PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 10 Feb 2018
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 91-85
19-23 23-23 30-8 19-31
Position#16
Record29-26
FormLLLLL
Points / game100.5
Allowed / game101.4
vs
Position#15
Record30-23
FormWLWWW
Points / game104.6
Allowed / game104.6
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2017-18
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#20
W
106-105
106
105
+1
103avg 93
A21/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#1
L
90-99
90
99
-9
80avg 93
A23/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#24
L
88-89
88
89
-1
78avg 93
H26/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
W
95-91
95
91
+4
91avg 93
H28/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#27
W
95-88
95
88
+7
91avg 93
A30/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
L
89-91
89
91
-2
79avg 93
A01/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
97-103
97
103
-6
85avg 93
A03/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
107-111
107
111
-4
98avg 93
A04/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
L
109-111
109
111
-2
98avg 93
H06/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#1
L
101-109
101
109
-8
91avg 93
H08/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-27
26-21
16-35
33-22
33-25
17-21
18-25
22-28
17-19
30-28
25-24
16-18
22-26
32-22
17-30
24-13
22-26
29-20
24-15
20-27
21-27
29-21
22-24
17-19
23-24
18-27
19-35
37-17
26-27
24-27
27-22
30-35
35-26
25-33
27-34
22-18
24-35
33-26
23-22
21-26
197.4Avg total
97.7Scored
99.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (55)100.5101.4201.9-1.053%
Season at home (25)100.6102.3202.9-1.852%
Season away (30)100.4100.7201.0-0.353%
Last 10 (10)97.799.7197.4-2.030%
Last 5 (5)100.6105.0205.6-4.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)94.5100.0194.5-5.525%
vs Similar ◀ (19)99.998.8198.7+1.168%
vs Weaker (7)106.1101.6207.7+4.643%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#16
L
101-106
101
106
-5
93avg 95
H18/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
94-116
94
116
-22
80avg 95
A21/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#30
W
109-105
109
105
+4
101avg 95
H23/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#23
W
116-91
116
91
+25
116avg 95
H27/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#25
W
110-96
110
96
+14
110avg 95
A28/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
107-95
107
95
+12
105avg 95
H30/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#14
L
89-108
89
108
-19
75avg 95
A02/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#22
W
92-90
92
90
+2
80avg 95
H03/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#23
W
109-94
109
94
+15
108avg 95
A04/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#22
W
103-89
103
89
+14
96avg 95
A07/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-30
32-22
22-26
22-28
29-37
26-24
25-23
14-32
30-26
23-27
23-26
33-26
33-15
25-20
23-37
35-19
26-20
35-22
25-30
24-24
28-30
27-23
28-22
24-20
17-23
22-37
22-19
28-29
28-29
27-26
19-19
18-16
36-22
26-19
21-31
26-22
25-26
25-20
26-17
27-26
202.0Avg total
103.0Scored
99.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (53)104.6104.6209.2+0.157%
Season at home (27)104.9103.4208.4+1.567%
Season away (26)104.3105.8210.1-1.446%
Last 10 (10)103.099.0202.0+4.070%
Last 5 (5)100.095.2195.2+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)107.2115.7222.8-8.517%
vs Similar ◀ (19)104.6101.2205.8+3.568%
vs Weaker (5)108.8106.8215.6+2.060%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: -4.8-4.8Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +0.9+0.9
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.8-0.8Q1: +1.9+1.9Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: +2.8+2.8Q3Q3: -4.8-4.8Q3: -1.6-1.6Q4Q4: +1.9+1.9Q4: +0.9+0.9
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#20
W
57-48
57
48
+9
A21/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#1
W
50-46
50
46
+4
A23/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#24
D
47-47
47
47
+0
H26/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#20
W
54-48
54
48
+6
H28/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#27
W
51-46
51
46
+5
A30/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
W
50-48
50
48
+2
A01/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
41-51
41
51
-10
A03/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#19
L
50-54
50
54
-4
A04/02
NBA
Orlando Magic
#26
W
60-59
60
59
+1
H06/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#1
L
57-61
57
61
-4
H08/02
NBA
102.5Avg total
51.7Scored
50.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.450.1100.4+0.353%-
Last 30 at home (14)50.650.6101.3+0.050%-
Last 30 away (16)50.149.699.7+0.656%-
Last 10 (10)51.750.8102.5+0.960%-
Last 5 (5)51.654.6106.2-3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)49.849.899.5+0.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)50.648.899.4+1.863%-
vs Weaker (7)50.053.7103.7-3.729%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Miami Heat
#16
W
57-52
57
52
+5
H18/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
L
55-61
55
61
-6
A21/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#30
D
53-53
53
53
+0
H23/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#23
W
58-35
58
35
+23
H27/01
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#25
W
61-42
61
42
+19
A28/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#5
W
55-53
55
53
+2
H30/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#14
L
39-60
39
60
-21
A02/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#22
D
55-55
55
55
+0
H03/02
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#23
W
62-41
62
41
+21
A04/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#22
W
50-46
50
46
+4
A07/02
NBA
104.3Avg total
54.5Scored
49.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.052.9106.9+1.150%-
Last 30 at home (16)54.953.4108.3+1.644%-
Last 30 away (14)52.952.4105.2+0.557%-
Last 10 (10)54.549.8104.3+4.760%-
Last 5 (5)52.251.0103.2+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)54.858.8113.7-4.017%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)53.351.5104.7+1.863%-
vs Weaker (5)55.651.2106.8+4.440%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 97.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀58%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.2 pts a game · 58% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.1 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.4 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 106.1 points a game
55%
30%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.828.1
51.3%
51.0%56.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.59.7
31.8%
36.1%29.1
🏀 Free throws18.112.4
68.5%
76.5%12.4
They take 85.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 34%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 103.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.8 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 106.1 points a game
55%
30%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.927.9
51.8%
51.0%55.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers25.49.1
35.8%
36.1%27.3
🏀 Free throws25.719.9
77.4%
76.5%19.9
They take 79.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 25.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 34%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 10 Feb 2018 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLLLLWWLLW
Milwaukee Bucks
WWWLWWWWLL
#16
League position
#15
-2.1
Net rating
+4.1
101.7
Offensive rating
106.4
103.7
Defensive rating
102.3
50.0%
Effective FG%
52.4%
49.9%
Opp. effective FG%
49.1%
14.2%
Turnover %
13.4%
24.5%
Off. rebound %
19.6%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.32
31.8%
3-point %
35.8%
59.3%
Assist %
60.5%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence101.7 · 106.4Defence103.7 · 102.3Shooting50.0% · 52.4%3-point %31.8% · 35.8%Ball care14.2% · 13.4%Off. rebounds24.5% · 19.6%Free throws0.21 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)30% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/02/18HHouston Rockets101-109
06/02/18HOrlando Magic109-111
04/02/18ADetroit Pistons107-111
03/02/18APhiladelphia 76ers97-103
01/02/18ACleveland Cavaliers89-91
30/01/18ADallas Mavericks95-88
28/01/18HCharlotte Hornets95-91
26/01/18HSacramento Kings88-89
23/01/18AHouston Rockets90-99
21/01/18ACharlotte Hornets106-105
DateH/AOpponentScore
07/02/18ANew York Knicks103-89
04/02/18ABrooklyn Nets109-94
03/02/18HNew York Knicks92-90
02/02/18AMinnesota Timberwolves89-108
30/01/18HPhiladelphia 76ers107-95
28/01/18AChicago Bulls110-96
27/01/18HBrooklyn Nets116-91
23/01/18HPhoenix Suns109-105
21/01/18APhiladelphia 76ers94-116
18/01/18HMiami Heat101-106

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2017-18
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL53%
HomeWLWLL52%
AwayLWLLL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games552530
Win %53%52%53%
Points / game100.5100.6100.4
Allowed / game101.4102.3100.7
Point differential-1.0-1.8-0.3
Avg total201.9202.9201.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%16%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (18)67% (9)67% (9)
Overtime %4%8%0%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2017-18
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW57%
HomeLWWWW67%
AwayLWLWW46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games532726
Win %57%67%46%
Points / game104.6104.9104.3
Allowed / game104.6103.4105.8
Point differential+0.1+1.5-1.4
Avg total209.2208.4210.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%15%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (15)89% (9)17% (6)
Overtime %4%0%8%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors55421376%115.5108.0+7.5
2 Houston Rockets53401375%114.0105.8+8.2
3 Toronto Raptors54381670%111.4103.3+8.1
4 Boston Celtics57401770%102.998.7+4.2
5 San Antonio Spurs56352162%101.497.7+3.7
6 Minnesota Timberwolves57342360%109.5106.3+3.2
7 Cleveland Cavaliers54322259%109.8110.1-0.4
8 Milwaukee Bucks53302357%104.6104.6+0.1
9 Washington Wizards55312456%107.3105.7+1.7
10 Oklahoma City Thunder56312555%106.2102.9+3.3
11 Indiana Pacers56312555%106.5105.4+1.1
12 Portland Trail Blazers55302555%104.6103.6+1.0
13 Denver Nuggets54292554%107.0105.9+1.1
14 Los Angeles Clippers53282553%107.6106.8+0.8
15 Miami Heat55292653%100.5101.4-1.0
16 Philadelphia 76ers52272552%107.5106.0+1.5
17 New Orleans Pelicans54282652%110.2110.9-0.7
18 Detroit Pistons54272750%103.2103.1+0.1
19 Utah Jazz54262848%103.2102.1+1.1
20 Charlotte Hornets54233143%106.3106.4-0.1
21 Los Angeles Lakers54233143%106.7109.1-2.4
22 New York Knicks56233341%103.5105.6-2.1
23 Chicago Bulls53183534%103.5109.2-5.8
24 Brooklyn Nets56193734%105.1109.1-4.0
25 Memphis Grizzlies54183633%99.0102.4-3.4
26 Orlando Magic54183633%105.7109.9-4.2
27 Phoenix Suns56183832%104.2112.5-8.2
28 Sacramento Kings53173632%98.4106.5-8.1
29 Dallas Mavericks55173831%101.5103.9-2.4
30 Atlanta Hawks56173930%103.7107.9-4.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat1923301991
Milwaukee Bucks232383185
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.