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Denver Nuggets vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 27 Mar 2025
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 127-117
38-27 29-37 33-28 27-25
Position#9
Record45-28
FormWLLWL
Points / game120.7
Allowed / game117.0
vs
Position#13
Record38-31
FormLLWWL
Points / game114.5
Allowed / game112.3
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Milwaukee Bucks
23 Jan 2027
DEN v MIL
upcoming
11 Jan 2026
DEN108
MIL104
26 Mar 2025
DEN127
MIL117
29 Jan 2024
DEN113
MIL107
25 Mar 2023
DEN129
MIL106
26 Nov 2021
DEN109
MIL120
08 Feb 2021
DEN112
MIL125
09 Mar 2020
DEN109
MIL95
11 Nov 2018
DEN114
MIL121
01 Apr 2018
DEN128
MIL125
03 Feb 2017
DEN121
MIL117
11 Nov 2015
DEN103
MIL102
03 Mar 2015
DEN106
MIL95
05 Feb 2014
DEN110
MIL100
05 Feb 2013
DEN112
MIL104
02 Jan 2012
DEN91
MIL86
01 Dec 2010
DEN105
MIL94
20 Mar 2010
DEN97
MIL102
18 Nov 2008
DEN114
MIL105
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
103-127
103
127
-24
87avg 113
A09/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
140-127
140
127
+13
144avg 113
A11/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
95-115
95
115
-20
80avg 113
H13/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
131-126
131
126
+5
126avg 113
H15/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
L
123-126
123
126
-3
124avg 113
H16/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
114-105
114
105
+9
114avg 113
A18/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
108-120
108
120
-12
100avg 113
A20/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
L
109-128
109
128
-19
102avg 113
A22/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
116-111
116
111
+5
111avg 113
A23/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
119-129
119
129
-10
116avg 113
H25/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-28
31-33
23-25
20-41
34-32
33-41
34-26
39-28
26-34
22-23
27-32
20-26
32-40
39-27
31-32
29-27
44-30
28-33
23-32
28-31
29-22
33-28
27-27
25-28
29-46
30-27
18-32
31-15
30-30
29-24
23-34
27-40
27-27
30-30
39-22
20-32
35-27
30-38
30-30
24-34
237.2Avg total
115.8Scored
121.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (73)120.7117.0237.7+3.762%
Season at home (35)122.7117.2239.9+5.566%
Season away (38)118.8116.8235.6+2.058%
Last 10 (10)115.8121.4237.2-5.640%
Last 5 (5)113.2118.6231.8-5.440%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)115.3121.3236.7-6.033%
vs Similar ◀ (14)115.1116.7231.8-1.657%
vs Weaker (13)127.9121.6249.5+6.369%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#15
L
109-111
109
111
-2
101avg 106
H09/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
100-112
100
112
-12
87avg 106
H10/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
114-115
114
115
-1
115avg 106
A11/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
126-106
126
106
+20
125avg 106
H13/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
126-119
126
119
+7
130avg 106
H16/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
105-121
105
121
-16
89avg 106
H17/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
93-104
93
104
-11
77avg 106
A19/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
118-89
118
89
+29
110avg 106
A21/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
114-108
114
108
+6
106avg 106
A23/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
L
106-108
106
108
-2
94avg 106
A25/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-34
27-26
29-30
33-21
32-34
20-28
25-22
23-28
28-32
27-25
33-31
26-27
33-29
38-34
31-19
24-24
38-30
27-30
35-22
26-37
26-24
15-29
33-39
31-29
27-32
17-26
32-20
17-26
34-19
23-27
34-23
27-20
17-25
32-36
37-28
28-19
30-25
28-29
20-27
28-27
220.4Avg total
111.1Scored
109.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (69)114.5112.3226.7+2.255%
Season at home (34)117.7111.6229.3+6.165%
Season away (35)111.3112.9224.2-1.546%
Last 10 (10)111.1109.3220.4+1.840%
Last 5 (5)107.2106.0213.2+1.240%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)100.3119.3219.7-19.00%
vs Similar ◀ (20)116.8111.4228.2+5.360%
vs Weaker (7)116.0116.7232.7-0.757%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: +4.8+4.8Q4Q4: -3.9-3.9Q4: +0.5+0.5
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -0.1-0.1Q1: +0.1+0.1Q2Q2: +0.1+0.1Q2: -3.6-3.6Q3Q3: -1.7-1.7Q3: +4.8+4.8Q4Q4: -3.9-3.9Q4: +0.5+0.5
Denver NuggetsMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
60-61
60
61
-1
A09/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
67-73
67
73
-6
A11/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
48-57
48
57
-9
H13/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
71-67
71
67
+4
H15/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
72-63
72
63
+9
H16/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
62-50
62
50
+12
A18/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
59-73
59
73
-14
A20/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#21
W
59-54
59
54
+5
A22/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
D
57-57
57
57
+0
A23/03
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
D
65-65
65
65
+0
H25/03
NBA
124.0Avg total
62.0Scored
62.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)62.959.7122.6+3.260%-
Last 30 at home (14)65.258.9124.1+6.364%-
Last 30 away (16)60.860.4121.2+0.456%-
Last 10 (10)62.062.0124.0+0.040%-
Last 5 (5)60.459.8120.2+0.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)58.365.0123.3-6.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)60.160.0120.1+0.150%-
vs Weaker (13)66.858.2125.0+8.785%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Orlando Magic
#15
L
47-60
47
60
-13
H09/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#2
L
52-62
52
62
-10
H10/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
L
55-57
55
57
-2
A11/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
71-63
71
63
+8
H13/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#5
W
65-60
65
60
+5
H16/03
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
41-53
41
53
-12
H17/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
44-58
44
58
-14
A19/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
57-46
57
46
+11
A21/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#16
L
49-61
49
61
-12
A23/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
58-54
58
54
+4
A25/03
NBA
111.3Avg total
53.9Scored
57.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.758.8117.5-0.157%-
Last 30 at home (13)58.458.1116.5+0.354%-
Last 30 away (17)58.959.3118.2-0.459%-
Last 10 (10)53.957.4111.3-3.540%-
Last 5 (5)49.854.4104.2-4.640%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (3)45.764.3110.0-18.70%-
vs Similar ◀ (20)59.257.4116.7+1.960%-
vs Weaker (7)62.760.3123.0+2.471%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 115.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.6 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.7 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.331.3
55.6%
54.3%62.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.811.9
36.3%
35.9%35.7
🏀 Free throws23.417.5
74.8%
77.8%17.5
They take 89.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 111.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.0 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.1 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.426.5
54.8%
54.3%53.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.412.7
36.9%
35.9%38.1
🏀 Free throws26.220.0
76.3%
77.8%20.0
They take 82.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 27 Mar 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWLLWLWLWL
Milwaukee Bucks
LWWLLWWLLL
#9
League position
#13
-5.5
Net rating
+1.8
114.7
Offensive rating
113.8
120.2
Defensive rating
112.0
55.2%
Effective FG%
55.0%
56.6%
Opp. effective FG%
54.5%
13.6%
Turnover %
11.7%
28.7%
Off. rebound %
19.6%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.32
36.3%
3-point %
36.9%
66.4%
Assist %
59.7%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
40%

Profile

Offence114.7 · 113.8Defence120.2 · 112.0Shooting55.2% · 55.0%3-point %36.3% · 36.9%Ball care13.6% · 11.7%Off. rebounds28.7% · 19.6%Free throws0.26 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)40% · 40%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Denver Nuggets wins
5
Milwaukee Bucks wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/03/25HChicago Bulls119-129
23/03/25AHouston Rockets116-111
22/03/25APortland Trail Blazers109-128
20/03/25ALos Angeles Lakers108-120
18/03/25AGolden State Warriors114-105
16/03/25HWashington Wizards123-126
15/03/25HLos Angeles Lakers131-126
13/03/25HMinnesota Timberwolves95-115
11/03/25AOklahoma City Thunder140-127
09/03/25AOklahoma City Thunder103-127
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/03/25APhoenix Suns106-108
23/03/25ASacramento Kings114-108
21/03/25ALos Angeles Lakers118-89
19/03/25AGolden State Warriors93-104
17/03/25HOklahoma City Thunder105-121
16/03/25HIndiana Pacers126-119
13/03/25HLos Angeles Lakers126-106
11/03/25AIndiana Pacers114-115
10/03/25HCleveland Cavaliers100-112
09/03/25HOrlando Magic109-111

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWL62%
HomeWLWLL66%
AwayWWLLW58%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games733538
Win %62%66%58%
Points / game120.7122.7118.8
Allowed / game117.0117.2116.8
Point differential+3.7+5.5+2.0
Avg total237.7239.9235.6
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%43%34%
Close games (≤5 pts) won63% (19)56% (9)70% (10)
Overtime %7%3%11%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL55%
HomeLLWWL65%
AwayLLWWL46%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games693435
Win %55%65%46%
Points / game114.5117.7111.3
Allowed / game112.3111.6112.9
Point differential+2.2+6.1-1.5
Avg total226.7229.3224.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%41%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won35% (17)20% (5)42% (12)
Overtime %1%3%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder70581283%120.0107.1+12.9
2 Cleveland Cavaliers72581481%122.2111.8+10.4
3 Boston Celtics72531974%116.6107.8+8.8
4 Houston Rockets71462565%114.2109.4+4.8
5 New York Knicks71452663%116.7112.5+4.3
6 Denver Nuggets73452862%120.7117.0+3.7
7 Memphis Grizzlies72442861%122.4116.8+5.6
8 Los Angeles Lakers72442861%112.8112.1+0.7
9 Indiana Pacers72423058%116.6115.2+1.4
10 Golden State Warriors71413058%113.3111.2+2.1
11 Los Angeles Clippers72413157%112.0108.5+3.4
12 Minnesota Timberwolves73413256%113.5109.3+4.2
13 Detroit Pistons73413256%115.4112.9+2.6
14 Milwaukee Bucks69383155%114.5112.3+2.2
15 Sacramento Kings72353749%116.0115.8+0.2
16 Dallas Mavericks72353749%115.2115.4-0.1
17 Orlando Magic72353749%105.0106.0-1.0
18 Phoenix Suns72353749%114.6115.6-1.0
19 Atlanta Hawks70343649%117.9119.8-1.8
20 Chicago Bulls72324044%117.3119.7-2.4
21 Portland Trail Blazers73324144%111.0114.2-3.3
22 San Antonio Spurs71314044%114.3116.2-1.9
23 Miami Heat72314143%109.2110.3-1.1
24 Toronto Raptors73264736%110.5115.3-4.8
25 Philadelphia 76ers73235032%110.0115.7-5.6
26 Brooklyn Nets73235032%105.0111.6-6.6
27 New Orleans Pelicans73205327%110.6119.2-8.6
28 Charlotte Hornets72185425%105.8114.0-8.2
29 Washington Wizards72165622%108.7120.4-11.7
30 Utah Jazz73165722%111.9120.1-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets38293327127
Milwaukee Bucks27372825117
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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