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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 14 May 2025
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 112-105
27-28 27-28 24-30 34-19
Position#1
Record72-16
FormWLWLW
Points / game120.4
Allowed / game107.4
vs
Position#9
Record56-37
FormWWLWL
Points / game119.2
Allowed / game116.2
USANBANBA - Quarter-finals· Paycom Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets
30 Jan 2027
OKC v DEN
upcoming
22 Oct 2026
OKC96
DEN84
09 Mar 2026
OKC129
DEN126
27 Feb 2026
OKC127
DEN121
18 May 2025
OKC125
DEN93
13 May 2025
OKC112
DEN105
07 May 2025
OKC149
DEN106
05 May 2025
OKC119
DEN121
10 Mar 2025
OKC127
DEN140
09 Mar 2025
OKC127
DEN103
31 Jan 2024
OKC105
DEN100
29 Oct 2023
OKC95
DEN128
23 Nov 2022
OKC126
DEN131
03 Nov 2022
OKC110
DEN122
09 Jan 2022
OKC95
DEN99
22 Dec 2021
OKC108
DEN94
27 Feb 2021
OKC96
DEN126
03 Aug 2020
OKC113
DEN121
21 Feb 2020
OKC113
DEN101
29 Mar 2019
OKC105
DEN115
24 Nov 2018
OKC98
DEN105
30 Mar 2018
OKC125
DEN126
18 Dec 2017
OKC95
DEN94
12 Apr 2017
OKC105
DEN111
07 Jan 2017
OKC121
DEN106
27 Dec 2015
OKC122
DEN112
01 Nov 2015
OKC117
DEN93
22 Feb 2015
OKC119
DEN94
01 Nov 2014
OKC102
DEN91
24 Mar 2014
OKC117
DEN96
18 Nov 2013
OKC115
DEN113
19 Mar 2013
OKC104
DEN114
16 Jan 2013
OKC117
DEN97
25 Apr 2012
OKC101
DEN106
19 Feb 2012
OKC124
DEN118
27 Apr 2011
OKC100
DEN97
20 Apr 2011
OKC106
DEN89
17 Apr 2011
OKC107
DEN103
08 Apr 2011
OKC104
DEN89
25 Dec 2010
OKC114
DEN106
07 Apr 2010
OKC94
DEN98
29 Jan 2010
OKC101
DEN84
04 Feb 2009
OKC113
DEN114
02 Jan 2009
OKC120
DEN122
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#30
W
145-111
145
111
+34
148avg 111
A12/04
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
115-100
115
100
+15
100avg 111
A13/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
131-80
131
80
+51
134avg 111
H20/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
118-99
118
99
+19
104avg 111
H22/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 111
A25/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
117-115
117
115
+2
97avg 111
A26/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
119-121
119
121
-2
103avg 111
H06/05
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
149-106
149
106
+43
149avg 111
H08/05
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
L
104-113 OT
104
113
-9
88avg 111
A10/05
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
92-87
92
87
+5
83avg 111
A11/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
46-34
27-24
34-28
38-25
38-19
26-30
26-23
25-28
32-20
36-16
44-27
19-17
32-17
38-35
20-27
28-20
29-40
22-37
36-18
27-13
34-31
26-28
28-26
29-30
27-26
33-24
30-35
29-36
45-21
42-35
37-20
25-30
28-22
28-29
27-29
19-22
17-8
25-28
21-33
29-18
224.4Avg total
120.4Scored
104.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (88)120.4107.4227.9+13.082%
Season at home (44)123.5107.2230.7+16.484%
Season away (44)117.3107.7225.0+9.680%
Last 10 (10)120.4104.0224.4+16.480%
Last 5 (5)116.2108.4224.6+7.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)118.0112.0230.0+6.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)122.3108.4230.7+13.883%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
102-105
102
105
-3
99avg 114
H22/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
83-117
83
117
-34
72avg 114
A25/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
101-99
101
99
+2
97avg 114
A26/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
131-115
131
115
+16
127avg 114
H30/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
105-111
105
111
-6
99avg 114
A02/05
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
120-101
120
101
+19
113avg 114
H03/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
121-119
121
119
+2
113avg 114
A06/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
106-149
106
149
-43
87avg 114
A08/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
113-104 OT
113
104
+9
109avg 114
H10/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
87-92
87
92
-5
73avg 114
H11/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-25
21-30
24-23
26-27
28-35
19-30
23-25
13-27
27-22
23-26
35-17
16-34
35-23
32-36
32-24
32-32
28-25
29-33
22-32
26-21
21-26
37-21
35-19
27-35
26-27
24-33
35-30
36-29
21-45
35-42
20-37
30-25
22-28
29-28
29-27
22-19
8-17
28-25
33-21
18-29
218.1Avg total
106.9Scored
111.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (93)119.2116.2235.4+3.060%
Season at home (47)121.2115.4236.7+5.864%
Season away (46)117.1116.9234.0+0.157%
Last 10 (10)106.9111.2218.1-4.350%
Last 5 (5)109.4113.0222.4-3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)111.7119.7231.3-8.050%
vs Similar (19)114.5114.3228.7+0.258%
vs Weaker (5)117.2117.8235.0-0.620%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +9.0+9.0Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: -3.2-3.2
-11-6+0+6+11Q1Q1: +9.0+9.0Q1: -2.6-2.6Q2Q2: +1.7+1.7Q2: -2.7-2.7Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +3.3+3.3Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: -3.2-3.2
Oklahoma City ThunderDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#30
W
73-58
73
58
+15
A12/04
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
64-49
64
49
+15
A13/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
68-36
68
36
+32
H20/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
70-52
70
52
+18
H22/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
L
51-77
51
77
-26
A25/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
60-59
60
59
+1
A26/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
60-50
60
50
+10
H06/05
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
87-56
87
56
+31
H08/05
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
56-51
56
51
+5
A10/05
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#9
W
42-36
42
36
+6
A11/05
NBA
115.5Avg total
63.1Scored
52.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)63.155.3118.4+7.887%-
Last 30 at home (16)67.555.6123.1+11.994%-
Last 30 away (14)58.154.9113.1+3.279%-
Last 10 (10)63.152.4115.5+10.790%-
Last 5 (5)61.050.4111.4+10.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)63.060.0123.0+3.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)63.155.1118.3+8.086%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
52-55
52
55
-3
H22/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
47-65
47
65
-18
A25/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
50-48
50
48
+2
A26/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
67-59
67
59
+8
H30/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A02/05
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
58-47
58
47
+11
H03/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
50-60
50
60
-10
A06/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
56-87
56
87
-31
A08/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
51-56
51
56
-5
H10/05
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
36-42
36
42
-6
H11/05
NBA
110.1Avg total
52.4Scored
57.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.859.2117.0-1.443%-
Last 30 at home (16)57.457.1114.5+0.450%-
Last 30 away (14)58.261.6119.8-3.436%-
Last 10 (10)52.457.7110.1-5.330%-
Last 5 (5)50.258.4108.6-8.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (6)53.363.2116.5-9.80%-
vs Similar (19)58.357.9116.2+0.353%-
vs Weaker (5)61.459.0120.4+2.460%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 120.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.9 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.030.0
55.6%
54.3%60.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.113.5
32.1%
35.9%40.5
🏀 Free throws25.119.9
79.3%
77.8%19.9
They take 96.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 42.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 106.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.6 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.026.4
50.8%
54.3%52.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.012.2
37.0%
35.9%36.6
🏀 Free throws23.617.5
74.2%
77.8%17.5
They take 85.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oklahoma City Thunder
WLWLWWWWWW
Denver Nuggets
LWLWWLWWLL
#1
League position
#9
+15.7
Net rating
-4.4
115.1
Offensive rating
109.0
99.4
Defensive rating
113.4
52.3%
Effective FG%
52.6%
46.8%
Opp. effective FG%
52.9%
9.9%
Turnover %
14.9%
26.3%
Off. rebound %
27.3%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.28
32.1%
3-point %
37.0%
60.5%
Assist %
58.5%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence115.1 · 109.0Defence99.4 · 113.4Shooting52.3% · 52.6%3-point %32.1% · 37.0%Ball care9.9% · 14.9%Off. rebounds26.3% · 27.3%Free throws0.26 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Oklahoma City Thunder   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
11/05/25ADenver Nuggets92-87
10/05/25ADenver Nuggets104-113 OT
08/05/25HDenver Nuggets149-106
06/05/25HDenver Nuggets119-121
26/04/25AMemphis Grizzlies117-115
25/04/25AMemphis Grizzlies114-108
22/04/25HMemphis Grizzlies118-99
20/04/25HMemphis Grizzlies131-80
13/04/25ANew Orleans Pelicans115-100
12/04/25AUtah Jazz145-111
DateH/AOpponentScore
11/05/25HOklahoma City Thunder87-92
10/05/25HOklahoma City Thunder113-104 OT
08/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder106-149
06/05/25AOklahoma City Thunder121-119
03/05/25HLos Angeles Clippers120-101
02/05/25ALos Angeles Clippers105-111
30/04/25HLos Angeles Clippers131-115
26/04/25ALos Angeles Clippers101-99
25/04/25ALos Angeles Clippers83-117
22/04/25HLos Angeles Clippers102-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWLW82%
HomeWWWLW84%
AwayWWWLW80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games884444
Win %82%84%80%
Points / game120.4123.5117.3
Allowed / game107.4107.2107.7
Point differential+13.0+16.4+9.6
Avg total227.9230.7225.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+62%75%50%
Close games (≤5 pts) won44% (9)0% (3)67% (6)
Overtime %2%2%2%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL60%
HomeLWWWL64%
AwayLWLWL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games934746
Win %60%64%57%
Points / game119.2121.2117.1
Allowed / game116.2115.4116.9
Point differential+3.0+5.8+0.1
Avg total235.4236.7234.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+35%40%30%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (26)43% (14)75% (12)
Overtime %9%9%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder88721682%120.4107.4+13.0
2 Cleveland Cavaliers91692276%121.7111.9+9.7
3 Boston Celtics91662573%115.3106.2+9.0
4 New York Knicks91583364%114.9111.1+3.8
5 Indiana Pacers92583463%117.4114.8+2.6
6 Houston Rockets87543362%113.9109.5+4.4
7 Minnesota Timberwolves91563562%113.5108.4+5.2
8 Denver Nuggets93563760%119.2116.2+3.0
9 Los Angeles Clippers89533660%112.5108.2+4.3
10 Los Angeles Lakers87513659%112.6111.9+0.7
11 Golden State Warriors93543958%112.8110.1+2.7
12 Memphis Grizzlies88493956%120.7116.9+3.7
13 Milwaukee Bucks85473855%115.3113.5+1.8
14 Detroit Pistons88464252%114.9113.2+1.7
15 Orlando Magic87434449%104.9105.4-0.5
16 Sacramento Kings83404348%115.6115.3+0.3
17 Dallas Mavericks83404348%114.3115.3-1.0
18 Atlanta Hawks82394348%118.2119.7-1.5
19 Chicago Bulls83394447%117.5119.2-1.8
20 Miami Heat88394944%110.0110.6-0.5
21 Portland Trail Blazers82364644%110.9113.9-3.0
22 Phoenix Suns82364644%113.6116.6-3.0
23 San Antonio Spurs82344841%113.9116.7-2.8
24 Toronto Raptors82305237%110.9115.2-4.3
25 Brooklyn Nets82265632%105.1112.2-7.1
26 Philadelphia 76ers82245829%109.6115.8-6.2
27 New Orleans Pelicans82216126%109.8119.3-9.4
28 Charlotte Hornets82196323%105.1114.2-9.1
29 Washington Wizards82186422%108.0120.4-12.4
30 Utah Jazz82176521%111.9121.2-9.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Oklahoma City Thunder27272434112
Denver Nuggets28283019105
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