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Oklahoma City Thunder vs Denver Nuggets Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 06 May 2025
Tip-off: 01:30
Final 119-121
27-26 33-24 30-35 29-36
Position#1
Record70-14
FormWWWWW
Points / game120.6
Allowed / game107.5
vs
Position#9
Record54-35
FormLWWLW
Points / game119.7
Allowed / game116.2
USANBANBA - Quarter-finals· Paycom Center
NBA2024-25
Meetings · Oklahoma City Thunder v Denver Nuggets
30 Jan 2027
OKC v DEN
upcoming
22 Oct 2026
OKC96
DEN84
09 Mar 2026
OKC129
DEN126
27 Feb 2026
OKC127
DEN121
18 May 2025
OKC125
DEN93
13 May 2025
OKC112
DEN105
07 May 2025
OKC149
DEN106
05 May 2025
OKC119
DEN121
10 Mar 2025
OKC127
DEN140
09 Mar 2025
OKC127
DEN103
31 Jan 2024
OKC105
DEN100
29 Oct 2023
OKC95
DEN128
23 Nov 2022
OKC126
DEN131
03 Nov 2022
OKC110
DEN122
09 Jan 2022
OKC95
DEN99
22 Dec 2021
OKC108
DEN94
27 Feb 2021
OKC96
DEN126
03 Aug 2020
OKC113
DEN121
21 Feb 2020
OKC113
DEN101
29 Mar 2019
OKC105
DEN115
24 Nov 2018
OKC98
DEN105
30 Mar 2018
OKC125
DEN126
18 Dec 2017
OKC95
DEN94
12 Apr 2017
OKC105
DEN111
07 Jan 2017
OKC121
DEN106
27 Dec 2015
OKC122
DEN112
01 Nov 2015
OKC117
DEN93
22 Feb 2015
OKC119
DEN94
01 Nov 2014
OKC102
DEN91
24 Mar 2014
OKC117
DEN96
18 Nov 2013
OKC115
DEN113
19 Mar 2013
OKC104
DEN114
16 Jan 2013
OKC117
DEN97
25 Apr 2012
OKC101
DEN106
19 Feb 2012
OKC124
DEN118
27 Apr 2011
OKC100
DEN97
20 Apr 2011
OKC106
DEN89
17 Apr 2011
OKC107
DEN103
08 Apr 2011
OKC104
DEN89
25 Dec 2010
OKC114
DEN106
07 Apr 2010
OKC94
DEN98
29 Jan 2010
OKC101
DEN84
04 Feb 2009
OKC113
DEN114
02 Jan 2009
OKC120
DEN122
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Oklahoma City Thunder winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Oklahoma City ThunderUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormThunder
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#4
L
111-125
111
125
-14
98avg 111
A05/04
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
99-126
99
126
-27
81avg 111
H06/04
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
136-120
136
120
+16
122avg 111
H09/04
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
W
125-112
125
112
+13
120avg 111
A10/04
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
145-111
145
111
+34
148avg 111
A12/04
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
115-100
115
100
+15
100avg 111
A13/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
131-80
131
80
+51
134avg 111
H20/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
118-99
118
99
+19
104avg 111
H22/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
114-108
114
108
+6
104avg 111
A25/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
117-115
117
115
+2
97avg 111
A26/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-35
25-34
32-27
26-29
32-42
24-36
21-25
22-23
43-43
37-29
17-26
39-22
29-39
33-28
43-26
20-19
46-34
27-24
34-28
38-25
38-19
26-30
26-23
25-28
32-20
36-16
44-27
19-17
32-17
38-35
20-27
28-20
29-40
22-37
36-18
27-13
34-31
26-28
28-26
29-30
230.7Avg total
121.1Scored
109.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (84)120.6107.5228.1+13.183%
Season at home (42)123.0106.9229.9+16.286%
Season away (42)118.2108.1226.3+10.181%
Last 10 (10)121.1109.6230.7+11.580%
Last 5 (5)119.0100.4219.4+18.6100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)118.0112.0230.0+6.0100%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)124.8111.1235.9+13.886%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
124-116
124
116
+8
122avg 114
A10/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
117-109
117
109
+8
116avg 114
H12/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
126-111
126
111
+15
124avg 114
A13/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
112-110 OT
112
110
+2
100avg 114
H19/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
102-105
102
105
-3
99avg 114
H22/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
83-117
83
117
-34
72avg 114
A25/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
101-99
101
99
+2
97avg 114
A26/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
131-115
131
115
+16
127avg 114
H30/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
105-111
105
111
-6
99avg 114
A02/05
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
120-101
120
101
+19
113avg 114
H03/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
33-25
33-33
27-25
31-33
28-35
25-24
39-36
25-14
36-23
29-29
37-19
24-40
27-35
22-18
23-22
26-23
31-25
21-30
24-23
26-27
28-35
19-30
23-25
13-27
27-22
23-26
35-17
16-34
35-23
32-36
32-24
32-32
28-25
29-33
22-32
26-21
21-26
37-21
35-19
27-35
221.5Avg total
112.1Scored
109.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (89)119.7116.2235.9+3.561%
Season at home (45)122.2116.2238.4+6.064%
Season away (44)117.2116.2233.4+1.157%
Last 10 (10)112.1109.4221.5+2.770%
Last 5 (5)108.0108.6216.6-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)115.3121.3236.7-6.033%
vs Similar (21)115.5114.3229.8+1.262%
vs Weaker (6)122.5121.7244.2+0.833%
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: +5.5+5.5Q4Q4: +4.7+4.7Q4: -4.0-4.0
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +2.3+2.3Q1: +2.0+2.0Q2Q2: -0.3-0.3Q2: -1.0-1.0Q3Q3: +4.8+4.8Q3: +5.5+5.5Q4Q4: +4.7+4.7Q4: -4.0-4.0
Oklahoma City ThunderDenver Nuggets
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Oklahoma City ThunderLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Houston Rockets
#4
L
53-69
53
69
-16
A05/04
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
L
56-78
56
78
-22
H06/04
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#10
W
80-72
80
72
+8
H09/04
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#22
L
62-67
62
67
-5
A10/04
NBA
Utah Jazz
#30
W
73-58
73
58
+15
A12/04
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#27
W
64-49
64
49
+15
A13/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
68-36
68
36
+32
H20/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
70-52
70
52
+18
H22/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
L
51-77
51
77
-26
A25/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
W
60-59
60
59
+1
A26/04
NBA
125.4Avg total
63.7Scored
61.7Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)63.957.6121.5+6.380%-
Last 30 at home (15)66.555.3121.7+11.293%-
Last 30 away (15)61.359.9121.3+1.467%-
Last 10 (10)63.761.7125.4+2.060%-
Last 5 (5)62.654.6117.2+8.080%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)63.060.0123.0+3.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)63.957.5121.4+6.479%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Sacramento Kings
#16
W
66-58
66
58
+8
A10/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#12
L
53-59
53
59
-6
H12/04
NBA
Houston Rockets
#4
W
65-52
65
52
+13
A13/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
49-53
49
53
-4
H19/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
52-55
52
55
-3
H22/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
47-65
47
65
-18
A25/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
50-48
50
48
+2
A26/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
67-59
67
59
+8
H30/04
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A02/05
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#8
W
58-47
58
47
+11
H03/05
NBA
111.8Avg total
56.4Scored
55.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)59.359.2118.5+0.250%-
Last 30 at home (16)59.758.5118.2+1.256%-
Last 30 away (14)58.959.9118.9-1.043%-
Last 10 (10)56.455.4111.8+1.050%-
Last 5 (5)55.855.4111.2+0.460%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)58.365.0123.3-6.70%-
vs Similar (21)58.658.5117.1+0.052%-
vs Weaker (6)62.558.5121.0+4.067%-
This opponent (Oklahoma City Thunder) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Oklahoma City Thundertheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Oklahoma City Thunder: 121.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.2 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.0 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.531.1
57.1%
54.3%62.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.514.0
34.6%
35.9%42.0
🏀 Free throws21.316.9
79.3%
77.8%16.9
They take 95.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 40.5 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 112.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.1 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.4 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.4 points a game
49%
36%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.231.3
54.7%
54.3%62.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.010.7
36.9%
35.9%32.1
🏀 Free throws23.117.4
75.3%
77.8%17.4
They take 86.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 06 May 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Oklahoma City Thunder
WWWWWWWWLL
Denver Nuggets
WLWWLLWWWW
#1
League position
#9
+11.2
Net rating
+2.8
117.5
Offensive rating
115.9
106.3
Defensive rating
113.1
54.8%
Effective FG%
54.9%
51.5%
Opp. effective FG%
54.9%
9.6%
Turnover %
12.4%
24.9%
Off. rebound %
27.5%
0.22
Free-throw rate
0.27
34.6%
3-point %
36.9%
56.5%
Assist %
62.4%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence117.5 · 115.9Defence106.3 · 113.1Shooting54.8% · 54.9%3-point %34.6% · 36.9%Ball care9.6% · 12.4%Off. rebounds24.9% · 27.5%Free throws0.22 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Oklahoma City Thunder   ■ Denver Nuggets
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
26/04/25AMemphis Grizzlies117-115
25/04/25AMemphis Grizzlies114-108
22/04/25HMemphis Grizzlies118-99
20/04/25HMemphis Grizzlies131-80
13/04/25ANew Orleans Pelicans115-100
12/04/25AUtah Jazz145-111
10/04/25APhoenix Suns125-112
09/04/25HLos Angeles Lakers136-120
06/04/25HLos Angeles Lakers99-126
05/04/25AHouston Rockets111-125
DateH/AOpponentScore
03/05/25HLos Angeles Clippers120-101
02/05/25ALos Angeles Clippers105-111
30/04/25HLos Angeles Clippers131-115
26/04/25ALos Angeles Clippers101-99
25/04/25ALos Angeles Clippers83-117
22/04/25HLos Angeles Clippers102-105
19/04/25HLos Angeles Clippers112-110 OT
13/04/25AHouston Rockets126-111
12/04/25HMemphis Grizzlies117-109
10/04/25ASacramento Kings124-116

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW83%
HomeWLWWW86%
AwayWWWWW81%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games844242
Win %83%86%81%
Points / game120.6123.0118.2
Allowed / game107.5106.9108.1
Point differential+13.1+16.2+10.1
Avg total228.1229.9226.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+64%76%52%
Close games (≤5 pts) won43% (7)0% (2)60% (5)
Overtime %1%2%0%
Denver Nuggets
NBA 2024-25
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLW61%
HomeWWLWW64%
AwayWWLWL57%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games894544
Win %61%64%57%
Points / game119.7122.2117.2
Allowed / game116.2116.2116.2
Point differential+3.5+6.0+1.1
Avg total235.9238.4233.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%42%32%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (24)46% (13)73% (11)
Overtime %8%7%9%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder84701483%120.6107.5+13.1
2 Cleveland Cavaliers87681978%122.0111.7+10.3
3 Boston Celtics88652374%115.6106.4+9.2
4 New York Knicks88563264%115.3111.3+4.0
5 Indiana Pacers88553362%117.4114.8+2.6
6 Houston Rockets87543362%113.9109.5+4.4
7 Minnesota Timberwolves87533461%113.9108.8+5.1
8 Denver Nuggets89543561%119.7116.2+3.5
9 Los Angeles Clippers89533660%112.5108.2+4.3
10 Golden State Warriors89533660%113.4110.3+3.1
11 Los Angeles Lakers87513659%112.6111.9+0.7
12 Memphis Grizzlies88493956%120.7116.9+3.7
13 Milwaukee Bucks85473855%115.3113.5+1.8
14 Detroit Pistons88464252%114.9113.2+1.7
15 Orlando Magic87434449%104.9105.4-0.5
16 Sacramento Kings83404348%115.6115.3+0.3
17 Dallas Mavericks83404348%114.3115.3-1.0
18 Atlanta Hawks82394348%118.2119.7-1.5
19 Chicago Bulls83394447%117.5119.2-1.8
20 Miami Heat88394944%110.0110.6-0.5
21 Portland Trail Blazers82364644%110.9113.9-3.0
22 Phoenix Suns82364644%113.6116.6-3.0
23 San Antonio Spurs82344841%113.9116.7-2.8
24 Toronto Raptors82305237%110.9115.2-4.3
25 Brooklyn Nets82265632%105.1112.2-7.1
26 Philadelphia 76ers82245829%109.6115.8-6.2
27 New Orleans Pelicans82216126%109.8119.3-9.4
28 Charlotte Hornets82196323%105.1114.2-9.1
29 Washington Wizards82186422%108.0120.4-12.4
30 Utah Jazz82176521%111.9121.2-9.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Oklahoma City Thunder27333029119
Denver Nuggets26243536121
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