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Adelaide vs Sydney Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 13 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 04:00
Scheduled
Position#5
Record7-6
FormLWLWW
Points / game92.9
Allowed / game92.5
vs
Form · last 5 games
5.3/10
Around normal
4.8/10
Around normal
Position#1
Record9-4
FormWWWLW
Points / game98.6
Allowed / game89.7
AustraliaNBLRound 12· Adelaide Entertainment Centre
Other2026-27
Meetings · Adelaide v Sydney
30 Jan 2027
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
13 Dec 2026
ADEL v SYDN
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
ADEL92
SYDN91
27 Mar 2026
ADEL91
SYDN89
02 Jan 2026
ADEL85
SYDN79
11 Oct 2025
ADEL79
SYDN103
11 Oct 2024
ADEL89
SYDN79
22 Sep 2024
ADEL94
SYDN102
02 Feb 2024
ADEL85
SYDN78
11 Jan 2024
ADEL95
SYDN82
03 Feb 2023
ADEL115
SYDN108
09 Apr 2022
ADEL77
SYDN84
27 Feb 2022
ADEL90
SYDN93
06 Feb 2021
ADEL75
SYDN94
30 Jan 2021
ADEL85
SYDN80
02 Nov 2019
ADEL96
SYDN98
10 Nov 2018
ADEL81
SYDN93
19 Oct 2018
ADEL106
SYDN101
18 Nov 2017
ADEL108
SYDN93
21 Oct 2017
ADEL114
SYDN84
21 Jan 2017
ADEL87
SYDN73
16 Dec 2016
ADEL82
SYDN80
20 Jan 2016
ADEL96
SYDN89
07 Nov 2015
ADEL99
SYDN98
06 Feb 2015
ADEL97
SYDN78
30 Nov 2014
ADEL83
SYDN90
12 Jan 2014
ADEL89
SYDN102
03 Nov 2013
ADEL97
SYDN84
13 Jan 2013
ADEL82
SYDN64
02 Dec 2012
ADEL85
SYDN88
12 Nov 2011
ADEL104
SYDN113
21 Oct 2011
ADEL71
SYDN94
17 Dec 2010
ADEL81
SYDN77
06 Nov 2010
ADEL87
SYDN75
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Adelaide win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Sydney win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

AdelaideAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormAdelaide
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
92-114
92
114
-22
87avg 86
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
72-88
72
88
-16
61avg 86
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
91-96
91
96
-5
79avg 86
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
W
84-78
84
78
+6
76avg 86
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
94-88
94
88
+6
85avg 86
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
94-108
94
108
-14
86avg 86
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
108-101
108
101
+7
106avg 86
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
89-96
89
96
-7
77avg 86
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
106-78
106
78
+28
no box
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
101-93
101
93
+8
no box
H12/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-35
14-30
32-27
25-22
19-23
23-25
15-12
15-28
21-31
17-25
21-20
32-20
18-18
23-26
20-12
23-22
14-22
26-17
31-23
23-26
25-42
18-30
29-14
22-22
28-24
28-20
18-28
34-29
17-30
26-20
23-26
23-20
22-21
27-16
36-23
21-18
27-10
32-25
21-27
21-31
187.1Avg total
93.1Scored
94.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)92.992.5185.4+0.554%
Season at home (6)90.386.7177.0+3.750%
Season away (7)95.197.4192.6-2.357%
Last 10 (10)93.194.0187.1-0.950%
Last 5 (5)99.695.2194.8+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)92.997.9190.7-5.050%
vs Similar (10)93.795.5189.2-1.850%
vs Weaker (6)96.088.5184.5+7.550%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
L
78-84
78
84
-6
75avg 98
H11/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
101-102
101
102
-1
92avg 98
H14/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
102-81
102
81
+21
96avg 98
H17/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
108-82
108
82
+26
109avg 98
A22/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
95-105
95
105
-10
96avg 98
A25/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
99-91
99
91
+8
100avg 98
A28/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
71-68
71
68
+3
57avg 98
A30/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
110-99
110
99
+11
no box
H08/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
82-84
82
84
-2
no box
A13/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
111-102 OT
111
102
+9
no box
H15/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-18
26-23
12-20
22-23
29-31
32-20
12-24
28-27
31-21
21-22
24-20
26-18
20-19
28-17
34-16
26-30
31-32
20-24
13-21
31-28
33-17
26-25
21-28
19-21
19-19
18-12
13-24
21-13
28-38
26-13
29-19
27-29
29-12
24-20
14-31
15-21
21-20
24-25
20-19
22-23
185.5Avg total
95.7Scored
89.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)98.689.7188.3+8.969%
Season at home (8)103.492.0195.4+11.475%
Season away (5)91.086.0177.0+5.060%
Last 10 (10)95.789.8185.5+5.960%
Last 5 (5)94.688.8183.4+5.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)95.0105.0200.0-10.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)102.689.4192.0+13.283%
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.4-4.4Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: +4.4+4.4Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: -3.0-3.0Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +0.4+0.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -4.4-4.4Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: +0.0+0.0Q2: +4.4+4.4Q3Q3: +3.4+3.4Q3: -3.0-3.0Q4Q4: +0.1+0.1Q4: +0.4+0.4
AdelaideSydney
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
AdelaideLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Illawarra Hawks
#9
L
35-65
35
65
-30
A02/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
42-48
42
48
-6
H04/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
38-56
38
56
-18
H07/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
41-44
41
44
-3
A11/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
40-39
40
39
+1
A16/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
L
43-72
43
72
-29
A24/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
56-44
56
44
+12
A30/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
43-50
43
50
-7
H01/11
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
49-37
49
37
+12
H07/11
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
59-35
59
35
+24
H12/11
NBL
93.6Avg total
44.6Scored
49.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)47.148.595.6-1.453%-
Last 30 at home (13)48.046.494.4+1.654%-
Last 30 away (17)46.450.196.5-3.853%-
Last 10 (10)44.649.093.6-4.440%-
Last 5 (5)50.047.697.6+2.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (14)48.949.998.9-1.050%-
vs Similar (10)44.547.992.4-3.450%-
vs Weaker (6)47.046.293.2+0.867%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H11/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
61-51
61
51
+10
H14/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
52-43
52
43
+9
H17/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A22/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
51-56
51
56
-5
A25/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
59-42
59
42
+17
A28/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A30/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
54-51
54
51
+3
H08/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
53-32
53
32
+21
A13/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H15/11
NBL
93.2Avg total
50.4Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.945.798.6+7.277%-
Last 30 at home (18)54.245.8100.0+8.383%-
Last 30 away (12)51.045.596.5+5.567%-
Last 10 (10)50.442.893.2+7.680%-
Last 5 (5)49.640.289.8+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)51.056.0107.0-5.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)53.045.398.3+7.679%-
This opponent (Adelaide) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Adelaidetheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Adelaide: 90.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.8 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.2 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers40.722.9
56.3%
56.4%45.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.09.4
30.3%
34.2%28.2
🏀 Free throws23.116.4
71.0%
74.0%16.4
They take 71.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 97.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.125.5
57.8%
56.4%51.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.810.2
35.4%
34.2%30.6
🏀 Free throws20.515.7
76.6%
74.0%15.7
They take 72.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 13 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Adelaide
WWLWLWWLLL
Sydney
WLWWWLWWLL
#5
League position
#1
-3.3
Net rating
+9.9
99.1
Offensive rating
105.0
102.4
Defensive rating
95.0
51.6%
Effective FG%
56.0%
57.6%
Opp. effective FG%
51.0%
11.2%
Turnover %
11.6%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.28
30.3%
3-point %
35.4%
67.5%
Assist %
58.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence99.1 · 105.0Defence102.4 · 95.0Shooting51.6% · 56.0%3-point %30.3% · 35.4%Ball care11.2% · 11.6%Free throws0.32 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)50% · 60%
■ Adelaide   ■ Sydney
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Adelaide wins
6
Sydney wins
DateGameScore
11/10/26Sydney v Adelaide78-84
05/04/26Sydney v Adelaide113-101 OT
01/04/26Adelaide v Sydney92-91
29/03/26Sydney v Adelaide106-93
27/03/26Adelaide v Sydney91-89
21/03/26Sydney v Adelaide112-68
25/01/26Sydney v Adelaide106-101
02/01/26Adelaide v Sydney85-79
17/12/25Sydney v Adelaide97-93 OT
11/10/25Adelaide v Sydney79-103
Adelaidelast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26HMelbourne United101-93
07/11/26HIllawarra Hawks106-78
01/11/26HBrisbane Bullets89-96
30/10/26ANew Zealand Breakers108-101
24/10/26ASouth East Melbourne94-108
16/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers94-88
11/10/26ASydney84-78
07/10/26HMelbourne United91-96
04/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers72-88
02/10/26AIllawarra Hawks92-114
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HNew Zealand Breakers111-102 OT
13/11/26ACairns Taipans82-84
08/11/26HSouth East Melbourne110-99
30/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers71-68
28/10/26APerth99-91
25/10/26AMelbourne United95-105
22/10/26AIllawarra Hawks108-82
17/10/26HPerth102-81
14/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers101-102
11/10/26HAdelaide78-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Adelaide
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLWW54%
HomeLLLWW50%
AwayLWWLW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1367
Win %54%50%57%
Points / game92.990.395.1
Allowed / game92.586.797.4
Point differential+0.5+3.7-2.3
Avg total185.4177.0192.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+15%33%0%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Sydney
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW69%
HomeLLWWW75%
AwayWLWWL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %69%75%60%
Points / game98.6103.491.0
Allowed / game89.792.086.0
Point differential+8.9+11.4+5.0
Avg total188.3195.4177.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%62%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %8%12%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney139469%98.689.7+8.9
2 Tasmania JackJumpers139469%94.790.4+4.3
3 Melbourne United148657%98.391.9+6.4
4 Cairns Taipans148657%92.495.9-3.6
5 Adelaide137654%92.992.5+0.5
6 Perth137654%95.797.8-2.1
7 Brisbane Bullets146843%94.499.2-4.9
8 New Zealand Breakers145936%90.691.4-0.8
9 Illawarra Hawks1551033%97.5104.7-7.3
10 South East Melbourne134931%97.998.1-0.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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