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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 02 Apr 2017
Tip-off: 22:00
Final 113-116
30-37 28-31 29-25 26-23
Position#13
Record41-43
FormLLWWL
Points / game102.8
Allowed / game101.5
vs
Position#16
Record39-44
FormWWLLL
Points / game110.8
Allowed / game110.7
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2016-17
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
08 Aug 2021
MIA97
DEN77
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#15
L
98-102
98
102
-4
A12/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#22
W
120-112
120
112
+8
H15/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
123-105
123
105
+18
H18/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
104-115
104
115
-11
H19/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
112-97
112
97
+15
H21/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#7
L
84-101
84
101
-17
H23/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#4
L
108-112
108
112
-4
A26/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
97-96
97
96
+1
A28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#23
W
105-88
105
88
+17
A29/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#23
L
94-98
94
98
-4
H01/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-32
31-28
22-23
23-19
28-21
26-31
31-27
35-33
27-23
37-26
26-32
33-24
29-28
22-24
28-33
25-30
23-26
36-20
25-17
28-34
33-23
14-22
21-30
16-26
27-22
31-31
17-32
33-27
24-24
31-26
23-19
19-27
24-22
25-19
28-27
28-20
29-33
26-26
20-18
19-21
207.1Avg total
104.5Scored
102.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (84)102.8101.5204.3+1.349%
Season at home (43)105.9101.5207.3+4.453%
Season away (41)99.6101.5201.2-1.944%
Last 10 (10)104.5102.6207.1+1.950%
Last 5 (5)97.699.0196.6-1.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (19)108.6100.1208.7+8.579%
vs Weaker (11)107.0101.5208.5+5.555%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#25
W
105-92
105
92
+13
A12/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#29
W
129-101
129
101
+28
H14/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
W
129-114
129
114
+15
H17/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
105-109
105
109
-4
H19/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
L
124-125
124
125
-1
A21/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#5
W
126-113
126
113
+13
H23/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#15
W
125-117
125
117
+8
A24/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#22
L
90-115
90
115
-25
H27/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
113-122
113
122
-9
A29/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
L
114-122
114
122
-8
A31/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-19
29-25
21-25
30-23
35-23
32-20
26-33
36-25
27-19
32-27
44-34
26-34
26-26
30-25
18-29
31-29
28-35
37-27
32-32
27-31
34-31
39-28
28-31
25-23
34-26
30-27
30-22
31-42
26-29
14-26
19-32
31-28
35-32
29-34
21-29
28-27
32-24
24-32
38-30
20-36
229.0Avg total
116.0Scored
113.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (83)110.8110.7221.5+0.147%
Season at home (41)113.9110.5224.4+3.454%
Season away (42)107.7110.9218.5-3.240%
Last 10 (10)116.0113.0229.0+3.050%
Last 5 (5)113.6117.8231.4-4.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)114.5116.2230.8-1.825%
vs Similar ◀ (19)112.6113.0225.6-0.447%
vs Weaker (7)115.7106.6222.3+9.171%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: +2.6+2.6Q2: +2.5+2.5Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: -2.0-2.0Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: -1.3-1.3
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#15
L
53-60
53
60
-7
A12/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#22
W
54-52
54
52
+2
H15/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
W
64-49
64
49
+15
H18/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H19/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H21/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#7
W
47-45
47
45
+2
H23/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#4
W
58-53
58
53
+5
A26/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
W
55-50
55
50
+5
A28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#23
W
49-41
49
41
+8
A29/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#23
L
55-59
55
59
-4
H01/04
NBA
105.2Avg total
54.5Scored
50.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.051.5108.5+5.663%-
Last 30 at home (16)58.151.1109.2+7.069%-
Last 30 away (14)55.851.9107.6+3.957%-
Last 10 (10)54.550.7105.2+3.870%-
Last 5 (5)52.849.6102.4+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar ◀ (19)58.150.9109.0+7.174%-
vs Weaker (11)55.352.4107.6+2.945%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#25
W
54-44
54
44
+10
A12/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#29
W
67-43
67
43
+24
H14/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
W
59-46
59
46
+13
H17/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H19/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#3
W
65-62
65
62
+3
A21/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#5
W
73-59
73
59
+14
H23/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#15
W
64-53
64
53
+11
A24/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#22
L
40-55
40
55
-15
H27/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
64-66
64
66
-2
A29/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
D
56-56
56
56
+0
A31/03
NBA
113.3Avg total
59.8Scored
53.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.555.4113.9+3.150%-
Last 30 at home (16)59.253.6112.8+5.662%-
Last 30 away (14)57.757.6115.3+0.136%-
Last 10 (10)59.853.5113.3+6.370%-
Last 5 (5)59.457.8117.2+1.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)62.555.8118.2+6.875%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)57.956.5114.5+1.437%-
vs Weaker (7)57.752.3110.0+5.471%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 104.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.6 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.6 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.830.8
52.4%
50.2%61.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.19.1
32.4%
35.7%27.3
🏀 Free throws21.415.6
72.9%
77.0%15.6
They take 86.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 116.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.2 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.2 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 105.4 points a game
55%
27%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.631.6
53.9%
50.2%63.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.111.2
37.2%
35.7%33.6
🏀 Free throws22.619.2
85.0%
77.0%19.2
They take 88.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 32%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 02 Apr 2017 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWWLLWLWWL
Denver Nuggets
LLLWWLLWWW
#13
League position
#16
+2.0
Net rating
+3.0
108.3
Offensive rating
116.0
106.3
Defensive rating
113.0
51.2%
Effective FG%
54.6%
49.8%
Opp. effective FG%
54.7%
13.2%
Turnover %
11.8%
28.9%
Off. rebound %
22.6%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.25
32.4%
3-point %
37.2%
49.4%
Assist %
64.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence108.3 · 116.0Defence106.3 · 113.0Shooting51.2% · 54.6%3-point %32.4% · 37.2%Ball care13.2% · 11.8%Off. rebounds28.9% · 22.6%Free throws0.25 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)50% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Miami Heat wins
3
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/04/17HNew York Knicks94-98
29/03/17ANew York Knicks105-88
28/03/17ADetroit Pistons97-96
26/03/17ABoston Celtics108-112
23/03/17HToronto Raptors84-101
21/03/17HPhoenix Suns112-97
19/03/17HPortland Trail Blazers104-115
18/03/17HMinnesota Timberwolves123-105
15/03/17HNew Orleans Pelicans120-112
12/03/17AIndiana Pacers98-102
DateH/AOpponentScore
31/03/17ACharlotte Hornets114-122
29/03/17APortland Trail Blazers113-122
27/03/17HNew Orleans Pelicans90-115
24/03/17AIndiana Pacers125-117
23/03/17HCleveland Cavaliers126-113
21/03/17AHouston Rockets124-125
19/03/17HHouston Rockets105-109
17/03/17HLos Angeles Clippers129-114
14/03/17HLos Angeles Lakers129-101
12/03/17ASacramento Kings105-92

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL49%
HomeWLWLL53%
AwayWLLWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844341
Win %49%53%44%
Points / game102.8105.999.6
Allowed / game101.5101.5101.5
Point differential+1.3+4.4-1.9
Avg total204.3207.3201.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+25%35%15%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (21)22% (9)50% (12)
Overtime %2%5%0%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2016-17
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLL47%
HomeWWLWL54%
AwayWLWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games834142
Win %47%54%40%
Points / game110.8113.9107.7
Allowed / game110.7110.5110.9
Point differential+0.1+3.4-3.2
Avg total221.5224.4218.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%44%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (21)30% (10)45% (11)
Overtime %5%10%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors83681582%115.4103.9+11.5
2 San Antonio Spurs82631977%105.497.9+7.5
3 Houston Rockets82552767%115.4109.1+6.3
4 Boston Celtics84552965%107.6104.6+3.0
5 Cleveland Cavaliers81503162%109.4106.7+2.7
6 Utah Jazz83503360%100.396.5+3.9
7 Washington Wizards83503360%109.0106.3+2.7
8 Toronto Raptors82493360%106.8102.9+3.9
9 Los Angeles Clippers84503460%107.3104.7+2.6
10 Oklahoma City Thunder80453556%106.6105.9+0.7
11 Memphis Grizzlies83463755%101.3100.3+1.1
12 Atlanta Hawks83443953%102.5103.2-0.6
13 Milwaukee Bucks83434052%103.6103.7-0.1
14 Portland Trail Blazers83424151%108.0108.5-0.5
15 Miami Heat84414349%102.8101.5+1.3
16 Indiana Pacers82404249%104.5105.4-1.0
17 Chicago Bulls83404348%102.6103.1-0.5
18 Denver Nuggets83394447%110.8110.7+0.1
19 Charlotte Hornets84394546%104.3104.0+0.3
20 Detroit Pistons83384546%100.5101.4-0.9
21 Minnesota Timberwolves82354743%105.0105.1-0.2
22 New Orleans Pelicans82344841%104.2106.0-1.8
23 Dallas Mavericks83344941%97.7100.6-2.9
24 New York Knicks83335040%104.9108.2-3.3
25 Sacramento Kings82325039%102.4106.5-4.1
26 Philadelphia 76ers83305336%101.9107.7-5.8
27 Orlando Magic84295535%100.7106.9-6.2
28 Phoenix Suns83265731%107.0112.4-5.4
29 Los Angeles Lakers85246128%104.8111.7-6.9
30 Brooklyn Nets82186422%105.5112.7-7.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat30282926113
Denver Nuggets37312523116
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