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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 03 Apr 2019
Tip-off: 23:30
Final 102-112
31-29 18-24 32-30 21-29
Position#17
Record41-42
FormWLWWL
Points / game106.1
Allowed / game106.2
vs
Position#11
Record47-35
FormLWWLW
Points / game111.9
Allowed / game108.0
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Jul 2025
MIA100
BOS96
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
09 Jul 2022
MIA88
BOS78
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
15 Oct 2021
MIA121
BOS100
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
98-113
98
113
-15
H16/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
93-75
93
75
+18
H17/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
W
116-107
116
107
+9
A19/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
W
110-105
110
105
+5
A21/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
87-116
87
116
-29
A23/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#22
W
113-108
113
108
+5
A23/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
L
99-104
99
104
-5
H26/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
W
105-99
105
99
+6
H28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
W
100-92
100
92
+8
A30/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
L
105-110
105
110
-5
A01/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
37-19
25-23
18-37
18-34
19-20
20-19
22-21
32-15
27-25
31-30
28-20
30-32
24-22
38-25
28-31
20-27
32-33
19-30
18-31
18-22
25-27
27-26
26-26
35-29
32-18
19-24
19-34
29-28
26-29
23-30
26-23
30-17
29-33
26-28
24-18
21-13
17-36
30-25
30-27
28-22
205.5Avg total
102.6Scored
102.9Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (83)106.1106.2212.3-0.049%
Season at home (42)106.5106.1212.6+0.450%
Season away (41)105.8106.2212.0-0.549%
Last 10 (10)102.6102.9205.5-0.360%
Last 5 (5)104.4102.6207.0+1.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)108.5120.0228.5-11.517%
vs Similar ◀ (18)103.2100.3203.6+2.956%
vs Weaker (6)109.3106.8216.2+2.567%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#19
W
126-120
126
120
+6
H14/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
W
129-120
129
120
+9
H16/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#4
L
105-114
105
114
-9
H18/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
L
115-118
115
118
-3
A20/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
L
117-124
117
124
-7
A23/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
L
96-115
96
115
-19
H24/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#28
W
116-106
116
106
+10
A26/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
114-112
114
112
+2
H29/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#14
L
96-110
96
110
-14
A30/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
110-105
110
105
+5
H01/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
25-38
31-24
37-29
33-29
43-36
31-26
31-30
24-28
22-24
30-31
28-25
25-34
39-30
30-28
21-27
25-33
35-29
29-34
34-26
19-35
24-31
23-23
25-30
24-31
32-27
25-24
31-30
28-25
35-25
28-35
26-31
25-21
21-17
27-32
22-33
26-28
36-17
25-30
27-30
22-28
226.8Avg total
112.4Scored
114.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (82)111.9108.0219.9+3.857%
Season at home (42)113.8107.1220.9+6.769%
Season away (40)109.8109.0218.8+0.845%
Last 10 (10)112.4114.4226.8-2.050%
Last 5 (5)106.4109.6216.0-3.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)97.098.0195.0-1.00%
vs Similar ◀ (14)110.2114.6224.9-4.436%
vs Weaker (15)115.9110.0225.9+5.973%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +0.6+0.6Q1: +3.8+3.8Q2Q2: -0.2-0.2Q2: -0.8-0.8Q3Q3: -2.9-2.9Q3: -0.9-0.9Q4Q4: +2.2+2.2Q4: -4.1-4.1
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
62-42
62
42
+20
H16/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
D
39-39
39
39
+0
H17/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#9
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A19/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
W
62-47
62
47
+15
A21/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
51-63
51
63
-12
A23/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#22
L
52-53
52
53
-1
A23/03
NBA
Orlando Magic
#16
W
51-42
51
42
+9
H26/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
49-59
49
59
-10
H28/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#30
L
55-61
55
61
-6
A30/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#11
L
47-61
47
61
-14
A01/04
NBA
104.8Avg total
52.6Scored
52.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.854.2109.0+0.643%-
Last 30 at home (15)54.653.4108.0+1.247%-
Last 30 away (15)55.054.9109.9+0.140%-
Last 10 (10)52.652.2104.8+0.440%-
Last 5 (5)50.855.2106.0-4.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)61.556.8118.3+4.767%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)52.252.5104.7-0.344%-
vs Weaker (6)56.056.5112.5-0.517%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#19
L
56-62
56
62
-6
H14/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#26
W
74-62
74
62
+12
H16/03
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#4
L
52-55
52
55
-3
H18/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#7
W
69-58
69
58
+11
A20/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
64-63
64
63
+1
A23/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#12
L
47-54
47
54
-7
H24/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#28
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A26/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
W
63-60
63
60
+3
H29/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#14
L
48-49
48
49
-1
A30/03
NBA
Miami Heat
#17
W
61-47
61
47
+14
H01/04
NBA
115.2Avg total
59.1Scored
56.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.954.6111.5+2.460%-
Last 30 at home (16)58.255.2113.4+3.162%-
Last 30 away (14)55.453.9109.3+1.657%-
Last 10 (10)59.156.1115.2+3.060%-
Last 5 (5)55.252.2107.4+3.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)47.053.0100.0-6.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)56.855.4112.2+1.450%-
vs Weaker (15)57.753.9111.6+3.973%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 102.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.0 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.5 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.128.0
49.9%
51.7%56.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.710.5
32.1%
35.4%31.5
🏀 Free throws20.314.5
71.4%
76.6%14.5
They take 88.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 112.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.229.7
50.2%
51.7%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.512.1
37.2%
35.4%36.3
🏀 Free throws21.216.4
77.4%
76.6%16.4
They take 91.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 03 Apr 2019 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LWWLWLWWWL
Boston Celtics
WLWWLLLLWW
#17
League position
#11
-0.7
Net rating
-2.0
102.7
Offensive rating
108.9
103.4
Defensive rating
110.9
49.3%
Effective FG%
52.2%
49.0%
Opp. effective FG%
52.7%
11.7%
Turnover %
11.4%
21.3%
Off. rebound %
21.7%
0.23
Free-throw rate
0.23
32.1%
3-point %
37.2%
64.9%
Assist %
61.2%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence102.7 · 108.9Defence103.4 · 110.9Shooting49.3% · 52.2%3-point %32.1% · 37.2%Ball care11.7% · 11.4%Off. rebounds21.3% · 21.7%Free throws0.23 · 0.23Form (last 10/10)60% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Miami Heat wins
7
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/04/19ABoston Celtics105-110
30/03/19ANew York Knicks100-92
28/03/19HDallas Mavericks105-99
26/03/19HOrlando Magic99-104
23/03/19AWashington Wizards113-108
23/03/19AMilwaukee Bucks87-116
21/03/19ASan Antonio Spurs110-105
19/03/19AOklahoma City Thunder116-107
17/03/19HCharlotte Hornets93-75
16/03/19HMilwaukee Bucks98-113
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/04/19HMiami Heat110-105
30/03/19ABrooklyn Nets96-110
29/03/19HIndiana Pacers114-112
26/03/19ACleveland Cavaliers116-106
24/03/19HSan Antonio Spurs96-115
23/03/19ACharlotte Hornets117-124
20/03/19APhiladelphia 76ers115-118
18/03/19HDenver Nuggets105-114
16/03/19HAtlanta Hawks129-120
14/03/19HSacramento Kings126-120

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL49%
HomeWLWLW50%
AwayWLWWL49%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games834241
Win %49%50%49%
Points / game106.1106.5105.8
Allowed / game106.2106.1106.2
Point differential-0.0+0.4-0.5
Avg total212.3212.6212.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%19%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (27)54% (13)36% (14)
Overtime %1%0%2%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW57%
HomeWLLWW69%
AwayLLLWL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games824240
Win %57%69%45%
Points / game111.9113.8109.8
Allowed / game108.0107.1109.0
Point differential+3.8+6.7+0.8
Avg total219.9220.9218.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%33%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won53% (19)60% (10)44% (9)
Overtime %5%5%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks82612174%118.3108.5+9.7
2 Toronto Raptors82582471%114.5108.3+6.2
3 Denver Nuggets81542767%110.7106.8+3.9
4 Golden State Warriors82542866%117.3111.5+5.8
5 Houston Rockets82532965%113.2109.1+4.1
6 Philadelphia 76ers80512964%115.2112.3+2.9
7 Portland Trail Blazers82523063%114.5110.3+4.1
8 Utah Jazz80503062%111.5105.8+5.7
9 Los Angeles Clippers81503162%115.0112.8+2.2
10 Indiana Pacers83493459%107.7104.1+3.7
11 Oklahoma City Thunder82483459%113.8110.4+3.4
12 San Antonio Spurs83483558%111.6109.9+1.7
13 Boston Celtics82473557%111.9108.0+3.8
14 Brooklyn Nets82414150%111.7112.4-0.7
15 Miami Heat83414249%106.1106.2-0.0
16 Detroit Pistons83414249%107.1107.5-0.4
17 Orlando Magic83404348%106.0106.1-0.0
18 Charlotte Hornets82394348%110.8112.0-1.3
19 Sacramento Kings83394447%113.5115.2-1.8
20 Los Angeles Lakers84384645%112.1113.7-1.6
21 Minnesota Timberwolves82354743%112.5114.6-2.1
22 Washington Wizards83354842%114.1116.4-2.3
23 Memphis Grizzlies82334940%103.2106.1-2.9
24 Dallas Mavericks80324840%108.9110.2-1.3
25 New Orleans Pelicans83325139%115.2117.0-1.8
26 Atlanta Hawks83305336%112.9118.7-5.7
27 Chicago Bulls84246029%105.1112.9-7.9
28 Cleveland Cavaliers82216126%104.7113.6-8.9
29 Phoenix Suns82196323%106.8116.0-9.2
30 New York Knicks83186522%105.1113.8-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat31183221102
Boston Celtics29243029112
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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