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Miami Heat vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 09 Jan 2019
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 99-103
18-24 34-25 24-27 23-27
Position#17
Record22-22
FormWLWWL
Points / game107.3
Allowed / game106.8
vs
Position#4
Record29-13
FormWWWWL
Points / game110.5
Allowed / game105.6
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets
21 Mar 2027
MIA v DEN
upcoming
29 Dec 2025
MIA147
DEN123
17 Jan 2025
MIA113
DEN133
13 Mar 2024
MIA88
DEN100
09 Jun 2023
MIA95
DEN108
07 Jun 2023
MIA94
DEN109
13 Feb 2023
MIA108
DEN112
29 Nov 2021
MIA111
DEN120
08 Aug 2021
MIA97
DEN77
27 Jan 2021
MIA82
DEN109
08 Jan 2019
MIA99
DEN103
19 Mar 2018
MIA149
DEN141
02 Apr 2017
MIA113
DEN116
14 Mar 2016
MIA124
DEN119
20 Mar 2015
MIA108
DEN91
14 Mar 2014
MIA107
DEN111
03 Nov 2012
MIA119
DEN116
19 Mar 2011
MIA103
DEN98
06 Nov 2009
MIA96
DEN88
10 Feb 2009
MIA82
DEN99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#25
W
102-96
102
96
+6
A17/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
W
101-99
101
99
+2
H21/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
94-87
94
87
+7
H23/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
W
115-91
115
91
+24
A23/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#2
L
104-106
104
106
-2
H27/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#28
W
118-94
118
94
+24
H29/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
104-113
104
113
-9
H30/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#28
W
117-92
117
92
+25
A03/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#22
W
115-109
115
109
+6
H05/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
82-106
82
106
-24
A06/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-28
24-23
28-22
17-23
21-33
32-25
29-18
19-23
21-8
16-30
35-20
22-29
28-17
25-27
37-27
25-20
31-23
27-21
21-37
25-25
29-30
27-22
26-17
36-25
19-30
35-25
23-31
27-27
22-23
36-20
35-30
24-19
31-24
30-34
34-28
20-23
16-23
21-15
21-41
24-27
204.5Avg total
105.2Scored
99.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (44)107.3106.8214.1+0.650%
Season at home (23)107.0106.4213.4+0.652%
Season away (21)107.7107.1214.9+0.648%
Last 10 (10)105.299.3204.5+5.970%
Last 5 (5)107.2102.8210.0+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)100.0104.7204.7-4.750%
vs Similar ◀ (18)105.5105.2210.7+0.350%
vs Weaker (6)108.0100.2208.2+7.867%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toronto Raptors
#2
W
95-86
95
86
+9
H17/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
126-118
126
118
+8
H19/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#10
L
111-132
111
132
-21
A22/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
L
103-111
103
111
-8
A27/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
W
102-99
102
99
+3
H29/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
122-118
122
118
+4
A30/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
W
115-108
115
108
+7
H02/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
W
117-113
117
113
+4
A04/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
123-110
123
110
+13
H05/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
113-125
113
125
-12
A08/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-23
16-24
29-25
27-14
34-33
40-36
31-26
21-23
26-34
33-34
27-35
25-29
26-34
27-21
22-22
28-34
31-23
30-24
17-28
24-24
36-16
26-33
28-29
32-40
28-32
27-24
27-28
33-24
30-30
23-36
31-18
33-29
31-26
27-30
31-28
34-26
35-33
25-37
29-26
24-29
224.7Avg total
112.7Scored
112.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)110.5105.6216.2+4.969%
Season at home (19)112.8101.7214.5+11.284%
Season away (23)108.7108.9217.6-0.357%
Last 10 (10)112.7112.0224.7+0.770%
Last 5 (5)118.0114.8232.8+3.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)106.0112.5218.5-6.50%
vs Similar ◀ (14)107.9105.2213.1+2.671%
vs Weaker (14)113.1106.4219.5+6.664%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.2+1.2Q1: +1.6+1.6Q2Q2: +3.1+3.1Q2: -2.5-2.5Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +0.7+0.7Q4Q4: -0.2-0.2Q4: +0.9+0.9
Miami HeatDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#25
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A17/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
53-58
53
58
-5
H21/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
37-38
37
38
-1
H23/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
W
53-44
53
44
+9
A23/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#2
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H27/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#28
W
56-52
56
52
+4
H29/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#21
L
54-55
54
55
-1
H30/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#28
W
58-43
58
43
+15
A03/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#22
W
61-58
61
58
+3
H05/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
L
37-38
37
38
-1
A06/01
NBA
100.5Avg total
52.4Scored
48.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.551.4104.9+2.160%-
Last 30 at home (16)53.852.2106.1+1.656%-
Last 30 away (14)53.150.4103.5+2.664%-
Last 10 (10)52.448.1100.5+4.360%-
Last 5 (5)53.249.2102.4+4.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)48.053.0101.0-5.017%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)55.251.9107.1+3.372%-
vs Weaker (6)53.848.3102.2+5.567%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Toronto Raptors
#2
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H17/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
74-69
74
69
+5
H19/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#10
L
59-68
59
68
-9
A22/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
L
53-55
53
55
-2
A27/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
W
61-47
61
47
+14
H29/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#29
W
62-49
62
49
+13
A30/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
L
55-56
55
56
-1
H02/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#19
L
53-66
53
66
-13
A04/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H05/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
60-70
60
70
-10
A08/01
NBA
115.7Avg total
57.4Scored
58.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.054.7111.7+2.457%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.653.3109.9+3.367%-
Last 30 away (15)57.556.1113.5+1.447%-
Last 10 (10)57.458.3115.7-0.940%-
Last 5 (5)57.659.4117.0-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)57.554.5112.0+3.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)56.352.3108.6+4.064%-
vs Weaker (14)57.757.1114.8+0.650%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 105.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.129.3
51.3%
51.7%58.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.510.5
33.3%
35.4%31.5
🏀 Free throws22.415.1
67.4%
76.6%15.1
They take 88.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.2 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.729.5
52.0%
51.7%59.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.512.4
37.0%
35.4%37.2
🏀 Free throws21.916.5
75.3%
76.6%16.5
They take 90.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Jan 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWWLWLWWWW
Denver Nuggets
LWWWWWLLWW
#17
League position
#4
+6.0
Net rating
+0.7
107.6
Offensive rating
114.1
101.6
Defensive rating
113.4
50.8%
Effective FG%
53.3%
48.6%
Opp. effective FG%
55.0%
13.2%
Turnover %
13.0%
28.8%
Off. rebound %
29.8%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.24
33.3%
3-point %
37.0%
62.6%
Assist %
66.8%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence107.6 · 114.1Defence101.6 · 113.4Shooting50.8% · 53.3%3-point %33.3% · 37.0%Ball care13.2% · 13.0%Off. rebounds28.8% · 29.8%Free throws0.25 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
Denver Nuggets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/01/19AAtlanta Hawks82-106
05/01/19HWashington Wizards115-109
03/01/19ACleveland Cavaliers117-92
30/12/18HMinnesota Timberwolves104-113
29/12/18HCleveland Cavaliers118-94
27/12/18HToronto Raptors104-106
23/12/18AOrlando Magic115-91
23/12/18HMilwaukee Bucks94-87
21/12/18HHouston Rockets101-99
17/12/18ANew Orleans Pelicans102-96
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/01/19AHouston Rockets113-125
05/01/19HCharlotte Hornets123-110
04/01/19ASacramento Kings117-113
02/01/19HNew York Knicks115-108
30/12/18APhoenix Suns122-118
29/12/18HSan Antonio Spurs102-99
27/12/18ASan Antonio Spurs103-111
22/12/18ALos Angeles Clippers111-132
19/12/18HDallas Mavericks126-118
17/12/18HToronto Raptors95-86

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL50%
HomeWLWLW52%
AwayWWWWL48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games442321
Win %50%52%48%
Points / game107.3107.0107.7
Allowed / game106.8106.4107.1
Point differential+0.6+0.6+0.6
Avg total214.1213.4214.9
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%13%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (14)57% (7)43% (7)
Overtime %2%0%5%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL69%
HomeWWWWW84%
AwayLLWWL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games421923
Win %69%84%57%
Points / game110.5112.8108.7
Allowed / game105.6101.7108.9
Point differential+4.9+11.2-0.3
Avg total216.2214.5217.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%42%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won85% (13)75% (4)89% (9)
Overtime %5%0%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks43311272%118.2107.9+10.3
2 Toronto Raptors46331372%113.6107.7+5.9
3 Denver Nuggets42291369%110.5105.6+4.9
4 Indiana Pacers44291566%107.7102.4+5.3
5 Philadelphia 76ers44291566%115.0112.4+2.6
6 Oklahoma City Thunder43281565%111.3105.4+5.9
7 Los Angeles Clippers42261662%115.5113.0+2.5
8 Houston Rockets43261760%111.1108.8+2.3
9 Golden State Warriors45271860%116.0112.3+3.7
10 San Antonio Spurs46271959%111.5107.9+3.6
11 Portland Trail Blazers46271959%111.4109.7+1.7
12 Boston Celtics43251858%111.0105.5+5.5
13 Los Angeles Lakers47252253%112.2111.4+0.8
14 Utah Jazz44232152%108.7105.3+3.3
15 Charlotte Hornets44232152%113.1111.4+1.7
16 Miami Heat44222250%107.3106.8+0.6
17 Brooklyn Nets46222448%110.2111.4-1.3
18 Sacramento Kings45212447%114.1116.9-2.8
19 Minnesota Timberwolves45202544%111.1112.2-1.2
20 Memphis Grizzlies45202544%101.6104.1-2.4
21 Dallas Mavericks43192444%110.3110.3-0.0
22 Detroit Pistons43192444%106.9109.3-2.3
23 Washington Wizards45192642%112.8116.0-3.3
24 New Orleans Pelicans46192741%116.2115.7+0.5
25 Orlando Magic44182641%102.6106.5-3.9
26 Atlanta Hawks44143032%109.5117.4-7.9
27 New York Knicks45133229%107.8115.0-7.2
28 Chicago Bulls45123327%100.6109.4-8.8
29 Phoenix Suns45103522%105.6114.8-9.2
30 Cleveland Cavaliers45103522%102.4112.1-9.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat1834242399
Denver Nuggets24252727103
← all games of the day
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