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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 18 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 113-133
24-30 31-37 31-31 27-35
Position#20
Record20-19
FormWWWLL
Points / game110.7
Allowed / game109.5
vs
Position#9
Record24-16
FormWWWWL
Points / game120.0
Allowed / game116.0
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#4
W
104-100
104
100
+4
98avg 103
A30/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
119-108
119
108
+11
120avg 103
H02/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
115-128
115
128
-13
122avg 103
H03/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
L
100-136
100
136
-36
88avg 103
H05/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
118-123 OT
118
123
-5
105avg 103
A07/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
114-98
114
98
+16
112avg 103
A08/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
97-92
97
92
+5
89avg 103
A10/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
119-98
119
98
+21
114avg 103
A12/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
98-109
98
109
-11
90avg 103
A14/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
108-117
108
117
-9
108avg 103
A16/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-27
22-23
28-32
23-18
36-24
20-27
34-25
29-32
25-38
25-28
33-41
32-21
22-22
19-40
25-36
34-38
28-23
19-27
31-18
24-34
29-23
32-25
23-30
30-20
20-27
26-14
22-29
29-22
29-23
37-25
28-35
25-15
35-28
13-15
20-36
30-30
38-34
28-20
19-29
23-34
220.1Avg total
109.2Scored
110.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (39)110.7109.5220.2+1.351%
Season at home (17)112.1109.2221.3+2.859%
Season away (22)109.7109.7219.4+0.045%
Last 10 (10)109.2110.9220.1-1.750%
Last 5 (5)107.2102.8210.0+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)102.0106.8208.8-4.840%
vs Similar ◀ (19)115.7112.3227.9+3.447%
vs Weaker (6)105.0102.3207.3+2.783%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#30
W
132-121
132
121
+11
131avg 110
A31/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
139-120
139
120
+19
147avg 110
H02/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
110-113
110
113
-3
102avg 110
H04/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
122-111 OT
122
111
+11
115avg 110
A05/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
106-118
106
118
-12
95avg 110
H08/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
126-103
126
103
+23
124avg 110
H09/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
124-105
124
105
+19
126avg 110
H11/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
112-101
112
101
+11
105avg 110
A12/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
118-99
118
99
+19
121avg 110
A15/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
108-128
108
128
-20
102avg 110
H16/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
36-37
28-29
34-23
34-32
40-33
34-38
41-24
24-25
30-32
22-28
38-27
20-26
30-27
24-28
27-37
27-16
25-37
32-20
26-31
23-30
33-19
33-31
32-27
28-26
32-36
33-23
29-20
30-26
17-32
41-29
21-28
33-12
36-21
35-24
20-22
27-32
23-28
25-41
33-33
27-26
231.6Avg total
119.7Scored
111.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (40)120.0116.0236.0+4.060%
Season at home (20)119.9116.2236.2+3.760%
Season away (20)120.1115.8235.8+4.360%
Last 10 (10)119.7111.9231.6+7.870%
Last 5 (5)117.6107.2224.8+10.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)118.3131.0249.3-12.70%
vs Similar ◀ (14)119.0114.6233.6+4.464%
vs Weaker (13)120.8112.5233.2+8.362%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: -4.8-4.8Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: +2.2+2.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.4+2.4Q1: +0.0+0.0Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: +1.6+1.6Q3Q3: -4.8-4.8Q3: +2.9+2.9Q4Q4: +1.5+1.5Q4: +2.2+2.2
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#4
W
53-50
53
50
+3
A30/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H02/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
50-66
50
66
-16
H03/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
L
41-62
41
62
-21
H05/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A07/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
61-48
61
48
+13
A08/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A10/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
66-48
66
48
+18
A12/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A14/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
66-54
66
54
+12
A16/01
NBA
104.7Avg total
53.4Scored
51.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.954.2109.0+0.750%-
Last 30 at home (13)54.556.2110.8-1.746%-
Last 30 away (17)55.152.6107.7+2.553%-
Last 10 (10)53.451.3104.7+2.170%-
Last 5 (5)57.446.8104.2+10.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)50.450.8101.2-0.460%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)57.456.1113.4+1.342%-
vs Weaker (6)50.751.0101.7-0.367%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#30
L
64-66
64
66
-2
A31/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
74-71
74
71
+3
H02/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
52-60
52
60
-8
H04/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
L
54-55
54
55
-1
A05/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H08/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
66-50
66
50
+16
H09/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
65-59
65
59
+6
H11/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
L
58-61
58
61
-3
A12/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#17
W
71-45
71
45
+26
A15/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
48-69
48
69
-21
H16/01
NBA
120.2Avg total
60.9Scored
59.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.960.9120.8-1.037%-
Last 30 at home (13)58.562.4120.8-3.946%-
Last 30 away (17)61.059.7120.7+1.329%-
Last 10 (10)60.959.3120.2+1.640%-
Last 5 (5)61.656.8118.4+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)61.367.7129.0-6.30%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)58.860.1118.9-1.343%-
vs Weaker (13)60.860.2120.9+0.638%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 109.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.1 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.426.0
56.0%
54.3%52.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.213.7
34.9%
35.9%41.1
🏀 Free throws20.816.1
77.4%
77.8%16.1
They take 85.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 119.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers67.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.0 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.233.8
56.1%
54.3%67.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.812.0
37.7%
35.9%36.0
🏀 Free throws20.716.1
77.8%
77.8%16.1
They take 92.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 18 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLWWWLLLWW
Denver Nuggets
LWWWWLWLWW
#20
League position
#9
-1.7
Net rating
+7.6
109.2
Offensive rating
116.6
110.9
Defensive rating
109.0
54.4%
Effective FG%
56.3%
52.6%
Opp. effective FG%
51.9%
13.3%
Turnover %
12.1%
19.3%
Off. rebound %
26.2%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.23
34.9%
3-point %
37.7%
69.3%
Assist %
66.6%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence109.2 · 116.6Defence110.9 · 109.0Shooting54.4% · 56.3%3-point %34.9% · 37.7%Ball care13.3% · 12.1%Off. rebounds19.3% · 26.2%Free throws0.24 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Miami Heat wins
9
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/01/25ALos Angeles Lakers108-117
14/01/25ALos Angeles Clippers98-109
12/01/25APortland Trail Blazers119-98
10/01/25AUtah Jazz97-92
08/01/25AGolden State Warriors114-98
07/01/25ASacramento Kings118-123 OT
05/01/25HUtah Jazz100-136
03/01/25HIndiana Pacers115-128
02/01/25HNew Orleans Pelicans119-108
30/12/24AHouston Rockets104-100
DateH/AOpponentScore
16/01/25HHouston Rockets108-128
15/01/25ADallas Mavericks118-99
12/01/25ADallas Mavericks112-101
11/01/25HBrooklyn Nets124-105
09/01/25HLos Angeles Clippers126-103
08/01/25HBoston Celtics106-118
05/01/25ASan Antonio Spurs122-111 OT
04/01/25HSan Antonio Spurs110-113
02/01/25HAtlanta Hawks139-120
31/12/24AUtah Jazz132-121

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL51%
HomeLWWLL59%
AwayWWWLL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games391722
Win %51%59%45%
Points / game110.7112.1109.7
Allowed / game109.5109.2109.7
Point differential+1.3+2.8+0.0
Avg total220.2221.3219.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%41%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)33% (3)50% (10)
Overtime %10%6%14%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL60%
HomeLLWWL60%
AwayLWWWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games402020
Win %60%60%60%
Points / game120.0119.9120.1
Allowed / game116.0116.2115.8
Point differential+4.0+3.6+4.3
Avg total236.0236.2235.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%40%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (14)57% (7)57% (7)
Overtime %10%0%20%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Cleveland Cavaliers4034685%122.0112.0+10.1
2 Oklahoma City Thunder3832684%116.7103.8+12.9
3 Boston Celtics41291271%117.6108.4+9.2
4 Houston Rockets38261268%115.1108.4+6.7
5 New York Knicks42271564%117.4111.1+6.3
6 Memphis Grizzlies41261563%123.0115.2+7.8
7 Denver Nuggets40241660%120.0116.0+4.0
8 Los Angeles Clippers40231757%109.6106.6+3.0
9 Los Angeles Lakers38211755%111.7114.1-2.4
10 Dallas Mavericks40221855%115.9112.0+3.9
11 Indiana Pacers42231955%115.2114.9+0.3
12 Orlando Magic42231955%104.2103.9+0.3
13 Milwaukee Bucks37201754%113.4111.4+2.0
14 Minnesota Timberwolves41221954%109.9107.6+2.3
15 Atlanta Hawks38201853%117.8119.9-2.1
16 Miami Heat39201951%110.7109.5+1.3
17 Golden State Warriors39201951%111.7111.3+0.4
18 Sacramento Kings41212051%116.5114.2+2.3
19 Detroit Pistons41212051%112.1113.3-1.2
20 Phoenix Suns40202050%112.9114.2-1.3
21 San Antonio Spurs39192049%111.7112.0-0.2
22 Chicago Bulls41182344%117.5120.5-3.1
23 Philadelphia 76ers39152438%107.6111.2-3.6
24 Brooklyn Nets41142734%106.9114.0-7.1
25 Portland Trail Blazers40132732%107.9116.9-9.0
26 Utah Jazz39102926%110.9117.6-6.7
27 Toronto Raptors41103124%111.0118.2-7.3
28 Charlotte Hornets3792824%106.5112.4-5.9
29 New Orleans Pelicans42103224%108.3117.0-8.8
30 Washington Wizards3963315%108.7122.8-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat24313127113
Denver Nuggets30373135133
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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