PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Sun 23 Dec 2018
Tip-off: 01:00
Final 94-87
21-8 16-30 35-20 22-29
Position#17
Record14-16
FormLLWWW
Points / game106.6
Allowed / game107.4
vs
Position#1
Record22-9
FormLWWWW
Points / game117.8
Allowed / game108.9
USANBA· AmericanAirlines Arena
NBA2018-19
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
106-101
106
101
+5
92avg 97
H01/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
102-100
102
100
+2
89avg 97
H02/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
L
90-105
90
105
-15
77avg 97
H05/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
115-98
115
98
+17
113avg 97
A08/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#12
W
121-98
121
98
+23
116avg 97
A09/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
L
105-108
105
108
-3
100avg 97
A11/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
84-111
84
111
-27
64avg 97
A13/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
100-97
100
97
+3
101avg 97
A15/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
102-96
102
96
+6
95avg 97
A17/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
W
101-99
101
99
+2
91avg 97
H21/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
37-17
24-24
20-34
25-26
27-35
26-20
27-22
22-23
25-27
25-19
12-30
28-29
34-36
26-14
29-23
26-25
34-30
31-32
26-28
30-8
23-27
35-28
25-29
22-24
15-40
18-20
20-32
31-19
29-28
22-21
20-24
29-24
33-28
24-23
28-22
17-23
21-33
32-25
29-18
19-23
203.9Avg total
102.6Scored
101.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)106.6107.4214.0-0.847%
Season at home (15)105.1107.3212.4-2.140%
Season away (15)108.1107.6215.7+0.553%
Last 10 (10)102.6101.3203.9+1.370%
Last 5 (5)98.4102.2200.6-3.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)100.5108.8209.2-8.250%
vs Similar (21)106.5108.0214.6-1.543%
vs Weaker (5)111.8103.8215.6+8.060%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#30
L
134-136 OT
134
136
-2
129avg 104
A01/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
W
115-92
115
92
+23
111avg 104
H06/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
95-105
95
105
-10
82avg 104
H08/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
W
104-99
104
99
+5
94avg 104
A09/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
108-92
108
92
+16
101avg 104
H11/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
L
97-113
97
113
-16
83avg 104
A13/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
114-102
114
102
+12
106avg 104
A15/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
W
107-104
107
104
+3
103avg 104
A18/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
123-115
123
115
+8
120avg 104
H20/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#8
W
120-107
120
107
+13
124avg 104
A22/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-28
31-33
31-32
27-31
30-21
26-24
28-19
31-28
22-27
29-30
25-26
19-22
25-30
26-19
28-25
25-25
31-18
28-23
25-25
24-26
23-29
20-29
27-27
27-28
27-16
34-31
30-30
23-25
25-27
30-16
26-34
26-27
33-31
29-35
28-24
33-25
35-22
30-26
28-30
27-29
218.2Avg total
111.7Scored
106.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (31)117.8108.9226.8+8.971%
Season at home (17)119.7106.5226.2+13.282%
Season away (14)115.6111.9227.4+3.757%
Last 10 (10)111.7106.5218.2+5.270%
Last 5 (5)112.2108.2220.4+4.080%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)114.2106.0220.2+8.275%
vs Weaker ◀ (26)118.6109.3227.8+9.369%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -2.3-2.3Q1: +3.7+3.7Q2Q2: +3.7+3.7Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: -0.4-0.4
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -2.3-2.3Q1: +3.7+3.7Q2Q2: +3.7+3.7Q2: +1.7+1.7Q3Q3: -2.6-2.6Q3: +0.4+0.4Q4Q4: +2.5+2.5Q4: -0.4-0.4
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
61-41
61
41
+20
H01/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
53-55
53
55
-2
H02/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
50-46
50
46
+4
H05/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#28
W
60-50
60
50
+10
A08/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#12
W
65-62
65
62
+3
A09/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#20
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A11/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
33-60
33
60
-27
A13/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
51-49
51
49
+2
A15/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
57-51
57
51
+6
A17/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#5
L
53-58
53
58
-5
H21/12
NBA
106.8Avg total
54.1Scored
52.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.354.4108.7-0.150%-
Last 30 at home (15)53.553.3106.7+0.253%-
Last 30 away (15)55.155.5110.7-0.447%-
Last 10 (10)54.152.7106.8+1.470%-
Last 5 (5)50.454.6105.0-4.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (4)48.259.0107.2-10.80%-
vs Similar (21)54.753.3108.0+1.457%-
vs Weaker (5)57.455.2112.6+2.260%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#30
W
66-61
66
61
+5
A01/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
W
56-45
56
45
+11
H06/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#2
L
51-57
51
57
-6
H08/12
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#3
W
51-49
51
49
+2
A09/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
59-41
59
41
+18
H11/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#13
L
43-58
43
58
-15
A13/12
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#29
W
61-47
61
47
+14
A15/12
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#16
W
55-43
55
43
+12
A18/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
62-66
62
66
-4
H20/12
NBA
Boston Celtics
#8
W
65-48
65
48
+17
A22/12
NBA
108.4Avg total
56.9Scored
51.5Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.454.5113.9+4.863%-
Last 30 at home (17)60.655.5116.1+5.159%-
Last 30 away (13)57.853.3111.1+4.569%-
Last 10 (10)56.951.5108.4+5.470%-
Last 5 (5)57.252.4109.6+4.860%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (4)57.052.5109.5+4.575%-
vs Weaker ◀ (26)59.754.8114.6+4.962%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 102.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.3 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.1 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.525.6
47.9%
51.7%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.512.1
34.1%
35.4%36.3
🏀 Free throws22.215.1
68.0%
76.6%15.1
They take 89.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 111.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.8 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.7 points a game
53%
31%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.027.4
53.7%
51.7%54.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.913.0
34.3%
35.4%39.0
🏀 Free throws23.117.9
77.5%
76.6%17.9
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 36%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 23 Dec 2018 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWLLWWLWW
Milwaukee Bucks
WWWWLWWLWL
#17
League position
#1
+1.3
Net rating
+5.0
104.7
Offensive rating
107.8
103.4
Defensive rating
102.8
49.2%
Effective FG%
52.8%
50.1%
Opp. effective FG%
50.8%
13.6%
Turnover %
13.5%
28.2%
Off. rebound %
21.6%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.26
34.1%
3-point %
34.3%
63.4%
Assist %
61.4%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence104.7 · 107.8Defence103.4 · 102.8Shooting49.2% · 52.8%3-point %34.1% · 34.3%Ball care13.6% · 13.5%Off. rebounds28.2% · 21.6%Free throws0.25 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Miami Heat wins
3
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
21/12/18HHouston Rockets101-99
17/12/18ANew Orleans Pelicans102-96
15/12/18AMemphis Grizzlies100-97
13/12/18AUtah Jazz84-111
11/12/18ALos Angeles Lakers105-108
09/12/18ALos Angeles Clippers121-98
08/12/18APhoenix Suns115-98
05/12/18HOrlando Magic90-105
02/12/18HUtah Jazz102-100
01/12/18HNew Orleans Pelicans106-101
DateH/AOpponentScore
22/12/18ABoston Celtics120-107
20/12/18HNew Orleans Pelicans123-115
18/12/18ADetroit Pistons107-104
15/12/18ACleveland Cavaliers114-102
13/12/18AIndiana Pacers97-113
11/12/18HCleveland Cavaliers108-92
09/12/18AToronto Raptors104-99
08/12/18HGolden State Warriors95-105
06/12/18HDetroit Pistons115-92
01/12/18ANew York Knicks134-136 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWW47%
HomeLWWLW40%
AwayWLLWW53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301515
Win %47%40%53%
Points / game106.6105.1108.1
Allowed / game107.4107.3107.6
Point differential-0.8-2.1+0.5
Avg total214.0212.4215.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+13%7%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won55% (11)60% (5)50% (6)
Overtime %3%0%7%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2018-19
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWWW71%
HomeWWLWW82%
AwayWLWWW57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games311714
Win %71%82%57%
Points / game117.8119.7115.6
Allowed / game108.9106.5111.9
Point differential+8.9+13.2+3.7
Avg total226.8226.2227.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+45%59%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (10)33% (3)43% (7)
Overtime %6%0%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Toronto Raptors35251071%114.3107.6+6.7
2 Milwaukee Bucks3122971%117.8108.9+8.9
3 Denver Nuggets31211068%110.0104.3+5.7
4 Oklahoma City Thunder30201067%112.1105.3+6.9
5 Golden State Warriors32211166%115.5110.4+5.0
6 Philadelphia 76ers34221265%114.6111.7+2.8
7 Indiana Pacers33211264%106.2101.0+5.2
8 Los Angeles Lakers32191359%113.2111.4+1.8
9 Los Angeles Clippers32191359%115.2114.2+1.1
10 Boston Celtics31181358%111.1104.8+6.3
11 Portland Trail Blazers32181456%111.1110.5+0.7
12 San Antonio Spurs33181555%111.6109.5+2.1
13 Sacramento Kings32171553%114.9116.4-1.5
14 Charlotte Hornets31161552%113.2110.6+2.6
15 Houston Rockets31161552%109.2108.7+0.5
16 Dallas Mavericks30151550%110.2109.2+1.0
17 Memphis Grizzlies32161650%101.8102.2-0.5
18 Detroit Pistons30151550%108.9109.9-1.0
19 Utah Jazz33161748%106.9105.9+1.0
20 Miami Heat30141647%106.6107.4-0.8
21 New Orleans Pelicans33151845%116.3115.2+1.1
22 Orlando Magic31141745%102.8106.9-4.1
23 Brooklyn Nets34151944%110.5111.3-0.8
24 Minnesota Timberwolves32141844%110.8111.6-0.8
25 Washington Wizards33132039%114.0118.4-4.5
26 New York Knicks3492526%108.6115.9-7.3
27 Atlanta Hawks3182326%109.0118.6-9.6
28 Cleveland Cavaliers3382524%103.1111.6-8.5
29 Phoenix Suns3382524%104.6113.5-8.8
30 Chicago Bulls3382524%100.6110.5-9.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat2116352294
Milwaukee Bucks830202987
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.