PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks Result & Analysis

Date: Wed 29 Nov 2023
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 124-131
22-31 40-28 35-34 27-38
Position#18
Record10-7
FormLWWLL
Points / game109.8
Allowed / game107.8
vs
Position#8
Record12-5
FormWWLWW
Points / game120.4
Allowed / game117.5
USANBA· Kaseya Center (Miami)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Miami Heat v Milwaukee Bucks
04 Feb 2027
MIA v MIL
upcoming
18 Nov 2026
MIA v MIL
upcoming
12 Mar 2026
MIA112
MIL105
26 Nov 2025
MIA106
MIL103
05 Apr 2025
MIA115
MIL121
26 Nov 2024
MIA103
MIL106
28 Nov 2023
MIA124
MIL131
24 Apr 2023
MIA119
MIL114
22 Apr 2023
MIA121
MIL99
14 Jan 2023
MIA111
MIL95
12 Jan 2023
MIA108
MIL102
08 Dec 2021
MIA113
MIL104
21 Oct 2021
MIA137
MIL95
29 May 2021
MIA103
MIL120
27 May 2021
MIA84
MIL113
30 Dec 2020
MIA119
MIL108
29 Dec 2020
MIA97
MIL144
06 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL118
04 Sep 2020
MIA115
MIL100
02 Mar 2020
MIA105
MIL89
15 Mar 2019
MIA98
MIL113
22 Dec 2018
MIA94
MIL87
09 Feb 2018
MIA91
MIL85
14 Jan 2018
MIA97
MIL79
21 Jan 2017
MIA109
MIL97
17 Nov 2016
MIA96
MIL73
19 Jan 2016
MIA79
MIL91
27 Jan 2015
MIA102
MIL109
16 Nov 2014
MIA84
MIL91
02 Apr 2014
MIA96
MIL77
12 Nov 2013
MIA118
MIL95
23 Apr 2013
MIA98
MIL86
21 Apr 2013
MIA110
MIL87
09 Apr 2013
MIA94
MIL83
21 Nov 2012
MIA113
MIL106
22 Jan 2012
MIA82
MIL91
06 Apr 2011
MIA85
MIL90
04 Jan 2011
MIA101
MIL89
27 Feb 2010
MIA71
MIL94
01 Feb 2010
MIA81
MIL97
28 Mar 2009
MIA102
MIL85
15 Dec 2008
MIA83
MIL98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Milwaukee Bucks winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
108-102
108
102
+6
104avg 101
A09/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
117-109
117
109
+8
109avg 101
A12/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
118-113
118
113
+5
109avg 101
A13/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
111-105
111
105
+6
106avg 101
A15/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
122-115
122
115
+7
116avg 101
H17/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
L
97-102
97
102
-5
88avg 101
A19/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
118-100
118
100
+18
118avg 101
A21/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
129-96
129
96
+33
126avg 101
A23/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
98-100
98
100
-2
85avg 101
A25/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
L
97-112
97
112
-15
89avg 101
A25/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-26
21-20
23-30
31-26
41-24
22-28
30-30
24-27
15-29
35-24
32-31
36-29
24-32
33-16
30-32
24-25
30-27
30-25
35-31
27-32
26-14
24-26
26-28
21-34
33-27
32-26
28-28
25-19
37-26
32-29
32-24
28-17
28-25
22-26
37-20
11-29
22-26
31-37
23-27
21-22
216.9Avg total
111.5Scored
105.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)109.8107.8217.6+2.059%
Season at home (5)111.8109.4221.2+2.480%
Season away (12)109.0107.2216.2+1.850%
Last 10 (10)111.5105.4216.9+6.170%
Last 5 (5)107.8102.0209.8+5.840%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)100.5104.6205.1-4.129%
vs Similar ◀ (10)110.5107.2217.7+3.350%
vs Weaker (6)111.3104.3215.7+7.0100%
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormBucks
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
124-126
124
126
-2
117avg 111
A10/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
L
97-112
97
112
-15
89avg 111
A11/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
118-109
118
109
+9
112avg 111
H14/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
128-112
128
112
+16
124avg 111
A16/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
130-99
130
99
+31
133avg 111
A18/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
132-125
132
125
+7
125avg 111
H19/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
142-129
142
129
+13
146avg 111
A21/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
116-119
116
119
-3
101avg 111
A23/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
131-128
131
128
+3
128avg 111
H25/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
W
108-102
108
102
+6
96avg 111
H26/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-38
36-28
34-27
30-33
25-29
24-36
23-23
25-24
35-18
24-31
24-25
35-35
36-21
34-26
30-32
28-33
28-37
31-20
33-24
38-18
33-34
27-24
29-40
43-27
31-27
39-38
34-37
38-27
17-29
36-38
26-27
37-25
34-35
26-26
32-28
39-39
26-31
26-37
23-20
33-14
238.7Avg total
122.6Scored
116.1Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (17)120.4117.5237.8+2.971%
Season at home (9)118.8116.1234.9+2.789%
Season away (8)122.1119.0241.1+3.150%
Last 10 (10)122.6116.1238.7+6.570%
Last 5 (5)125.8120.6246.4+5.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)116.0119.0235.0-3.00%
vs Similar ◀ (17)115.0118.9233.9-3.947%
vs Weaker (12)127.0120.9247.9+6.183%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +7.1+7.1
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: +3.3+3.3Q1: -1.0-1.0Q2Q2: +2.5+2.5Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q3: +0.5+0.5Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +7.1+7.1
Miami HeatMilwaukee Bucks
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
W
54-46
54
46
+8
A09/11
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
W
63-52
63
52
+11
A12/11
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
L
50-53
50
53
-3
A13/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
57-48
57
48
+9
A15/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
60-52
60
52
+8
H17/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
50-40
50
40
+10
A19/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
65-53
65
53
+12
A21/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#12
W
69-55
69
55
+14
A23/11
NBA
New York Knicks
#5
L
50-51
50
51
-1
A25/11
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
L
53-63
53
63
-10
A25/11
NBA
108.4Avg total
57.1Scored
51.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)54.351.9106.1+2.457%-
Last 30 at home (10)56.551.9108.4+4.670%-
Last 30 away (20)53.151.9105.0+1.350%-
Last 10 (10)57.151.3108.4+5.870%-
Last 5 (5)57.452.4109.8+5.060%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (14)50.852.5103.3-1.736%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)58.053.3111.3+4.770%-
vs Weaker (6)56.248.0104.2+8.283%-
This opponent (Milwaukee Bucks) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Milwaukee BucksLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
60-66
60
66
-6
A10/11
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
L
49-65
49
65
-16
A11/11
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#20
W
59-49
59
49
+10
H14/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
70-47
70
47
+23
A16/11
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
59-57
59
57
+2
A18/11
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
60-58
60
58
+2
H19/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
W
70-65
70
65
+5
A21/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#1
L
53-67
53
67
-14
A23/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#29
L
60-61
60
61
-1
H25/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#27
L
52-68
52
68
-16
H26/11
NBA
119.5Avg total
59.2Scored
60.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.060.3120.3-0.357%-
Last 30 at home (16)60.259.0119.2+1.262%-
Last 30 away (14)59.961.8121.6-1.950%-
Last 10 (10)59.260.3119.5-1.150%-
Last 5 (5)59.063.8122.8-4.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)53.067.0120.0-14.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (17)59.859.4119.1+0.459%-
vs Weaker (12)61.061.1122.1-0.158%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 111.5 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.4 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.4 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws20.7 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.726.2
52.7%
54.4%52.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.012.8
37.6%
36.3%38.4
🏀 Free throws23.720.7
87.3%
78.2%20.7
They take 83.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 34.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Milwaukee Buckstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Milwaukee Bucks: 122.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.4 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.7 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.931.2
59.0%
54.4%62.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.813.9
37.8%
36.3%41.7
🏀 Free throws24.218.5
76.4%
78.2%18.5
They take 89.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 29 Nov 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLWWLWWWWW
Milwaukee Bucks
WWLWWWWWLL
#18
League position
#8
+6.3
Net rating
+6.3
115.1
Offensive rating
119.2
108.8
Defensive rating
112.9
54.2%
Effective FG%
58.0%
54.0%
Opp. effective FG%
52.4%
11.9%
Turnover %
12.4%
22.0%
Off. rebound %
23.9%
0.28
Free-throw rate
0.27
37.6%
3-point %
37.8%
64.4%
Assist %
57.6%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence115.1 · 119.2Defence108.8 · 112.9Shooting54.2% · 58.0%3-point %37.6% · 37.8%Ball care11.9% · 12.4%Off. rebounds22.0% · 23.9%Free throws0.28 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)70% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Milwaukee Bucks
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
Milwaukee Bucks wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/11/23ABrooklyn Nets97-112
25/11/23ANew York Knicks98-100
23/11/23ACleveland Cavaliers129-96
21/11/23AChicago Bulls118-100
19/11/23AChicago Bulls97-102
17/11/23HBrooklyn Nets122-115
15/11/23ACharlotte Hornets111-105
13/11/23ASan Antonio Spurs118-113
12/11/23AAtlanta Hawks117-109
09/11/23AMemphis Grizzlies108-102
DateH/AOpponentScore
26/11/23HPortland Trail Blazers108-102
25/11/23HWashington Wizards131-128
23/11/23ABoston Celtics116-119
21/11/23AWashington Wizards142-129
19/11/23HDallas Mavericks132-125
18/11/23ACharlotte Hornets130-99
16/11/23AToronto Raptors128-112
14/11/23HChicago Bulls118-109
11/11/23AOrlando Magic97-112
10/11/23AIndiana Pacers124-126

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL59%
HomeWLWWW80%
AwayLWWLL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games17512
Win %59%80%50%
Points / game109.8111.8109.0
Allowed / game107.8109.4107.2
Point differential+2.0+2.4+1.8
Avg total217.6221.2216.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+12%0%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (6)67% (3)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Milwaukee Bucks
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW71%
HomeWWWWW89%
AwayLWWWL50%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1798
Win %71%89%50%
Points / game120.4118.8122.1
Allowed / game117.5116.1119.0
Point differential+2.9+2.7+3.1
Avg total237.8234.9241.1
Over main line---
Win by 10+18%0%38%
Close games (≤5 pts) won71% (7)100% (4)33% (3)
Overtime %0%0%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics1713476%115.8107.3+8.5
2 Minnesota Timberwolves1612475%113.4106.4+7.0
3 Philadelphia 76ers1712571%120.5111.8+8.8
4 Orlando Magic1712571%112.6107.4+5.3
5 Milwaukee Bucks1712571%120.4117.5+2.9
6 Oklahoma City Thunder1611569%119.6111.2+8.3
7 Denver Nuggets1812667%113.1108.9+4.1
8 Phoenix Suns1711665%117.1113.2+3.9
9 Dallas Mavericks1610662%119.4118.3+1.1
10 Sacramento Kings159660%115.5115.3+0.2
11 Miami Heat1710759%109.8107.8+2.0
12 Houston Rockets148657%109.6104.4+5.3
13 New York Knicks169756%109.7105.9+3.8
14 Indiana Pacers169756%127.6124.8+2.9
15 Los Angeles Lakers1810856%111.8113.7-1.8
16 Cleveland Cavaliers179853%110.8112.6-1.8
17 Atlanta Hawks168850%123.6121.1+2.4
18 Brooklyn Nets168850%115.3114.6+0.8
19 New Orleans Pelicans189950%112.8112.9-0.1
20 Golden State Warriors178947%114.2114.0+0.2
21 Toronto Raptors178947%111.9112.4-0.5
22 Los Angeles Clippers167944%111.8108.4+3.3
23 Utah Jazz1761135%114.2120.6-6.4
24 Charlotte Hornets1551033%114.1122.2-8.1
25 Portland Trail Blazers1751229%104.8112.5-7.7
26 Chicago Bulls1851328%106.7112.2-5.6
27 Memphis Grizzlies1631319%105.6114.1-8.4
28 Washington Wizards1731418%116.1124.0-7.9
29 San Antonio Spurs1731418%110.5123.4-12.9
30 Detroit Pistons1721512%109.6117.7-8.1
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat22403527124
Milwaukee Bucks31283438131
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.