PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Prediction & Stats

Date: Sat 30 Jan 2027
Tip-off: 20:00
Scheduled
Position#10
Record8-4
FormWWWLL
Points / game111.1
Allowed / game106.9
vs
Form · last 5 games
4.5/10
Below normal
4.5/10
Below normal
Position#13
Record6-4
FormLWWLW
Points / game114.5
Allowed / game113.3
USANBA· Paycom Center
NBA2026-27
Meetings · Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets
30 Jan 2027
OKC v DEN
upcoming
22 Oct 2026
OKC96
DEN84
09 Mar 2026
OKC129
DEN126
27 Feb 2026
OKC127
DEN121
18 May 2025
OKC125
DEN93
13 May 2025
OKC112
DEN105
07 May 2025
OKC149
DEN106
05 May 2025
OKC119
DEN121
10 Mar 2025
OKC127
DEN140
09 Mar 2025
OKC127
DEN103
31 Jan 2024
OKC105
DEN100
29 Oct 2023
OKC95
DEN128
23 Nov 2022
OKC126
DEN131
03 Nov 2022
OKC110
DEN122
09 Jan 2022
OKC95
DEN99
22 Dec 2021
OKC108
DEN94
27 Feb 2021
OKC96
DEN126
03 Aug 2020
OKC113
DEN121
21 Feb 2020
OKC113
DEN101
29 Mar 2019
OKC105
DEN115
24 Nov 2018
OKC98
DEN105
30 Mar 2018
OKC125
DEN126
18 Dec 2017
OKC95
DEN94
12 Apr 2017
OKC105
DEN111
07 Jan 2017
OKC121
DEN106
27 Dec 2015
OKC122
DEN112
01 Nov 2015
OKC117
DEN93
22 Feb 2015
OKC119
DEN94
01 Nov 2014
OKC102
DEN91
24 Mar 2014
OKC117
DEN96
18 Nov 2013
OKC115
DEN113
19 Mar 2013
OKC104
DEN114
16 Jan 2013
OKC117
DEN97
25 Apr 2012
OKC101
DEN106
19 Feb 2012
OKC124
DEN118
27 Apr 2011
OKC100
DEN97
20 Apr 2011
OKC106
DEN89
17 Apr 2011
OKC107
DEN103
08 Apr 2011
OKC104
DEN89
25 Dec 2010
OKC114
DEN106
07 Apr 2010
OKC94
DEN98
29 Jan 2010
OKC101
DEN84
04 Feb 2009
OKC113
DEN114
02 Jan 2009
OKC120
DEN122
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets win
-no forecast
Best oddsnot yet
Implied-
Edge-
Pythia's probabilities appear here once today's forecast has run (it covers the NBA and Europe's top competitions).

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
W
108-101
108
101
+7
97avg 103
H25/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
125-114
125
114
+11
119avg 103
H27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
96-120
96
120
-24
76avg 103
A29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
98-119
98
119
-21
72avg 103
A01/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#16
W
117-112
117
112
+5
95avg 103
A03/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#16
W
124-116
124
116
+8
116avg 103
H05/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
128-97
128
97
+31
117avg 103
A07/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
114-75
114
75
+39
114avg 103
H08/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
103-123
103
123
-20
93avg 103
A11/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
108-118
108
118
-10
94avg 103
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
23-20
20-26
34-30
31-25
33-27
34-26
32-32
26-29
30-33
29-32
22-29
15-26
26-35
25-27
24-30
23-27
26-30
33-18
31-36
27-28
37-20
23-24
28-30
36-42
35-28
36-21
27-27
30-21
25-19
32-17
33-23
24-16
27-26
32-33
21-38
23-26
32-28
18-28
35-32
23-30
221.6Avg total
112.1Scored
109.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (12)111.1106.9218.0+4.267%
Season at home (5)113.498.0211.4+15.4100%
Season away (7)109.4113.3222.7-3.943%
Last 10 (10)112.1109.5221.6+2.660%
Last 5 (5)115.4105.8221.2+9.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)107.0111.5218.5-4.550%
vs Similar ◀ (14)109.6111.4221.0-1.750%
vs Weaker (14)118.2107.1225.3+11.186%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
L
84-96
84
96
-12
62avg 114
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
141-135 OT
141
135
+6
113avg 114
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
114-134
114
134
-20
92avg 114
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
104-91
104
91
+13
93avg 114
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
127-120
127
120
+7
120avg 114
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
110-118
110
118
-8
96avg 114
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#17
W
128-109
128
109
+19
134avg 114
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 114
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
100-110
100
110
-10
87avg 114
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
123-118
123
118
+5
114avg 114
A12/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-24
21-20
16-26
20-26
24-38
33-35
32-35
37-18
32-28
24-32
28-40
30-34
37-18
20-27
22-28
25-18
32-37
39-30
32-26
24-27
31-19
35-39
21-27
23-33
33-35
31-32
39-15
25-27
27-19
37-22
26-37
24-24
24-32
16-22
28-23
32-33
35-24
30-28
29-38
29-28
227.8Avg total
114.5Scored
113.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (10)114.5113.3227.8+1.260%
Season at home (4)123.2124.0247.2-0.850%
Season away (6)108.7106.2214.8+2.567%
Last 10 (10)114.5113.3227.8+1.260%
Last 5 (5)115.0111.4226.4+3.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)114.8117.4232.2-2.640%
vs Similar ◀ (13)113.9113.0226.9+0.962%
vs Weaker (12)128.2117.0245.2+11.292%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +0.1+0.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: +2.8+2.8Q1: +2.8+2.8Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: -0.1-0.1Q3Q3: -2.0-2.0Q3: -2.2-2.2Q4Q4: -1.2-1.2Q4: +0.1+0.1
Oklahoma City ThunderDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#26
L
43-46
43
46
-3
H25/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
67-53
67
53
+14
H27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#12
L
59-65
59
65
-6
A29/10
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
51-62
51
62
-11
A01/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#16
W
59-48
59
48
+11
A03/11
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#16
W
60-44
60
44
+16
H05/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
71-49
71
49
+22
A07/11
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
57-36
57
36
+21
H08/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
D
59-59
59
59
+0
A11/11
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
L
50-56
50
56
-6
A12/11
NBA
109.4Avg total
57.6Scored
51.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.553.4110.9+4.153%-
Last 30 at home (14)57.151.8108.9+5.357%-
Last 30 away (16)57.954.8112.6+3.150%-
Last 10 (10)57.651.8109.4+5.850%-
Last 5 (5)59.448.8108.2+10.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (2)58.053.0111.0+5.050%-
vs Similar ◀ (14)55.653.3108.9+2.443%-
vs Weaker (14)59.353.5112.8+5.864%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Oklahoma City Thunder
#10
W
48-44
48
44
+4
A23/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
L
57-73
57
73
-16
H25/10
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#9
L
56-60
56
60
-4
H27/10
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#24
W
57-45
57
45
+12
A29/10
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#19
W
71-67
71
67
+4
A31/10
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#7
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H03/11
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#17
L
64-67
64
67
-3
H05/11
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#22
W
64-41
64
41
+23
A07/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
L
40-54
40
54
-14
A10/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#11
W
65-52
65
52
+13
A12/11
NBA
114.9Avg total
58.8Scored
56.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.457.9118.3+2.553%-
Last 30 at home (17)62.361.1123.4+1.241%-
Last 30 away (13)57.953.7111.6+4.269%-
Last 10 (10)58.856.1114.9+2.760%-
Last 5 (5)59.854.4114.2+5.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (5)57.255.0112.2+2.260%-
vs Similar ◀ (13)58.856.5115.3+2.254%-
vs Weaker (12)63.560.5124.0+3.050%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 105.9 points a game scored
🏀🏀52%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.0 pts a game · 52% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.8 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.1 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.527.5
48.7%
54.0%55.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.710.6
32.4%
35.1%31.8
🏀 Free throws22.519.1
84.9%
77.1%19.1
They take 89.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.7 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀27%
🏀17%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.4 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.3 pts a game · 27% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.6 pts a game · 17% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
47%
35%
18%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.031.2
56.7%
54.0%62.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.410.1
32.2%
35.1%30.3
🏀 Free throws24.919.6
78.7%
77.1%19.6
They take 86.4 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 43%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 30 Jan 2027 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oklahoma City Thunder
LLWWWWLLWW
Denver Nuggets
WLWWLWWLWL
#10
League position
#13
-3.0
Net rating
-1.6
101.5
Offensive rating
110.1
104.5
Defensive rating
111.6
48.7%
Effective FG%
53.6%
50.6%
Opp. effective FG%
54.0%
13.5%
Turnover %
11.1%
25.5%
Off. rebound %
16.8%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.29
32.4%
3-point %
32.2%
59.1%
Assist %
65.9%
60%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence101.5 · 110.1Defence104.5 · 111.6Shooting48.7% · 53.6%3-point %32.4% · 32.2%Ball care13.5% · 11.1%Off. rebounds25.5% · 16.8%Free throws0.25 · 0.29Form (last 10/10)60% · 60%
■ Oklahoma City Thunder   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26APortland Trail Blazers108-118
11/11/26APortland Trail Blazers103-123
08/11/26HWashington Wizards114-75
07/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies128-97
05/11/26HCleveland Cavaliers124-116
03/11/26ACleveland Cavaliers117-112
01/11/26AHouston Rockets98-119
29/10/26ADallas Mavericks96-120
27/10/26HPhoenix Suns125-114
25/10/26HLos Angeles Clippers108-101
DateH/AOpponentScore
12/11/26AMemphis Grizzlies123-118
10/11/26AHouston Rockets100-110
07/11/26AIndiana Pacers114-102
05/11/26HToronto Raptors128-109
03/11/26HPortland Trail Blazers110-118
31/10/26APhoenix Suns127-120
29/10/26ANew Orleans Pelicans104-91
27/10/26HGolden State Warriors114-134
25/10/26HNew Orleans Pelicans141-135 OT
23/10/26AOklahoma City Thunder84-96

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL67%
HomeWWWWW100%
AwayLWWLL43%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1257
Win %67%100%43%
Points / game111.1113.4109.4
Allowed / game106.998.0113.3
Point differential+4.2+15.4-3.9
Avg total218.0211.4222.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+42%60%29%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2026-27
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW60%
HomeWLLW50%
AwayWWWLW67%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1046
Win %60%50%67%
Points / game114.5123.2108.7
Allowed / game113.3124.0106.2
Point differential+1.2-0.8+2.5
Avg total227.8247.2214.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+30%25%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)-100% (1)
Overtime %10%25%0%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Los Angeles Lakers1311285%122.2114.2+7.9
2 Boston Celtics1210283%114.2103.1+11.2
3 San Antonio Spurs1210283%119.2108.0+11.2
4 Houston Rockets129375%115.4106.5+8.9
5 Philadelphia 76ers129375%110.2109.2+1.0
6 Minnesota Timberwolves118373%118.1107.0+11.1
7 Portland Trail Blazers118373%119.5112.3+7.3
8 Detroit Pistons107370%112.7104.6+8.1
9 Golden State Warriors128467%119.3111.5+7.8
10 Oklahoma City Thunder128467%111.1106.9+4.2
11 Memphis Grizzlies117464%117.9111.9+6.0
12 Dallas Mavericks117464%114.9110.3+4.6
13 Denver Nuggets106460%114.5113.3+1.2
14 Atlanta Hawks127558%118.2116.2+2.1
15 New York Knicks116555%110.3103.5+6.8
16 Cleveland Cavaliers126650%116.4114.3+2.1
17 Toronto Raptors115645%114.5111.9+2.5
18 Miami Heat115645%115.7120.0-4.3
19 Phoenix Suns104640%112.8118.1-5.3
20 Orlando Magic114736%108.5114.0-5.5
21 Charlotte Hornets114736%98.8110.4-11.5
22 Indiana Pacers124833%111.6114.0-2.4
23 Washington Wizards124833%107.5113.4-5.9
24 New Orleans Pelicans124833%116.9124.2-7.3
25 Brooklyn Nets113827%110.2115.3-5.1
26 Los Angeles Clippers102820%112.2118.1-5.9
27 Chicago Bulls101910%113.3128.8-15.5
28 Sacramento Kings111109%108.3121.0-12.7
29 Utah Jazz121118%106.6118.1-11.5
30 Milwaukee Bucks121118%106.8121.3-14.6
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.