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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Tue 09 Nov 2021
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 113-96
30-25 34-24 27-21 22-26
Position#11
Record5-4
FormWWLLW
Points / game100.7
Allowed / game98.8
vs
Position#4
Record7-2
FormWWWLW
Points / game111.7
Allowed / game100.2
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2021-22
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat
14 Mar 2027
DEN v MIA
upcoming
05 Nov 2025
DEN122
MIA112
08 Nov 2024
DEN135
MIA122
29 Feb 2024
DEN103
MIA97
12 Jun 2023
DEN94
MIA89
04 Jun 2023
DEN108
MIA111
01 Jun 2023
DEN104
MIA93
30 Dec 2022
DEN124
MIA119
08 Nov 2021
DEN113
MIA96
14 Apr 2021
DEN123
MIA106
01 Aug 2020
DEN105
MIA125
05 Nov 2019
DEN109
MIA89
11 Feb 2019
DEN103
MIA87
03 Nov 2017
DEN95
MIA94
30 Nov 2016
DEN98
MIA106
15 Jan 2016
DEN95
MIA98
10 Dec 2014
DEN102
MIA82
30 Dec 2013
DEN94
MIA97
15 Nov 2012
DEN93
MIA98
13 Jan 2012
DEN117
MIA104
13 Jan 2011
DEN130
MIA102
03 Dec 2009
DEN114
MIA96
07 Jan 2009
DEN108
MIA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
118-125
118
125
-7
98avg 107
H14/06
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#1
W
110-98
110
98
+12
108avg 107
A21/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
102-96
102
96
+6
97avg 107
H23/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#14
L
87-99
87
99
-12
77avg 107
H26/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
110-122
110
122
-12
96avg 107
A27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#7
W
106-75
106
75
+31
109avg 107
H30/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
W
93-91
93
91
+2
85avg 107
A31/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
97-106
97
106
-9
88avg 107
A02/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
106-108
106
108
-2
98avg 107
A04/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
W
95-94
95
94
+1
82avg 107
H06/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
22-28
33-35
28-33
35-29
26-20
25-38
34-24
25-16
26-22
27-28
26-20
23-26
24-29
22-21
24-25
17-24
31-35
33-31
26-25
20-31
29-21
25-23
33-12
19-19
23-32
20-15
26-26
24-18
26-31
32-29
15-22
24-24
19-37
36-19
28-22
23-30
26-27
20-20
26-24
23-23
203.8Avg total
102.4Scored
101.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)100.798.8199.4+1.956%
Season at home (4)97.591.0188.5+6.575%
Season away (5)103.2105.0208.2-1.840%
Last 10 (10)102.4101.4203.8+1.050%
Last 5 (5)99.494.8194.2+4.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)110.098.0208.0+12.0100%
vs Similar ◀ (23)109.4112.1221.5-2.739%
vs Weaker (6)110.8103.8214.7+7.0100%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
L
103-120
103
120
-17
92avg 102
H29/05
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
W
137-95
137
95
+42
134avg 102
H22/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
L
91-102 OT
91
102
-11
81avg 102
A23/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#29
W
107-90
107
90
+17
103avg 102
H25/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#16
W
106-93
106
93
+13
98avg 102
A27/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
114-99
114
99
+15
114avg 102
H29/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
W
129-103
129
103
+26
131avg 102
A31/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#7
W
125-110
125
110
+15
122avg 102
A02/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
78-95
78
95
-17
65avg 102
H04/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
118-115
118
115
+3
120avg 102
H06/11
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-22
38-35
21-34
18-29
40-17
32-26
33-26
32-26
24-28
22-28
17-8
23-22
27-15
30-29
24-26
26-20
29-22
20-29
32-23
25-19
33-22
31-24
20-29
30-24
38-22
29-32
35-25
27-24
24-30
46-32
29-26
26-22
24-18
9-33
24-24
21-20
27-24
28-28
32-26
31-37
213.0Avg total
110.8Scored
102.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (9)111.7100.2211.9+11.478%
Season at home (5)110.898.8209.6+12.080%
Season away (4)112.8102.0214.8+10.875%
Last 10 (10)110.8102.2213.0+8.670%
Last 5 (5)112.8104.4217.2+8.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)102.1113.9216.0-11.729%
vs Similar ◀ (16)115.0108.0223.0+7.075%
vs Weaker (7)111.6102.9214.4+8.771%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: +7.2+7.2Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +3.3+3.3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: +1.6+1.6
-9-4+0+4+9Q1Q1: -3.0-3.0Q1: +7.2+7.2Q2Q2: +1.4+1.4Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +3.3+3.3Q3: +2.0+2.0Q4Q4: -0.7-0.7Q4: +1.6+1.6
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
55-63
55
63
-8
H14/06
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#1
L
51-58
51
58
-7
A21/10
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
53-50
53
50
+3
H23/10
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#14
L
46-50
46
50
-4
H26/10
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
L
64-66
64
66
-2
A27/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#7
W
54-44
54
44
+10
H30/10
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#12
L
43-47
43
47
-4
A31/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
58-60
58
60
-2
A02/11
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
L
55-56
55
56
-1
A04/11
NBA
Houston Rockets
#30
L
46-47
46
47
-1
H06/11
NBA
106.6Avg total
52.5Scored
54.1Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.056.0113.0+1.053%-
Last 30 at home (13)58.653.9112.5+4.769%-
Last 30 away (17)55.857.5113.3-1.841%-
Last 10 (10)52.554.1106.6-1.620%-
Last 5 (5)51.250.8102.0+0.420%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)51.058.0109.0-7.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (23)57.056.6113.6+0.448%-
vs Weaker (6)58.053.3111.3+4.783%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
W
64-57
64
57
+7
H29/05
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#5
W
72-43
72
43
+29
H22/10
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#26
L
46-56
46
56
-10
A23/10
NBA
Orlando Magic
#29
W
57-44
57
44
+13
H25/10
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#16
L
49-51
49
51
-2
A27/10
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#15
W
64-46
64
46
+18
H29/10
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#3
W
67-54
67
54
+13
A31/10
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#7
W
70-62
70
62
+8
A02/11
NBA
Boston Celtics
#6
L
33-51
33
51
-18
H04/11
NBA
Utah Jazz
#9
W
55-52
55
52
+3
H06/11
NBA
109.3Avg total
57.7Scored
51.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.054.5112.5+3.560%-
Last 30 at home (15)56.150.8106.9+5.373%-
Last 30 away (15)59.958.3118.2+1.747%-
Last 10 (10)57.751.6109.3+6.170%-
Last 5 (5)57.853.0110.8+4.880%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (7)53.758.3112.0-4.643%-
vs Similar ◀ (16)59.853.2113.0+6.569%-
vs Weaker (7)58.353.7112.0+4.657%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 102.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀10%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.4 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws10.5 pts a game · 10% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.2 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.530.2
57.5%
53.1%60.4
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.010.5
30.0%
35.3%31.5
🏀 Free throws14.810.5
70.9%
77.4%10.5
They take 87.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 110.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀54%
🏀🏀🏀30%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers60.0 pts a game · 54% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.6 pts a game · 30% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 110.2 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.630.0
53.0%
53.1%60.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.611.2
35.4%
35.3%33.6
🏀 Free throws20.817.2
82.7%
77.4%17.2
They take 88.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 36% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 09 Nov 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WLLWWLLWWL
Miami Heat
WLWWWWWLWL
#11
League position
#4
+1.0
Net rating
+8.6
102.3
Offensive rating
110.5
101.3
Defensive rating
102.0
52.5%
Effective FG%
53.1%
51.4%
Opp. effective FG%
49.4%
15.0%
Turnover %
14.1%
18.9%
Off. rebound %
25.5%
0.17
Free-throw rate
0.24
30.0%
3-point %
35.4%
57.7%
Assist %
60.0%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence102.3 · 110.5Defence101.3 · 102.0Shooting52.5% · 53.1%3-point %30.0% · 35.4%Ball care15.0% · 14.1%Off. rebounds18.9% · 25.5%Free throws0.17 · 0.24Form (last 10/10)50% · 70%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
7
Denver Nuggets wins
3
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/21HHouston Rockets95-94
04/11/21AMemphis Grizzlies106-108
02/11/21AMemphis Grizzlies97-106
31/10/21AMinnesota Timberwolves93-91
30/10/21HDallas Mavericks106-75
27/10/21AUtah Jazz110-122
26/10/21HCleveland Cavaliers87-99
23/10/21HSan Antonio Spurs102-96
21/10/21APhoenix Suns110-98
14/06/21HPhoenix Suns118-125
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
06/11/21HUtah Jazz118-115
04/11/21HBoston Celtics78-95
02/11/21ADallas Mavericks125-110
31/10/21AMemphis Grizzlies129-103
29/10/21HCharlotte Hornets114-99
27/10/21ABrooklyn Nets106-93
25/10/21HOrlando Magic107-90
23/10/21AIndiana Pacers91-102 OT
22/10/21HMilwaukee Bucks137-95
29/05/21HMilwaukee Bucks103-120

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2021-22
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLLW56%
HomeWLWW75%
AwayWLWLL40%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games945
Win %56%75%40%
Points / game100.797.5103.2
Allowed / game98.891.0105.0
Point differential+1.9+6.5-1.8
Avg total199.4188.5208.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+22%25%20%
Close games (≤5 pts) won67% (3)100% (1)50% (2)
Overtime %0%0%0%
Miami Heat
NBA 2021-22
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLW78%
HomeWWWLW80%
AwayLWWW75%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games954
Win %78%80%75%
Points / game111.7110.8112.8
Allowed / game100.298.8102.0
Point differential+11.4+12.0+10.8
Avg total211.9209.6214.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+67%60%75%
Close games (≤5 pts) won100% (1)100% (1)-
Overtime %11%0%25%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Golden State Warriors98189%113.9100.2+13.7
2 Miami Heat97278%111.7100.2+11.4
3 Philadelphia 76ers118373%109.7102.6+7.1
4 Utah Jazz107370%111.7102.6+9.1
5 Chicago Bulls107370%108.9101.9+7.0
6 Washington Wizards107370%110.3105.9+4.4
7 Dallas Mavericks107370%102.4104.7-2.3
8 New York Knicks117464%111.7109.4+2.4
9 Cleveland Cavaliers117464%106.0104.9+1.1
10 Brooklyn Nets117464%105.1104.6+0.5
11 Phoenix Suns85362%110.2109.9+0.4
12 Memphis Grizzlies106460%109.9113.8-3.9
13 Los Angeles Clippers95456%107.0102.6+4.4
14 Denver Nuggets95456%100.798.8+1.9
15 Toronto Raptors116555%104.7101.8+2.9
16 Portland Trail Blazers105550%110.3107.4+2.9
17 Sacramento Kings105550%111.0109.3+1.7
18 Los Angeles Lakers105550%110.1111.3-1.2
19 Charlotte Hornets115645%113.5117.6-4.2
20 Boston Celtics104640%108.8110.2-1.4
21 Milwaukee Bucks104640%106.7108.6-1.9
22 Atlanta Hawks104640%107.8110.0-2.2
23 Indiana Pacers114736%109.2109.5-0.4
24 Minnesota Timberwolves93633%104.0108.1-4.1
25 Oklahoma City Thunder93633%98.1107.4-9.3
26 San Antonio Spurs103730%107.4107.0+0.4
27 Orlando Magic113827%100.5107.8-7.3
28 Detroit Pistons91811%94.9107.2-12.3
29 Houston Rockets101910%103.8111.2-7.4
30 New Orleans Pelicans111109%100.5112.3-11.7
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets30342722113
Miami Heat2524212696
← all games of the day
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