PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Houston Rockets vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 17 Apr 2021
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 99-128
28-35 21-34 30-31 20-28
Position#30
Record17-42
FormWLLLL
Points / game108.6
Allowed / game114.0
vs
Position#6
Record37-21
FormWWLLW
Points / game115.3
Allowed / game109.5
USANBA· Toyota Center
NBA2020-21
Meetings · Houston Rockets v Denver Nuggets
14 Feb 2027
HOU v DEN
upcoming
09 Nov 2026
HOU110
DEN100
21 Nov 2025
HOU109
DEN112
13 Apr 2025
HOU111
DEN126
23 Mar 2025
HOU111
DEN116
24 Nov 2023
HOU105
DEN86
12 Nov 2023
HOU107
DEN104
04 Apr 2023
HOU124
DEN103
28 Feb 2023
HOU112
DEN133
01 Jan 2022
HOU111
DEN124
16 Apr 2021
HOU99
DEN128
22 Jan 2020
HOU121
DEN105
31 Dec 2019
HOU130
DEN104
28 Mar 2019
HOU112
DEN85
07 Jan 2019
HOU125
DEN113
09 Feb 2018
HOU130
DEN104
22 Nov 2017
HOU125
DEN95
05 Apr 2017
HOU110
DEN104
20 Mar 2017
HOU125
DEN124
28 Oct 2015
HOU85
DEN105
19 Mar 2015
HOU118
DEN108
13 Dec 2014
HOU108
DEN96
06 Apr 2014
HOU130
DEN125
16 Nov 2013
HOU122
DEN111
23 Jan 2013
HOU95
DEN105
07 Nov 2012
HOU87
DEN93
16 Apr 2012
HOU102
DEN105
02 Mar 2012
HOU105
DEN117
14 Feb 2011
HOU121
DEN102
30 Oct 2010
HOU94
DEN107
15 Mar 2010
HOU125
DEN123
27 Jan 2010
HOU92
DEN97
19 Jan 2009
HOU115
DEN113
16 Dec 2008
HOU108
DEN96
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Houston Rockets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Houston RocketsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormRockets
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#14
L
110-120
110
120
-10
100avg 99
H30/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
L
108-120
108
120
-12
97avg 99
A31/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
L
102-118
102
118
-16
91avg 99
A02/04
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
L
115-122
115
122
-7
108avg 99
H05/04
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
130-133
130
133
-3
128avg 99
H06/04
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#9
W
102-93
102
93
+9
92avg 99
H08/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
109-126
109
126
-17
103avg 99
A10/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
L
109-125
109
125
-16
101avg 99
A11/04
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
120-126
120
126
-6
123avg 99
A13/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
124-132
124
132
-8
108avg 99
H15/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-23
30-34
34-33
19-30
42-29
26-28
19-29
21-34
25-33
19-19
26-30
32-36
27-38
32-32
33-19
23-33
34-34
26-36
32-31
38-32
24-23
23-19
28-22
27-29
36-26
10-41
37-27
26-32
30-32
18-33
32-29
29-31
29-38
29-43
30-22
32-23
24-33
31-42
39-31
30-26
234.4Avg total
112.9Scored
121.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (59)108.6114.0222.6-5.329%
Season at home (29)107.4112.5219.9-5.131%
Season away (30)109.8115.4225.3-5.627%
Last 10 (10)112.9121.5234.4-8.610%
Last 5 (5)112.8120.4233.2-7.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)108.3121.2229.5-13.09%
vs Similar (7)104.7111.3216.0-6.614%
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
126-102
126
102
+24
126avg 108
H29/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
104-95
104
95
+9
105avg 108
H31/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
W
101-94
101
94
+7
97avg 108
A02/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#28
W
119-109
119
109
+10
118avg 108
H05/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
W
134-119
134
119
+15
137avg 108
H07/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
106-96
106
96
+10
101avg 108
H08/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
121-119
121
119
+2
128avg 108
H10/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
L
87-105
87
105
-18
76avg 108
H11/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
L
107-116
107
116
-9
100avg 108
A13/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
123-106
123
106
+17
123avg 108
H15/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-35
34-20
32-24
29-23
44-22
24-23
20-26
16-24
31-20
31-29
19-21
20-24
23-29
24-36
38-21
34-23
39-32
37-24
33-30
25-33
30-32
24-18
27-24
25-22
36-26
25-24
35-33
25-36
27-16
24-29
28-29
8-31
32-33
29-23
22-43
24-17
26-31
34-18
36-30
27-27
218.9Avg total
112.8Scored
106.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (58)115.3109.5224.8+5.864%
Season at home (31)116.6109.0225.6+7.668%
Season away (27)113.8110.0223.8+3.859%
Last 10 (10)112.8106.1218.9+6.780%
Last 5 (5)108.8108.4217.2+0.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (12)108.8106.1214.9+2.858%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)118.9110.9229.9+8.078%
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +4.3+4.3Q2Q2: -8.3-8.3Q2: +4.2+4.2Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: -2.7-2.7
-10-5+0+5+10Q1Q1: -1.1-1.1Q1: +4.3+4.3Q2Q2: -8.3-8.3Q2: +4.2+4.2Q3Q3: +3.7+3.7Q3: +0.9+0.9Q4Q4: -2.9-2.9Q4: -2.7-2.7
Houston RocketsDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Houston RocketsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#14
D
57-57
57
57
+0
H30/03
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#4
W
68-57
68
57
+11
A31/03
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
L
44-52
44
52
-8
A02/04
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
L
59-70
59
70
-11
H05/04
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
60-70
60
70
-10
H06/04
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#9
W
47-42
47
42
+5
H08/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
L
46-67
46
67
-21
A10/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
L
48-65
48
65
-17
A11/04
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
58-81
58
81
-23
A13/04
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
55-75
55
75
-20
H15/04
NBA
117.8Avg total
54.2Scored
63.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.162.3116.4-8.220%-
Last 30 at home (16)53.462.2115.6-8.812%-
Last 30 away (14)54.962.4117.2-7.529%-
Last 10 (10)54.263.6117.8-9.420%-
Last 5 (5)50.866.0116.8-15.220%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (23)53.164.4117.5-11.313%-
vs Similar (7)57.355.3112.6+2.043%-
vs Weakerno games
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H29/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
68-45
68
45
+23
H31/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
W
62-49
62
49
+13
A02/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#28
L
47-65
47
65
-18
H05/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H07/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
54-50
54
50
+4
H08/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
61-50
61
50
+11
H10/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
51-45
51
45
+6
H11/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
W
61-56
61
56
+5
A13/04
NBA
Miami Heat
#15
W
60-49
60
49
+11
H15/04
NBA
112.5Avg total
60.5Scored
52.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.254.7114.0+4.560%-
Last 30 at home (16)58.654.1112.6+4.562%-
Last 30 away (14)60.055.5115.5+4.557%-
Last 10 (10)60.552.0112.5+8.590%-
Last 5 (5)57.450.0107.4+7.4100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (12)59.654.8114.4+4.858%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)59.054.7113.7+4.361%-
This opponent (Houston Rockets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Houston Rocketstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Houston Rockets: 112.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀48%
🏀🏀🏀37%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.4 pts a game · 48% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.4 pts a game · 37% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.127.2
55.4%
52.8%54.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.513.8
35.8%
36.6%41.4
🏀 Free throws23.317.1
73.4%
77.7%17.1
They take 87.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.2 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.4 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.2 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.531.1
55.0%
52.8%62.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.111.8
39.2%
36.6%35.4
🏀 Free throws19.015.2
80.0%
77.7%15.2
They take 86.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 30.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 17 Apr 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Houston Rockets
LLLLWLLLLL
Denver Nuggets
WLLWWWWWWW
#30
League position
#6
-8.4
Net rating
+6.9
110.4
Offensive rating
116.3
118.8
Defensive rating
109.4
54.7%
Effective FG%
56.4%
58.8%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
14.6%
Turnover %
14.4%
22.5%
Off. rebound %
28.4%
0.27
Free-throw rate
0.22
35.8%
3-point %
39.2%
62.7%
Assist %
66.4%
10%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence110.4 · 116.3Defence118.8 · 109.4Shooting54.7% · 56.4%3-point %35.8% · 39.2%Ball care14.6% · 14.4%Off. rebounds22.5% · 28.4%Free throws0.27 · 0.22Form (last 10/10)10% · 80%
■ Houston Rockets   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Houston Rockets wins
4
Denver Nuggets wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/04/21HIndiana Pacers124-132
13/04/21APhoenix Suns120-126
11/04/21AGolden State Warriors109-125
10/04/21ALos Angeles Clippers109-126
08/04/21HDallas Mavericks102-93
06/04/21HPhoenix Suns130-133
05/04/21HNew Orleans Pelicans115-122
02/04/21ABoston Celtics102-118
31/03/21ABrooklyn Nets108-120
30/03/21HMemphis Grizzlies110-120
DateH/AOpponentScore
15/04/21HMiami Heat123-106
13/04/21AGolden State Warriors107-116
11/04/21HBoston Celtics87-105
10/04/21HSan Antonio Spurs121-119
08/04/21HSan Antonio Spurs106-96
07/04/21HDetroit Pistons134-119
05/04/21HOrlando Magic119-109
02/04/21ALos Angeles Clippers101-94
31/03/21HPhiladelphia 76ers104-95
29/03/21HAtlanta Hawks126-102

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Houston Rockets
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 1 Wins / 9 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL29%
HomeLLLWL31%
AwayLLLLL27%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games592930
Win %29%31%27%
Points / game108.6107.4109.8
Allowed / game114.0112.5115.4
Point differential-5.3-5.1-5.6
Avg total222.6219.9225.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+19%17%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)40% (5)40% (5)
Overtime %2%0%3%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW64%
HomeWWWLW68%
AwayWLWWL59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games583127
Win %64%68%59%
Points / game115.3116.6113.8
Allowed / game109.5109.0110.0
Point differential+5.8+7.6+3.8
Avg total224.8225.6223.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+41%48%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)44% (9)57% (7)
Overtime %9%10%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Jazz59451476%117.1107.2+9.9
2 Philadelphia 76ers58411771%113.6108.2+5.4
3 Brooklyn Nets58401869%118.9113.8+5.1
4 Phoenix Suns59401968%114.2108.2+6.0
5 Los Angeles Clippers61392264%114.0108.5+5.5
6 Denver Nuggets58372164%115.3109.5+5.8
7 Los Angeles Lakers60382263%109.9105.6+4.3
8 Milwaukee Bucks58352360%118.7113.2+5.5
9 Dallas Mavericks57322556%111.9109.9+2.0
10 Portland Trail Blazers58322655%114.1115.2-1.1
11 New York Knicks60322853%105.2103.3+2.0
12 Atlanta Hawks60322853%113.2111.7+1.5
13 Memphis Grizzlies57302753%113.3111.3+1.9
14 Boston Celtics58302852%111.9110.5+1.4
15 Miami Heat57292851%106.2107.5-1.4
16 Golden State Warriors59302951%112.9113.2-0.3
17 Charlotte Hornets59283147%110.4111.8-1.5
18 New Orleans Pelicans58273147%114.7114.5+0.2
19 San Antonio Spurs56263046%110.4112.4-2.0
20 Indiana Pacers58263245%113.4114.1-0.7
21 Chicago Bulls58253343%112.0113.0-1.0
22 Toronto Raptors60253542%111.9111.3+0.6
23 Sacramento Kings60243640%113.9118.5-4.6
24 Washington Wizards58233540%113.1117.8-4.7
25 Cleveland Cavaliers59223737%103.6110.9-7.3
26 Oklahoma City Thunder59213836%105.5114.2-8.7
27 Orlando Magic60204033%105.0112.3-7.4
28 Detroit Pistons60194132%106.8109.9-3.1
29 Houston Rockets59174229%108.6114.0-5.3
30 Minnesota Timberwolves59154425%110.3118.2-7.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Houston Rockets2821302099
Denver Nuggets35343128128
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.