PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Indiana Pacers vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 05 Mar 2021
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 103-113
29-28 23-33 22-21 29-31
Position#17
Record16-21
FormLLLLW
Points / game112.5
Allowed / game112.5
vs
Position#6
Record22-16
FormWLWWW
Points / game116.3
Allowed / game109.9
USANBA· Bankers Life Fieldhouse
NBA2020-21
Meetings · Indiana Pacers v Denver Nuggets
07 Nov 2026
IND102
DEN114
03 Dec 2025
IND120
DEN135
24 Feb 2025
IND116
DEN125
23 Jan 2024
IND109
DEN114
09 Nov 2022
IND119
DEN122
30 Mar 2022
IND118
DEN125
04 Mar 2021
IND103
DEN113
02 Jan 2020
IND116
DEN124
24 Mar 2019
IND124
DEN88
10 Dec 2017
IND126
DEN116
24 Mar 2017
IND117
DEN125
30 Jan 2016
IND109
DEN105
14 Nov 2014
IND87
DEN108
10 Feb 2014
IND119
DEN80
07 Dec 2012
IND89
DEN92
11 Feb 2012
IND109
DEN113
09 Nov 2010
IND144
DEN113
03 Nov 2009
IND93
DEN111
01 Mar 2009
IND100
DEN94
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Indiana Pacers winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Indiana PacersUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormPacers
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#4
L
94-104
94
104
-10
no box
A11/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
W
111-95
111
95
+16
107avg 103
A12/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
125-113
125
113
+12
124avg 103
A14/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
112-120 OT
112
120
-8
97avg 103
H16/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
W
134-128 OT
134
128
+6
131avg 103
A18/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
L
107-111
107
111
-4
96avg 103
H25/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
L
112-118
112
118
-6
101avg 103
A27/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#11
L
107-110
107
110
-3
98avg 103
A28/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
L
114-130
114
130
-16
103avg 103
A02/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#26
W
114-111
114
111
+3
106avg 103
A04/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-27
12-35
32-20
32-22
28-19
24-33
30-18
29-25
27-26
35-32
22-29
41-26
21-24
23-25
26-30
35-26
39-33
30-40
17-19
35-29
22-25
36-31
22-28
27-27
31-32
29-29
24-31
28-26
32-23
20-31
26-27
29-29
32-33
23-39
22-33
37-25
28-28
23-33
31-29
32-21
227.0Avg total
113.0Scored
114.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (37)112.5112.5224.9-0.043%
Season at home (18)112.9112.6225.5+0.439%
Season away (19)112.0112.4224.4-0.447%
Last 10 (10)113.0114.0227.0-1.040%
Last 5 (5)110.8116.0226.8-5.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)105.1120.0225.1-14.90%
vs Similar (18)113.4110.4223.8+3.144%
vs Weaker (5)120.2112.6232.8+7.6100%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
W
122-105
122
105
+17
118avg 107
H15/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
L
99-112
99
112
-13
92avg 107
A17/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
L
128-130
128
130
-2
119avg 107
A18/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#26
W
120-103
120
103
+17
116avg 107
A20/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
L
115-123
115
123
-8
106avg 107
A22/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
W
111-106
111
106
+5
98avg 107
H24/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
L
110-112
110
112
-2
102avg 107
H26/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
W
126-96
126
96
+30
128avg 107
A28/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
118-112
118
112
+6
114avg 107
A02/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
W
128-97
128
97
+31
124avg 107
A03/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-33
40-28
30-24
19-20
26-30
28-29
21-27
24-26
41-24
23-46
29-30
35-30
33-23
36-27
26-30
25-23
33-27
23-37
20-29
39-30
34-25
23-32
21-21
33-28
22-26
32-30
34-32
22-24
38-20
27-23
34-26
27-27
37-25
25-30
27-32
29-25
37-23
27-27
35-30
29-17
227.3Avg total
117.7Scored
109.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (38)116.3109.9226.1+6.458%
Season at home (18)116.8109.0225.8+7.861%
Season away (20)115.8110.7226.4+5.155%
Last 10 (10)117.7109.6227.3+8.160%
Last 5 (5)118.6104.6223.2+14.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (17)115.1111.8226.9+3.259%
vs Weaker ◀ (13)117.7106.8224.5+10.869%
This opponent (Indiana Pacers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +7.8+7.8Q2Q2: -7.3-7.3Q2: -2.5-2.5Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +6.9+6.9Q4: +3.2+3.2
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: +0.8+0.8Q1: +7.8+7.8Q2Q2: -7.3-7.3Q2: -2.5-2.5Q3Q3: -1.2-1.2Q3: -0.4-0.4Q4Q4: +6.9+6.9Q4: +3.2+3.2
Indiana PacersDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Indiana PacersLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Brooklyn Nets
#4
L
30-62
30
62
-32
A11/02
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
D
52-52
52
52
+0
A12/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
62-58
62
58
+4
A14/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
44-49
44
49
-5
H16/02
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#25
L
69-73
69
73
-4
A18/02
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H25/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
L
60-61
60
61
-1
A27/02
NBA
New York Knicks
#11
L
52-54
52
54
-2
A28/02
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
L
55-72
55
72
-17
A02/03
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#26
L
51-61
51
61
-10
A04/03
NBA
113.1Avg total
53.3Scored
59.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.957.3113.2-1.440%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.954.9111.8+1.957%-
Last 30 away (16)55.159.4114.5-4.225%-
Last 10 (10)53.359.8113.1-6.520%-
Last 5 (5)55.260.8116.0-5.620%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (7)50.660.0110.6-9.414%-
vs Similar (18)56.855.4112.3+1.444%-
vs Weaker (5)60.260.2120.4+0.060%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
W
73-61
73
61
+12
H15/02
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
L
54-59
54
59
-5
A17/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
L
64-70
64
70
-6
A18/02
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#26
W
69-50
69
50
+19
A20/02
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
L
56-64
56
64
-8
A22/02
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H24/02
NBA
Washington Wizards
#18
L
54-56
54
56
-2
H26/02
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#27
W
65-43
65
43
+22
A28/02
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
62-55
62
55
+7
A02/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
W
64-50
64
50
+14
A03/03
NBA
118.3Avg total
61.8Scored
56.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.453.7114.1+6.763%-
Last 30 at home (12)60.954.2115.1+6.867%-
Last 30 away (18)60.153.4113.5+6.661%-
Last 10 (10)61.856.5118.3+5.350%-
Last 5 (5)60.452.2112.6+8.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (17)61.654.7116.3+6.971%-
vs Weaker ◀ (13)58.852.5111.3+6.454%-
This opponent (Indiana Pacers) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Indiana Pacerstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Indiana Pacers: 112.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀53%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.2 pts a game · 53% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.830.1
53.0%
52.8%60.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.611.2
35.4%
36.6%33.6
🏀 Free throws22.919.0
83.0%
77.7%19.0
They take 88.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 117.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.3 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.8 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.729.8
56.5%
52.8%59.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.814.1
40.5%
36.6%42.3
🏀 Free throws19.015.8
83.2%
77.7%15.8
They take 87.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Mar 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Indiana Pacers
WLLLLWLWWL
Denver Nuggets
WWWLWLWLLW
#17
League position
#6
-1.2
Net rating
+8.2
108.4
Offensive rating
118.9
109.6
Defensive rating
110.7
53.1%
Effective FG%
58.2%
53.3%
Opp. effective FG%
53.4%
12.5%
Turnover %
11.9%
18.4%
Off. rebound %
20.8%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.22
35.4%
3-point %
40.5%
63.4%
Assist %
57.6%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence108.4 · 118.9Defence109.6 · 110.7Shooting53.1% · 58.2%3-point %35.4% · 40.5%Ball care12.5% · 11.9%Off. rebounds18.4% · 20.8%Free throws0.26 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)40% · 60%
■ Indiana Pacers   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Indiana Pacers wins
6
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
04/03/21ACleveland Cavaliers114-111
02/03/21APhiladelphia 76ers114-130
28/02/21ANew York Knicks107-110
27/02/21ABoston Celtics112-118
25/02/21HGolden State Warriors107-111
18/02/21AMinnesota Timberwolves134-128 OT
16/02/21HChicago Bulls112-120 OT
14/02/21AAtlanta Hawks125-113
12/02/21ADetroit Pistons111-95
11/02/21ABrooklyn Nets94-104
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/03/21AMilwaukee Bucks128-97
02/03/21AChicago Bulls118-112
28/02/21AOklahoma City Thunder126-96
26/02/21HWashington Wizards110-112
24/02/21HPortland Trail Blazers111-106
22/02/21AAtlanta Hawks115-123
20/02/21ACleveland Cavaliers120-103
18/02/21AWashington Wizards128-130
17/02/21ABoston Celtics99-112
15/02/21HLos Angeles Lakers122-105

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Indiana Pacers
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLLW43%
HomeWLLLL39%
AwayWLLLW47%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games371819
Win %43%39%47%
Points / game112.5112.9112.0
Allowed / game112.5112.6112.4
Point differential-0.0+0.4-0.4
Avg total224.9225.5224.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+24%22%26%
Close games (≤5 pts) won31% (13)29% (7)33% (6)
Overtime %11%11%11%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW58%
HomeWWWWL61%
AwayWLWWW55%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games381820
Win %58%61%55%
Points / game116.3116.8115.8
Allowed / game109.9109.0110.7
Point differential+6.4+7.8+5.1
Avg total226.1225.8226.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+39%44%35%
Close games (≤5 pts) won36% (11)33% (6)40% (5)
Overtime %11%11%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Jazz3930977%116.7107.3+9.5
2 Philadelphia 76ers38261268%114.4110.7+3.7
3 Los Angeles Lakers41281368%111.3105.9+5.5
4 Brooklyn Nets39261367%120.8115.4+5.5
5 Phoenix Suns38231561%112.4108.1+4.4
6 Los Angeles Clippers41241759%113.6109.8+3.8
7 Denver Nuggets38221658%116.3109.9+6.4
8 Milwaukee Bucks38211755%118.2113.3+4.9
9 Portland Trail Blazers38211755%113.4115.3-1.9
10 Memphis Grizzlies35191654%112.4110.4+2.0
11 Dallas Mavericks37201754%112.6112.5+0.2
12 Golden State Warriors39211854%113.6112.3+1.3
13 New York Knicks41221954%104.4103.0+1.4
14 San Antonio Spurs34181653%110.6111.9-1.3
15 Chicago Bulls38191950%114.4114.2+0.2
16 Boston Celtics38191950%110.8110.8-0.0
17 Toronto Raptors39192049%112.7111.3+1.4
18 Miami Heat37181949%106.8108.9-2.1
19 Charlotte Hornets39182146%112.7113.3-0.6
20 New Orleans Pelicans37172046%116.4115.5+0.8
21 Atlanta Hawks40182245%112.6112.7-0.0
22 Indiana Pacers37162143%112.5112.5-0.0
23 Sacramento Kings39162341%114.2119.7-5.5
24 Washington Wizards37152241%113.5117.9-4.4
25 Cleveland Cavaliers40162440%104.1111.6-7.5
26 Oklahoma City Thunder38152339%106.1111.7-5.6
27 Orlando Magic40152538%106.5112.7-6.2
28 Houston Rockets38142437%108.2111.8-3.6
29 Detroit Pistons40122830%106.6109.8-3.3
30 Minnesota Timberwolves3983121%108.3117.2-8.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Indiana Pacers29232229103
Denver Nuggets28332131113
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.