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Minnesota Timberwolves vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 01 May 2026
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 110-98
29-30 28-20 25-24 28-24
Position#10
Record53-39
FormLWWWL
Points / game117.6
Allowed / game114.7
vs
Position#6
Record59-33
FormWLLLW
Points / game120.7
Allowed / game116.2
USANBA· Target Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Minnesota Timberwolves v Denver Nuggets
27 Jan 2027
MIN v DEN
upcoming
31 Dec 2026
MIN v DEN
upcoming
30 Apr 2026
MIN110
DEN98
25 Apr 2026
MIN112
DEN96
23 Apr 2026
MIN113
DEN96
15 Nov 2025
MIN112
DEN123
27 Oct 2025
MIN114
DEN127
25 Jan 2025
MIN133
DEN104
01 Nov 2024
MIN119
DEN116
17 Oct 2024
MIN126
DEN132
16 May 2024
MIN115
DEN70
12 May 2024
MIN107
DEN115
10 May 2024
MIN90
DEN117
19 Mar 2024
MIN112
DEN115
01 Nov 2023
MIN110
DEN89
23 Apr 2023
MIN114
DEN108
21 Apr 2023
MIN111
DEN120
05 Feb 2023
MIN128
DEN98
02 Jan 2023
MIN124
DEN111
08 Jul 2022
MIN85
DEN78
01 Feb 2022
MIN130
DEN115
30 Oct 2021
MIN91
DEN93
13 May 2021
MIN103
DEN114
03 Jan 2021
MIN109
DEN124
20 Jan 2020
MIN100
DEN107
10 Nov 2019
MIN98
DEN100
02 Feb 2019
MIN106
DEN107
21 Nov 2018
MIN101
DEN103
06 Jul 2018
MIN69
DEN70
11 Apr 2018
MIN112
DEN106
27 Dec 2017
MIN128
DEN125
22 Jan 2017
MIN111
DEN108
03 Nov 2016
MIN99
DEN102
12 Oct 2016
MIN105
DEN88
06 Jan 2016
MIN74
DEN78
15 Dec 2015
MIN100
DEN112
04 Mar 2015
MIN85
DEN100
05 Jan 2015
MIN101
DEN110
12 Feb 2014
MIN117
DEN90
27 Nov 2013
MIN110
DEN117
12 Dec 2012
MIN108
DEN105
21 Nov 2012
MIN94
DEN101
26 Apr 2012
MIN102
DEN131
25 Mar 2012
MIN117
DEN100
05 Feb 2011
MIN100
DEN113
29 Dec 2010
MIN113
DEN119
12 Oct 2010
MIN122
DEN108
10 Mar 2010
MIN102
DEN110
25 Nov 2009
MIN111
DEN124
05 Apr 2009
MIN87
DEN110
29 Nov 2008
MIN97
DEN106
19 Oct 2008
MIN111
DEN107
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Minnesota Timberwolves winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#15
L
108-122
108
122
-14
H05/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
124-104
124
104
+20
A07/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#12
L
120-132
120
132
-12
A08/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#7
W
136-132
136
132
+4
A11/04
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
132-126
132
126
+6
H13/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
105-116
105
116
-11
A18/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
119-114
119
114
+5
A21/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
113-96
113
96
+17
H24/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
112-96
112
96
+16
H26/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
113-125
113
125
-12
A28/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
21-29
39-26
19-34
29-33
35-27
28-26
39-24
22-27
32-34
21-29
30-38
37-31
37-36
32-37
34-33
33-26
34-24
39-35
24-31
35-36
33-23
29-39
17-29
26-25
25-39
39-25
26-29
29-21
25-11
36-28
27-29
25-28
22-23
28-31
32-24
30-18
29-34
22-26
24-37
38-28
234.5Avg total
118.2Scored
116.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (92)117.6114.7232.3+3.058%
Season at home (44)115.1111.0226.1+4.264%
Season away (48)120.0118.1238.1+1.952%
Last 10 (10)118.2116.3234.5+1.960%
Last 5 (5)112.4109.4221.8+3.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)100.0107.5207.5-7.525%
vs Similar ◀ (21)112.9116.0228.9-3.152%
vs Weaker (5)128.8109.0237.8+19.8100%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
136-134 OT
136
134
+2
H04/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
137-132 OT
137
132
+5
H07/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
136-119
136
119
+17
H09/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
127-107
127
107
+20
H11/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
128-118
128
118
+10
A13/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
116-105
116
105
+11
H18/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
114-119
114
119
-5
H21/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
96-113
96
113
-17
A24/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
96-112
96
112
-16
A26/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
125-113
125
113
+12
H28/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
36-43
29-29
27-24
32-28
31-35
27-37
29-29
38-24
37-33
31-39
39-22
29-25
34-27
25-24
31-34
37-22
37-34
33-22
31-35
27-27
23-33
39-29
29-17
25-26
39-25
25-39
29-26
21-29
11-25
28-36
29-27
28-25
23-22
31-28
24-32
18-30
34-29
26-22
37-24
28-38
238.3Avg total
121.1Scored
117.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (92)120.7116.2236.9+4.564%
Season at home (46)120.6115.3235.9+5.367%
Season away (46)120.7117.1237.8+3.761%
Last 10 (10)121.1117.2238.3+3.970%
Last 5 (5)109.4112.4221.8-3.040%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)129.0124.3253.3+4.767%
vs Similar ◀ (13)113.9113.5227.5+0.454%
vs Weaker (11)128.3119.2247.5+9.182%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +1.3+1.3Q1: -0.1-0.1Q2Q2: +1.1+1.1Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: -3.6-3.6Q3: +3.5+3.5Q4Q4: +3.1+3.1Q4: +0.9+0.9
Minnesota TimberwolvesDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
60-55
60
55
+5
H05/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
63-53
63
53
+10
A07/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#12
L
53-63
53
63
-10
A08/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#7
L
69-73
69
73
-4
A11/04
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
73-59
73
59
+14
H13/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
D
62-62
62
62
+0
A18/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
D
64-64
64
64
+0
A21/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
W
61-39
61
39
+22
H24/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H26/04
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#6
L
51-60
51
60
-9
A28/04
NBA
118.8Avg total
60.6Scored
58.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.055.1112.1+1.953%-
Last 30 at home (13)57.556.3113.8+1.254%-
Last 30 away (17)56.654.2110.8+2.453%-
Last 10 (10)60.658.2118.8+2.440%-
Last 5 (5)57.655.8113.4+1.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)49.548.598.0+1.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (21)56.756.2112.9+0.448%-
vs Weaker (5)64.255.6119.8+8.680%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
65-72
65
72
-7
H04/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
58-72
58
72
-14
H07/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
68-72
68
72
-4
H09/04
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
59-51
59
51
+8
H11/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
70-56
70
56
+14
A13/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
D
62-62
62
62
+0
H18/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
D
64-64
64
64
+0
H21/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
39-61
39
61
-22
A24/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
54-50
54
50
+4
A26/04
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
W
60-51
60
51
+9
H28/04
NBA
121.0Avg total
59.9Scored
61.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.859.3119.1+0.543%-
Last 30 at home (18)60.158.4118.6+1.744%-
Last 30 away (12)59.460.6120.0-1.242%-
Last 10 (10)59.961.1121.0-1.240%-
Last 5 (5)55.857.6113.4-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)61.060.7121.7+0.350%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)55.356.2111.5-0.946%-
vs Weaker (11)64.562.2126.7+2.436%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 118.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀33%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.7 pts a game · 33% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.430.3
56.7%
54.8%60.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.512.9
37.4%
35.8%38.7
🏀 Free throws24.018.9
78.8%
78.1%18.9
They take 87.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 121.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.4 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.130.8
55.9%
54.8%61.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.912.7
35.4%
35.8%38.1
🏀 Free throws25.821.4
82.9%
78.1%21.4
They take 91.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 39% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 01 May 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Minnesota Timberwolves
LWWWLWWLWL
Denver Nuggets
WLLLWWWWWW
#10
League position
#6
+1.8
Net rating
+3.7
114.8
Offensive rating
115.8
112.9
Defensive rating
112.0
56.5%
Effective FG%
54.8%
52.6%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
13.8%
Turnover %
11.0%
27.1%
Off. rebound %
26.3%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.28
37.4%
3-point %
35.4%
60.4%
Assist %
65.1%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence114.8 · 115.8Defence112.9 · 112.0Shooting56.5% · 54.8%3-point %37.4% · 35.4%Ball care13.8% · 11.0%Off. rebounds27.1% · 26.3%Free throws0.27 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)60% · 70%
■ Minnesota Timberwolves   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
28/04/26ADenver Nuggets113-125
26/04/26HDenver Nuggets112-96
24/04/26HDenver Nuggets113-96
21/04/26ADenver Nuggets119-114
18/04/26ADenver Nuggets105-116
13/04/26HNew Orleans Pelicans132-126
11/04/26AHouston Rockets136-132
08/04/26AOrlando Magic120-132
07/04/26AIndiana Pacers124-104
05/04/26HCharlotte Hornets108-122
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/04/26HMinnesota Timberwolves125-113
26/04/26AMinnesota Timberwolves96-112
24/04/26AMinnesota Timberwolves96-113
21/04/26HMinnesota Timberwolves114-119
18/04/26HMinnesota Timberwolves116-105
13/04/26ASan Antonio Spurs128-118
11/04/26HOklahoma City Thunder127-107
09/04/26HMemphis Grizzlies136-119
07/04/26HPortland Trail Blazers137-132 OT
04/04/26HSan Antonio Spurs136-134 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWL58%
HomeLLWWW64%
AwayLWLWL52%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games924448
Win %58%64%52%
Points / game117.6115.1120.0
Allowed / game114.7111.0118.1
Point differential+3.0+4.2+1.9
Avg total232.3226.1238.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+34%39%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won46% (26)54% (13)38% (13)
Overtime %7%5%8%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLW64%
HomeWWWLW67%
AwayWWWLL61%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games924646
Win %64%67%61%
Points / game120.7120.6120.7
Allowed / game116.2115.3117.1
Point differential+4.5+5.3+3.7
Avg total236.9235.9237.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%37%28%
Close games (≤5 pts) won52% (31)50% (12)53% (19)
Overtime %10%9%11%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder90711979%118.5108.0+10.4
2 San Antonio Spurs89682176%119.6110.9+8.8
3 Detroit Pistons91642770%116.7109.3+7.5
4 Boston Celtics92623067%114.5106.8+7.7
5 New York Knicks91593265%115.8109.0+6.7
6 Denver Nuggets92593364%120.7116.2+4.5
7 Houston Rockets91583364%115.3110.0+5.2
8 Los Angeles Lakers92573562%114.7113.7+1.0
9 Cleveland Cavaliers91563562%118.8115.3+3.5
10 Minnesota Timberwolves92533958%117.6114.7+3.0
11 Orlando Magic91523957%115.3113.7+1.5
12 Toronto Raptors92524057%114.6111.8+2.8
13 Atlanta Hawks92504254%117.2116.4+0.8
14 Phoenix Suns91494254%112.6111.0+1.6
15 Philadelphia 76ers93504354%114.4115.2-0.8
16 Charlotte Hornets89474253%116.1112.0+4.1
17 Los Angeles Clippers86444251%113.5112.3+1.2
18 Portland Trail Blazers92454749%114.9115.9-1.1
19 Miami Heat88434549%120.4118.8+1.6
20 Golden State Warriors89414846%114.6115.1-0.5
21 Milwaukee Bucks86355141%110.8116.5-5.7
22 Chicago Bulls87345339%116.5121.4-4.9
23 Dallas Mavericks86295734%114.1118.8-4.6
24 New Orleans Pelicans84265831%115.8120.3-4.5
25 Memphis Grizzlies87266130%114.8121.1-6.3
26 Utah Jazz86236327%117.8126.2-8.3
27 Sacramento Kings86236327%111.1120.9-9.8
28 Brooklyn Nets85216425%106.3116.1-9.7
29 Indiana Pacers86216524%112.6120.5-8.0
30 Washington Wizards85186721%112.8124.4-11.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Minnesota Timberwolves29282528110
Denver Nuggets3020242498
← all games of the day
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