PythiaBasketballBETA
Denver Nuggets host Phoenix Suns on 16 November 2026 in the NBA, with the Nuggets the clear favourite and the model projecting a decisive win. Denver has gone 7-4 this season, averaging 114.6 points and conceding 112.8, while Phoenix sits 5-6, scoring 111.7 and allowing 116.1; the Nuggets have been stronger at home, 2-2 with 123.2 points for and 124.0 against, whereas Phoenix have struggled on the road, 0-3 with 103.3 points for and 121.7 against. In the last five games each side has won four and lost one, but Denver's recent outings include a 116-108 win over New Orleans, a 123-118 win over Memphis and a 100-110 loss to Houston, while Phoenix's recent results feature a 101-96 win over Charlotte, a 133-110 win over Los Angeles and a 96-122 loss to San Antonio. The teams have met ten times, with Denver winning seven; the last meeting on 30 October saw Denver win 127-120. Pythia assigns a 73% chance to the Nuggets and 27% to the Suns, projecting a 119-111 score and a 229.9 total; the Nuggets are also 73% likely to cover the home line. The game carries a 5% chance of overtime. Denver's recent victory over the Pelicans suggests they will extend their winning form at Ball Arena.
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (11) | 114.6 | 112.8 | 227.5 | +1.8 | 64% |
| Season at home (4) | 123.2 | 124.0 | 247.2 | -0.8 | 50% |
| Season away (7) | 109.7 | 106.4 | 216.1 | +3.3 | 71% |
| Last 10 (10) | 117.7 | 114.5 | 232.2 | +3.2 | 70% |
| Last 5 (5) | 116.2 | 109.4 | 225.6 | +6.8 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 115.0 | 113.2 | 228.2 | +1.8 | 50% |
| vs Similar (14) | 113.9 | 114.5 | 228.4 | -0.6 | 57% |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 127.5 | 118.0 | 245.5 | +9.5 | 92% |
| Split | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Season (11) | 111.7 | 116.1 | 227.8 | -4.4 | 45% |
| Season at home (8) | 114.9 | 114.0 | 228.9 | +0.9 | 62% |
| Season away (3) | 103.3 | 121.7 | 225.0 | -18.3 | 0% |
| Last 10 (10) | 114.6 | 115.3 | 229.9 | -0.7 | 50% |
| Last 5 (5) | 109.8 | 106.2 | 216.0 | +3.6 | 80% |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | |||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 109.6 | 118.7 | 228.4 | -9.1 | 21% |
| vs Similar (10) | 111.0 | 110.9 | 221.9 | +0.1 | 40% |
| vs Weaker (6) | 117.2 | 105.8 | 223.0 | +11.3 | 83% |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 59.9 | 58.2 | 118.1 | +1.6 | 53% | - |
| Last 30 at home (16) | 61.7 | 62.4 | 124.1 | -0.7 | 38% | - |
| Last 30 away (14) | 57.8 | 53.5 | 111.3 | +4.3 | 71% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 59.6 | 56.8 | 116.4 | +2.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 57.8 | 53.0 | 110.8 | +4.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger (4) | 57.5 | 53.8 | 111.2 | +3.8 | 75% | - |
| vs Similar (14) | 58.6 | 56.8 | 115.4 | +1.8 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker ◀ (12) | 62.2 | 61.4 | 123.6 | +0.8 | 50% | - |
| 1st half | Scored | Allowed | Total | Margin | Won the half | Over main line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Last 30 (30) | 57.6 | 58.6 | 116.2 | -1.0 | 47% | - |
| Last 30 at home (18) | 58.7 | 56.9 | 115.6 | +1.8 | 50% | - |
| Last 30 away (12) | 55.9 | 61.2 | 117.1 | -5.2 | 42% | - |
| Last 10 (10) | 56.8 | 57.1 | 113.9 | -0.3 | 50% | - |
| Last 5 (5) | 55.0 | 51.2 | 106.2 | +3.8 | 60% | - |
| Last 30 games by opponent strength | ||||||
| vs Stronger ◀ (14) | 55.4 | 61.9 | 117.2 | -6.5 | 29% | - |
| vs Similar (10) | 58.3 | 57.0 | 115.3 | +1.3 | 50% | - |
| vs Weaker (6) | 61.5 | 53.7 | 115.2 | +7.8 | 83% | - |
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| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 55.0 | 31.2 | 54.0% | 62.4 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 31.4 | 10.1 | 35.1% | 30.3 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 24.9 | 19.6 | 77.3% | 19.6 |
| Shot type | Attempts per game | Made per game | Accuracy (made ÷ attempts) | League accuracy | Points per game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 🏀🏀 2-pointers | 47.0 | 26.3 | 54.0% | 52.6 | |
| 🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers | 39.7 | 14.3 | 35.1% | 42.9 | |
| 🏀 Free throws | 18.0 | 14.3 | 77.3% | 14.3 |
Denver Nuggets
| Date | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|
| 31/10/26 | Phoenix Suns v Denver Nuggets | 120-127 |
| 25/03/26 | Phoenix Suns v Denver Nuggets | 123-125 |
| 30/11/25 | Phoenix Suns v Denver Nuggets | 112-130 |
| 26/10/25 | Denver Nuggets v Phoenix Suns | 133-111 |
| 08/03/25 | Denver Nuggets v Phoenix Suns | 149-141 OT |
| 09/02/25 | Phoenix Suns v Denver Nuggets | 105-122 |
| 26/12/24 | Phoenix Suns v Denver Nuggets | 110-100 |
| 24/12/24 | Denver Nuggets v Phoenix Suns | 117-90 |
| 28/03/24 | Denver Nuggets v Phoenix Suns | 97-104 |
| 06/03/24 | Denver Nuggets v Phoenix Suns | 107-117 OT |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 15/11/26 | A | New Orleans Pelicans | 116-108 |
| 12/11/26 | A | Memphis Grizzlies | 123-118 |
| 10/11/26 | A | Houston Rockets | 100-110 |
| 07/11/26 | A | Indiana Pacers | 114-102 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Toronto Raptors | 128-109 |
| 03/11/26 | H | Portland Trail Blazers | 110-118 |
| 31/10/26 | A | Phoenix Suns | 127-120 |
| 29/10/26 | A | New Orleans Pelicans | 104-91 |
| 27/10/26 | H | Golden State Warriors | 114-134 |
| 25/10/26 | H | New Orleans Pelicans | 141-135 OT |
| Date | H/A | Opponent | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/11/26 | H | Charlotte Hornets | 101-96 |
| 11/11/26 | H | Los Angeles Clippers | 133-110 |
| 10/11/26 | H | San Antonio Spurs | 96-122 |
| 08/11/26 | H | Houston Rockets | 102-99 |
| 06/11/26 | H | Orlando Magic | 117-104 |
| 05/11/26 | H | Portland Trail Blazers | 119-132 |
| 03/11/26 | A | Golden State Warriors | 113-116 |
| 31/10/26 | H | Denver Nuggets | 120-127 |
| 27/10/26 | A | Oklahoma City Thunder | 114-125 |
| 25/10/26 | H | Golden State Warriors | 131-122 |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLWW | 64% |
| Home | WLLW | 50% |
| Away | WWLWW | 71% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 11 | 4 | 7 |
| Win % | 64% | 50% | 71% |
| Points / game | 114.6 | 123.2 | 109.7 |
| Allowed / game | 112.8 | 124.0 | 106.4 |
| Point differential | +1.8 | -0.8 | +3.3 |
| Avg total | 227.5 | 247.2 | 216.1 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 27% | 25% | 29% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 100% (1) | - | 100% (1) |
| Overtime % | 9% | 25% | 0% |
| Form | Last 5 | Win % |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | WWLWW | 45% |
| Home | WWLWW | 62% |
| Away | LLL | 0% |
| Stats | Overall | Home | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| Games | 11 | 8 | 3 |
| Win % | 45% | 62% | 0% |
| Points / game | 111.7 | 114.9 | 103.3 |
| Allowed / game | 116.1 | 114.0 | 121.7 |
| Point differential | -4.4 | +0.9 | -18.3 |
| Avg total | 227.8 | 228.9 | 225.0 |
| Over main line | - | - | - |
| Win by 10+ | 18% | 25% | 0% |
| Close games (≤5 pts) won | 67% (3) | 100% (2) | 0% (1) |
| Overtime % | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| # | Team | GP | W | L | Win % | PF/g | PA/g | Diff |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  San Antonio Spurs | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 119.5 | 106.2 | +13.2 |
| 2 |  Los Angeles Lakers | 13 | 11 | 2 | 85% | 122.2 | 114.2 | +7.9 |
| 3 |  Boston Celtics | 12 | 10 | 2 | 83% | 114.2 | 103.1 | +11.2 |
| 4 |  Houston Rockets | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 116.2 | 107.4 | +8.8 |
| 5 |  Philadelphia 76ers | 13 | 10 | 3 | 77% | 111.2 | 109.4 | +1.8 |
| 6 |  Portland Trail Blazers | 12 | 9 | 3 | 75% | 119.6 | 111.8 | +7.8 |
| 7 |  Minnesota Timberwolves | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 118.3 | 106.8 | +11.5 |
| 8 |  Memphis Grizzlies | 13 | 9 | 4 | 69% | 120.6 | 111.7 | +8.9 |
| 9 |  Detroit Pistons | 12 | 8 | 4 | 67% | 115.7 | 110.2 | +5.4 |
| 10 | Denver Nuggets | 11 | 7 | 4 | 64% | 114.6 | 112.8 | +1.8 |
| 11 |  Golden State Warriors | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | 116.7 | 112.4 | +4.3 |
| 12 |  Oklahoma City Thunder | 13 | 8 | 5 | 62% | 111.2 | 107.4 | +3.8 |
| 13 |  Atlanta Hawks | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 118.2 | 116.8 | +1.3 |
| 14 |  Dallas Mavericks | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 113.5 | 113.3 | +0.2 |
| 15 |  Miami Heat | 13 | 7 | 6 | 54% | 118.7 | 119.8 | -1.2 |
| 16 |  New York Knicks | 12 | 6 | 6 | 50% | 109.8 | 103.7 | +6.1 |
| 17 |  Cleveland Cavaliers | 14 | 7 | 7 | 50% | 117.5 | 115.9 | +1.6 |
| 18 | Phoenix Suns | 11 | 5 | 6 | 45% | 111.7 | 116.1 | -4.4 |
| 19 |  Toronto Raptors | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 114.2 | 112.8 | +1.4 |
| 20 |  Orlando Magic | 12 | 5 | 7 | 42% | 108.3 | 112.8 | -4.4 |
| 21 |  Indiana Pacers | 13 | 5 | 8 | 38% | 111.2 | 113.2 | -2.1 |
| 22 |  Charlotte Hornets | 12 | 4 | 8 | 33% | 98.6 | 109.6 | -11.0 |
| 23 |  Washington Wizards | 13 | 4 | 9 | 31% | 110.0 | 115.8 | -5.8 |
| 24 |  New Orleans Pelicans | 14 | 4 | 10 | 29% | 115.9 | 124.9 | -9.1 |
| 25 |  Los Angeles Clippers | 11 | 3 | 8 | 27% | 112.3 | 117.5 | -5.3 |
| 26 |  Brooklyn Nets | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 110.2 | 116.4 | -6.2 |
| 27 |  Chicago Bulls | 12 | 3 | 9 | 25% | 114.6 | 125.9 | -11.3 |
| 28 |  Sacramento Kings | 12 | 1 | 11 | 8% | 108.2 | 120.9 | -12.8 |
| 29 |  Utah Jazz | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 107.5 | 118.6 | -11.2 |
| 30 |  Milwaukee Bucks | 13 | 1 | 12 | 8% | 106.2 | 120.2 | -14.1 |
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