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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 14 Mar 2016
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 124-119
36-33 28-29 26-29 34-28
Position#8
Record38-28
FormWWLWL
Points / game98.5
Allowed / game97.4
vs
Position#22
Record28-38
FormLWWWW
Points / game102.1
Allowed / game104.2
USANBA
NBA2015-16
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#1
L
112-118
112
118
-6
102avg 91
H25/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#9
L
89-101
89
101
-12
80avg 91
A27/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
W
98-81
98
81
+17
98avg 91
A29/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
129-111
129
111
+18
132avg 91
H02/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
108-92
108
92
+16
105avg 91
H04/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
W
112-102
112
102
+10
108avg 91
A05/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
W
103-98
103
98
+5
95avg 91
H06/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#23
L
108-114
108
114
-6
104avg 91
A10/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
118-96
118
96
+22
113avg 91
A12/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
104-112 OT
104
112
-8
85avg 91
A13/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-21
25-30
28-29
29-38
26-18
23-28
21-26
19-29
23-19
21-20
25-26
29-16
36-30
29-32
30-20
34-29
29-21
28-22
27-25
24-24
40-29
19-20
25-28
28-25
30-25
17-24
22-20
34-29
22-29
32-28
31-23
23-34
23-31
31-27
30-23
34-15
24-28
22-25
25-17
26-27
210.6Avg total
108.1Scored
102.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (66)98.597.4195.9+1.158%
Season at home (33)100.997.1198.0+3.864%
Season away (33)96.197.7193.8-1.752%
Last 10 (10)108.1102.5210.6+5.660%
Last 5 (5)109.0104.4213.4+4.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)97.5111.8209.2-14.20%
vs Similar (17)99.599.9199.4-0.453%
vs Weaker ◀ (9)101.797.1198.8+4.678%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#21
L
110-114
110
114
-4
96avg 93
H24/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
W
87-81
87
81
+6
77avg 93
A25/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#16
L
116-122 OT
116
122
-6
101avg 93
A27/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
L
96-103
96
103
-7
98avg 93
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#29
W
117-107
117
107
+10
110avg 93
H03/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
120-121 OT
120
121
-1
115avg 93
H05/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#16
W
116-114 OT
116
114
+2
103avg 93
H06/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
W
110-94
110
94
+16
99avg 93
H09/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
116-98
116
98
+18
112avg 93
H11/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#15
W
116-100
116
100
+16
114avg 93
H13/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-28
25-33
27-30
33-23
23-19
30-20
18-23
16-19
28-20
28-24
24-32
28-32
19-22
28-26
24-23
25-32
27-29
30-31
26-22
34-25
25-31
32-32
33-27
22-22
22-19
35-31
20-29
29-27
31-25
29-24
22-19
28-26
25-18
30-23
27-33
34-24
27-23
25-27
23-33
41-17
215.8Avg total
110.4Scored
105.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (66)102.1104.2206.3-2.042%
Season at home (35)104.7106.0210.7-1.346%
Season away (31)99.3102.2201.4-2.939%
Last 10 (10)110.4105.4215.8+5.060%
Last 5 (5)115.6105.4221.0+10.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)102.4104.6207.0-2.242%
vs Similar (15)107.7104.4212.1+3.360%
vs Weaker (3)113.7111.0224.7+2.733%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +3.2+3.2Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +4.3+4.3
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +3.2+3.2Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -0.9-0.9Q2: +2.1+2.1Q3Q3: +2.7+2.7Q3: -2.7-2.7Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +4.3+4.3
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#1
W
55-51
55
51
+4
H25/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#9
W
49-46
49
46
+3
A27/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
W
44-39
44
39
+5
A29/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
W
65-62
65
62
+3
H02/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
57-43
57
43
+14
H04/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
W
59-49
59
49
+10
A05/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#30
L
47-49
47
49
-2
H06/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#23
L
54-57
54
57
-3
A10/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#13
L
54-58
54
58
-4
A12/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#5
L
46-53
46
53
-7
A13/03
NBA
103.7Avg total
53.0Scored
50.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)49.649.999.5-0.343%-
Last 30 at home (10)50.247.697.8+2.650%-
Last 30 away (20)49.351.1100.4-1.840%-
Last 10 (10)53.050.7103.7+2.360%-
Last 5 (5)52.053.2105.2-1.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)49.551.2100.8-1.825%-
vs Similar (17)49.349.498.7-0.147%-
vs Weaker ◀ (9)50.250.3100.6-0.144%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#21
L
50-61
50
61
-11
H24/02
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#6
W
53-39
53
39
+14
A25/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#16
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A27/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#17
L
47-48
47
48
-1
H01/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#29
L
57-60
57
60
-3
H03/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#28
L
57-63
57
63
-6
H05/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#16
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H06/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#24
W
60-49
60
49
+11
H09/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#27
W
55-41
55
41
+14
H11/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#15
W
52-50
52
50
+2
H13/03
NBA
104.9Avg total
54.4Scored
50.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.053.9106.9-0.940%-
Last 30 at home (19)53.655.1108.7-1.437%-
Last 30 away (11)51.851.9103.7-0.145%-
Last 10 (10)54.450.5104.9+3.960%-
Last 5 (5)56.250.6106.8+5.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (12)52.654.2106.8-1.742%-
vs Similar (15)53.052.5105.5+0.547%-
vs Weaker (3)54.359.3113.7-5.00%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 108.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀64%
🏀🏀🏀17%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers69.6 pts a game · 64% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers18.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.2 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers70.334.8
49.5%
49.0%69.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers15.26.1
40.1%
35.3%18.3
🏀 Free throws25.620.2
78.9%
75.5%20.2
They take 85.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 15.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 18% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 110.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀60%
🏀🏀🏀24%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers66.0 pts a game · 60% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 24% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.3 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 102.3 points a game
58%
25%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers65.633.0
50.3%
49.0%66.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.38.7
34.4%
35.3%26.1
🏀 Free throws23.518.3
77.9%
75.5%18.3
They take 90.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 28% of their shots are threes (league average: 29%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Mar 2016 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWLWWWWWLL
Denver Nuggets
WWWWLWLLWL
#8
League position
#22
+5.6
Net rating
+4.9
108.7
Offensive rating
108.4
103.1
Defensive rating
103.5
51.4%
Effective FG%
50.7%
47.8%
Opp. effective FG%
50.3%
13.7%
Turnover %
13.4%
27.5%
Off. rebound %
27.5%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.26
40.1%
3-point %
34.4%
55.7%
Assist %
58.5%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence108.7 · 108.4Defence103.1 · 103.5Shooting51.4% · 50.7%3-point %40.1% · 34.4%Ball care13.7% · 13.4%Off. rebounds27.5% · 27.5%Free throws0.30 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/16AToronto Raptors104-112 OT
12/03/16AChicago Bulls118-96
10/03/16AMilwaukee Bucks108-114
06/03/16HPhiladelphia 76ers103-98
05/03/16APhiladelphia 76ers112-102
04/03/16HPhoenix Suns108-92
02/03/16HChicago Bulls129-111
29/02/16ANew York Knicks98-81
27/02/16ABoston Celtics89-101
25/02/16HGolden State Warriors112-118
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/03/16HWashington Wizards116-100
11/03/16HPhoenix Suns116-98
09/03/16HNew York Knicks110-94
06/03/16HDallas Mavericks116-114 OT
05/03/16HBrooklyn Nets120-121 OT
03/03/16HLos Angeles Lakers117-107
01/03/16HMemphis Grizzlies96-103
27/02/16ADallas Mavericks116-122 OT
25/02/16ALos Angeles Clippers87-81
24/02/16HSacramento Kings110-114

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL58%
HomeWLWWW64%
AwayWWLWL52%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games663333
Win %58%64%52%
Points / game98.5100.996.1
Allowed / game97.497.197.7
Point differential+1.1+3.8-1.7
Avg total195.9198.0193.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%33%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won87% (15)86% (7)88% (8)
Overtime %8%9%6%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2015-16
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW42%
HomeLWWWW46%
AwayLWLWL39%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games663531
Win %42%46%39%
Points / game102.1104.799.3
Allowed / game104.2106.0102.2
Point differential-2.0-1.3-2.9
Avg total206.3210.7201.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%14%16%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (24)60% (15)56% (9)
Overtime %9%9%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors6559691%115.5104.6+10.9
2 San Antonio Spurs66561085%104.692.3+12.2
3 Cleveland Cavaliers65471872%103.997.5+6.4
4 Toronto Raptors64442069%102.998.4+4.5
5 Oklahoma City Thunder66442267%109.5103.0+6.5
6 Los Angeles Clippers65422365%104.6100.6+4.1
7 Boston Celtics66392759%106.1101.9+4.2
8 Memphis Grizzlies66392759%99.299.9-0.7
9 Miami Heat66382858%98.597.4+1.1
10 Atlanta Hawks67382957%102.198.6+3.4
11 Charlotte Hornets66372956%103.2101.0+2.2
12 Indiana Pacers66353153%101.9100.5+1.4
13 Portland Trail Blazers67353252%104.2103.0+1.2
14 Detroit Pistons66343252%102.0100.9+1.1
15 Dallas Mavericks67343351%102.4102.8-0.3
16 Houston Rockets66333350%105.8107.0-1.3
17 Chicago Bulls64323250%101.5102.9-1.4
18 Utah Jazz66313547%98.097.3+0.7
19 Washington Wizards65303546%102.5104.8-2.3
20 Milwaukee Bucks67293843%99.6103.1-3.5
21 Orlando Magic65283743%100.6102.8-2.1
22 Denver Nuggets66283842%102.1104.2-2.0
23 New York Knicks68284041%99.1101.4-2.2
24 Sacramento Kings65254038%106.7109.5-2.8
25 New Orleans Pelicans65244137%102.7106.0-3.3
26 Minnesota Timberwolves66214532%101.3105.5-4.2
27 Brooklyn Nets66184827%97.7104.3-6.6
28 Phoenix Suns66174926%100.7108.0-7.3
29 Los Angeles Lakers67145321%97.9106.8-9.0
30 Philadelphia 76ers6695714%96.8107.3-10.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat36282634124
Denver Nuggets33292928119
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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