PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Varese vs Brescia Prediction & Stats

Date: Wed 11 Mar 2020
Tip-off: 19:45
Postponed
Position#10
Record9-10
FormLWLWL
Points / game82.6
Allowed / game80.1
vs
Position#3
Record14-7
FormWWLLW
Points / game81.3
Allowed / game74.0
ItalyLega ARound 25
Domestic2019-20
Meetings · Varese v Brescia
14 Feb 2026
VAR98
BRE96
25 Jan 2025
VAR77
BRE118
30 Mar 2024
VAR92
BRE95
28 Jan 2023
VAR80
BRE72
26 Sep 2021
VAR75
BRE72
27 Sep 2020
VAR94
BRE89
13 Sep 2020
VAR102
BRE100
11 Mar 2020
VAR v BRE
upcoming
07 Oct 2018
VAR81
BRE80
16 May 2018
VAR64
BRE69
11 Feb 2018
VAR100
BRE72
19 Nov 2016
VAR68
BRE74
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Brescia win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Roma
#15
W
99-69
99
69
+30
H01/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
67-74
67
74
-7
A08/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#17
W
103-87
103
87
+16
H15/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
72-93
72
93
-21
A21/12
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
W
91-60
91
60
+31
H26/12
Lega A
Trento
#8
L
81-86
81
86
-5
H29/12
Lega A
Treviso
#13
W
84-79
84
79
+5
A05/01
Lega A
Sassari
#2
L
87-93
87
93
-6
A12/01
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
91-85
91
85
+6
H19/01
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#9
L
76-79
76
79
-3
A26/01
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-19
24-20
21-15
20-15
14-14
21-23
12-17
20-20
25-24
31-30
26-20
21-13
24-18
17-29
16-24
15-22
26-14
18-19
24-15
23-12
16-20
20-26
17-19
28-21
23-17
14-27
22-11
25-24
25-28
18-22
27-25
17-18
20-20
22-18
33-21
16-26
20-24
28-20
13-20
15-15
165.6Avg total
85.1Scored
80.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)82.680.1162.7+2.547%
Season at home (9)88.376.7165.0+11.778%
Season away (10)77.583.2160.7-5.720%
Last 10 (10)85.180.5165.6+4.650%
Last 5 (5)83.884.4168.2-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)73.286.2159.5-13.00%
vs Similar (11)81.086.7167.7-5.727%
vs Weaker (15)83.373.1156.5+10.267%
This opponent (Brescia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BresciaItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pistoia
#16
W
86-74
86
74
+12
H08/12
Lega A
Virtus Roma
#15
W
83-53
83
53
+30
A22/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
W
91-76
91
76
+15
H26/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
W
93-82
93
82
+11
A29/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
W
70-64
70
64
+6
H04/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#12
W
87-81
87
81
+6
A11/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#4
W
78-72
78
72
+6
H19/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
L
82-86
82
86
-4
H26/01
Lega A
Trento
#8
L
56-63
56
63
-7
A02/02
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
76-74
76
74
+2
H09/02
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-19
20-20
14-14
24-21
25-15
22-13
16-12
20-13
20-29
19-22
28-15
24-10
23-28
27-18
31-19
12-17
10-14
15-18
16-15
29-17
24-22
24-15
18-21
21-23
9-15
20-19
27-17
22-21
15-22
26-18
25-22
16-24
15-19
18-14
12-15
11-15
16-17
18-20
14-25
28-12
152.7Avg total
80.2Scored
72.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)81.374.0155.3+7.367%
Season at home (11)85.274.9160.1+10.382%
Season away (10)77.073.0150.0+4.050%
Last 10 (10)80.272.5152.7+7.780%
Last 5 (5)75.875.2151.0+0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)83.889.0172.8-5.225%
vs Similar (10)80.279.5159.7+0.750%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)83.372.8156.1+10.681%
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: -1.5-1.5Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: +3.2+3.2Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: +2.6+2.6Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: +3.4+3.4
VareseBrescia
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Roma
#15
W
58-39
58
39
+19
H01/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A08/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#17
W
56-54
56
54
+2
H15/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A21/12
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
W
44-33
44
33
+11
H26/12
Lega A
Trento
#8
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H29/12
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A05/01
Lega A
Sassari
#2
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A12/01
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H19/01
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#9
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A26/01
Lega A
87.2Avg total
44.0Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.639.379.9+1.357%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.936.678.5+5.380%-
Last 30 away (15)39.341.981.3-2.633%-
Last 10 (10)44.043.287.2+0.850%-
Last 5 (5)41.244.485.6-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)34.043.277.2-9.20%-
vs Similar (11)40.041.381.3-1.355%-
vs Weaker (15)42.836.779.5+6.173%-
This opponent (Brescia) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
BresciaLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pistoia
#16
W
48-39
48
39
+9
H08/12
Lega A
Virtus Roma
#15
W
47-28
47
28
+19
A22/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
39-51
39
51
-12
H26/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
W
50-46
50
46
+4
A29/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
L
25-32
25
32
-7
H04/01
Lega A
Reggiana
#12
W
48-37
48
37
+11
A11/01
Lega A
Olimpia Milano
#4
L
29-34
29
34
-5
H19/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
W
41-40
41
40
+1
H26/01
Lega A
Trento
#8
D
33-33
33
33
+0
A02/02
Lega A
Trieste
#14
L
34-37
34
37
-3
H09/02
Lega A
77.1Avg total
39.4Scored
37.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.939.179.0+0.853%-
Last 30 at home (16)40.238.979.2+1.362%-
Last 30 away (14)39.639.378.9+0.343%-
Last 10 (10)39.437.777.1+1.750%-
Last 5 (5)37.036.273.2+0.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)38.842.281.0-3.550%-
vs Similar (10)38.938.677.5+0.350%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)40.938.679.5+2.256%-
This opponent (Varese) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 84.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.116.0
56.9%
52.0%32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.512.4
38.2%
35.1%37.2
🏀 Free throws18.314.9
81.4%
73.6%14.9
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 54% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Bresciatheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brescia: 79.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers27.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers38.419.4
50.5%
52.0%38.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers22.09.2
41.8%
35.1%27.6
🏀 Free throws16.713.0
77.8%
73.6%13.0
They take 60.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 22.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 11 Mar 2020 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWLWLWLWLW
Brescia
WLLWWWWWWW
#10
League position
#3
+6.7
Net rating
+11.9
122.5
Offensive rating
117.1
115.8
Defensive rating
105.1
57.1%
Effective FG%
55.0%
53.8%
Opp. effective FG%
48.3%
15.2%
Turnover %
16.7%
27.7%
Off. rebound %
31.4%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.28
38.2%
3-point %
41.8%
59.5%
Assist %
59.1%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence122.5 · 117.1Defence115.8 · 105.1Shooting57.1% · 55.0%3-point %38.2% · 41.8%Ball care15.2% · 16.7%Off. rebounds27.7% · 31.4%Free throws0.30 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Varese   ■ Brescia
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
3
Varese wins
7
Brescia wins
DateGameScore
10/11/19Brescia v Varese91-74
20/01/19Brescia v Varese78-73
07/10/18Varese v Brescia81-80
16/05/18Varese v Brescia64-69 OT
14/05/18Brescia v Varese77-75
12/05/18Brescia v Varese68-61
11/02/18Varese v Brescia100-72
23/10/17Brescia v Varese73-67
19/03/17Brescia v Varese78-87
19/11/16Varese v Brescia68-74
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/01/20AFortitudo Bologna76-79
19/01/20HTrieste91-85
12/01/20ASassari87-93
05/01/20ATreviso84-79
29/12/19HTrento81-86
26/12/19HPistoia91-60
21/12/19ACremona72-93
15/12/19HPesaro103-87
08/12/19ACantu67-74
01/12/19HVirtus Roma99-69
Brescialast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/20HTrieste76-74
02/02/20ATrento56-63
26/01/20HBrindisi82-86
19/01/20HOlimpia Milano78-72
11/01/20AReggiana87-81
04/01/20HVenezia70-64
29/12/19ACantu93-82
26/12/19HCremona91-76
22/12/19AVirtus Roma83-53
08/12/19HPistoia86-74

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2019-20
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL47%
HomeWWWLW78%
AwayLLWLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %47%78%20%
Points / game82.688.377.5
Allowed / game80.176.783.2
Point differential+2.5+11.7-5.7
Avg total162.7165.0160.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%56%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %5%11%0%
Brescia
Lega A 2019-20
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW67%
HomeWWWLW82%
AwayLWWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211110
Win %67%82%50%
Points / game81.385.277.0
Allowed / game74.074.973.0
Point differential+7.3+10.3+4.0
Avg total155.3160.1150.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%45%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won20% (5)33% (3)0% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna2018290%86.075.0+10.9
2 Sassari2116576%85.575.9+9.6
3 Brescia2114767%81.374.0+7.3
4 Olimpia Milano2114767%80.374.0+6.3
5 Brindisi2113862%84.680.8+3.8
6 Cremona2012860%81.380.8+0.5
7 Venezia21111052%78.075.3+2.7
8 Trento21111052%77.979.3-1.4
9 Fortitudo Bologna21111052%77.379.5-2.2
10 Varese1991047%82.680.1+2.5
11 Cantu2091145%76.779.0-2.4
12 Reggiana2191243%82.984.0-1.0
13 Treviso2181338%77.179.2-2.1
14 Trieste2271532%76.080.5-4.5
15 Virtus Roma2271532%78.585.5-7.0
16 Pistoia2271532%74.583.3-8.8
17 Pesaro201195%79.292.5-13.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.