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Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 22 Oct 2025
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 125-121
38-39 31-26 21-26 35-30
Position#13
Record-
FormLLWLL
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
vs
Position#17
Record-
FormLLWLW
Points / game-
Allowed / game-
USANBA· Kia Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Orlando Magic v Miami Heat
05 Apr 2027
ORL v MIA
upcoming
12 Feb 2027
ORL v MIA
upcoming
05 Dec 2025
ORL106
MIA105
22 Oct 2025
ORL125
MIA121
26 Dec 2024
ORL88
MIA89
21 Dec 2024
ORL121
MIA114
21 Jan 2024
ORL105
MIA87
20 Dec 2023
ORL106
MIA115
11 Mar 2023
ORL126
MIA114
11 Feb 2023
ORL103
MIA107
10 Apr 2022
ORL125
MIA111
17 Dec 2021
ORL105
MIA115
14 Mar 2021
ORL97
MIA102
23 Dec 2020
ORL113
MIA107
01 Feb 2020
ORL89
MIA102
03 Jan 2020
ORL105
MIA85
23 Dec 2018
ORL91
MIA115
17 Oct 2018
ORL104
MIA101
30 Dec 2017
ORL111
MIA117
18 Oct 2017
ORL116
MIA109
03 Mar 2017
ORL110
MIA99
26 Oct 2016
ORL96
MIA108
08 Apr 2016
ORL112
MIA109
26 Dec 2015
ORL101
MIA108
25 Feb 2015
ORL90
MIA93
22 Nov 2014
ORL92
MIA99
04 Jan 2014
ORL94
MIA110
20 Nov 2013
ORL92
MIA120
25 Mar 2013
ORL94
MIA108
31 Dec 2012
ORL110
MIA112
13 Mar 2012
ORL104
MIA98
08 Feb 2012
ORL102
MIA89
21 Dec 2011
ORL104
MIA100
03 Feb 2011
ORL100
MIA104
24 Nov 2010
ORL104
MIA95
28 Feb 2010
ORL96
MIA80
25 Nov 2009
ORL98
MIA99
22 Feb 2009
ORL122
MIA99
02 Jan 2009
ORL86
MIA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Orlando Magic winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Orlando MagicUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMagic
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
119-112
119
112
+7
111avg 95
H08/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
96-76
96
76
+20
87avg 95
H09/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
129-115
129
115
+14
128avg 95
A11/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
L
105-117
105
117
-12
96avg 95
A13/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
120-95
120
95
+25
119avg 95
H15/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
86-103
86
103
-17
74avg 95
A20/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
100-109
100
109
-9
84avg 95
A23/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
95-93
95
93
+2
80avg 95
H25/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
98-107
98
107
-9
84avg 95
H27/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
89-120
89
120
-31
73avg 95
A30/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-31
36-26
26-27
27-28
27-21
22-20
31-20
16-15
29-29
43-20
37-27
20-39
24-31
22-27
38-34
21-25
32-17
29-30
18-26
41-22
18-26
31-22
18-30
19-25
21-23
26-27
24-31
29-28
31-27
18-32
24-11
22-23
29-32
19-21
27-26
23-28
27-23
22-24
13-36
27-37
208.4Avg total
103.7Scored
104.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)103.7104.7208.4-1.050%
Last 5 (5)93.6106.4200.0-12.820%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)95.3105.0200.3-9.725%
vs Similar ◀ (13)114.2108.8223.0+5.354%
vs Weaker (5)112.697.8210.4+14.8100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#29
L
118-119
118
119
-1
111avg 102
H13/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
109-90
109
90
+19
108avg 102
A16/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
123-114 OT
123
114
+9
122avg 102
A18/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
100-121
100
121
-21
93avg 102
A20/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
112-121
112
121
-9
108avg 102
A23/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
87-124
87
124
-37
72avg 102
H26/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
83-138
83
138
-55
66avg 102
H28/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#4
W
82-69
82
69
+13
92avg 102
H05/07
California Classic
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
83-103
83
103
-20
70avg 102
H06/07
California Classic
Golden State Warriors
#3
W
93-79
93
79
+14
92avg 102
A08/07
California Classic
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-30
32-36
26-28
32-25
39-28
32-19
17-27
21-16
33-24
29-29
24-24
20-29
24-31
30-31
25-25
21-34
24-25
27-43
29-25
32-28
20-33
22-29
22-26
23-36
17-43
16-29
30-39
20-27
12-13
20-16
24-22
26-18
20-26
18-25
24-25
21-27
23-22
25-14
22-21
23-22
206.8Avg total
99.0Scored
107.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Seasonno games
Season at homeno games
Season awayno games
Last 10 (10)99.0107.8206.8-8.840%
Last 5 (5)85.6102.6188.2-17.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)99.8115.7215.4-15.98%
vs Similar ◀ (9)110.8108.3219.1+2.444%
vs Weaker (9)113.997.2211.1+16.778%
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -3.5-3.5Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: -2.3-2.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: -3.5-3.5Q2Q2: +1.9+1.9Q2: -2.0-2.0Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: -2.5-2.5Q4: -2.3-2.3
Orlando MagicMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Orlando MagicLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
66-57
66
57
+9
H08/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
49-41
49
41
+8
H09/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
72-49
72
49
+23
A11/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
L
46-58
46
58
-12
A13/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
61-47
61
47
+14
H15/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
49-48
49
48
+1
A20/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A23/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
49-59
49
59
-10
H25/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
48-53
48
53
-5
H27/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
49-47
49
47
+2
A30/04
NBA
104.5Avg total
53.6Scored
50.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.351.7107.1+3.657%-
Last 30 at home (16)54.151.8105.9+2.356%-
Last 30 away (14)56.751.6108.4+5.157%-
Last 10 (10)53.650.9104.5+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)48.451.499.8-3.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)48.752.4101.1-3.833%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)59.152.8111.8+6.362%-
vs Weaker (5)61.647.4109.0+14.2100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#29
L
60-66
60
66
-6
H13/04
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
71-47
71
47
+24
A16/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#18
W
62-53
62
53
+9
A18/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
54-62
54
62
-8
A20/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
51-68
51
68
-17
A23/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
42-62
42
62
-20
H26/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
33-72
33
72
-39
H28/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#4
W
32-29
32
29
+3
H05/07
California Classic
Los Angeles Lakers
#1
L
38-51
38
51
-13
H06/07
California Classic
Golden State Warriors
#3
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A08/07
California Classic
103.7Avg total
49.1Scored
54.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)53.952.7106.7+1.260%-
Last 30 at home (18)51.852.7104.6-0.956%-
Last 30 away (12)57.152.8109.8+4.367%-
Last 10 (10)49.154.6103.7-5.540%-
Last 5 (5)38.650.088.6-11.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (12)49.956.5106.4-6.633%-
vs Similar ◀ (9)56.951.9108.8+5.067%-
vs Weaker (9)56.348.6104.9+7.889%-
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Orlando Magictheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orlando Magic: 103.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.0 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.028.0
53.8%
54.8%56.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.111.0
32.3%
35.8%33.0
🏀 Free throws20.514.7
71.7%
78.1%14.7
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 98.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.1 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.825.6
55.9%
54.8%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.311.5
33.5%
35.8%34.5
🏀 Free throws17.813.1
73.6%
78.1%13.1
They take 80.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 Oct 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Orlando Magic
LLWLLWLWWW
Miami Heat
WLWLLLLWWL
#13
League position
#17
-1.0
Net rating
-9.1
108.6
Offensive rating
104.6
109.7
Defensive rating
113.7
51.7%
Effective FG%
53.5%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
55.3%
12.4%
Turnover %
16.5%
26.1%
Off. rebound %
23.2%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.22
32.3%
3-point %
33.5%
57.7%
Assist %
60.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence108.6 · 104.6Defence109.7 · 113.7Shooting51.7% · 53.5%3-point %32.3% · 33.5%Ball care12.4% · 16.5%Off. rebounds26.1% · 23.2%Free throws0.24 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)50% · 40%
■ Orlando Magic   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Orlando Magic wins
6
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
30/04/25ABoston Celtics89-120
27/04/25HBoston Celtics98-107
25/04/25HBoston Celtics95-93
23/04/25ABoston Celtics100-109
20/04/25ABoston Celtics86-103
15/04/25HAtlanta Hawks120-95
13/04/25AAtlanta Hawks105-117
11/04/25AIndiana Pacers129-115
09/04/25HBoston Celtics96-76
08/04/25HAtlanta Hawks119-112
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
08/07/25AGolden State Warriors93-79
06/07/25HLos Angeles Lakers83-103
05/07/25HSan Antonio Spurs82-69
28/04/25HCleveland Cavaliers83-138
26/04/25HCleveland Cavaliers87-124
23/04/25ACleveland Cavaliers112-121
20/04/25ACleveland Cavaliers100-121
18/04/25AAtlanta Hawks123-114 OT
16/04/25AChicago Bulls109-90
13/04/25HWashington Wizards118-119

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Orlando Magic
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
Overall--
Home--
Away--
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games---
Win %---
Points / game---
Allowed / game---
Point differential---
Avg total---
Over main line---
Win by 10+---
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %---
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors110100%119.0109.0+10.0
2 Oklahoma City Thunder110100%125.0124.0+1.0
3 Houston Rockets1010%124.0125.0-1.0
4 Los Angeles Lakers1010%109.0119.0-10.0
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Orlando Magic38312135125
Miami Heat39262630121
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