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Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Stats

Date: Sun 14 Feb 2027
Tip-off: 19:00
Scheduled
Position#5
Record10-3
FormLLWWW
Points / game116.2
Allowed / game107.4
vs
Form · last 5 games
3.5/10
Below normal
4.6/10
Around normal
Position#10
Record7-4
FormWWLWW
Points / game114.6
Allowed / game112.8
USANBA· Toyota Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Houston Rockets v Denver Nuggets
14 Feb 2027
HOU v DEN
upcoming
09 Nov 2026
HOU110
DEN100
21 Nov 2025
HOU109
DEN112
13 Apr 2025
HOU111
DEN126
23 Mar 2025
HOU111
DEN116
24 Nov 2023
HOU105
DEN86
12 Nov 2023
HOU107
DEN104
04 Apr 2023
HOU124
DEN103
28 Feb 2023
HOU112
DEN133
01 Jan 2022
HOU111
DEN124
16 Apr 2021
HOU99
DEN128
22 Jan 2020
HOU121
DEN105
31 Dec 2019
HOU130
DEN104
28 Mar 2019
HOU112
DEN85
07 Jan 2019
HOU125
DEN113
09 Feb 2018
HOU130
DEN104
22 Nov 2017
HOU125
DEN95
05 Apr 2017
HOU110
DEN104
20 Mar 2017
HOU125
DEN124
28 Oct 2015
HOU85
DEN105
19 Mar 2015
HOU118
DEN108
13 Dec 2014
HOU108
DEN96
06 Apr 2014
HOU130
DEN125
16 Nov 2013
HOU122
DEN111
23 Jan 2013
HOU95
DEN105
07 Nov 2012
HOU87
DEN93
16 Apr 2012
HOU102
DEN105
02 Mar 2012
HOU105
DEN117
14 Feb 2011
HOU121
DEN102
30 Oct 2010
HOU94
DEN107
15 Mar 2010
HOU125
DEN123
27 Jan 2010
HOU92
DEN97
19 Jan 2009
HOU115
DEN113
16 Dec 2008
HOU108
DEN96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Houston Rockets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#13
W
120-110
120
110
+10
126avg 108
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
132-100
132
100
+32
127avg 108
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
L
111-116
111
116
-5
98avg 108
A31/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
119-98
119
98
+21
110avg 108
H01/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
109-93
109
93
+16
109avg 108
H03/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
L
107-117
107
117
-10
97avg 108
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
L
99-102
99
102
-3
81avg 108
A08/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#10
W
110-100
110
100
+10
107avg 108
H10/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
115-108
115
108
+7
108avg 108
H12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
125-118
125
118
+7
117avg 108
H14/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
32-35
31-31
28-19
29-25
23-21
34-14
38-34
37-31
20-27
31-17
33-32
27-40
35-26
27-25
30-24
27-23
29-29
28-21
25-23
27-20
30-33
27-24
27-25
23-35
23-35
24-12
28-29
24-26
32-24
22-16
23-28
33-32
35-20
21-31
29-28
30-29
27-27
36-26
29-36
33-29
220.9Avg total
114.7Scored
106.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (13)116.2107.4223.5+8.877%
Season at home (8)116.6106.8223.4+9.988%
Season away (5)115.4108.4223.8+7.060%
Last 10 (10)114.7106.2220.9+8.570%
Last 5 (5)111.2109.0220.2+2.260%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)114.0110.0224.0+4.0100%
vs Similar (12)106.5105.2211.7+1.342%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)120.8107.4228.2+13.588%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 113
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 113
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 113
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 113
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 113
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 113
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 113
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
100-110
100
110
-10
87avg 113
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#8
W
123-118
123
118
+5
114avg 113
A12/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
116-108
116
108
+8
117avg 113
A15/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
27-19
37-22
26-37
24-24
24-32
16-22
28-23
32-33
35-24
30-28
29-38
29-28
29-23
27-28
30-31
30-26
232.2Avg total
117.7Scored
114.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (11)114.6112.8227.5+1.864%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (7)109.7106.4216.1+3.371%
Last 10 (10)117.7114.5232.2+3.270%
Last 5 (5)116.2109.4225.6+6.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)115.0113.2228.2+1.850%
vs Similar (13)113.9115.5229.4-1.554%
vs Weaker (13)126.5116.8243.2+9.792%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +6.4+6.4Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +1.1+1.1
-8-4+0+4+8Q1Q1: +0.9+0.9Q1: +3.1+3.1Q2Q2: +6.4+6.4Q2: -0.3-0.3Q3Q3: +1.2+1.2Q3: -1.3-1.3Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +1.1+1.1
Houston RocketsDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#13
L
63-66
63
66
-3
H27/10
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#30
W
57-35
57
35
+22
A29/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#14
W
51-44
51
44
+7
A31/10
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#12
W
62-51
62
51
+11
H01/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
57-50
57
50
+7
H03/11
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#7
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H05/11
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
D
47-47
47
47
+0
A08/11
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#10
W
54-40
54
40
+14
H10/11
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
W
56-51
56
51
+5
H12/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#29
W
63-53
63
53
+10
H14/11
NBA
106.1Avg total
56.7Scored
49.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.350.4107.8+6.970%-
Last 30 at home (17)59.951.7111.6+8.276%-
Last 30 away (13)53.948.8102.7+5.262%-
Last 10 (10)56.749.4106.1+7.370%-
Last 5 (5)55.449.6105.0+5.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)61.059.0120.0+2.0100%-
vs Similar (12)53.053.1106.1-0.142%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)60.248.1108.2+12.188%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#11
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#18
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#6
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#19
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#21
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#8
W
65-52
65
52
+13
A12/11
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
56-51
56
51
+5
A15/11
NBA
116.4Avg total
59.6Scored
56.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.958.2118.1+1.653%-
Last 30 at home (16)61.762.4124.1-0.738%-
Last 30 away (14)57.853.5111.3+4.371%-
Last 10 (10)59.656.8116.4+2.860%-
Last 5 (5)57.853.0110.8+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)57.553.8111.2+3.875%-
vs Similar (13)58.258.0116.2+0.246%-
vs Weaker (13)62.359.8122.2+2.554%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 115.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers58.6 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.1 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.3 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.429.3
53.9%
54.0%58.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.011.7
35.5%
35.1%35.1
🏀 Free throws26.321.3
81.0%
77.3%21.3
They take 87.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 33.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.3 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.031.2
56.7%
54.0%62.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.410.1
32.2%
35.1%30.3
🏀 Free throws24.919.6
78.7%
77.3%19.6
They take 86.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 14 Feb 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Houston Rockets
WWWLLWWLWW
Denver Nuggets
WWLWWLWWLW
#5
League position
#10
+4.5
Net rating
-1.6
115.9
Offensive rating
110.1
111.4
Defensive rating
111.6
53.6%
Effective FG%
53.6%
54.1%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
13.9%
Turnover %
11.1%
32.7%
Off. rebound %
16.8%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.29
35.5%
3-point %
32.2%
63.2%
Assist %
65.9%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence115.9 · 110.1Defence111.4 · 111.6Shooting53.6% · 53.6%3-point %35.5% · 32.2%Ball care13.9% · 11.1%Off. rebounds32.7% · 16.8%Free throws0.30 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Houston Rockets   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
4
Houston Rockets wins
6
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/11/26HUtah Jazz125-118
12/11/26HGolden State Warriors115-108
10/11/26HDenver Nuggets110-100
08/11/26APhoenix Suns99-102
05/11/26HMinnesota Timberwolves107-117
03/11/26HBoston Celtics109-93
01/11/26HOklahoma City Thunder119-98
31/10/26ADallas Mavericks111-116
29/10/26AMilwaukee Bucks132-100
27/10/26HAtlanta Hawks120-110
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/11/26ANew Orleans Pelicans116-108
12/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies123-118
10/11/26AHouston Rockets100-110
07/11/26AIndiana Pacers114-102
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Houston Rockets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW77%
HomeWLWWW88%
AwayWWWLL60%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1385
Win %77%88%60%
Points / game116.2116.6115.4
Allowed / game107.4106.8108.4
Point differential+8.8+9.9+7.0
Avg total223.5223.4223.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+46%62%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won33% (3)-33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW64%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayWWLWW71%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1147
Win %64%50%71%
Points / game114.6123.2109.7
Allowed / game112.8124.0106.4
Point differential+1.8-0.8+3.3
Avg total227.5247.2216.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+27%25%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %9%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 San Antonio Spurs1311285%119.5106.2+13.2
2 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
3 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
4 Philadelphia 76ers1411379%112.6110.4+2.1
5 Houston Rockets1310377%116.2107.4+8.8
6 Portland Trail Blazers129375%119.6111.8+7.8
7 Minnesota Timberwolves139469%118.3106.8+11.5
8 Memphis Grizzlies139469%120.6111.7+8.9
9 Detroit Pistons128467%115.7110.2+5.4
10 Denver Nuggets117464%114.6112.8+1.8
11 Golden State Warriors138562%116.7112.4+4.3
12 Oklahoma City Thunder138562%111.2107.4+3.8
13 Atlanta Hawks137654%118.2116.8+1.3
14 Dallas Mavericks137654%113.5113.3+0.2
15 Miami Heat137654%118.7119.8-1.2
16 New York Knicks126650%109.8103.7+6.1
17 Cleveland Cavaliers147750%117.5115.9+1.6
18 Phoenix Suns115645%111.7116.1-4.4
19 Toronto Raptors125742%114.2112.8+1.4
20 Orlando Magic125742%108.3112.8-4.4
21 Indiana Pacers145936%112.1114.5-2.4
22 Charlotte Hornets124833%98.6109.6-11.0
23 Washington Wizards134931%110.0115.8-5.8
24 New Orleans Pelicans1441029%115.9124.9-9.1
25 Los Angeles Clippers113827%112.3117.5-5.3
26 Brooklyn Nets123925%110.2116.4-6.2
27 Chicago Bulls123925%114.6125.9-11.3
28 Sacramento Kings121118%108.2120.9-12.8
29 Utah Jazz131128%107.5118.6-11.2
30 Milwaukee Bucks131128%106.2120.2-14.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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