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Illawarra Hawks vs Sydney Prediction & Stats

Date: Fri 04 Dec 2026
Tip-off: 08:30
Scheduled
Position#9
Record5-10
FormWWLWL
Points / game97.5
Allowed / game104.7
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.4/10
Below normal
4.8/10
Around normal
Position#1
Record9-4
FormWWWLW
Points / game98.6
Allowed / game89.7
AustraliaNBLRound 11· WIN Entertainment Centre
Other2026-27
Meetings · Illawarra Hawks v Sydney
04 Dec 2026
ILLA v SYDN
upcoming
22 Oct 2026
ILLA82
SYDN108
13 Feb 2026
ILLA94
SYDN120
16 Nov 2025
ILLA71
SYDN98
07 Feb 2025
ILLA95
SYDN75
16 Nov 2024
ILLA86
SYDN79
03 Nov 2023
ILLA83
SYDN103
30 Sep 2023
ILLA81
SYDN96
16 Dec 2022
ILLA79
SYDN86
01 Oct 2022
ILLA97
SYDN106
29 Apr 2022
ILLA79
SYDN89
14 Apr 2022
ILLA102
SYDN107
13 Jan 2022
ILLA97
SYDN89
03 Jun 2021
ILLA73
SYDN79
24 Apr 2021
ILLA75
SYDN79
24 Jan 2020
ILLA79
SYDN102
31 Dec 2019
ILLA85
SYDN80
05 Jan 2019
ILLA78
SYDN71
16 Dec 2018
ILLA68
SYDN83
16 Nov 2017
ILLA97
SYDN93
29 Oct 2017
ILLA94
SYDN99
05 Dec 2016
ILLA93
SYDN99
13 Oct 2016
ILLA84
SYDN88
18 Dec 2015
ILLA102
SYDN83
25 Nov 2015
ILLA96
SYDN90
13 Dec 2014
ILLA82
SYDN77
07 Nov 2014
ILLA53
SYDN82
21 Mar 2014
ILLA100
SYDN87
07 Dec 2013
ILLA73
SYDN69
15 Mar 2013
ILLA81
SYDN74
05 Oct 2012
ILLA79
SYDN76
09 Mar 2012
ILLA81
SYDN92
31 Dec 2011
ILLA83
SYDN86
27 Mar 2011
ILLA86
SYDN70
26 Nov 2010
ILLA89
SYDN72
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Illawarra Hawks win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Sydney win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Illawarra HawksAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHawks
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
112-122
112
122
-10
102avg 90
H09/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
100-110
100
110
-10
94avg 90
H11/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
91-89
91
89
+2
80avg 90
A18/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
82-108
82
108
-26
70avg 90
H22/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
81-98
81
98
-17
61avg 90
H24/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
105-98
105
98
+7
104avg 90
A31/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
107-95
107
95
+12
no box
A05/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
78-106
78
106
-28
no box
A07/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
120-110
120
110
+10
no box
A11/11
NBL
Perth
#6
L
100-111 OT
100
111
-11
no box
A14/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-32
25-35
26-24
39-31
27-28
23-29
27-29
23-24
21-27
35-16
22-22
13-24
19-20
17-28
16-34
30-26
16-25
19-30
27-14
19-29
24-19
27-25
27-25
27-29
32-35
29-27
26-20
20-13
21-22
16-27
23-36
18-21
28-23
43-31
24-27
25-29
30-26
18-24
18-19
26-23
202.3Avg total
97.6Scored
104.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (15)97.5104.7202.2-7.333%
Season at home (5)97.8106.0203.8-8.220%
Season away (10)97.3104.1201.4-6.840%
Last 10 (10)97.6104.7202.3-7.140%
Last 5 (5)102.0104.0206.0-2.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)97.9106.7204.6-8.832%
vs Similar (9)96.796.0192.7+0.744%
vs Weaker (2)104.576.5181.0+28.0100%
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SydneyAustraliaLast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormSydney
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
L
78-84
78
84
-6
75avg 98
H11/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
L
101-102
101
102
-1
92avg 98
H14/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
102-81
102
81
+21
96avg 98
H17/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
108-82
108
82
+26
109avg 98
A22/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
95-105
95
105
-10
96avg 98
A25/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
99-91
99
91
+8
100avg 98
A28/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
71-68
71
68
+3
57avg 98
A30/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
110-99
110
99
+11
no box
H08/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
82-84
82
84
-2
no box
A13/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
111-102 OT
111
102
+9
no box
H15/11
NBL
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-18
26-23
12-20
22-23
29-31
32-20
12-24
28-27
31-21
21-22
24-20
26-18
20-19
28-17
34-16
26-30
31-32
20-24
13-21
31-28
33-17
26-25
21-28
19-21
19-19
18-12
13-24
21-13
28-38
26-13
29-19
27-29
29-12
24-20
14-31
15-21
21-20
24-25
20-19
22-23
185.5Avg total
95.7Scored
89.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)98.689.7188.3+8.969%
Season at home (8)103.492.0195.4+11.475%
Season away (5)91.086.0177.0+5.060%
Last 10 (10)95.789.8185.5+5.960%
Last 5 (5)94.688.8183.4+5.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)95.0105.0200.0-10.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)102.689.4192.0+13.283%
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +4.4+4.4Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -3.0-3.0Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +0.4+0.4
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: -1.7-1.7Q1: +3.2+3.2Q2Q2: -2.0-2.0Q2: +4.4+4.4Q3Q3: -1.4-1.4Q3: -3.0-3.0Q4Q4: -0.9-0.9Q4: +0.4+0.4
Illawarra HawksSydney
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Illawarra HawksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
L
47-67
47
67
-20
H09/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
50-57
50
57
-7
H11/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
W
56-43
56
43
+13
A18/10
NBL
Sydney
#1
L
36-48
36
48
-12
H22/10
NBL
Brisbane Bullets
#7
L
35-55
35
55
-20
H24/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A31/10
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
L
61-62
61
62
-1
A05/11
NBL
Adelaide
#5
L
37-49
37
49
-12
A07/11
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
71-54
71
54
+17
A11/11
NBL
Perth
#6
L
48-50
48
50
-2
A14/11
NBL
102.1Avg total
49.2Scored
52.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)48.751.099.7-2.333%-
Last 30 at home (11)46.950.597.5-3.627%-
Last 30 away (19)49.751.2100.9-1.537%-
Last 10 (10)49.252.9102.1-3.730%-
Last 5 (5)53.651.8105.4+1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)48.252.3100.5-4.132%-
vs Similar (9)49.450.6100.0-1.133%-
vs Weaker (2)50.040.090.0+10.050%-
This opponent (Sydney) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
SydneyLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Adelaide
#5
W
44-41
44
41
+3
H11/10
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
W
61-51
61
51
+10
H14/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
52-43
52
43
+9
H17/10
NBL
Illawarra Hawks
#9
W
48-36
48
36
+12
A22/10
NBL
Melbourne United
#3
L
51-56
51
56
-5
A25/10
NBL
Perth
#6
W
59-42
59
42
+17
A28/10
NBL
Tasmania JackJumpers
#2
W
37-31
37
31
+6
A30/10
NBL
South East Melbourne
#10
W
54-51
54
51
+3
H08/11
NBL
Cairns Taipans
#4
W
53-32
53
32
+21
A13/11
NBL
New Zealand Breakers
#8
D
45-45
45
45
+0
H15/11
NBL
93.2Avg total
50.4Scored
42.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.945.798.6+7.277%-
Last 30 at home (18)54.245.8100.0+8.383%-
Last 30 away (12)51.045.596.5+5.567%-
Last 10 (10)50.442.893.2+7.680%-
Last 5 (5)49.640.289.8+9.480%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)51.056.0107.0-5.00%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)53.045.398.3+7.679%-
This opponent (Illawarra Hawks) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Illawarra Hawkstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Illawarra Hawks: 96.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws12.1 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers45.125.6
56.8%
56.4%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.511.2
35.6%
34.2%33.6
🏀 Free throws16.512.1
73.3%
74.0%12.1
They take 76.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Sydneytheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Sydney: 97.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 93.6 points a game
50%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers44.125.5
57.8%
56.4%51.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.810.2
35.4%
34.2%30.6
🏀 Free throws20.515.7
76.6%
74.0%15.7
They take 72.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 04 Dec 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Illawarra Hawks
LWLWWLLWLL
Sydney
WLWWWLWWLL
#9
League position
#1
-8.7
Net rating
+9.9
100.8
Offensive rating
105.0
109.5
Defensive rating
95.0
55.4%
Effective FG%
56.0%
57.4%
Opp. effective FG%
51.0%
12.1%
Turnover %
11.6%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.28
35.6%
3-point %
35.4%
59.5%
Assist %
58.0%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence100.8 · 105.0Defence109.5 · 95.0Shooting55.4% · 56.0%3-point %35.6% · 35.4%Ball care12.1% · 11.6%Free throws0.22 · 0.28Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Illawarra Hawks   ■ Sydney
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Illawarra Hawks wins
6
Sydney wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26APerth100-111 OT
11/11/26ASouth East Melbourne120-110
07/11/26AAdelaide78-106
05/11/26ACairns Taipans107-95
31/10/26APerth105-98
24/10/26HBrisbane Bullets81-98
22/10/26HSydney82-108
18/10/26AMelbourne United91-89
11/10/26HCairns Taipans100-110
09/10/26HTasmania JackJumpers112-122
Sydneylast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26HNew Zealand Breakers111-102 OT
13/11/26ACairns Taipans82-84
08/11/26HSouth East Melbourne110-99
30/10/26ATasmania JackJumpers71-68
28/10/26APerth99-91
25/10/26AMelbourne United95-105
22/10/26AIllawarra Hawks108-82
17/10/26HPerth102-81
14/10/26HNew Zealand Breakers101-102
11/10/26HAdelaide78-84

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Illawarra Hawks
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL33%
HomeWLLLL20%
AwayWWLWL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games15510
Win %33%20%40%
Points / game97.597.897.3
Allowed / game104.7106.0104.1
Point differential-7.3-8.2-6.8
Avg total202.2203.8201.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+20%20%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %7%0%10%
Sydney
NBL 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW69%
HomeLLWWW75%
AwayWLWWL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %69%75%60%
Points / game98.6103.491.0
Allowed / game89.792.086.0
Point differential+8.9+11.4+5.0
Avg total188.3195.4177.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%62%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)0% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %8%12%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Sydney139469%98.689.7+8.9
2 Tasmania JackJumpers139469%94.790.4+4.3
3 Melbourne United148657%98.391.9+6.4
4 Cairns Taipans148657%92.495.9-3.6
5 Adelaide137654%92.992.5+0.5
6 Perth137654%95.797.8-2.1
7 Brisbane Bullets146843%94.499.2-4.9
8 New Zealand Breakers145936%90.691.4-0.8
9 Illawarra Hawks1551033%97.5104.7-7.3
10 South East Melbourne134931%97.998.1-0.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).
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