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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Jun 2023
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 95-108
21-20 30-35 22-31 22-22
Position#10
Record58-47
FormLWLWL
Points / game109.4
Allowed / game109.2
vs
Position#2
Record67-33
FormWWWLW
Points / game115.6
Allowed / game111.4
USANBANBA - Final· Kaseya Center
NBA2022-23Neutral venue
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#3
W
123-116
123
116
+7
112avg 101
A18/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
111-105
111
105
+6
102avg 101
A20/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
128-102
128
102
+26
123avg 101
H22/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
99-116
99
116
-17
91avg 101
H24/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
97-110
97
110
-13
90avg 101
A26/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
103-104
103
104
-1
88avg 101
H28/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
103-84
103
84
+19
98avg 101
A30/05
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
93-104
93
104
-11
81avg 101
A02/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
W
111-108
111
108
+3
106avg 101
A05/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
94-109
94
109
-15
72avg 101
H08/06
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-30
29-36
46-25
20-25
24-25
30-25
21-33
36-22
30-22
31-24
32-17
35-39
29-23
27-27
23-38
20-28
20-35
24-26
28-29
25-20
29-34
24-23
19-22
31-25
22-15
30-26
24-25
27-18
20-29
22-30
21-25
30-20
26-23
25-34
24-26
36-25
24-24
24-29
20-29
26-27
212.0Avg total
106.2Scored
105.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (105)109.4109.2218.6+0.355%
Season at home (52)110.6108.7219.2+1.965%
Season away (53)108.3109.7218.1-1.445%
Last 10 (10)106.2105.8212.0+0.450%
Last 5 (5)100.8101.8202.6-1.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)106.2105.8212.0+0.450%
vs Similar (19)111.9108.3220.2+3.663%
vs Weaker (1)118.0105.0223.0+13.0100%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
124-129
124
129
-5
115avg 112
A08/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
118-102
118
102
+16
120avg 112
H10/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
125-100
125
100
+25
122avg 112
A12/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
132-126
132
126
+6
130avg 112
H17/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
108-103
108
103
+5
104avg 112
H19/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
119-108
119
108
+11
114avg 112
A21/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
113-111
113
111
+2
106avg 112
A23/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
104-93
104
93
+11
106avg 112
H02/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
108-111
108
111
-3
105avg 112
H05/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
109-94
109
94
+15
116avg 112
A08/06
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-32
27-31
31-35
32-31
35-24
17-25
39-25
27-28
44-26
37-25
22-25
22-24
37-25
35-29
34-38
26-34
27-27
21-26
28-26
32-24
32-20
26-35
26-27
35-26
28-34
30-39
36-16
19-22
29-20
30-22
25-21
20-30
23-26
34-25
26-24
25-36
24-24
29-24
29-20
27-26
223.7Avg total
116.0Scored
107.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (100)115.6111.4227.0+4.267%
Season at home (51)118.2108.3226.6+9.984%
Season away (49)112.9114.6227.5-1.749%
Last 10 (10)116.0107.7223.7+8.380%
Last 5 (5)110.6103.4214.0+7.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (18)113.7108.8222.5+4.967%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)111.2106.1217.3+5.267%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +5.5+5.5Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +3.9+3.9Q4Q4: +3.7+3.7Q4: -1.6-1.6
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +5.5+5.5Q2Q2: -1.4-1.4Q2: +0.5+0.5Q3Q3: -1.1-1.1Q3: +3.9+3.9Q4Q4: +3.7+3.7Q4: -1.6-1.6
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Boston Celtics
#3
L
57-66
57
66
-9
A18/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
54-50
54
50
+4
A20/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
61-46
61
46
+15
H22/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
56-50
56
50
+6
H24/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
44-61
44
61
-17
A26/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
53-57
53
57
-4
H28/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
52-41
52
41
+11
A30/05
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
42-59
42
59
-17
A02/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
51-57
51
57
-6
A05/06
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
48-53
48
53
-5
H08/06
NBA
105.8Avg total
51.8Scored
54.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.454.3108.7+0.250%-
Last 30 at home (13)55.852.4108.2+3.569%-
Last 30 away (17)53.455.7109.1-2.435%-
Last 10 (10)51.854.0105.8-2.240%-
Last 5 (5)49.253.4102.6-4.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (10)51.854.0105.8-2.240%-
vs Similar (19)55.654.5110.1+1.153%-
vs Weaker (1)59.052.0111.0+7.0100%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
61-63
61
63
-2
A08/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H10/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
81-51
81
51
+30
A12/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
72-54
72
54
+18
H17/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
L
48-53
48
53
-5
H19/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A21/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
L
58-73
58
73
-15
A23/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
59-42
59
42
+17
H02/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
57-51
57
51
+6
H05/06
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
53-48
53
48
+5
A08/06
NBA
113.8Avg total
59.9Scored
53.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.154.7111.8+2.557%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.352.2108.5+4.160%-
Last 30 away (15)58.057.1115.1+0.953%-
Last 10 (10)59.953.9113.8+6.070%-
Last 5 (5)57.053.8110.8+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (18)57.457.6115.0-0.239%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)56.850.2107.0+6.583%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 106.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.8 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.0 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.4 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.526.4
48.4%
54.5%52.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.413.0
41.4%
35.8%39.0
🏀 Free throws17.314.4
83.2%
78.1%14.4
They take 85.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 116.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.532.0
57.7%
54.5%64.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.811.0
38.2%
35.8%33.0
🏀 Free throws23.219.0
81.9%
78.1%19.0
They take 84.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Jun 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWLWLLLWWW
Denver Nuggets
WLWWWWWWWL
#10
League position
#2
+0.4
Net rating
+8.7
113.1
Offensive rating
121.1
112.7
Defensive rating
112.4
53.4%
Effective FG%
57.5%
53.9%
Opp. effective FG%
52.8%
10.8%
Turnover %
10.8%
22.4%
Off. rebound %
25.1%
0.20
Free-throw rate
0.28
41.4%
3-point %
38.2%
57.9%
Assist %
64.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence113.1 · 121.1Defence112.7 · 112.4Shooting53.4% · 57.5%3-point %41.4% · 38.2%Ball care10.8% · 10.8%Off. rebounds22.4% · 25.1%Free throws0.20 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Miami Heat wins
8
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/06/23HDenver Nuggets94-109
05/06/23ADenver Nuggets111-108
02/06/23ADenver Nuggets93-104
30/05/23ABoston Celtics103-84
28/05/23HBoston Celtics103-104
26/05/23ABoston Celtics97-110
24/05/23HBoston Celtics99-116
22/05/23HBoston Celtics128-102
20/05/23ABoston Celtics111-105
18/05/23ABoston Celtics123-116
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/06/23AMiami Heat109-94
05/06/23HMiami Heat108-111
02/06/23HMiami Heat104-93
23/05/23ALos Angeles Lakers113-111
21/05/23ALos Angeles Lakers119-108
19/05/23HLos Angeles Lakers108-103
17/05/23HLos Angeles Lakers132-126
12/05/23APhoenix Suns125-100
10/05/23HPhoenix Suns118-102
08/05/23APhoenix Suns124-129

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL55%
HomeWWLLL65%
AwayWLWLW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1055253
Win %55%65%45%
Points / game109.4110.6108.3
Allowed / game109.2108.7109.7
Point differential+0.3+1.9-1.4
Avg total218.6219.2218.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%17%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (44)69% (26)56% (18)
Overtime %6%2%9%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW67%
HomeWWWWL84%
AwayLWWWW49%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1005149
Win %67%84%49%
Points / game115.6118.2112.9
Allowed / game111.4108.3114.6
Point differential+4.2+9.9-1.7
Avg total227.0226.6227.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%51%22%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (30)67% (18)67% (12)
Overtime %4%4%4%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks87592868%117.0113.9+3.1
2 Denver Nuggets100673367%115.6111.4+4.2
3 Boston Celtics102683467%116.8110.9+5.9
4 Philadelphia 76ers93613266%113.7110.1+3.6
5 Memphis Grizzlies88533560%116.1112.9+3.2
6 Cleveland Cavaliers87523560%111.2106.5+4.8
7 Sacramento Kings89513857%120.2117.9+2.3
8 New York Knicks93534057%114.1111.5+2.6
9 Miami Heat105584755%109.4109.2+0.3
10 Phoenix Suns93514255%113.7112.2+1.6
11 Golden State Warriors95504553%118.1116.6+1.5
12 Los Angeles Lakers99524753%116.3115.4+0.9
13 Brooklyn Nets86454152%112.4112.1+0.3
14 Los Angeles Clippers87454252%113.7113.6+0.1
15 New Orleans Pelicans83424151%114.4112.6+1.8
16 Atlanta Hawks89444549%118.2118.2+0.0
17 Minnesota Timberwolves89444549%115.1115.4-0.3
18 Toronto Raptors83414249%112.8111.3+1.4
19 Chicago Bulls84414349%112.8111.6+1.2
20 Oklahoma City Thunder84414349%117.3116.5+0.8
21 Dallas Mavericks82384446%114.2114.1+0.1
22 Utah Jazz82374545%117.1118.0-0.9
23 Washington Wizards82354743%113.2114.4-1.2
24 Indiana Pacers82354743%116.3119.5-3.2
25 Orlando Magic82344841%111.4114.0-2.6
26 Portland Trail Blazers82334940%113.4117.4-4.0
27 Charlotte Hornets82275533%111.0117.2-6.2
28 Houston Rockets82226027%110.7118.6-7.9
29 San Antonio Spurs82226027%113.0123.1-10.0
30 Detroit Pistons82176521%110.3118.5-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat2130222295
Denver Nuggets20353122108
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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