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Varese vs Olimpia Milano Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 08 Mar 2020
Tip-off: 16:00
Postponed
Position#10
Record9-10
FormLWLWL
Points / game82.6
Allowed / game80.1
vs
Position#4
Record14-7
FormWLWWW
Points / game80.3
Allowed / game74.0
ItalyLega ARound 24
Domestic2019-20
Meetings · Varese v Olimpia Milano
18 Apr 2027
VAR v MIL
upcoming
11 Oct 2025
VAR61
MIL94
15 Dec 2024
VAR94
MIL92
17 Dec 2023
VAR70
MIL74
12 Feb 2023
VAR75
MIL87
10 Oct 2021
VAR79
MIL82
06 Dec 2020
VAR70
MIL96
29 Aug 2020
VAR77
MIL110
08 Mar 2020
VAR v MIL
upcoming
13 Apr 2019
VAR84
MIL94
29 Jan 2018
VAR76
MIL72
05 Feb 2017
VAR82
MIL98
24 Jan 2016
VAR64
MIL86
23 Nov 2014
VAR97
MIL105
27 Jan 2014
VAR71
MIL76
14 Apr 2013
VAR95
MIL81
07 Feb 2013
VAR92
MIL74
22 Jan 2012
VAR74
MIL64
17 Apr 2011
VAR82
MIL71
11 Oct 2009
VAR73
MIL66
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Varese win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Olimpia Milano win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

VareseItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Roma
#15
W
99-69
99
69
+30
H01/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
67-74
67
74
-7
A08/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#17
W
103-87
103
87
+16
H15/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
72-93
72
93
-21
A21/12
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
W
91-60
91
60
+31
H26/12
Lega A
Trento
#8
L
81-86
81
86
-5
H29/12
Lega A
Treviso
#13
W
84-79
84
79
+5
A05/01
Lega A
Sassari
#2
L
87-93
87
93
-6
A12/01
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
91-85
91
85
+6
H19/01
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#9
L
76-79
76
79
-3
A26/01
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
34-19
24-20
21-15
20-15
14-14
21-23
12-17
20-20
25-24
31-30
26-20
21-13
24-18
17-29
16-24
15-22
26-14
18-19
24-15
23-12
16-20
20-26
17-19
28-21
23-17
14-27
22-11
25-24
25-28
18-22
27-25
17-18
20-20
22-18
33-21
16-26
20-24
28-20
13-20
15-15
165.6Avg total
85.1Scored
80.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (19)82.680.1162.7+2.547%
Season at home (9)88.376.7165.0+11.778%
Season away (10)77.583.2160.7-5.720%
Last 10 (10)85.180.5165.6+4.650%
Last 5 (5)83.884.4168.2-0.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)73.286.2159.5-13.00%
vs Similar ◀ (11)81.086.7167.7-5.727%
vs Weaker (15)83.373.1156.5+10.267%
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Olimpia MilanoItalyLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pesaro
#17
W
71-65
71
65
+6
A08/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
W
71-70
71
70
+1
A15/12
Lega A
Trento
#8
W
81-69
81
69
+12
H22/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
70-83
70
83
-13
A29/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
83-89
83
89
-6
H05/01
Lega A
Treviso
#13
W
91-67
91
67
+24
H12/01
Lega A
Brescia
#3
L
72-78
72
78
-6
A19/01
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
85-67
85
67
+18
A26/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
W
77-74
77
74
+3
A01/02
Lega A
Cremona
#6
W
77-74
77
74
+3
H09/02
Lega A
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
17-16
14-14
21-16
19-19
20-19
21-22
18-13
12-16
28-21
15-17
19-9
19-22
20-24
20-22
16-17
14-20
19-22
17-26
26-13
21-28
19-22
22-19
20-15
30-11
15-9
19-20
17-27
21-22
23-15
18-19
25-12
19-21
14-16
18-18
24-15
21-25
23-16
19-23
17-22
18-13
151.4Avg total
77.8Scored
73.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (21)80.374.0154.4+6.367%
Season at home (11)84.575.0159.5+9.573%
Season away (10)75.873.0148.8+2.860%
Last 10 (10)77.873.6151.4+4.270%
Last 5 (5)80.472.0152.4+8.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)82.592.0174.5-9.50%
vs Similar ◀ (10)82.379.9162.2+2.460%
vs Weaker (18)81.173.8154.9+7.372%
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +2.9+2.9Q1: +1.8+1.8Q2Q2: -2.1-2.1Q2: -1.7-1.7Q3Q3: +2.4+2.4Q3: +4.4+4.4Q4Q4: +1.4+1.4Q4: -0.3-0.3
VareseOlimpia Milano
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
VareseLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Virtus Roma
#15
W
58-39
58
39
+19
H01/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
35-37
35
37
-2
A08/12
Lega A
Pesaro
#17
W
56-54
56
54
+2
H15/12
Lega A
Cremona
#6
L
41-47
41
47
-6
A21/12
Lega A
Pistoia
#16
W
44-33
44
33
+11
H26/12
Lega A
Trento
#8
L
36-46
36
46
-10
H29/12
Lega A
Treviso
#13
L
37-44
37
44
-7
A05/01
Lega A
Sassari
#2
L
43-50
43
50
-7
A12/01
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
42-38
42
38
+4
H19/01
Lega A
Fortitudo Bologna
#9
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A26/01
Lega A
87.2Avg total
44.0Scored
43.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)40.639.379.9+1.357%-
Last 30 at home (15)41.936.678.5+5.380%-
Last 30 away (15)39.341.981.3-2.633%-
Last 10 (10)44.043.287.2+0.850%-
Last 5 (5)41.244.485.6-3.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)34.043.277.2-9.20%-
vs Similar ◀ (11)40.041.381.3-1.355%-
vs Weaker (15)42.836.779.5+6.173%-
This opponent (Olimpia Milano) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Olimpia MilanoLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Pesaro
#17
W
31-30
31
30
+1
A08/12
Lega A
Venezia
#7
D
41-41
41
41
+0
A15/12
Lega A
Trento
#8
W
43-38
43
38
+5
H22/12
Lega A
Virtus Bologna
#1
L
40-46
40
46
-6
A29/12
Lega A
Cantu
#11
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H05/01
Lega A
Treviso
#13
D
41-41
41
41
+0
H12/01
Lega A
Brescia
#3
W
34-29
34
29
+5
A19/01
Lega A
Trieste
#14
W
41-34
41
34
+7
A26/01
Lega A
Brindisi
#5
L
32-34
32
34
-2
A01/02
Lega A
Cremona
#6
W
42-39
42
39
+3
H09/02
Lega A
76.1Avg total
38.1Scored
38.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)39.438.077.4+1.450%-
Last 30 at home (16)41.538.279.7+3.356%-
Last 30 away (14)37.037.974.9-0.943%-
Last 10 (10)38.138.076.1+0.150%-
Last 5 (5)38.035.473.4+2.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)46.544.090.5+2.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)40.138.878.9+1.340%-
vs Weaker (18)38.236.975.2+1.356%-
This opponent (Varese) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Varesetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Varese: 84.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀38%
🏀🏀🏀44%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.2 pts a game · 44% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.9 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers28.116.0
56.9%
52.0%32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.512.4
38.2%
35.1%37.2
🏀 Free throws18.314.9
81.4%
73.6%14.9
They take 60.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 54% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Olimpia Milanotheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Olimpia Milano: 76.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀24%
🏀🏀 2-pointers32.0 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers26.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 24% of the points
League average for comparison: 78.6 points a game
50%
33%
17%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers34.316.0
46.6%
52.0%32.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers23.48.7
37.2%
35.1%26.1
🏀 Free throws24.718.5
74.9%
73.6%18.5
They take 57.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 23.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 08 Mar 2020 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Varese
LWLWLWLWLW
Olimpia Milano
WWWLWLLWWW
#10
League position
#4
+6.7
Net rating
+5.4
122.5
Offensive rating
109.1
115.8
Defensive rating
103.7
57.1%
Effective FG%
50.3%
53.8%
Opp. effective FG%
47.9%
15.2%
Turnover %
19.3%
27.7%
Off. rebound %
33.1%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.43
38.2%
3-point %
37.2%
59.5%
Assist %
55.9%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence122.5 · 109.1Defence115.8 · 103.7Shooting57.1% · 50.3%3-point %38.2% · 37.2%Ball care15.2% · 19.3%Off. rebounds27.7% · 33.1%Free throws0.30 · 0.43Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Varese   ■ Olimpia Milano
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
1
Varese wins
9
Olimpia Milano wins
Vareselast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/01/20AFortitudo Bologna76-79
19/01/20HTrieste91-85
12/01/20ASassari87-93
05/01/20ATreviso84-79
29/12/19HTrento81-86
26/12/19HPistoia91-60
21/12/19ACremona72-93
15/12/19HPesaro103-87
08/12/19ACantu67-74
01/12/19HVirtus Roma99-69
DateH/AOpponentScore
09/02/20HCremona77-74
01/02/20ABrindisi77-74
26/01/20ATrieste85-67
19/01/20ABrescia72-78
12/01/20HTreviso91-67
05/01/20HCantu83-89
29/12/19AVirtus Bologna70-83
22/12/19HTrento81-69
15/12/19AVenezia71-70
08/12/19APesaro71-65

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Varese
Lega A 2019-20
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWL47%
HomeWWWLW78%
AwayLLWLL20%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games19910
Win %47%78%20%
Points / game82.688.377.5
Allowed / game80.176.783.2
Point differential+2.5+11.7-5.7
Avg total162.7165.0160.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%56%10%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (4)50% (2)50% (2)
Overtime %5%11%0%
Olimpia Milano
Lega A 2019-20
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW67%
HomeWWLWW73%
AwayWLLWW60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games211110
Win %67%73%60%
Points / game80.384.575.8
Allowed / game74.075.073.0
Point differential+6.3+9.5+2.8
Avg total154.4159.5148.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+43%64%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)50% (2)50% (4)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Virtus Bologna2018290%86.075.0+10.9
2 Sassari2116576%85.575.9+9.6
3 Brescia2114767%81.374.0+7.3
4 Olimpia Milano2114767%80.374.0+6.3
5 Brindisi2113862%84.680.8+3.8
6 Cremona2012860%81.380.8+0.5
7 Venezia21111052%78.075.3+2.7
8 Trento21111052%77.979.3-1.4
9 Fortitudo Bologna21111052%77.379.5-2.2
10 Varese1991047%82.680.1+2.5
11 Cantu2091145%76.779.0-2.4
12 Reggiana2191243%82.984.0-1.0
13 Treviso2181338%77.179.2-2.1
14 Trieste2271532%76.080.5-4.5
15 Virtus Roma2271532%78.585.5-7.0
16 Pistoia2271532%74.583.3-8.8
17 Pesaro201195%79.292.5-13.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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