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Orlando Magic vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 21 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 23:00
Final 105-87
22-19 26-27 33-23 24-18
Position#14
Record22-20
FormLLWLL
Points / game111.9
Allowed / game111.4
vs
Position#18
Record24-18
FormWWWLL
Points / game111.4
Allowed / game110.8
USANBA· Amway Center (Orlando)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Orlando Magic v Miami Heat
05 Apr 2027
ORL v MIA
upcoming
12 Feb 2027
ORL v MIA
upcoming
05 Dec 2025
ORL106
MIA105
22 Oct 2025
ORL125
MIA121
26 Dec 2024
ORL88
MIA89
21 Dec 2024
ORL121
MIA114
21 Jan 2024
ORL105
MIA87
20 Dec 2023
ORL106
MIA115
11 Mar 2023
ORL126
MIA114
11 Feb 2023
ORL103
MIA107
10 Apr 2022
ORL125
MIA111
17 Dec 2021
ORL105
MIA115
14 Mar 2021
ORL97
MIA102
23 Dec 2020
ORL113
MIA107
01 Feb 2020
ORL89
MIA102
03 Jan 2020
ORL105
MIA85
23 Dec 2018
ORL91
MIA115
17 Oct 2018
ORL104
MIA101
30 Dec 2017
ORL111
MIA117
18 Oct 2017
ORL116
MIA109
03 Mar 2017
ORL110
MIA99
26 Oct 2016
ORL96
MIA108
08 Apr 2016
ORL112
MIA109
26 Dec 2015
ORL101
MIA108
25 Feb 2015
ORL90
MIA93
22 Nov 2014
ORL92
MIA99
04 Jan 2014
ORL94
MIA110
20 Nov 2013
ORL92
MIA120
25 Mar 2013
ORL94
MIA108
31 Dec 2012
ORL110
MIA112
13 Mar 2012
ORL104
MIA98
08 Feb 2012
ORL102
MIA89
21 Dec 2011
ORL104
MIA100
03 Feb 2011
ORL100
MIA104
24 Nov 2010
ORL104
MIA95
28 Feb 2010
ORL96
MIA80
25 Nov 2009
ORL98
MIA99
22 Feb 2009
ORL122
MIA99
02 Jan 2009
ORL86
MIA76
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Orlando Magic winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Orlando MagicUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormMagic
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#15
L
115-121
115
121
-6
99avg 103
A03/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
135-138 OT
135
138
-3
130avg 103
A04/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#3
W
122-120
122
120
+2
114avg 103
A06/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
117-110 OT
117
110
+7
108avg 103
H07/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
92-113
92
113
-21
74avg 103
H10/01
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
L
96-99
96
99
-3
87avg 103
A13/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
100-112
100
112
-12
93avg 103
A14/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
W
98-94
98
94
+4
92avg 103
A15/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
104-106
104
106
-2
88avg 103
A18/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
109-124
109
124
-15
103avg 103
H20/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-30
27-25
26-32
34-34
30-27
25-40
34-24
29-27
28-37
26-30
41-31
27-22
32-28
19-32
34-18
20-27
16-33
21-34
29-23
26-23
22-30
33-26
18-19
23-24
21-23
19-26
33-37
27-26
24-24
26-28
23-26
25-16
26-26
25-23
25-29
28-28
34-32
26-36
16-21
33-35
222.5Avg total
108.8Scored
113.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)111.9111.4223.3+0.552%
Season at home (19)115.3109.1224.4+6.368%
Season away (23)109.0113.3222.3-4.339%
Last 10 (10)108.8113.7222.5-4.930%
Last 5 (5)101.4107.0208.4-5.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)105.2112.5217.8-7.225%
vs Similar ◀ (17)111.0113.8224.8-2.841%
vs Weaker (9)121.9113.8235.7+8.178%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
104-121
104
121
-17
92avg 102
A02/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
110-96
110
96
+14
100avg 102
A04/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
97-113
97
113
-16
92avg 102
A06/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
120-113
120
113
+7
118avg 102
H09/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
120-128
120
128
-8
109avg 102
H11/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
99-96
99
96
+3
91avg 102
H13/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
104-87
104
87
+17
103avg 102
H14/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
96-95 OT
96
95
+1
90avg 102
A16/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
97-121
97
121
-24
84avg 102
A18/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
108-109
108
109
-1
102avg 102
H20/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-23
23-36
27-36
19-26
25-18
28-27
19-22
38-29
29-33
26-29
20-32
22-19
34-27
25-32
32-23
29-31
35-29
34-36
27-34
24-29
30-22
26-33
19-18
24-23
26-16
26-15
25-30
27-26
16-22
15-23
37-24
20-19
18-41
25-37
30-16
24-27
24-32
32-25
27-24
25-28
213.4Avg total
105.5Scored
107.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (42)111.4110.8222.2+0.657%
Season at home (20)115.1114.0229.1+1.160%
Season away (22)108.1107.9216.0+0.255%
Last 10 (10)105.5107.9213.4-2.450%
Last 5 (5)100.8101.6202.4-0.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)114.0120.0234.0-6.00%
vs Similar ◀ (22)112.3111.1223.5+1.255%
vs Weaker (6)108.8107.7216.5+1.267%
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -5.3-5.3Q2: -3.3-3.3Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -0.5-0.5
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: -2.9-2.9Q1: +0.9+0.9Q2Q2: -5.3-5.3Q2: -3.3-3.3Q3Q3: +1.9+1.9Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: +1.0+1.0Q4: -0.5-0.5
Orlando MagicMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Orlando MagicLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Golden State Warriors
#15
D
55-55
55
55
+0
A03/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
L
55-67
55
67
-12
A04/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#3
L
54-67
54
67
-13
A06/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
51-60
51
60
-9
H07/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
L
37-67
37
67
-30
H10/01
NBA
Miami Heat
#18
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A13/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
40-49
40
49
-9
A14/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
50-52
50
52
-2
A15/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
51-49
51
49
+2
A18/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
60-68
60
68
-8
H20/01
NBA
109.8Avg total
50.8Scored
59.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.258.4113.6-3.230%-
Last 30 at home (14)54.657.5112.1-2.936%-
Last 30 away (16)55.859.2114.9-3.425%-
Last 10 (10)50.859.0109.8-8.210%-
Last 5 (5)51.254.8106.0-3.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)47.257.5104.8-10.20%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)55.459.2114.5-3.818%-
vs Weaker (9)58.457.3115.8+1.167%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
58-59
58
59
-1
A02/01
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#16
W
53-45
53
45
+8
A04/01
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
55-62
55
62
-7
A06/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
D
59-59
59
59
+0
H09/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
69-65
69
65
+4
H11/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
56-55
56
55
+1
H13/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
52-31
52
31
+21
H14/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
L
31-45
31
45
-14
A16/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
43-78
43
78
-35
A18/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
56-57
56
57
-1
H20/01
NBA
108.8Avg total
53.2Scored
55.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.555.5113.0+2.053%-
Last 30 at home (15)59.756.1115.9+3.660%-
Last 30 away (15)55.354.8110.1+0.547%-
Last 10 (10)53.255.6108.8-2.440%-
Last 5 (5)47.653.2100.8-5.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)67.559.5127.0+8.0100%-
vs Similar ◀ (22)57.455.5112.9+1.950%-
vs Weaker (6)54.554.0108.5+0.550%-
This opponent (Orlando Magic) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Orlando Magictheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Orlando Magic: 108.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.8 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.9 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.225.9
50.6%
54.4%51.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.113.3
36.8%
36.3%39.9
🏀 Free throws23.817.1
71.8%
78.2%17.1
They take 87.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 105.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.1 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.726.9
51.0%
54.4%53.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.611.2
34.4%
36.3%33.6
🏀 Free throws22.318.1
81.2%
78.2%18.1
They take 85.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 21 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Orlando Magic
LLWLLLWWLL
Miami Heat
LLWWWLWLWL
#14
League position
#18
-4.9
Net rating
-2.4
109.1
Offensive rating
107.4
114.0
Defensive rating
109.8
52.5%
Effective FG%
51.2%
54.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.3%
13.7%
Turnover %
13.0%
27.4%
Off. rebound %
21.9%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.26
36.8%
3-point %
34.4%
60.5%
Assist %
66.1%
30%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence109.1 · 107.4Defence114.0 · 109.8Shooting52.5% · 51.2%3-point %36.8% · 34.4%Ball care13.7% · 13.0%Off. rebounds27.4% · 21.9%Free throws0.27 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)30% · 50%
■ Orlando Magic   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
2
Orlando Magic wins
8
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/24HPhiladelphia 76ers109-124
18/01/24AAtlanta Hawks104-106
15/01/24ANew York Knicks98-94
14/01/24AOklahoma City Thunder100-112
13/01/24AMiami Heat96-99
10/01/24HMinnesota Timberwolves92-113
07/01/24HAtlanta Hawks117-110 OT
06/01/24ADenver Nuggets122-120
04/01/24ASacramento Kings135-138 OT
03/01/24AGolden State Warriors115-121
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/01/24HAtlanta Hawks108-109
18/01/24AToronto Raptors97-121
16/01/24ABrooklyn Nets96-95 OT
14/01/24HCharlotte Hornets104-87
13/01/24HOrlando Magic99-96
11/01/24HOklahoma City Thunder120-128
09/01/24HHouston Rockets120-113
06/01/24APhoenix Suns97-113
04/01/24ALos Angeles Lakers110-96
02/01/24ALos Angeles Clippers104-121

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Orlando Magic
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 3 Wins / 7 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWLL52%
HomeLWWLL68%
AwayWLLWL39%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games421923
Win %52%68%39%
Points / game111.9115.3109.0
Allowed / game111.4109.1113.3
Point differential+0.5+6.3-4.3
Avg total223.3224.4222.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%47%4%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (14)67% (3)45% (11)
Overtime %5%5%4%
Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL57%
HomeWLWWL60%
AwayLWLWL55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games422022
Win %57%60%55%
Points / game111.4115.1108.1
Allowed / game110.8114.0107.9
Point differential+0.6+1.1+0.2
Avg total222.2229.1216.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%15%18%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)57% (7)60% (5)
Overtime %2%0%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics4132978%120.6110.4+10.2
2 Minnesota Timberwolves42301271%113.1107.3+5.8
3 Milwaukee Bucks40281270%124.2120.4+3.8
4 Oklahoma City Thunder42291369%121.7113.7+8.1
5 Philadelphia 76ers41281368%119.5111.2+8.2
6 Denver Nuggets43291467%116.0111.1+4.9
7 Los Angeles Clippers41271466%117.8112.0+5.8
8 Cleveland Cavaliers40251562%113.7110.0+3.8
9 New York Knicks42261662%115.0109.7+5.3
10 New Orleans Pelicans41241759%117.1111.7+5.4
11 Phoenix Suns40231757%116.4114.5+1.9
12 Sacramento Kings40231757%118.3117.8+0.5
13 Dallas Mavericks42241857%118.5117.4+1.1
14 Miami Heat42241857%111.4110.8+0.6
15 Indiana Pacers40221855%125.4123.7+1.7
16 Orlando Magic42222052%111.9111.4+0.5
17 Utah Jazz44222250%117.3118.7-1.5
18 Houston Rockets41202149%112.6112.0+0.6
19 Chicago Bulls44212348%110.6112.0-1.4
20 Los Angeles Lakers41192246%114.1116.7-2.6
21 Golden State Warriors40182245%117.2118.2-1.0
22 Atlanta Hawks42182443%120.0122.5-2.4
23 Brooklyn Nets42172540%114.2115.8-1.6
24 Toronto Raptors43162737%114.7116.6-1.9
25 Memphis Grizzlies42152736%107.8113.6-5.8
26 Portland Trail Blazers41122929%107.5116.7-9.2
27 Charlotte Hornets4093122%108.3119.8-11.5
28 San Antonio Spurs4283419%112.5121.5-8.9
29 Washington Wizards4173417%115.7125.2-9.5
30 Detroit Pistons4243810%112.4123.0-10.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Orlando Magic22263324105
Miami Heat1927231887
← all games of the day
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