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Miami Heat vs Brooklyn Nets Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 04 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 124-98
34-28 35-26 22-21 33-23
Position#17
Record32-28
FormWWLLW
Points / game120.0
Allowed / game117.0
vs
Position#28
Record15-45
FormLLLLL
Points / game107.0
Allowed / game115.4
USANBA· Kaseya Center
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Miami Heat v Brooklyn Nets
14 Feb 2027
MIA v BKN
upcoming
12 Jan 2027
MIA v BKN
upcoming
05 Mar 2026
MIA126
BKN110
03 Mar 2026
MIA124
BKN98
23 Dec 2024
MIA110
BKN95
16 Nov 2023
MIA122
BKN115
01 Nov 2023
MIA105
BKN109
25 Mar 2023
MIA100
BKN129
08 Jan 2023
MIA101
BKN102
26 Mar 2022
MIA95
BKN110
12 Feb 2022
MIA115
BKN111
18 Apr 2021
MIA109
BKN107
29 Feb 2020
MIA116
BKN113
02 Mar 2019
MIA117
BKN88
20 Nov 2018
MIA92
BKN104
31 Mar 2018
MIA109
BKN110
29 Dec 2017
MIA87
BKN111
30 Jan 2017
MIA104
BKN96
28 Mar 2016
MIA110
BKN99
28 Dec 2015
MIA105
BKN111
11 Mar 2015
MIA104
BKN98
04 Jan 2015
MIA88
BKN84
14 May 2014
MIA96
BKN94
08 May 2014
MIA94
BKN82
06 May 2014
MIA107
BKN86
08 Apr 2014
MIA87
BKN88
12 Mar 2014
MIA95
BKN96
01 Dec 2012
MIA102
BKN89
07 Nov 2012
MIA103
BKN73
06 Mar 2012
MIA108
BKN78
06 Nov 2010
MIA101
BKN89
14 Apr 2010
MIA94
BKN86
14 Nov 2009
MIA81
BKN80
03 Jan 2009
MIA101
BKN96
10 Nov 2008
MIA99
BKN94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Brooklyn Nets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
115-127
115
127
-12
107avg 108
H04/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
96-98
96
98
-2
86avg 108
A07/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
132-101
132
101
+31
132avg 108
A08/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
111-115
111
115
-4
102avg 108
H10/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
123-111
123
111
+12
111avg 108
A12/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
128-97
128
97
+31
128avg 108
A21/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
136-120
136
120
+16
140avg 108
H22/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
117-128
117
128
-11
113avg 108
A25/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
117-124
117
124
-7
110avg 108
A27/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
115-105
115
105
+10
106avg 108
H28/02
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-33
27-34
31-31
34-29
29-15
30-23
15-36
22-24
37-33
37-19
33-23
25-26
32-26
20-35
30-24
29-30
31-25
27-30
38-30
27-26
29-16
28-35
30-24
41-22
39-33
34-35
39-26
24-26
29-30
29-33
35-26
24-39
35-36
22-37
34-26
26-25
32-28
19-24
34-31
30-22
231.6Avg total
119.0Scored
112.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (60)120.0117.0237.0+3.053%
Season at home (29)121.8117.1238.9+4.762%
Season away (31)118.4116.8235.2+1.545%
Last 10 (10)119.0112.6231.6+6.450%
Last 5 (5)122.6114.8237.4+7.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)112.4114.6227.0-2.240%
vs Similar (12)117.9120.1238.0-2.242%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)125.4114.0239.4+11.469%
This opponent (Brooklyn Nets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Brooklyn NetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNets
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#30
W
127-113
127
113
+14
129avg 97
H07/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
123-115
123
115
+8
118avg 97
H10/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
L
110-115
110
115
-5
104avg 97
H12/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
84-112
84
112
-28
68avg 97
A20/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
86-105
86
105
-19
74avg 97
A21/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
104-115
104
115
-11
95avg 97
A22/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
114-123
114
123
-9
106avg 97
H25/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
110-126
110
126
-16
106avg 97
H27/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
111-148
111
148
-37
84avg 97
A28/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
102-106
102
106
-4
88avg 97
H01/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
46-20
34-27
21-35
26-31
27-31
33-23
29-35
34-26
31-18
33-35
26-31
20-31
16-34
32-36
19-32
17-10
23-21
10-29
34-27
19-28
30-32
26-28
31-29
17-26
29-36
35-40
27-23
23-24
22-36
34-35
28-33
26-22
32-35
25-31
26-43
28-39
24-29
28-17
23-28
27-32
224.9Avg total
107.1Scored
117.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (60)107.0115.4222.4-8.525%
Season at home (30)110.6115.0225.7-4.427%
Season away (30)103.3115.8219.1-12.623%
Last 10 (10)107.1117.8224.9-10.720%
Last 5 (5)108.2123.6231.8-15.40%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)103.4118.4221.8-15.012%
vs Similar (5)108.6109.8218.4-1.240%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: -3.2-3.2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: -5.2-5.2Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -3.2-3.2
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: -3.2-3.2Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +4.2+4.2Q3: -5.2-5.2Q4Q4: +1.3+1.3Q4: -3.2-3.2
Miami HeatBrooklyn Nets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
50-67
50
67
-17
H04/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
W
59-38
59
38
+21
A07/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
W
74-52
74
52
+22
A08/02
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
L
52-61
52
61
-9
H10/02
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A12/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A21/02
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
73-68
73
68
+5
H22/02
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
58-63
58
63
-5
A25/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#15
L
57-73
57
73
-16
A27/02
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H28/02
NBA
116.9Avg total
58.9Scored
58.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.357.6118.9+3.757%-
Last 30 at home (14)61.158.4119.5+2.850%-
Last 30 away (16)61.456.9118.4+4.562%-
Last 10 (10)58.958.0116.9+0.950%-
Last 5 (5)59.261.4120.6-2.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)61.053.0114.0+8.080%-
vs Similar (12)59.059.8118.8-0.833%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)63.557.3120.8+6.269%-
This opponent (Brooklyn Nets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Brooklyn NetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Washington Wizards
#30
W
80-47
80
47
+33
H07/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#22
W
60-54
60
54
+6
H10/02
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
64-53
64
53
+11
H12/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
L
48-70
48
70
-22
A20/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
33-50
33
50
-17
A21/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
56-60
56
60
-4
A22/02
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
64-76
64
76
-12
H25/02
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
56-71
56
71
-15
H27/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#5
L
57-66
57
66
-9
A28/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#9
W
52-46
52
46
+6
H01/03
NBA
116.3Avg total
57.0Scored
59.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)51.559.0110.5-7.530%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.256.6112.9-0.450%-
Last 30 away (16)47.461.1108.5-13.812%-
Last 10 (10)57.059.3116.3-2.340%-
Last 5 (5)57.063.8120.8-6.820%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (25)49.959.8109.6-9.924%-
vs Similar (5)59.655.4115.0+4.260%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 119.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.2 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.028.6
54.0%
54.8%57.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.114.1
35.2%
35.8%42.3
🏀 Free throws25.619.5
76.2%
78.1%19.5
They take 93.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Brooklyn Netstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Brooklyn Nets: 107.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.527.0
54.5%
54.8%54.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.212.3
34.9%
35.8%36.9
🏀 Free throws22.016.2
73.6%
78.1%16.2
They take 84.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WLLWWWLWLL
Brooklyn Nets
LLLLLLLLWW
#17
League position
#28
+6.2
Net rating
-10.6
114.7
Offensive rating
106.6
108.5
Defensive rating
117.2
53.4%
Effective FG%
53.7%
52.3%
Opp. effective FG%
58.3%
12.5%
Turnover %
14.5%
27.9%
Off. rebound %
21.3%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.26
35.2%
3-point %
34.9%
64.9%
Assist %
69.5%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence114.7 · 106.6Defence108.5 · 117.2Shooting53.4% · 53.7%3-point %35.2% · 34.9%Ball care12.5% · 14.5%Off. rebounds27.9% · 21.3%Free throws0.27 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)50% · 20%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Brooklyn Nets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Miami Heat wins
5
Brooklyn Nets wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/02/26HHouston Rockets115-105
27/02/26APhiladelphia 76ers117-124
25/02/26AMilwaukee Bucks117-128
22/02/26HMemphis Grizzlies136-120
21/02/26AAtlanta Hawks128-97
12/02/26ANew Orleans Pelicans123-111
10/02/26HUtah Jazz111-115
08/02/26AWashington Wizards132-101
07/02/26ABoston Celtics96-98
04/02/26HAtlanta Hawks115-127
DateH/AOpponentScore
01/03/26HCleveland Cavaliers102-106
28/02/26ABoston Celtics111-148
27/02/26HSan Antonio Spurs110-126
25/02/26HDallas Mavericks114-123
22/02/26AAtlanta Hawks104-115
21/02/26AOklahoma City Thunder86-105
20/02/26ACleveland Cavaliers84-112
12/02/26HIndiana Pacers110-115
10/02/26HChicago Bulls123-115
07/02/26HWashington Wizards127-113

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW53%
HomeWLLWW62%
AwayWWWLL45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games602931
Win %53%62%45%
Points / game120.0121.8118.4
Allowed / game117.0117.1116.8
Point differential+3.0+4.7+1.5
Avg total237.0238.9235.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%34%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (14)67% (9)40% (5)
Overtime %2%3%0%
Brooklyn Nets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLL25%
HomeWLLLL27%
AwayLLLLL23%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games603030
Win %25%27%23%
Points / game107.0110.6103.3
Allowed / game115.4115.0115.8
Point differential-8.5-4.4-12.6
Avg total222.4225.7219.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%20%13%
Close games (≤5 pts) won10% (10)17% (6)0% (4)
Overtime %3%7%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder60461477%119.0108.1+10.9
2 Detroit Pistons60451575%117.2109.5+7.7
3 San Antonio Spurs58411771%117.8111.7+6.1
4 Boston Celtics61412067%114.9107.0+7.9
5 Houston Rockets60382263%114.7109.4+5.3
6 New York Knicks59372263%117.0111.2+5.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves61382362%119.1114.6+4.6
8 Cleveland Cavaliers63392462%119.1114.9+4.2
9 Denver Nuggets62382461%120.5116.1+4.4
10 Los Angeles Lakers59362361%115.9115.2+0.7
11 Toronto Raptors59352459%114.2111.9+2.3
12 Phoenix Suns59342558%112.5110.9+1.6
13 Philadelphia 76ers60332755%116.4115.9+0.5
14 Orlando Magic58312753%114.6114.2+0.5
15 Miami Heat60322853%120.0117.0+3.0
16 Golden State Warriors61313051%115.3114.1+1.3
17 Charlotte Hornets62313150%116.1112.7+3.4
18 Atlanta Hawks62313150%117.4117.4+0.0
19 Los Angeles Clippers60293148%112.1112.1+0.0
20 Portland Trail Blazers62293347%115.2118.4-3.1
21 Milwaukee Bucks60263443%111.3115.5-4.2
22 Chicago Bulls61253641%115.8120.1-4.3
23 Memphis Grizzlies59233639%115.7117.7-2.0
24 Dallas Mavericks61214034%113.5117.7-4.1
25 New Orleans Pelicans62194331%115.1120.4-5.3
26 Utah Jazz61184330%117.9125.8-7.9
27 Washington Wizards61164526%112.2123.0-10.8
28 Brooklyn Nets60154525%107.0115.4-8.5
29 Indiana Pacers61154625%111.4119.6-8.2
30 Sacramento Kings62144823%110.3121.2-10.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat34352233124
Brooklyn Nets2826212398
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