116.4Avg total
60.5Scored
55.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.456.3113.7+1.153%-
Last 30 at home (19)57.355.9113.2+1.353%-
Last 30 away (11)57.556.9114.5+0.655%-
Last 10 (10)60.555.9116.4+4.670%-
Last 5 (5)58.252.6110.8+5.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)51.061.7112.7-10.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)59.057.4116.4+1.656%-
vs Weaker (11)56.753.2109.9+3.564%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 110.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 106.1 points a game
55%
30%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.630.5
52.0%
51.0%61.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.011.3
35.3%
36.1%33.9
🏀 Free throws21.215.6
73.6%
76.5%15.6
They take 90.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 34%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 114.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 106.1 points a game
55%
30%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.429.5
55.2%
51.0%59.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.012.0
37.5%
36.1%36.0
🏀 Free throws24.219.1
78.9%
76.5%19.1
They take 85.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 34%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 19 Mar 2018 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLLWWLWWLW
Denver Nuggets
LWLWWLLWWL
#16
League position
#12
+2.7
Net rating
+2.3
109.4
Offensive rating
113.3
106.7
Defensive rating
111.1
52.4%
Effective FG%
55.6%
53.1%
Opp. effective FG%
53.6%
12.2%
Turnover %
14.4%
25.5%
Off. rebound %
23.1%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.28
35.3%
3-point %
37.5%
58.9%
Assist %
63.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.4 · 113.3Defence106.7 · 111.1Shooting52.4% · 55.6%3-point %35.3% · 37.5%Ball care12.2% · 14.4%Off. rebounds25.5% · 23.1%Free throws0.23 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
17/03/18ALos Angeles Lakers92-91
15/03/18ASacramento Kings119-123 OT
13/03/18APortland Trail Blazers99-115
11/03/18HWashington Wizards129-102
09/03/18HPhiladelphia 76ers108-99
07/03/18AWashington Wizards113-117 OT
06/03/18HPhoenix Suns125-103
04/03/18HDetroit Pistons105-96
02/03/18HLos Angeles Lakers113-131
28/02/18HPhiladelphia 76ers102-101
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/03/18AMemphis Grizzlies94-101
16/03/18HDetroit Pistons120-113
14/03/18ALos Angeles Lakers103-112
11/03/18HSacramento Kings130-104
10/03/18HLos Angeles Lakers125-116
08/03/18HCleveland Cavaliers108-113
07/03/18ADallas Mavericks107-118
04/03/18ACleveland Cavaliers126-117
03/03/18AMemphis Grizzlies108-102
28/02/18HLos Angeles Clippers120-122

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2017-18
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW53%
HomeLWWWW61%
AwayLLLLW46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games703337
Win %53%61%46%
Points / game102.5103.1101.9
Allowed / game102.5101.9102.9
Point differential+0.0+1.2-1.0
Avg total204.9205.0204.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%21%14%
Close games (≤5 pts) won56% (25)70% (10)47% (15)
Overtime %7%6%8%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2017-18
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL54%
HomeLLWWW73%
AwayWWLLL33%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games703733
Win %54%73%33%
Points / game109.0112.2105.5
Allowed / game107.9106.1109.9
Point differential+1.2+6.2-4.5
Avg total216.9218.3215.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%30%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (18)54% (13)20% (5)
Overtime %4%3%6%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Houston Rockets70561480%113.6104.7+8.9
2 Golden State Warriors70531776%115.5107.6+7.9
3 Toronto Raptors70521874%112.5103.9+8.6
4 Boston Celtics70472367%104.3100.4+3.9
5 Portland Trail Blazers70442663%106.0103.0+3.0
6 Oklahoma City Thunder72432960%107.4104.1+3.3
7 Cleveland Cavaliers70412959%110.5110.2+0.3
8 Indiana Pacers71413058%105.8104.3+1.5
9 Utah Jazz70403057%103.199.8+3.3
10 San Antonio Spurs70403057%102.499.3+3.1
11 Washington Wizards70403057%107.5106.1+1.4
12 New Orleans Pelicans70403057%111.7111.1+0.5
13 Philadelphia 76ers69393057%108.1105.6+2.5
14 Minnesota Timberwolves71403156%109.8107.6+2.2
15 Denver Nuggets70383254%109.0107.9+1.2
16 Los Angeles Clippers69373254%109.3108.3+1.0
17 Miami Heat70373353%102.5102.5+0.0
18 Milwaukee Bucks70373353%105.6106.0-0.4
19 Los Angeles Lakers70313944%108.3109.9-1.6
20 Detroit Pistons69303943%102.6104.3-1.7
21 Charlotte Hornets71304142%107.0107.9-0.9
22 New York Knicks70254536%104.3107.7-3.5
23 Chicago Bulls69244535%103.7109.5-5.9
24 Sacramento Kings71234832%99.5107.1-7.5
25 Dallas Mavericks70224831%102.6105.0-2.4
26 Brooklyn Nets70224831%106.1110.3-4.2
27 Orlando Magic70214930%104.7109.3-4.7
28 Atlanta Hawks70205029%104.0109.2-5.2
29 Memphis Grizzlies69195028%98.8104.0-5.3
30 Phoenix Suns71195227%104.4113.9-9.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Miami Heat3628282631149
Denver Nuggets3726282723141
← all games of the day
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