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Miami Heat vs Orlando Magic Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 28 Jan 2025
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 125-119 (OT)
27-29 28-30 24-29 29-20 17-11
Position#20
Record22-22
FormLWLLW
Points / game110.7
Allowed / game110.2
vs
Position#15
Record24-22
FormLLLLW
Points / game103.7
Allowed / game104.3
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Miami Heat v Orlando Magic
10 Mar 2027
MIA v ORL
upcoming
14 Mar 2026
MIA117
ORL121
28 Jan 2026
MIA124
ORL133
27 Jan 2025
MIA125
ORL119
23 Oct 2024
MIA97
ORL116
06 Feb 2024
MIA121
ORL95
12 Jan 2024
MIA99
ORL96
09 Apr 2023
MIA123
ORL110
27 Jan 2023
MIA110
ORL105
26 Dec 2021
MIA93
ORL83
25 Oct 2021
MIA107
ORL90
11 Mar 2021
MIA111
ORL103
04 Mar 2020
MIA116
ORL113
27 Jan 2020
MIA113
ORL92
26 Mar 2019
MIA99
ORL104
04 Dec 2018
MIA90
ORL105
05 Feb 2018
MIA109
ORL111
26 Dec 2017
MIA107
ORL89
13 Feb 2017
MIA107
ORL116
20 Dec 2016
MIA130
ORL136
10 Apr 2016
MIA118
ORL96
25 Mar 2016
MIA108
ORL97
13 Apr 2015
MIA100
ORL93
29 Dec 2014
MIA101
ORL102
01 Mar 2014
MIA112
ORL98
23 Nov 2013
MIA101
ORL99
17 Apr 2013
MIA105
ORL93
06 Mar 2013
MIA97
ORL96
18 Mar 2012
MIA91
ORL81
19 Feb 2012
MIA90
ORL78
18 Dec 2011
MIA118
ORL85
03 Mar 2011
MIA96
ORL99
29 Oct 2010
MIA96
ORL70
18 Mar 2010
MIA102
ORL108
17 Dec 2009
MIA104
ORL86
30 Mar 2009
MIA95
ORL101
24 Jan 2009
MIA103
ORL97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Orlando Magic winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
114-98
114
98
+16
112avg 104
A08/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
97-92
97
92
+5
89avg 104
A10/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
119-98
119
98
+21
114avg 104
A12/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
98-109
98
109
-11
90avg 104
A14/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
108-117
108
117
-9
108avg 104
A16/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
113-133
113
133
-20
109avg 104
H18/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
128-107
128
107
+21
130avg 104
H19/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
107-116
107
116
-9
99avg 104
H22/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
96-125
96
125
-29
86avg 104
A24/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
106-97
106
97
+9
105avg 104
A25/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-23
32-25
23-30
30-20
20-27
26-14
22-29
29-22
29-23
37-25
28-35
25-15
35-28
13-15
20-36
30-30
38-34
28-20
19-29
23-34
24-30
31-37
31-31
27-35
20-30
26-11
46-27
36-39
38-34
17-27
22-36
30-19
30-27
25-44
19-23
22-31
24-17
29-32
29-19
24-29
217.8Avg total
108.6Scored
109.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (44)110.7110.2220.8+0.550%
Season at home (20)112.7110.7223.3+2.055%
Season away (24)109.0109.8218.8-0.846%
Last 10 (10)108.6109.2217.8-0.650%
Last 5 (5)110.0115.6225.6-5.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)102.0106.8208.8-4.840%
vs Similar ◀ (19)113.9112.8226.7+1.142%
vs Weaker (6)105.0103.7208.7+1.383%
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Orlando MagicUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMagic
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#6
W
103-94
103
94
+9
98avg 98
A07/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
89-104
89
104
-15
77avg 98
H10/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
106-109
106
109
-3
93avg 98
H11/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
104-99
104
99
+5
97avg 98
H12/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
93-122
93
122
-29
70avg 98
A16/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
94-121
94
121
-27
76avg 98
A18/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
100-113
100
113
-13
82avg 98
H19/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
L
93-109
93
109
-16
81avg 98
A22/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
79-101
79
101
-22
66avg 98
H24/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
121-113
121
113
+8
110avg 98
H26/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-28
29-23
22-17
28-26
18-29
21-23
23-26
27-26
31-29
20-21
30-28
25-31
24-21
25-27
24-29
31-22
16-34
25-28
27-30
25-30
28-35
26-31
22-30
18-25
29-28
23-26
25-39
23-20
37-24
13-21
20-40
23-24
21-18
18-29
20-27
20-27
18-30
36-23
25-28
42-32
206.7Avg total
98.2Scored
108.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (46)103.7104.3208.0-0.752%
Season at home (24)105.0102.4207.4+2.762%
Season away (22)102.1106.4208.5-4.341%
Last 10 (10)98.2108.5206.7-10.330%
Last 5 (5)97.4111.4208.8-14.020%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)97.5108.5206.0-11.025%
vs Similar ◀ (17)102.8107.3210.1-4.541%
vs Weaker (8)102.098.1200.1+3.975%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: -5.6-5.6Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -0.1-0.1
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +1.4+1.4Q1: -3.0-3.0Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: -1.6-1.6Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: -5.6-5.6Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: -0.1-0.1
Miami HeatOrlando Magic
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
61-48
61
48
+13
A08/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
46-41
46
41
+5
A10/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
66-48
66
48
+18
A12/01
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
48-43
48
43
+5
A14/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
66-54
66
54
+12
A16/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
55-67
55
67
-12
H18/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#23
W
46-41
46
41
+5
H19/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
55-61
55
61
-6
H22/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
55-71
55
71
-16
A24/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#25
W
53-49
53
49
+4
A25/01
NBA
107.4Avg total
55.1Scored
52.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.754.8109.4-0.150%-
Last 30 at home (14)54.056.6110.6-2.643%-
Last 30 away (16)55.253.1108.4+2.156%-
Last 10 (10)55.152.3107.4+2.870%-
Last 5 (5)52.857.8110.6-5.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)50.450.8101.2-0.460%-
vs Similar ◀ (19)57.157.4114.4-0.337%-
vs Weaker (6)50.749.8100.5+0.883%-
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Orlando MagicLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#6
W
53-51
53
51
+2
A07/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
39-52
39
52
-13
H10/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
W
51-50
51
50
+1
H11/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#26
W
49-48
49
48
+1
H12/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#13
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A16/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
54-66
54
66
-12
A18/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
52-54
52
54
-2
H19/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#24
W
50-45
50
45
+5
A22/01
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
39-47
39
47
-8
H24/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#14
W
54-53
54
53
+1
H26/01
NBA
101.0Avg total
48.2Scored
52.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)50.554.7105.1-4.233%-
Last 30 at home (17)49.954.2104.1-4.435%-
Last 30 away (13)51.255.2106.5-4.031%-
Last 10 (10)48.252.8101.0-4.650%-
Last 5 (5)49.853.0102.8-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)45.560.2105.8-14.80%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)52.455.2107.6-2.847%-
vs Weaker (8)47.850.097.8-2.225%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 108.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀41%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.4 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers44.4 pts a game · 41% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.8 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.325.2
53.3%
54.3%50.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.914.8
36.2%
35.9%44.4
🏀 Free throws16.213.8
85.2%
77.8%13.8
They take 88.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Orlando Magictheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orlando Magic: 98.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.6 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.3 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.625.3
50.0%
54.3%50.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.910.1
28.9%
35.9%30.3
🏀 Free throws24.717.3
70.0%
77.8%17.3
They take 85.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Jan 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLLWLLLWWW
Orlando Magic
WLLLLLWLLW
#20
League position
#15
-0.6
Net rating
-10.7
110.4
Offensive rating
101.9
111.1
Defensive rating
112.6
53.7%
Effective FG%
47.3%
53.1%
Opp. effective FG%
55.8%
12.8%
Turnover %
12.8%
21.5%
Off. rebound %
25.6%
0.18
Free-throw rate
0.29
36.2%
3-point %
28.9%
68.8%
Assist %
59.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
30%

Profile

Offence110.4 · 101.9Defence111.1 · 112.6Shooting53.7% · 47.3%3-point %36.2% · 28.9%Ball care12.8% · 12.8%Off. rebounds21.5% · 25.6%Free throws0.18 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)50% · 30%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Orlando Magic
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
Orlando Magic wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/25ABrooklyn Nets106-97
24/01/25AMilwaukee Bucks96-125
22/01/25HPortland Trail Blazers107-116
19/01/25HSan Antonio Spurs128-107
18/01/25HDenver Nuggets113-133
16/01/25ALos Angeles Lakers108-117
14/01/25ALos Angeles Clippers98-109
12/01/25APortland Trail Blazers119-98
10/01/25AUtah Jazz97-92
08/01/25AGolden State Warriors114-98
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/01/25HDetroit Pistons121-113
24/01/25HPortland Trail Blazers79-101
22/01/25AToronto Raptors93-109
19/01/25HDenver Nuggets100-113
18/01/25ABoston Celtics94-121
16/01/25AMilwaukee Bucks93-122
12/01/25HPhiladelphia 76ers104-99
11/01/25HMilwaukee Bucks106-109
10/01/25HMinnesota Timberwolves89-104
07/01/25ANew York Knicks103-94

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLW50%
HomeLLLWL55%
AwayWLLLW46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games442024
Win %50%55%46%
Points / game110.7112.7109.0
Allowed / game110.2110.7109.8
Point differential+0.5+2.0-0.8
Avg total220.8223.3218.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%40%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (13)33% (3)50% (10)
Overtime %9%5%12%
Orlando Magic
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW52%
HomeLWLLW62%
AwayWWLLL41%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games462422
Win %52%62%41%
Points / game103.7105.0102.1
Allowed / game104.3102.4106.4
Point differential-0.7+2.7-4.3
Avg total208.0207.4208.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%29%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won73% (11)75% (8)67% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder4335881%116.7104.5+12.1
2 Cleveland Cavaliers4637980%121.8112.1+9.7
3 Boston Celtics46321470%117.3108.3+8.9
4 Houston Rockets42291369%115.2108.7+6.4
5 Memphis Grizzlies46311567%123.7115.0+8.7
6 New York Knicks45301567%117.6111.0+6.6
7 Denver Nuggets45281762%120.6116.0+4.6
8 Los Angeles Lakers44261859%111.5112.6-1.0
9 Los Angeles Clippers45261958%110.0106.8+3.2
10 Milwaukee Bucks41231856%114.4111.4+3.1
11 Indiana Pacers45252056%115.5114.8+0.8
12 Dallas Mavericks45242153%115.3112.0+3.3
13 Minnesota Timberwolves45242153%110.6108.1+2.5
14 Phoenix Suns44232152%112.7113.6-0.9
15 Orlando Magic46242252%103.7104.3-0.7
16 Sacramento Kings45232251%117.0115.0+2.0
17 Miami Heat44222250%110.7110.2+0.5
18 Golden State Warriors44222250%111.8111.9-0.2
19 Detroit Pistons46232350%111.8113.0-1.3
20 Atlanta Hawks43212249%116.8119.6-2.8
21 San Antonio Spurs43202347%112.0113.5-1.5
22 Chicago Bulls46192741%116.4120.0-3.5
23 Philadelphia 76ers44172739%108.1112.4-4.3
24 Portland Trail Blazers46172937%107.8115.3-7.5
25 Brooklyn Nets46143230%105.7113.4-7.7
26 Toronto Raptors45133229%111.3117.4-6.1
27 Charlotte Hornets43123128%107.5112.2-4.7
28 New Orleans Pelicans46123426%109.2117.8-8.6
29 Utah Jazz43103323%111.3118.5-7.2
30 Washington Wizards4463814%107.8122.1-14.4
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Miami Heat2728242917125
Orlando Magic2930292011119
← all games of the day
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