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Milwaukee Bucks vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 23 Mar 2019
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 116-87
33-32 30-19 31-18 22-18
Position#1
Record53-19
FormWWLWL
Points / game117.4
Allowed / game108.5
vs
Position#17
Record35-36
FormWLWWW
Points / game106.0
Allowed / game105.7
USANBA· Fiserv Forum
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Milwaukee Bucks v Miami Heat
12 Mar 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
28 Jan 2027
MIL v MIA
upcoming
24 Feb 2026
MIL128
MIA117
23 Feb 2025
MIL120
MIA113
23 Jan 2025
MIL125
MIA96
13 Feb 2024
MIL97
MIA123
30 Oct 2023
MIL122
MIA114
26 Apr 2023
MIL126
MIA128
19 Apr 2023
MIL138
MIA122
16 Apr 2023
MIL117
MIA130
24 Feb 2023
MIL128
MIA99
04 Feb 2023
MIL123
MIA115
02 Mar 2022
MIL120
MIA119
04 Dec 2021
MIL124
MIA102
24 May 2021
MIL132
MIA98
22 May 2021
MIL109
MIA107
15 May 2021
MIL122
MIA108
08 Sep 2020
MIL94
MIA103
02 Sep 2020
MIL114
MIA116
31 Aug 2020
MIL104
MIA115
06 Aug 2020
MIL130
MIA116
26 Oct 2019
MIL126
MIA131
22 Mar 2019
MIL116
MIA87
15 Jan 2019
MIL124
MIA86
17 Jan 2018
MIL101
MIA106
08 Feb 2017
MIL88
MIA106
13 Jan 2017
MIL116
MIA108
09 Mar 2016
MIL114
MIA108
29 Jan 2016
MIL103
MIA107
24 Mar 2015
MIL89
MIA88
05 Dec 2014
MIL109
MIA85
29 Mar 2014
MIL67
MIA88
28 Apr 2013
MIL77
MIA88
25 Apr 2013
MIL91
MIA104
15 Mar 2013
MIL94
MIA107
29 Dec 2012
MIL104
MIA85
13 Feb 2012
MIL96
MIA114
01 Feb 2012
MIL105
MIA97
07 Jan 2011
MIL95
MIA101
06 Dec 2010
MIL78
MIA88
26 Mar 2010
MIL74
MIA87
30 Jan 2010
MIL95
MIA84
14 Jan 2009
MIL99
MIA102
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#9
L
111-115
111
115
-4
96avg 110
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
L
105-114
105
114
-9
90avg 110
A05/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
117-98
117
98
+19
113avg 110
H08/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
W
131-114
131
114
+17
130avg 110
H10/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#11
L
114-121
114
121
-7
105avg 110
A11/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
130-113
130
113
+17
125avg 110
A13/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
113-98
113
98
+15
112avg 110
A16/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
L
125-130
125
130
-5
114avg 110
H17/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
W
115-101
115
101
+14
no box
H20/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
L
102-107
102
107
-5
no box
A20/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-23
20-30
32-20
33-42
31-20
23-32
28-24
23-38
32-24
22-26
30-22
33-26
24-32
31-27
39-28
37-27
32-25
28-29
23-33
31-34
23-23
33-25
45-41
29-24
19-37
23-25
37-18
34-18
28-31
25-31
29-27
43-41
35-24
26-34
38-26
16-17
24-30
23-28
34-23
21-26
227.4Avg total
116.3Scored
111.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (72)117.4108.5225.9+9.074%
Season at home (34)119.9107.3227.2+12.682%
Season away (38)115.2109.5224.7+5.766%
Last 10 (10)116.3111.1227.4+5.250%
Last 5 (5)117.0109.8226.8+7.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)105.092.0197.0+13.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)117.6109.3226.8+8.376%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#15
W
117-88
117
88
+29
122avg 97
H03/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
W
114-113
114
113
+1
110avg 97
H05/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
W
91-84
91
84
+7
no box
A07/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
126-110
126
110
+16
129avg 97
H09/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
104-125
104
125
-21
90avg 97
H10/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
W
108-74
108
74
+34
104avg 97
H13/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
98-113
98
113
-15
81avg 97
H16/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
W
93-75
93
75
+18
89avg 97
H17/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
W
116-107
116
107
+9
no box
A19/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#11
W
110-105
110
105
+5
no box
A21/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-23
26-21
30-20
33-24
32-31
29-30
24-24
29-28
29-18
14-25
18-15
30-26
28-29
29-28
37-26
32-27
27-32
27-36
25-23
25-34
30-18
24-31
33-8
21-17
37-19
25-23
18-37
18-34
19-20
20-19
22-21
32-15
27-25
31-30
28-20
30-32
24-22
38-25
28-31
20-27
207.1Avg total
107.7Scored
99.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (71)106.0105.7211.7+0.249%
Season at home (37)105.9106.0211.9-0.146%
Season away (34)106.0105.4211.4+0.653%
Last 10 (10)107.799.4207.1+8.380%
Last 5 (5)105.094.8199.8+10.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)107.0119.3226.3-12.314%
vs Similar (16)101.899.6201.4+2.150%
vs Weaker (7)110.4106.6217.0+3.971%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +4.4+4.4Q2Q2: -3.3-3.3Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +7.3+7.3Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +0.6+0.6
-9-5+0+5+9Q1Q1: +0.5+0.5Q1: +4.4+4.4Q2Q2: -3.3-3.3Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +7.3+7.3Q3: +3.8+3.8Q4Q4: +0.7+0.7Q4: +0.6+0.6
Milwaukee BucksMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#9
L
46-53
46
53
-7
A03/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
54-52
54
52
+2
A05/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
54-50
54
50
+4
H08/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
L
55-59
55
59
-4
H10/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#11
W
60-54
60
54
+6
A11/03
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
56-48
56
48
+8
A13/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
L
42-62
42
62
-20
A16/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
L
53-62
53
62
-9
H17/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
W
61-58
61
58
+3
H20/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
L
47-58
47
58
-11
A20/03
NBA
108.4Avg total
52.8Scored
55.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.353.9111.2+3.463%-
Last 30 at home (11)59.757.1116.8+2.645%-
Last 30 away (19)55.952.1108.0+3.874%-
Last 10 (10)52.855.6108.4-2.850%-
Last 5 (5)51.857.6109.4-5.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)56.047.0103.0+9.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)57.354.2111.5+3.262%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#15
W
54-44
54
44
+10
H03/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
D
61-61
61
61
+0
H05/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
D
43-43
43
43
+0
A07/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H09/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
L
54-68
54
68
-14
H10/03
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
W
54-49
54
49
+5
H13/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
62-42
62
42
+20
H16/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#18
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H17/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A19/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#11
W
62-47
62
47
+15
A21/03
NBA
104.9Avg total
54.4Scored
50.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.354.1108.4+0.340%-
Last 30 at home (14)55.253.9109.1+1.443%-
Last 30 away (16)53.654.2107.8-0.738%-
Last 10 (10)54.450.5104.9+3.950%-
Last 5 (5)55.046.4101.4+8.680%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)59.056.7115.7+2.357%-
vs Similar (16)52.152.3104.4-0.244%-
vs Weaker (7)54.955.4110.3-0.614%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 116.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.4 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.5 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.027.1
52.1%
51.7%54.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.413.8
35.0%
35.4%41.4
🏀 Free throws26.520.5
77.4%
76.6%20.5
They take 91.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 107.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.8 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.529.8
50.1%
51.7%59.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.210.9
38.7%
35.4%32.7
🏀 Free throws21.314.8
69.5%
76.6%14.8
They take 87.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Mar 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Milwaukee Bucks
LWLWWLWWLL
Miami Heat
WWWLWLWWWW
#1
League position
#17
+4.9
Net rating
+7.8
110.2
Offensive rating
108.9
105.3
Defensive rating
101.1
52.3%
Effective FG%
52.6%
50.1%
Opp. effective FG%
49.6%
12.2%
Turnover %
12.6%
23.1%
Off. rebound %
25.9%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.24
35.0%
3-point %
38.7%
57.9%
Assist %
63.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence110.2 · 108.9Defence105.3 · 101.1Shooting52.3% · 52.6%3-point %35.0% · 38.7%Ball care12.2% · 12.6%Off. rebounds23.1% · 25.9%Free throws0.29 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Milwaukee Bucks   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Milwaukee Bucks wins
7
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/03/19ACleveland Cavaliers102-107
20/03/19HLos Angeles Lakers115-101
17/03/19HPhiladelphia 76ers125-130
16/03/19AMiami Heat113-98
13/03/19ANew Orleans Pelicans130-113
11/03/19ASan Antonio Spurs114-121
10/03/19HCharlotte Hornets131-114
08/03/19HIndiana Pacers117-98
05/03/19APhoenix Suns105-114
03/03/19AUtah Jazz111-115
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/03/19ASan Antonio Spurs110-105
19/03/19AOklahoma City Thunder116-107
17/03/19HCharlotte Hornets93-75
16/03/19HMilwaukee Bucks98-113
13/03/19HDetroit Pistons108-74
10/03/19HToronto Raptors104-125
09/03/19HCleveland Cavaliers126-110
07/03/19ACharlotte Hornets91-84
05/03/19HAtlanta Hawks114-113
03/03/19HBrooklyn Nets117-88

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL74%
HomeWWWLW82%
AwayLLWWL66%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games723438
Win %74%82%66%
Points / game117.4119.9115.2
Allowed / game108.5107.3109.5
Point differential+9.0+12.6+5.7
Avg total225.9227.2224.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+56%65%47%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (15)40% (5)40% (10)
Overtime %4%0%8%
Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW49%
HomeWLWLW46%
AwayLLWWW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games713734
Win %49%46%53%
Points / game106.0105.9106.0
Allowed / game105.7106.0105.4
Point differential+0.2-0.1+0.6
Avg total211.7211.9211.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%19%24%
Close games (≤5 pts) won45% (22)55% (11)36% (11)
Overtime %1%0%3%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks72531974%117.4108.5+9.0
2 Toronto Raptors73512270%114.2108.7+5.4
3 Golden State Warriors71492269%117.6111.4+6.2
4 Denver Nuggets71492269%112.0106.8+5.2
5 Philadelphia 76ers72472565%115.2111.8+3.4
6 Houston Rockets73462763%113.1110.0+3.1
7 Portland Trail Blazers71442762%114.1110.4+3.7
8 Indiana Pacers73442960%107.7104.2+3.5
9 Boston Celtics72432960%112.7107.7+5.0
10 Oklahoma City Thunder73433059%114.5111.1+3.4
11 Los Angeles Clippers73433059%114.6113.6+1.0
12 Utah Jazz72423058%110.7106.5+4.1
13 San Antonio Spurs73423158%111.7110.3+1.4
14 Detroit Pistons71373452%107.6107.7-0.1
15 Brooklyn Nets73373651%111.6112.0-0.3
16 Miami Heat71353649%106.0105.7+0.2
17 Sacramento Kings71353649%114.1114.8-0.7
18 Orlando Magic73353848%106.1106.3-0.1
19 Charlotte Hornets71323945%110.4111.5-1.1
20 Minnesota Timberwolves72324044%112.4113.6-1.1
21 Los Angeles Lakers71314044%111.8114.0-2.2
22 New Orleans Pelicans74314342%115.7116.1-0.4
23 Washington Wizards73304341%114.3117.0-2.6
24 Memphis Grizzlies72294340%102.7105.1-2.4
25 Dallas Mavericks72284439%108.2110.2-2.0
26 Atlanta Hawks73254834%112.4118.5-6.1
27 Chicago Bulls73215229%105.6113.2-7.6
28 Cleveland Cavaliers73195426%104.4113.3-8.9
29 Phoenix Suns73175623%107.0116.1-9.1
30 New York Knicks73145919%105.1114.2-9.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Milwaukee Bucks33303122116
Miami Heat3219181887
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