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Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 12 Mar 2023
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 126-114 (OT)
34-24 24-31 23-23 27-30 18-6
Position#25
Record27-40
FormLWLLL
Points / game111.3
Allowed / game114.3
vs
Position#10
Record36-32
FormLWWLW
Points / game108.5
Allowed / game109.1
USANBA
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Orlando Magic v Miami Heat
05 Apr 2027
ORL v MIA
upcoming
12 Feb 2027
ORL v MIA
upcoming
05 Dec 2025
ORL106
MIA105
22 Oct 2025
ORL125
MIA121
26 Dec 2024
ORL88
MIA89
21 Dec 2024
ORL121
MIA114
21 Jan 2024
ORL105
MIA87
20 Dec 2023
ORL106
MIA115
11 Mar 2023
ORL126
MIA114
11 Feb 2023
ORL103
MIA107
10 Apr 2022
ORL125
MIA111
17 Dec 2021
ORL105
MIA115
14 Mar 2021
ORL97
MIA102
23 Dec 2020
ORL113
MIA107
01 Feb 2020
ORL89
MIA102
03 Jan 2020
ORL105
MIA85
23 Dec 2018
ORL91
MIA115
17 Oct 2018
ORL104
MIA101
30 Dec 2017
ORL111
MIA117
18 Oct 2017
ORL116
MIA109
03 Mar 2017
ORL110
MIA99
26 Oct 2016
ORL96
MIA108
08 Apr 2016
ORL112
MIA109
26 Dec 2015
ORL101
MIA108
25 Feb 2015
ORL90
MIA93
22 Nov 2014
ORL92
MIA99
04 Jan 2014
ORL94
MIA110
20 Nov 2013
ORL92
MIA120
25 Mar 2013
ORL94
MIA108
31 Dec 2012
ORL110
MIA112
13 Mar 2012
ORL104
MIA98
08 Feb 2012
ORL102
MIA89
21 Dec 2011
ORL104
MIA100
03 Feb 2011
ORL100
MIA104
24 Nov 2010
ORL104
MIA95
28 Feb 2010
ORL96
MIA80
25 Nov 2009
ORL98
MIA99
22 Feb 2009
ORL122
MIA99
02 Jan 2009
ORL86
MIA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Orlando Magic winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Orlando MagicUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMagic
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
100-91
100
91
+9
95avg 102
A14/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
L
113-123
113
123
-10
102avg 102
A15/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
108-106
108
106
+2
97avg 102
H24/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
L
108-121
108
121
-13
95avg 102
H26/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
101-93
101
93
+8
94avg 102
A28/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
117-139
117
139
-22
106avg 102
A02/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
117-106
117
106
+11
109avg 102
A04/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
L
119-122
119
122
-3
114avg 102
H05/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
123-134
123
134
-11
107avg 102
H08/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
L
124-131
124
131
-7
104avg 102
H10/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-21
24-23
27-24
24-23
27-35
43-30
19-29
24-29
28-26
19-20
33-33
28-27
25-27
27-24
22-31
34-39
36-25
14-24
29-25
22-19
29-31
37-45
30-32
21-31
31-26
33-22
27-25
26-33
27-31
29-27
32-34
31-30
26-36
34-34
32-32
31-32
28-29
28-35
41-33
27-34
229.6Avg total
113.0Scored
116.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (67)111.3114.3225.6-3.040%
Season at home (34)113.9115.6229.5-1.644%
Season away (33)108.7113.0221.7-4.336%
Last 10 (10)113.0116.6229.6-3.640%
Last 5 (5)120.0126.4246.4-6.420%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)112.3113.3225.6-1.046%
vs Similar ◀ (16)114.4116.4230.9-2.044%
vs Weaker (1)108.0106.0214.0+2.0100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#13
L
105-116
105
116
-11
93avg 99
A16/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
99-128
99
128
-29
83avg 99
A25/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
L
103-108
103
108
-5
95avg 99
A26/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
101-99
101
99
+2
89avg 99
A28/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
96-119
96
119
-23
83avg 99
H02/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
120-122
120
122
-2
114avg 99
H04/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
117-109
117
109
+8
118avg 99
H05/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
130-128
130
128
+2
125avg 99
H07/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
L
100-104
100
104
-4
96avg 99
H09/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
W
119-115
119
115
+4
116avg 99
H11/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-26
31-26
24-31
25-33
32-42
24-31
18-22
25-33
16-29
35-25
21-28
31-26
28-22
30-28
26-30
17-19
38-34
15-37
24-25
19-23
31-37
25-34
32-25
32-26
29-26
37-23
21-26
30-34
30-43
33-25
29-28
38-32
30-26
23-31
29-30
18-17
27-26
23-33
32-30
37-26
223.8Avg total
109.0Scored
114.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (68)108.5109.1217.6-0.753%
Season at home (35)109.5108.7218.2+0.863%
Season away (33)107.4109.6217.0-2.242%
Last 10 (10)109.0114.8223.8-5.840%
Last 5 (5)117.2115.6232.8+1.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)105.0104.6209.6+0.460%
vs Similar ◀ (22)108.7109.9218.6-1.155%
vs Weaker (3)105.7108.3214.0-2.733%
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -2.5-2.5Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +0.3+0.3
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -2.5-2.5Q2Q2: +0.4+0.4Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: -0.6-0.6Q3: -1.9-1.9Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: +0.3+0.3
Orlando MagicMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Orlando MagicLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
49-44
49
44
+5
A14/02
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#18
W
70-65
70
65
+5
A15/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
47-46
47
46
+1
H24/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
52-51
52
51
+1
H26/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#15
W
50-49
50
49
+1
A28/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
66-76
66
76
-10
A02/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
64-48
64
48
+16
A04/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
L
56-58
56
58
-2
H05/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
60-70
60
70
-10
H08/03
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
L
56-64
56
64
-8
H10/03
NBA
114.1Avg total
57.0Scored
57.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.757.9114.6-1.153%-
Last 30 at home (14)55.956.4112.3-0.657%-
Last 30 away (16)57.559.1116.6-1.650%-
Last 10 (10)57.057.1114.1-0.160%-
Last 5 (5)60.463.2123.6-2.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (13)55.160.5115.6-5.538%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)58.756.4115.1+2.262%-
vs Weaker (1)47.046.093.0+1.0100%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#13
W
56-52
56
52
+4
A16/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
56-73
56
73
-17
A25/02
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
L
51-54
51
54
-3
A26/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
58-50
58
50
+8
A28/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
53-71
53
71
-18
H02/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
56-71
56
71
-15
H04/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
66-49
66
49
+17
H05/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
63-68
63
68
-5
H07/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
L
53-57
53
57
-4
H09/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#6
L
50-59
50
59
-9
H11/03
NBA
116.6Avg total
56.2Scored
60.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.057.3112.4-2.333%-
Last 30 at home (16)55.458.4113.9-3.025%-
Last 30 away (14)54.656.1110.6-1.543%-
Last 10 (10)56.260.4116.6-4.230%-
Last 5 (5)57.660.8118.4-3.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)54.058.2112.2-4.220%-
vs Similar ◀ (22)55.057.3112.3-2.332%-
vs Weaker (3)57.056.0113.0+1.067%-
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Orlando Magictheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orlando Magic: 113.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.9 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.131.3
53.9%
54.5%62.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.610.3
33.7%
35.8%30.9
🏀 Free throws25.319.5
77.1%
78.1%19.5
They take 88.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 109.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀21%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.9 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws22.9 pts a game · 21% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.026.1
53.3%
54.5%52.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.711.3
35.6%
35.8%33.9
🏀 Free throws27.722.9
82.7%
78.1%22.9
They take 80.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Mar 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Orlando Magic
LLLWLWLWLW
Miami Heat
WLWWLLWLLL
#25
League position
#10
-3.5
Net rating
-6.0
110.5
Offensive rating
112.1
114.0
Defensive rating
118.1
52.7%
Effective FG%
53.3%
57.5%
Opp. effective FG%
57.3%
13.6%
Turnover %
14.2%
24.4%
Off. rebound %
24.0%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.34
33.7%
3-point %
35.6%
55.5%
Assist %
61.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence110.5 · 112.1Defence114.0 · 118.1Shooting52.7% · 53.3%3-point %33.7% · 35.6%Ball care13.6% · 14.2%Off. rebounds24.4% · 24.0%Free throws0.29 · 0.34Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Orlando Magic   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Orlando Magic wins
8
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
10/03/23HUtah Jazz124-131
08/03/23HMilwaukee Bucks123-134
05/03/23HPortland Trail Blazers119-122
04/03/23ACharlotte Hornets117-106
02/03/23AMilwaukee Bucks117-139
28/02/23ANew Orleans Pelicans101-93
26/02/23HIndiana Pacers108-121
24/02/23HDetroit Pistons108-106
15/02/23AToronto Raptors113-123
14/02/23AChicago Bulls100-91
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/03/23HCleveland Cavaliers119-115
09/03/23HCleveland Cavaliers100-104
07/03/23HAtlanta Hawks130-128
05/03/23HAtlanta Hawks117-109
04/03/23HNew York Knicks120-122
02/03/23HPhiladelphia 76ers96-119
28/02/23APhiladelphia 76ers101-99
26/02/23ACharlotte Hornets103-108
25/02/23AMilwaukee Bucks99-128
16/02/23ABrooklyn Nets105-116

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Orlando Magic
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL40%
HomeWLLLL44%
AwayWLWLW36%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games673433
Win %40%44%36%
Points / game111.3113.9108.7
Allowed / game114.3115.6113.0
Point differential-3.0-1.6-4.3
Avg total225.6229.5221.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%26%9%
Close games (≤5 pts) won41% (17)50% (8)33% (9)
Overtime %4%9%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW53%
HomeLWWLW63%
AwayWLLLW42%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games683533
Win %53%63%42%
Points / game108.5109.5107.4
Allowed / game109.1108.7109.6
Point differential-0.7+0.8-2.2
Avg total217.6218.2217.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%9%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won61% (38)68% (22)50% (16)
Overtime %6%3%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks66481873%115.9111.7+4.2
2 Boston Celtics67462169%117.6112.2+5.4
3 Denver Nuggets67462169%116.9112.9+4.0
4 Philadelphia 76ers66442267%115.1111.0+4.1
5 Cleveland Cavaliers69422761%112.0106.6+5.3
6 Memphis Grizzlies65392660%115.8112.0+3.9
7 Sacramento Kings65392660%121.1118.3+2.8
8 Brooklyn Nets67382957%113.7112.9+0.9
9 New York Knicks69393057%115.0112.4+2.6
10 Phoenix Suns66372956%113.3110.9+2.4
11 Miami Heat68363253%108.5109.1-0.7
12 Los Angeles Clippers69363352%112.5112.5+0.0
13 Dallas Mavericks67343351%114.0113.2+0.7
14 Golden State Warriors67343351%118.0117.6+0.4
15 Atlanta Hawks67343351%117.2117.0+0.2
16 Minnesota Timberwolves68343450%115.4115.7-0.3
17 Los Angeles Lakers67333449%116.7117.3-0.6
18 New Orleans Pelicans66323448%114.1113.4+0.6
19 Utah Jazz67323548%117.2117.3-0.1
20 Toronto Raptors68323647%112.4112.2+0.2
21 Oklahoma City Thunder66313547%118.2117.0+1.2
22 Washington Wizards67313646%113.2113.4-0.2
23 Portland Trail Blazers67313646%114.6115.7-1.0
24 Chicago Bulls66303645%113.1112.5+0.6
25 Indiana Pacers67303745%115.7118.0-2.2
26 Orlando Magic67274040%111.3114.3-3.0
27 Charlotte Hornets68224632%111.8117.5-5.7
28 San Antonio Spurs66174926%112.3122.3-10.0
29 Houston Rockets66155123%110.3118.5-8.2
30 Detroit Pistons67155222%111.3118.9-7.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Orlando Magic3424232718126
Miami Heat243123306114
← all games of the day
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