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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 28 Jan 2021
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 82-109
12-26 21-32 32-16 17-35
Position#15
Record7-11
FormWWLLL
Points / game107.4
Allowed / game111.9
vs
Position#6
Record12-8
FormLWWWW
Points / game117.3
Allowed / game110.7
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2020-21
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#16
L
105-107
105
107
-2
100avg 104
H07/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
W
128-124
128
124
+4
132avg 104
A10/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
L
134-137 OT
134
137
-3
120avg 104
A13/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
L
108-125
108
125
-17
103avg 104
A15/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
L
100-120
100
120
-20
98avg 104
H17/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
W
113-107
113
107
+6
110avg 104
H19/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
111-102
111
102
+9
113avg 104
A21/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
L
81-101
81
101
-20
69avg 104
A23/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
L
124-128
124
128
-4
112avg 104
A24/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
L
85-98
85
98
-13
73avg 104
A26/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-34
19-19
35-27
25-27
47-44
28-27
28-15
25-38
25-28
38-27
32-41
25-24
30-38
28-35
20-25
30-27
23-29
33-23
19-38
25-30
24-36
31-25
33-19
25-27
29-23
27-35
32-25
23-19
20-37
22-19
22-17
17-28
25-36
31-30
26-30
42-32
21-15
24-26
26-29
14-28
223.8Avg total
108.9Scored
114.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (18)107.4111.9219.3-4.539%
Season at home (8)106.9111.0217.9-4.150%
Season away (10)107.8112.6220.4-4.830%
Last 10 (10)108.9114.9223.8-6.030%
Last 5 (5)102.8107.2210.0-4.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)111.2123.3234.5-12.217%
vs Similar (22)106.5109.4215.8-2.950%
vs Weaker (2)112.5101.5214.0+11.050%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#9
L
117-124 OT
117
124
-7
105avg 107
H08/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
115-103
115
103
+12
111avg 107
A09/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#11
W
114-89
114
89
+25
110avg 107
A10/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
L
116-122
116
122
-6
105avg 107
A13/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
W
114-104
114
104
+10
110avg 107
H15/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#1
L
105-109
105
109
-4
93avg 107
H18/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
W
119-101
119
101
+18
113avg 107
H20/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
W
130-126 OT
130
126
+4
123avg 107
A23/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
W
120-112 OT
120
112
+8
113avg 107
A24/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#9
W
117-113
117
113
+4
117avg 107
A26/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-22
24-21
26-33
31-33
28-26
30-25
35-21
22-31
28-21
31-17
23-26
32-25
35-27
35-27
20-36
26-32
37-24
28-30
25-22
24-28
31-32
27-21
21-28
26-28
31-31
34-21
32-22
22-27
25-34
29-34
37-27
23-19
28-30
30-31
15-16
25-21
38-31
32-27
22-36
25-19
227.0Avg total
116.7Scored
110.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (20)117.3110.7227.9+6.660%
Season at home (11)117.3109.7227.0+7.555%
Season away (9)117.3111.8229.1+5.667%
Last 10 (10)116.7110.3227.0+6.470%
Last 5 (5)118.2112.2230.4+6.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)106.4106.9213.3-0.540%
vs Similar (14)115.6109.1224.7+6.657%
vs Weaker ◀ (6)121.2114.3235.5+6.867%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -5.0-5.0Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: -0.7-0.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -5.0-5.0Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +1.5+1.5Q2: +4.6+4.6Q3Q3: +0.7+0.7Q3: -1.1-1.1Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: -0.7-0.7
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#16
L
45-53
45
53
-8
H07/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
W
75-71
75
71
+4
A10/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
63-55
63
55
+8
A13/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
L
58-73
58
73
-15
A15/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
W
56-52
56
52
+4
H17/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
L
55-61
55
61
-6
H19/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
L
56-58
56
58
-2
A21/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
L
42-56
42
56
-14
A23/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
L
56-66
56
66
-10
A24/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
W
45-41
45
41
+4
A26/01
NBA
113.7Avg total
55.1Scored
58.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.457.8111.2-4.440%-
Last 30 at home (14)53.157.2110.3-4.143%-
Last 30 away (16)53.758.3112.0-4.638%-
Last 10 (10)55.158.6113.7-3.540%-
Last 5 (5)50.856.4107.2-5.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)54.062.3116.3-8.333%-
vs Similar (22)52.857.0109.9-4.241%-
vs Weaker (2)58.052.5110.5+5.550%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#9
W
52-43
52
43
+9
H08/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
58-51
58
51
+7
A09/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#11
W
59-38
59
38
+21
A10/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
W
70-54
70
54
+16
A13/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
W
65-54
65
54
+11
H15/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#1
W
58-53
58
53
+5
H18/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
W
65-52
65
52
+13
H20/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
54-68
54
68
-14
A23/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
58-61
58
61
-3
A24/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#9
W
70-58
70
58
+12
A26/01
NBA
114.1Avg total
60.9Scored
53.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.156.9115.0+1.250%-
Last 30 at home (16)59.255.7114.9+3.662%-
Last 30 away (14)56.758.3115.0-1.636%-
Last 10 (10)60.953.2114.1+7.780%-
Last 5 (5)61.058.4119.4+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (10)52.258.4110.6-6.220%-
vs Similar (14)60.455.1115.5+5.464%-
vs Weaker ◀ (6)62.358.7121.0+3.767%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 108.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.9 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.8 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.325.6
57.8%
52.8%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.813.3
34.3%
36.6%39.9
🏀 Free throws22.417.8
79.5%
77.7%17.8
They take 83.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 47% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 116.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.130.2
52.9%
52.8%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.213.5
37.3%
36.6%40.5
🏀 Free throws19.915.8
79.4%
77.7%15.8
They take 93.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Jan 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLLWWLLLWL
Denver Nuggets
WWWWLWLWWL
#15
League position
#6
-5.9
Net rating
+6.3
107.3
Offensive rating
114.1
113.2
Defensive rating
107.8
54.8%
Effective FG%
54.1%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
54.7%
15.6%
Turnover %
12.9%
17.8%
Off. rebound %
27.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.21
34.3%
3-point %
37.3%
66.3%
Assist %
60.9%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence107.3 · 114.1Defence113.2 · 107.8Shooting54.8% · 54.1%3-point %34.3% · 37.3%Ball care15.6% · 12.9%Off. rebounds17.8% · 27.9%Free throws0.27 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Miami Heat wins
5
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/01/21ABrooklyn Nets85-98
24/01/21ABrooklyn Nets124-128
23/01/21AToronto Raptors81-101
21/01/21AToronto Raptors111-102
19/01/21HDetroit Pistons113-107
17/01/21HDetroit Pistons100-120
15/01/21APhiladelphia 76ers108-125
13/01/21APhiladelphia 76ers134-137 OT
10/01/21AWashington Wizards128-124
07/01/21HBoston Celtics105-107
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/01/21ADallas Mavericks117-113
24/01/21APhoenix Suns120-112 OT
23/01/21APhoenix Suns130-126 OT
20/01/21HOklahoma City Thunder119-101
18/01/21HUtah Jazz105-109
15/01/21HGolden State Warriors114-104
13/01/21ABrooklyn Nets116-122
10/01/21ANew York Knicks114-89
09/01/21APhiladelphia 76ers115-103
08/01/21HDallas Mavericks117-124 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL39%
HomeWWLLW50%
AwayLWLLL30%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games18810
Win %39%50%30%
Points / game107.4106.9107.8
Allowed / game111.9111.0112.6
Point differential-4.5-4.1-4.8
Avg total219.3217.9220.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%38%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won25% (4)0% (1)33% (3)
Overtime %6%0%10%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW60%
HomeWLWLW55%
AwayWLWWW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games20119
Win %60%55%67%
Points / game117.3117.3117.3
Allowed / game110.7109.7111.8
Point differential+6.7+7.5+5.6
Avg total227.9227.0229.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%45%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (6)0% (3)67% (3)
Overtime %20%18%22%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers2218482%113.7104.0+9.7
2 Utah Jazz2016480%113.7104.7+9.0
3 Philadelphia 76ers2014670%113.4110.0+3.5
4 Brooklyn Nets2113862%118.8113.8+5.0
5 Los Angeles Clippers2113862%111.5108.3+3.2
6 Denver Nuggets2012860%117.3110.7+6.7
7 Memphis Grizzlies1710759%109.4107.5+1.9
8 Boston Celtics1810856%110.9110.0+0.9
9 Golden State Warriors2011955%112.3113.7-1.4
10 Milwaukee Bucks1910953%118.3112.8+5.5
11 Indiana Pacers21111052%112.6111.0+1.5
12 Atlanta Hawks21111052%112.3110.9+1.4
13 Houston Rockets20101050%111.2108.5+2.6
14 Dallas Mavericks20101050%111.5110.5+1.0
15 Portland Trail Blazers20101050%113.5116.9-3.4
16 Cleveland Cavaliers22111150%104.4108.7-4.3
17 New York Knicks23111248%101.3101.3-0.1
18 Chicago Bulls21101148%114.1115.8-1.7
19 Toronto Raptors2091145%110.3109.4+0.9
20 San Antonio Spurs2091145%110.2112.1-1.9
21 Orlando Magic23101343%107.1111.7-4.6
22 Sacramento Kings2191243%112.5119.3-6.8
23 Phoenix Suns1981142%109.6110.1-0.4
24 Oklahoma City Thunder1981142%106.9113.2-6.3
25 New Orleans Pelicans1771041%109.6110.4-0.8
26 Miami Heat1871139%107.4111.9-4.5
27 Charlotte Hornets2281436%108.5110.5-2.0
28 Detroit Pistons2261627%106.6109.5-2.9
29 Minnesota Timberwolves1951426%108.0117.1-9.1
30 Washington Wizards1641225%113.3117.1-3.8
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat1221321782
Denver Nuggets26321635109
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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