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Denver Nuggets vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction & Stats

Date: Mon 12 Apr 2027
Tip-off: 00:30
Scheduled
Position#15
Record5-4
FormWLWWL
Points / game113.6
Allowed / game112.8
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
4.7/10
Around normal
Position#8
Record8-3
FormWWWWL
Points / game111.4
Allowed / game105.9
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Oklahoma City Thunder
02 Feb 2027
DEN v OKC
upcoming
10 Apr 2026
DEN127
OKC107
01 Feb 2026
DEN111
OKC121
15 May 2025
DEN119
OKC107
11 May 2025
DEN87
OKC92
09 May 2025
DEN113
OKC104
06 Nov 2024
DEN124
OKC122
24 Oct 2024
DEN87
OKC102
29 Dec 2023
DEN93
OKC119
16 Dec 2023
DEN117
OKC118
22 Jan 2023
DEN99
OKC101
22 Oct 2022
DEN122
OKC117
26 Mar 2022
DEN113
OKC107
02 Mar 2022
DEN107
OKC119
12 Feb 2021
DEN97
OKC95
19 Jan 2021
DEN119
OKC101
30 Mar 2020
DEN v OKC
upcoming
14 Dec 2019
DEN110
OKC102
26 Feb 2019
DEN121
OKC112
14 Dec 2018
DEN109
OKC98
01 Feb 2018
DEN127
OKC124
09 Nov 2017
DEN102
OKC94
09 Apr 2017
DEN105
OKC106
25 Nov 2016
DEN129
OKC132
05 Apr 2016
DEN102
OKC124
19 Jan 2016
DEN104
OKC110
09 Feb 2015
DEN114
OKC124
19 Nov 2014
DEN107
OKC100
09 Jan 2014
DEN101
OKC88
17 Dec 2013
DEN93
OKC105
01 Mar 2013
DEN105
OKC103
20 Jan 2013
DEN121
OKC118
15 Mar 2012
DEN90
OKC103
25 Apr 2011
DEN104
OKC101
23 Apr 2011
DEN94
OKC97
05 Apr 2011
DEN94
OKC101
19 Jan 2011
DEN112
OKC107
03 Mar 2010
DEN119
OKC90
14 Dec 2009
DEN102
OKC93
08 Apr 2009
DEN122
OKC112
11 Mar 2009
DEN112
OKC99
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Oklahoma City Thunder win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
98-110
98
110
-12
90avg 100
A01/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#8
L
84-96
84
96
-12
62avg 100
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 100
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#6
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 100
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 100
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 100
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#11
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 100
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#16
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 100
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 100
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#7
L
100-110
100
110
-10
87avg 100
A10/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-29
20-28
24-25
24-28
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
27-19
37-22
26-37
24-24
24-32
16-22
28-23
32-33
224.5Avg total
112.0Scored
112.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)113.6112.8226.3+0.856%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (5)105.8103.8209.6+2.060%
Last 10 (10)112.0112.5224.5-0.550%
Last 5 (5)115.8111.8227.6+4.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)107.0113.0220.0-6.020%
vs Similar (12)117.3116.5233.8+0.858%
vs Weaker (13)127.1115.8242.9+11.292%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#15
W
96-84
96
84
+12
83avg 95
H23/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
W
108-101
108
101
+7
97avg 95
H25/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
125-114
125
114
+11
119avg 95
H27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
96-120
96
120
-24
76avg 95
A29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#7
L
98-119
98
119
-21
72avg 95
A01/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
117-112
117
112
+5
95avg 95
A03/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
124-116
124
116
+8
116avg 95
H05/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#10
W
128-97
128
97
+31
117avg 95
A07/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#21
W
114-75
114
75
+39
114avg 95
H08/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#11
L
103-123
103
123
-20
93avg 95
A11/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-27
20-21
26-16
26-20
23-20
20-26
34-30
31-25
33-27
34-26
32-32
26-29
30-33
29-32
22-29
15-26
26-35
25-27
24-30
23-27
26-30
33-18
31-36
27-28
37-20
23-24
28-30
36-42
35-28
36-21
27-27
30-21
25-19
32-17
33-23
24-16
27-26
32-33
21-38
23-26
217.0Avg total
110.9Scored
106.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)111.4105.9217.3+5.573%
Season at home (5)113.498.0211.4+15.4100%
Season away (6)109.7112.5222.2-2.850%
Last 10 (10)110.9106.1217.0+4.870%
Last 5 (5)117.2104.6221.8+12.680%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)116.0104.0220.0+12.0100%
vs Similar (13)109.9113.5223.5-3.646%
vs Weaker ◀ (16)117.1104.4221.5+12.888%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q2: +3.9+3.9Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +0.1+0.1
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: +1.8+1.8Q1: +2.1+2.1Q2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q2: +3.9+3.9Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: -0.4-0.4Q4: +0.1+0.1
Denver NuggetsOklahoma City Thunder
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
50-57
50
57
-7
A01/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#8
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#6
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#11
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#16
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#7
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A10/11
NBA
113.9Avg total
57.3Scored
56.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.958.2118.1+1.750%-
Last 30 at home (17)62.361.1123.4+1.241%-
Last 30 away (13)56.854.4111.2+2.462%-
Last 10 (10)57.356.6113.9+0.750%-
Last 5 (5)61.057.4118.4+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)53.853.4107.2+0.460%-
vs Similar (12)58.559.2117.8-0.842%-
vs Weaker (13)63.559.0122.5+4.554%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Denver Nuggets
#15
L
44-48
44
48
-4
H23/10
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#25
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H25/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
67-53
67
53
+14
H27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
59-65
59
65
-6
A29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#7
L
51-62
51
62
-11
A01/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
59-48
59
48
+11
A03/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#17
W
60-44
60
44
+16
H05/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#10
W
71-49
71
49
+22
A07/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#21
W
57-36
57
36
+21
H08/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#11
D
59-59
59
59
+0
A11/11
NBA
108.0Avg total
57.0Scored
51.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.053.1111.1+4.957%-
Last 30 at home (14)57.151.8108.9+5.357%-
Last 30 away (16)58.854.2113.0+4.656%-
Last 10 (10)57.051.0108.0+6.050%-
Last 5 (5)61.247.2108.4+14.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)65.044.0109.0+21.0100%-
vs Similar (13)56.654.2110.8+2.546%-
vs Weaker ◀ (16)58.752.8111.4+5.962%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 109.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀20%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.4 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.5 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.7 pts a game · 20% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.029.7
55.0%
54.0%59.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.89.5
30.8%
35.0%28.5
🏀 Free throws27.321.7
79.5%
76.8%21.7
They take 84.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 107.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.627.1
48.7%
54.0%54.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.911.2
34.0%
35.0%33.6
🏀 Free throws23.019.6
85.2%
76.8%19.6
They take 88.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 12 Apr 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWWLWWLWLL
Oklahoma City Thunder
LWWWWLLWWW
#15
League position
#8
-3.7
Net rating
-0.6
107.0
Offensive rating
103.1
110.7
Defensive rating
103.7
51.8%
Effective FG%
49.6%
53.6%
Opp. effective FG%
50.0%
11.7%
Turnover %
13.1%
15.0%
Off. rebound %
24.0%
0.32
Free-throw rate
0.26
30.8%
3-point %
34.0%
63.8%
Assist %
61.4%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence107.0 · 103.1Defence110.7 · 103.7Shooting51.8% · 49.6%3-point %30.8% · 34.0%Ball care11.7% · 13.1%Off. rebounds15.0% · 24.0%Free throws0.32 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Oklahoma City Thunder
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
10/11/26AHouston Rockets100-110
07/11/26AIndiana Pacers114-102
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96
01/05/26AMinnesota Timberwolves98-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/11/26APortland Trail Blazers103-123
08/11/26HWashington Wizards114-75
07/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies128-97
05/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers124-116
03/11/26ACleveland Cavaliers117-112
01/11/26AHouston Rockets98-119
29/10/26ADallas Mavericks96-120
27/10/26HPhoenix Suns125-114
25/10/26HLos Angeles Clippers108-101
23/10/26HDenver Nuggets96-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL56%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayLWWWL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %56%50%60%
Points / game113.6123.2105.8
Allowed / game112.8124.0103.8
Point differential+0.8-0.8+2.0
Avg total226.3247.2209.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%25%40%
Close games (≤5 pts) won---
Overtime %11%25%0%
Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL73%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLLWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1156
Win %73%100%50%
Points / game111.4113.4109.7
Allowed / game105.998.0112.5
Point differential+5.5+15.4-2.8
Avg total217.3211.4222.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%60%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1210283%122.1114.4+7.7
2 Boston Celtics119282%115.7104.0+11.7
3 San Antonio Spurs119282%118.7107.0+11.7
4 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
5 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
6 Golden State Warriors118373%120.4111.2+9.2
7 Houston Rockets118373%115.5106.4+9.1
8 Oklahoma City Thunder118373%111.4105.9+5.5
9 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
10 Memphis Grizzlies107370%117.9110.8+7.1
11 Portland Trail Blazers107370%119.7112.7+7.0
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 New York Knicks106460%110.6102.3+8.3
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 Denver Nuggets95456%113.6112.8+0.8
16 Toronto Raptors105550%116.6113.3+3.3
17 Cleveland Cavaliers115645%116.5115.0+1.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 New Orleans Pelicans114736%117.5122.4-4.9
21 Washington Wizards114736%108.1113.4-5.3
22 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
23 Orlando Magic103730%107.0114.6-7.6
24 Indiana Pacers113827%111.4115.2-3.8
25 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
26 Brooklyn Nets102820%106.7115.7-9.0
27 Chicago Bulls91811%112.7129.3-16.7
28 Utah Jazz111109%106.5117.6-11.2
29 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
30 Milwaukee Bucks111109%106.3121.2-14.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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