PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 30 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 113-107
25-26 31-30 26-19 31-32
Position#3
Record32-15
FormWWWLW
Points / game115.1
Allowed / game111.0
vs
Position#8
Record31-13
FormWWWLW
Points / game124.0
Allowed / game119.9
USANBA· Ball Arena (Denver)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Milwaukee Bucks
23 Jan 2027
DEN v MIL
upcoming
11 Jan 2026
DEN108
MIL104
26 Mar 2025
DEN127
MIL117
29 Jan 2024
DEN113
MIL107
25 Mar 2023
DEN129
MIL106
26 Nov 2021
DEN109
MIL120
08 Feb 2021
DEN112
MIL125
09 Mar 2020
DEN109
MIL95
11 Nov 2018
DEN114
MIL121
01 Apr 2018
DEN128
MIL125
03 Feb 2017
DEN121
MIL117
11 Nov 2015
DEN103
MIL102
03 Mar 2015
DEN106
MIL95
05 Feb 2014
DEN110
MIL100
05 Feb 2013
DEN112
MIL104
02 Jan 2012
DEN91
MIL86
01 Dec 2010
DEN105
MIL94
20 Mar 2010
DEN97
MIL102
18 Nov 2008
DEN114
MIL105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
131-114
131
114
+17
136avg 110
H08/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
L
111-124
111
124
-13
103avg 110
A11/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
125-113
125
113
+12
125avg 110
H13/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
117-109
117
109
+8
124avg 110
H14/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
L
121-126
121
126
-5
113avg 110
A17/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
102-100
102
100
+2
98avg 110
A20/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
113-104
113
104
+9
110avg 110
A21/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
114-109
114
109
+5
106avg 110
A24/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
84-122
84
122
-38
72avg 110
A26/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
W
111-105
111
105
+6
102avg 110
H27/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-29
34-28
43-28
23-29
24-35
29-36
25-28
33-25
37-25
29-26
34-29
25-33
28-28
32-29
29-27
28-25
38-36
40-42
26-21
17-27
31-32
24-29
26-21
21-18
33-24
29-28
27-26
24-26
28-29
26-33
39-19
21-28
21-33
20-29
25-36
18-24
31-27
33-35
22-26
25-17
225.5Avg total
112.9Scored
112.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (47)115.1111.0226.1+4.168%
Season at home (22)120.1110.4230.5+9.882%
Season away (25)110.6111.6222.2-0.956%
Last 10 (10)112.9112.6225.5+0.370%
Last 5 (5)104.8108.0212.8-3.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)102.0100.0202.0+2.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (18)115.2115.3230.4-0.156%
vs Weaker (11)119.3107.7227.0+11.591%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#23
L
116-132
116
132
-16
106avg 115
H09/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
135-102
135
102
+33
141avg 115
H12/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
W
129-118
129
118
+11
130avg 115
H14/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
143-142 OT
143
142
+1
138avg 115
H15/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
L
95-135
95
135
-40
74avg 115
A18/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
141-135
141
135
+6
140avg 115
A20/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
122-113
122
113
+9
113avg 115
A23/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
126-116
126
116
+10
120avg 115
H25/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
L
100-112
100
112
-12
90avg 115
H27/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
141-117
141
117
+24
139avg 115
H28/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-41
23-36
44-23
26-32
41-23
34-15
36-32
24-32
33-24
21-32
29-25
46-37
32-37
36-29
27-25
33-37
22-32
19-34
26-42
28-27
34-38
36-29
33-31
38-37
30-30
28-26
31-29
33-28
32-28
29-23
32-28
33-37
28-30
29-24
20-26
23-32
36-32
39-31
37-24
29-30
247.0Avg total
124.8Scored
122.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (44)124.0119.9243.9+4.270%
Season at home (24)125.0118.7243.7+6.483%
Season away (20)122.8121.3244.2+1.555%
Last 10 (10)124.8122.2247.0+2.670%
Last 5 (5)126.0118.6244.6+7.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)125.5110.5236.0+15.050%
vs Similar ◀ (18)123.3122.2245.4+1.161%
vs Weaker (10)129.7120.7250.4+9.090%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +3.5+3.5Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: -1.6-1.6
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +0.4+0.4Q1: -0.4-0.4Q2Q2: -1.9-1.9Q2: +1.5+1.5Q3Q3: +3.5+3.5Q3: +3.0+3.0Q4Q4: -1.7-1.7Q4: -1.6-1.6
Denver NuggetsMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
65-57
65
57
+8
H08/01
NBA
Utah Jazz
#23
L
53-71
53
71
-18
A11/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
66-51
66
51
+15
H13/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
60-57
60
57
+3
H14/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
D
78-78
78
78
+0
A17/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
55-61
55
61
-6
A20/01
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
62-52
62
52
+10
A21/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
54-62
54
62
-8
A24/01
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
41-62
41
62
-21
A26/01
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#13
W
64-62
64
62
+2
H27/01
NBA
121.1Avg total
59.8Scored
61.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.357.3116.6+2.157%-
Last 30 at home (14)59.853.5113.3+6.371%-
Last 30 away (16)58.960.6119.5-1.644%-
Last 10 (10)59.861.3121.1-1.550%-
Last 5 (5)55.259.8115.0-4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)55.061.0116.0-6.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)60.259.2119.4+1.156%-
vs Weaker (11)58.353.8112.1+4.564%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Utah Jazz
#23
L
46-77
46
77
-31
H09/01
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
W
75-38
75
38
+37
H12/01
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#15
L
54-56
54
56
-2
H14/01
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#11
W
68-66
68
66
+2
H15/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
L
41-66
41
66
-25
A18/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
70-67
70
67
+3
A20/01
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#30
W
58-56
58
56
+2
A23/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
61-51
61
51
+10
H25/01
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
57-54
57
54
+3
H27/01
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#10
W
75-63
75
63
+12
H28/01
NBA
119.9Avg total
60.5Scored
59.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.560.0121.6+1.567%-
Last 30 at home (17)64.959.5124.5+5.476%-
Last 30 away (13)57.160.7117.8-3.654%-
Last 10 (10)60.559.4119.9+1.170%-
Last 5 (5)64.258.2122.4+6.0100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)64.052.5116.5+11.550%-
vs Similar ◀ (18)60.159.5119.6+0.667%-
vs Weaker (10)63.662.5126.1+1.170%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀57%
🏀🏀🏀28%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers64.2 pts a game · 57% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.2 pts a game · 28% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.332.1
59.1%
54.4%64.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.110.4
35.7%
36.3%31.2
🏀 Free throws23.117.5
75.8%
78.2%17.5
They take 83.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 124.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers61.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.8 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.130.5
56.4%
54.4%61.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.314.6
39.1%
36.3%43.8
🏀 Free throws25.420.0
78.7%
78.2%20.0
They take 91.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WLWWWLWWLW
Milwaukee Bucks
WLWWWLWWWL
#3
League position
#8
+0.3
Net rating
+2.5
117.1
Offensive rating
119.8
116.8
Defensive rating
117.3
57.2%
Effective FG%
57.3%
55.3%
Opp. effective FG%
55.6%
13.7%
Turnover %
10.6%
26.8%
Off. rebound %
21.9%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.28
35.7%
3-point %
39.1%
61.4%
Assist %
61.9%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence117.1 · 119.8Defence116.8 · 117.3Shooting57.2% · 57.3%3-point %35.7% · 39.1%Ball care13.7% · 10.6%Off. rebounds26.8% · 21.9%Free throws0.28 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Denver Nuggets wins
5
Milwaukee Bucks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
27/01/24HPhiladelphia 76ers111-105
26/01/24ANew York Knicks84-122
24/01/24AIndiana Pacers114-109
21/01/24AWashington Wizards113-104
20/01/24ABoston Celtics102-100
17/01/24APhiladelphia 76ers121-126
14/01/24HIndiana Pacers117-109
13/01/24HNew Orleans Pelicans125-113
11/01/24AUtah Jazz111-124
08/01/24HDetroit Pistons131-114
DateH/AOpponentScore
28/01/24HNew Orleans Pelicans141-117
27/01/24HCleveland Cavaliers100-112
25/01/24HCleveland Cavaliers126-116
23/01/24ADetroit Pistons122-113
20/01/24ADetroit Pistons141-135
18/01/24ACleveland Cavaliers95-135
15/01/24HSacramento Kings143-142 OT
14/01/24HGolden State Warriors129-118
12/01/24HBoston Celtics135-102
09/01/24HUtah Jazz116-132

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW68%
HomeLWWWW82%
AwayLWWWL56%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games472225
Win %68%82%56%
Points / game115.1120.1110.6
Allowed / game111.0110.4111.6
Point differential+4.1+9.8-0.9
Avg total226.1230.5222.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+28%55%4%
Close games (≤5 pts) won57% (14)50% (4)60% (10)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW70%
HomeWWWLW83%
AwayWLLWW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games442420
Win %70%83%55%
Points / game124.0125.0122.8
Allowed / game119.9118.7121.3
Point differential+4.2+6.4+1.5
Avg total243.9243.7244.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%33%25%
Close games (≤5 pts) won75% (12)100% (7)40% (5)
Overtime %7%8%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics46361078%120.4110.5+9.9
2 Milwaukee Bucks44311370%124.0119.9+4.2
3 Minnesota Timberwolves47331470%112.9107.4+5.5
4 Oklahoma City Thunder47321568%120.8112.9+7.9
5 Denver Nuggets47321568%115.1111.0+4.1
6 Los Angeles Clippers45301567%117.9111.8+6.1
7 Philadelphia 76ers44291566%119.5112.0+7.5
8 New York Knicks46301665%115.2108.6+6.5
9 Cleveland Cavaliers44281664%114.1109.8+4.3
10 Sacramento Kings44271761%118.4117.2+1.2
11 Phoenix Suns46271959%116.7114.4+2.3
12 New Orleans Pelicans45252056%117.0112.6+4.4
13 Indiana Pacers45252056%124.8123.1+1.7
14 Dallas Mavericks47262155%118.9118.6+0.3
15 Orlando Magic47242351%111.7111.2+0.5
16 Miami Heat47242351%110.4111.7-1.3
17 Utah Jazz48242450%117.8119.9-2.1
18 Houston Rockets46222448%113.7112.5+1.2
19 Los Angeles Lakers46222448%115.9118.1-2.2
20 Chicago Bulls47222547%110.9112.3-1.4
21 Golden State Warriors43192444%118.6119.0-0.5
22 Brooklyn Nets46192741%114.0114.9-0.8
23 Atlanta Hawks46192741%120.2123.3-3.1
24 Memphis Grizzlies47182938%107.5112.6-5.1
25 Toronto Raptors46163035%114.4116.8-2.4
26 Portland Trail Blazers46133328%107.8117.0-9.2
27 Charlotte Hornets45103522%108.6120.3-11.8
28 San Antonio Spurs47103721%112.9121.4-8.5
29 Washington Wizards4693720%115.2124.0-8.8
30 Detroit Pistons4664013%112.4122.1-9.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets25312631113
Milwaukee Bucks26301932107
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.