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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 30 Nov 2021
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 111-120
23-32 20-31 35-32 33-25
Position#4
Record13-7
FormWLWLW
Points / game108.7
Allowed / game102.5
vs
Position#11
Record9-10
FormLLLLL
Points / game102.8
Allowed / game103.5
USANBA· FTX Arena
NBA2021-22
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#23
L
117-120 OT
117
120
-3
104avg 102
A11/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
109-112
109
112
-3
95avg 102
A12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
111-105
111
105
+6
108avg 102
A13/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
W
103-90
103
90
+13
98avg 102
A16/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
113-98
113
98
+15
108avg 102
H18/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#21
W
112-97
112
97
+15
109avg 102
H19/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#21
L
100-103
100
103
-3
90avg 102
A21/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#28
W
100-92
100
92
+8
98avg 102
A24/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
L
101-113
101
113
-12
96avg 102
A25/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
107-104
107
104
+3
94avg 102
A28/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-28
32-27
29-27
26-30
40-25
18-31
20-30
31-26
27-24
31-24
37-21
16-36
23-24
20-19
31-24
29-23
21-34
26-18
34-18
32-28
21-19
26-21
36-30
29-27
25-26
18-15
32-30
25-32
20-25
26-28
21-23
33-16
27-30
35-24
20-32
19-27
27-20
22-26
23-28
35-30
210.7Avg total
107.3Scored
103.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)108.7102.5211.2+6.265%
Season at home (7)111.398.4209.7+12.986%
Season away (13)107.3104.6211.9+2.754%
Last 10 (10)107.3103.4210.7+3.960%
Last 5 (5)104.0101.8205.8+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)101.0115.0216.0-14.017%
vs Similar ◀ (12)115.0107.8222.8+7.275%
vs Weaker (12)107.8101.6209.4+6.267%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#4
W
113-96
113
96
+17
108avg 106
H09/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
W
101-98
101
98
+3
88avg 106
H11/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#17
W
105-96
105
96
+9
99avg 106
H13/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#25
W
124-95
124
95
+29
123avg 106
H15/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#7
L
101-111
101
111
-10
93avg 106
A16/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#8
L
89-103
89
103
-14
77avg 106
H19/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
L
108-114
108
114
-6
100avg 106
H20/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#1
L
97-126
97
126
-29
79avg 106
A22/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#25
L
100-119
100
119
-19
96avg 106
A24/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
109-120
109
120
-11
92avg 106
H27/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-25
34-24
27-21
22-26
23-20
21-24
25-21
32-33
32-25
17-21
30-23
26-27
33-18
34-35
24-26
33-16
32-35
26-14
25-30
18-32
23-24
29-34
17-29
20-16
30-30
22-23
26-35
30-26
28-48
32-25
18-27
19-26
27-33
25-33
27-24
21-29
16-27
31-31
26-32
36-30
212.5Avg total
104.7Scored
107.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)102.8103.5206.3-0.747%
Season at home (11)103.598.7202.3+4.864%
Season away (8)101.8110.1211.9-8.425%
Last 10 (10)104.7107.8212.5-3.140%
Last 5 (5)100.6116.4217.0-15.80%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)103.5112.0215.5-8.550%
vs Similar ◀ (24)107.9111.3219.2-3.438%
vs Weaker (4)105.0101.5206.5+3.575%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -2.3-2.3Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: -0.4-0.4
-3-2+0+2+3Q1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q2Q2: +2.1+2.1Q2: +0.7+0.7Q3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q3: -2.3-2.3Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: -0.4-0.4
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#23
W
57-55
57
55
+2
A11/11
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
58-56
58
56
+2
A12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
58-48
58
48
+10
A13/11
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A16/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
L
47-52
47
52
-5
H18/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#21
W
47-40
47
40
+7
H19/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#21
W
43-41
43
41
+2
A21/11
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#28
L
46-53
46
53
-7
A24/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
W
62-54
62
54
+8
A25/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A28/11
NBA
99.8Avg total
51.0Scored
48.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.152.3107.4+2.863%-
Last 30 at home (11)54.048.1102.1+5.973%-
Last 30 away (19)55.754.7110.5+1.058%-
Last 10 (10)51.048.899.8+2.270%-
Last 5 (5)49.446.896.2+2.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)52.058.0110.0-6.033%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)60.452.9113.3+7.575%-
vs Weaker (12)51.348.8100.2+2.567%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#4
W
64-49
64
49
+15
H09/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
D
44-44
44
44
+0
H11/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#17
W
49-46
49
46
+3
H13/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#25
W
67-53
67
53
+14
H15/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#7
W
58-49
58
49
+9
A16/11
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#8
L
52-58
52
58
-6
H19/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
L
52-53
52
53
-1
H20/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#1
L
60-73
60
73
-13
A22/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#25
L
52-66
52
66
-14
A24/11
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
47-58
47
58
-11
H27/11
NBA
109.4Avg total
54.5Scored
54.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.056.5111.5-1.537%-
Last 30 at home (16)55.253.4108.6+1.850%-
Last 30 away (14)54.960.0114.9-5.121%-
Last 10 (10)54.554.9109.4-0.440%-
Last 5 (5)52.661.6114.2-9.00%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)55.565.5121.0-10.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (24)55.556.4111.9-1.042%-
vs Weaker (4)52.252.5104.8-0.225%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 107.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.2 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.126.8
54.6%
53.1%53.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.512.0
33.8%
35.3%36.0
🏀 Free throws22.217.7
79.7%
77.4%17.7
They take 84.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 104.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.3 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.2 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.125.6
51.1%
53.1%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.913.1
35.5%
35.3%39.3
🏀 Free throws18.214.2
78.0%
77.4%14.2
They take 87.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Nov 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLWLWWWWLL
Denver Nuggets
LLLLLLWWWW
#4
League position
#11
+3.9
Net rating
-3.3
108.7
Offensive rating
110.5
104.7
Defensive rating
113.8
53.0%
Effective FG%
52.0%
53.2%
Opp. effective FG%
55.1%
14.3%
Turnover %
10.7%
24.2%
Off. rebound %
22.6%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.21
33.8%
3-point %
35.5%
60.8%
Assist %
61.5%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence108.7 · 110.5Defence104.7 · 113.8Shooting53.0% · 52.0%3-point %33.8% · 35.5%Ball care14.3% · 10.7%Off. rebounds24.2% · 22.6%Free throws0.26 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)60% · 40%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Miami Heat wins
8
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/11/21AChicago Bulls107-104
25/11/21AMinnesota Timberwolves101-113
24/11/21ADetroit Pistons100-92
21/11/21AWashington Wizards100-103
19/11/21HWashington Wizards112-97
18/11/21HNew Orleans Pelicans113-98
16/11/21AOklahoma City Thunder103-90
13/11/21AUtah Jazz111-105
12/11/21ALos Angeles Clippers109-112
11/11/21ALos Angeles Lakers117-120 OT
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/11/21HMilwaukee Bucks109-120
24/11/21APortland Trail Blazers100-119
22/11/21APhoenix Suns97-126
20/11/21HChicago Bulls108-114
19/11/21HPhiladelphia 76ers89-103
16/11/21ADallas Mavericks101-111
15/11/21HPortland Trail Blazers124-95
13/11/21HAtlanta Hawks105-96
11/11/21HIndiana Pacers101-98
09/11/21HMiami Heat113-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2021-22
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW65%
HomeWLWWW86%
AwayWLWLW54%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20713
Win %65%86%54%
Points / game108.7111.3107.3
Allowed / game102.598.4104.6
Point differential+6.2+12.9+2.7
Avg total211.2209.7211.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%71%31%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (5)100% (1)25% (4)
Overtime %10%0%15%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2021-22
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL47%
HomeWWLLL64%
AwayLLLLL25%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19118
Win %47%64%25%
Points / game102.8103.5101.8
Allowed / game103.598.7110.1
Point differential-0.7+4.8-8.4
Avg total206.3202.3211.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%27%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (4)100% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors2018290%114.0100.3+13.7
2 Phoenix Suns2017385%112.6105.0+7.6
3 Brooklyn Nets2014670%109.5105.3+4.1
4 Utah Jazz2013765%112.3103.2+9.1
5 Miami Heat2013765%108.7102.5+6.2
6 Washington Wizards2013765%106.1105.2+0.9
7 Chicago Bulls2113862%108.0104.0+4.0
8 Milwaukee Bucks2113862%109.9106.2+3.7
9 Charlotte Hornets2213959%114.2114.0+0.2
10 Dallas Mavericks1810856%104.7106.2-1.6
11 Los Angeles Clippers2011955%105.2102.7+2.5
12 New York Knicks2011955%106.3106.2+0.1
13 Atlanta Hawks21111052%110.4107.8+2.6
14 Boston Celtics21111052%107.1105.5+1.7
15 Philadelphia 76ers21111052%107.4106.4+1.0
16 Minnesota Timberwolves20101050%108.5107.0+1.6
17 Portland Trail Blazers20101050%110.5110.0+0.6
18 Cleveland Cavaliers20101050%103.0102.9+0.1
19 Los Angeles Lakers22111150%111.3114.1-2.8
20 Memphis Grizzlies20101050%110.7115.6-5.0
21 Denver Nuggets1991047%102.8103.5-0.7
22 Toronto Raptors2191243%105.9106.7-0.8
23 Indiana Pacers2291341%107.7106.3+1.4
24 Sacramento Kings2181338%110.2113.1-2.9
25 Oklahoma City Thunder1961332%99.0105.9-6.9
26 San Antonio Spurs1851328%106.7109.6-2.9
27 New Orleans Pelicans2251723%101.9109.5-7.6
28 Detroit Pistons2041620%99.0108.2-9.2
29 Orlando Magic2241818%99.6110.5-10.9
30 Houston Rockets1931616%103.5113.2-9.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat23203533111
Denver Nuggets32313225120
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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