PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Denver Nuggets vs Utah Jazz Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 28 Mar 2026
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 135-129
37-26 25-36 36-43 37-24
Position#6
Record49-30
FormLWWWW
Points / game120.4
Allowed / game116.2
vs
Position#26
Record22-55
FormLWLLL
Points / game117.6
Allowed / game125.4
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Utah Jazz
17 Feb 2027
DEN v UTA
upcoming
19 Jan 2027
DEN v UTA
upcoming
04 Oct 2026
DEN97
UTA109
27 Mar 2026
DEN135
UTA129
22 Dec 2025
DEN135
UTA112
28 Mar 2025
DEN129
UTA93
02 Nov 2024
DEN129
UTA103
09 Mar 2024
DEN142
UTA121
30 Oct 2023
DEN110
UTA102
10 Dec 2022
DEN115
UTA110
28 Oct 2022
DEN117
UTA101
16 Jan 2022
DEN102
UTA125
05 Jan 2022
DEN109
UTA115
31 Jan 2021
DEN128
UTA117
17 Jan 2021
DEN105
UTA109
01 Sep 2020
DEN80
UTA78
25 Aug 2020
DEN117
UTA107
19 Aug 2020
DEN105
UTA124
17 Aug 2020
DEN135
UTA125
08 Aug 2020
DEN134
UTA132
30 Jan 2020
DEN106
UTA100
28 Feb 2019
DEN104
UTA111
03 Nov 2018
DEN103
UTA88
05 Jan 2018
DEN99
UTA91
26 Dec 2017
DEN107
UTA83
24 Jan 2017
DEN103
UTA93
20 Nov 2016
DEN105
UTA91
14 Jul 2016
DEN80
UTA60
10 Apr 2016
DEN84
UTA100
05 Nov 2015
DEN84
UTA96
27 Mar 2015
DEN107
UTA91
27 Feb 2015
DEN82
UTA104
15 Jul 2014
DEN69
UTA87
12 Apr 2014
DEN101
UTA94
13 Dec 2013
DEN93
UTA103
05 Jan 2013
DEN110
UTA91
09 Nov 2012
DEN104
UTA84
15 Jan 2012
DEN96
UTA106
28 Dec 2011
DEN117
UTA100
04 Feb 2011
DEN106
UTA113
27 Oct 2010
DEN110
UTA88
28 Apr 2010
DEN116
UTA102
19 Apr 2010
DEN111
UTA114
17 Apr 2010
DEN126
UTA113
17 Jan 2010
DEN119
UTA112
28 Oct 2009
DEN114
UTA105
02 Apr 2009
DEN114
UTA104
25 Jan 2009
DEN117
UTA97
15 Oct 2008
DEN120
UTA119
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Utah Jazz winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
126-129
126
129
-3
120avg 113
A09/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#7
W
129-93
129
93
+36
131avg 113
H12/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
W
136-131
136
131
+5
134avg 113
A13/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
L
125-127 OT
125
127
-2
118avg 113
A15/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#16
W
124-96
124
96
+28
128avg 113
H18/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
118-125
118
125
-7
117avg 113
A19/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
121-115
121
115
+6
117avg 113
H21/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
128-112
128
112
+16
131avg 113
H22/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#14
W
125-123
125
123
+2
128avg 113
A25/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#23
W
142-135
142
135
+7
145avg 113
H26/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
40-37
20-29
33-30
33-33
24-20
29-27
40-22
36-24
25-37
28-32
41-37
42-25
26-34
24-27
37-26
31-31
38-22
34-18
28-31
24-25
30-31
30-29
31-39
27-26
27-30
30-23
28-41
36-21
42-40
33-29
32-24
21-19
28-35
39-22
30-38
28-28
34-33
34-26
43-41
31-35
246.0Avg total
127.4Scored
118.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (79)120.4116.2236.6+4.262%
Season at home (37)119.1114.9234.0+4.162%
Season away (42)121.5117.3238.8+4.362%
Last 10 (10)127.4118.6246.0+8.870%
Last 5 (5)126.8122.0248.8+4.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)123.5127.0250.5-3.525%
vs Similar (14)117.3116.0233.3+1.343%
vs Weaker ◀ (12)124.0113.3237.3+10.783%
This opponent (Utah Jazz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Utah JazzUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormJazz
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
99-113
99
113
-14
89avg 107
A08/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
119-116
119
116
+3
121avg 107
H10/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
L
117-134
117
134
-17
104avg 107
H12/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
114-124
114
124
-10
92avg 107
A14/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
111-116
111
116
-5
89avg 107
A16/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
111-147
111
147
-36
93avg 107
A19/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
128-96
128
96
+32
108avg 107
H20/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#16
L
116-126
116
126
-10
85avg 107
H22/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
127-143
127
143
-16
116avg 107
H24/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
110-133
110
133
-23
88avg 107
H26/03
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
13-24
31-27
32-32
23-30
29-27
30-28
32-29
28-32
41-26
24-30
29-40
23-38
38-28
20-38
31-29
25-29
28-26
21-28
39-35
23-27
31-43
27-29
26-38
27-37
30-19
34-25
30-29
34-23
34-38
36-26
24-31
22-31
25-31
33-37
30-49
39-26
20-33
25-39
30-32
35-29
240.0Avg total
115.2Scored
124.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (77)117.6125.4243.0-7.829%
Season at home (40)120.7126.8247.5-6.235%
Season away (37)114.3123.8238.1-9.522%
Last 10 (10)115.2124.8240.0-9.620%
Last 5 (5)118.4129.0247.4-10.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)115.0125.9240.9-10.916%
vs Similar (11)114.4114.6229.0-0.336%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: -2.6-2.6Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -4.1-4.1Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: -2.3-2.3
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: -0.5-0.5Q1: -0.6-0.6Q2Q2: +3.9+3.9Q2: -2.6-2.6Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -4.1-4.1Q4Q4: +4.2+4.2Q4: -2.3-2.3
Denver NuggetsUtah Jazz
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
60-66
60
66
-6
A09/03
NBA
Houston Rockets
#7
W
53-47
53
47
+6
H12/03
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#2
L
53-69
53
69
-16
A13/03
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
L
50-61
50
61
-11
A15/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#16
W
72-40
72
40
+32
H18/03
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
D
60-60
60
60
+0
A19/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
W
57-53
57
53
+4
H21/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
W
75-69
75
69
+6
H22/03
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#14
W
67-57
67
57
+10
A25/03
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#23
W
68-59
68
59
+9
H26/03
NBA
119.6Avg total
61.5Scored
58.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.556.5115.0+2.053%-
Last 30 at home (15)58.754.3113.0+4.567%-
Last 30 away (15)58.358.7117.0-0.540%-
Last 10 (10)61.558.1119.6+3.460%-
Last 5 (5)65.459.6125.0+5.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (4)56.861.8118.5-5.025%-
vs Similar (14)54.254.9109.1-0.650%-
vs Weaker ◀ (12)64.156.7120.8+7.467%-
This opponent (Utah Jazz) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Utah JazzLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
44-51
44
51
-7
A08/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
59-55
59
55
+4
H10/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
65-56
65
56
+9
H12/03
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#18
L
58-66
58
66
-8
A14/03
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
49-54
49
54
-5
A16/03
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#10
L
58-72
58
72
-14
A19/03
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
64-44
64
44
+20
H20/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#16
W
70-64
70
64
+6
H22/03
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#11
L
58-68
58
68
-10
H24/03
NBA
Washington Wizards
#30
L
45-72
45
72
-27
H26/03
NBA
117.2Avg total
57.0Scored
60.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.559.5117.0-2.147%-
Last 30 at home (17)58.161.4119.5-3.353%-
Last 30 away (13)56.657.1113.7-0.538%-
Last 10 (10)57.060.2117.2-3.240%-
Last 5 (5)59.064.0123.0-5.040%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (19)58.361.3119.6-2.953%-
vs Similar (11)56.056.5112.5-0.536%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 127.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.0 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers46.8 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.6 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.330.0
57.4%
54.8%60.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.915.6
42.3%
35.8%46.8
🏀 Free throws26.120.6
78.9%
78.1%20.6
They take 89.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Utah Jazztheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Utah Jazz: 114.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.4 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.2 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.428.2
52.8%
54.8%56.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.412.4
34.1%
35.8%37.2
🏀 Free throws26.721.0
78.7%
78.1%21.0
They take 89.8 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 28 Mar 2026 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWWWLWLWWL
Utah Jazz
LLLWLLLLWL
#6
League position
#26
+8.4
Net rating
-10.8
121.6
Offensive rating
104.5
113.2
Defensive rating
115.3
59.9%
Effective FG%
52.1%
53.2%
Opp. effective FG%
59.6%
10.9%
Turnover %
13.5%
24.6%
Off. rebound %
13.6%
0.29
Free-throw rate
0.30
42.3%
3-point %
34.1%
71.9%
Assist %
68.2%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
20%

Profile

Offence121.6 · 104.5Defence113.2 · 115.3Shooting59.9% · 52.1%3-point %42.3% · 34.1%Ball care10.9% · 13.5%Off. rebounds24.6% · 13.6%Free throws0.29 · 0.30Form (last 10/10)70% · 20%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Utah Jazz
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Denver Nuggets wins
1
Utah Jazz wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/03/26HDallas Mavericks142-135
25/03/26APhoenix Suns125-123
22/03/26HPortland Trail Blazers128-112
21/03/26HToronto Raptors121-115
19/03/26AMemphis Grizzlies118-125
18/03/26HPhiladelphia 76ers124-96
15/03/26ALos Angeles Lakers125-127 OT
13/03/26ASan Antonio Spurs136-131
12/03/26HHouston Rockets129-93
09/03/26AOklahoma City Thunder126-129
Utah Jazzlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/03/26HWashington Wizards110-133
24/03/26HToronto Raptors127-143
22/03/26HPhiladelphia 76ers116-126
20/03/26HMilwaukee Bucks128-96
19/03/26AMinnesota Timberwolves111-147
16/03/26ASacramento Kings111-116
14/03/26APortland Trail Blazers114-124
12/03/26HNew York Knicks117-134
10/03/26HGolden State Warriors119-116
08/03/26AMilwaukee Bucks99-113

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW62%
HomeWWWWW62%
AwayLWLLW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games793742
Win %62%62%62%
Points / game120.4119.1121.5
Allowed / game116.2114.9117.3
Point differential+4.2+4.1+4.3
Avg total236.6234.0238.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+29%32%26%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (28)44% (9)53% (19)
Overtime %9%5%12%
Utah Jazz
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 2 Wins / 8 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWLLL29%
HomeLWLLL35%
AwayWLLLL22%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games774037
Win %29%35%22%
Points / game117.6120.7114.3
Allowed / game125.4126.8123.8
Point differential-7.8-6.2-9.5
Avg total243.0247.5238.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+10%10%11%
Close games (≤5 pts) won45% (22)64% (11)27% (11)
Overtime %8%10%5%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder78611778%117.9108.0+9.9
2 San Antonio Spurs75571876%119.6111.4+8.1
3 Detroit Pistons77552271%117.5109.9+7.6
4 Boston Celtics77522568%114.4106.9+7.5
5 New York Knicks77502765%116.1110.0+6.1
6 Houston Rockets77482962%115.0110.8+4.3
7 Denver Nuggets79493062%120.4116.2+4.2
8 Los Angeles Lakers78483062%115.6114.8+0.9
9 Cleveland Cavaliers78473160%119.1115.3+3.7
10 Minnesota Timberwolves78463259%118.2114.8+3.4
11 Toronto Raptors78453358%114.2112.3+1.9
12 Phoenix Suns76433357%112.8110.5+2.2
13 Orlando Magic75423356%116.2114.5+1.7
14 Atlanta Hawks78433555%118.1116.8+1.4
15 Philadelphia 76ers77413653%115.5116.3-0.8
16 Charlotte Hornets78413753%116.6112.2+4.4
17 Los Angeles Clippers77403752%113.4112.0+1.4
18 Miami Heat79394049%119.7117.9+1.8
19 Golden State Warriors78384049%115.0114.7+0.3
20 Portland Trail Blazers78384049%115.9117.2-1.3
21 Milwaukee Bucks76324442%110.8116.2-5.4
22 Chicago Bulls78324641%116.5120.9-4.3
23 Dallas Mavericks77265134%114.1118.4-4.3
24 New Orleans Pelicans77255232%115.5119.6-4.1
25 Memphis Grizzlies78255332%115.2119.7-4.5
26 Utah Jazz77225529%117.6125.4-7.8
27 Sacramento Kings78205826%111.0121.1-10.1
28 Washington Wizards75185724%112.7123.4-10.7
29 Brooklyn Nets76185824%106.7115.8-9.1
30 Indiana Pacers78186023%112.1120.8-8.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -).

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets37253637135
Utah Jazz26364324129
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.