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Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 31 Dec 2022
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 124-119
23-19 37-38 25-33 39-29
Position#2
Record22-12
FormWWWWL
Points / game116.2
Allowed / game114.2
Denver Nuggets 🏆
USA
vs
Miami Heat
USA
Position#10
Record18-17
FormWLLWW
Points / game108.2
Allowed / game108.9
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat
14 Mar 2027
DEN v MIA
upcoming
05 Nov 2025
DEN122
MIA112
08 Nov 2024
DEN135
MIA122
29 Feb 2024
DEN103
MIA97
12 Jun 2023
DEN94
MIA89
04 Jun 2023
DEN108
MIA111
01 Jun 2023
DEN104
MIA93
30 Dec 2022
DEN124
MIA119
08 Nov 2021
DEN113
MIA96
14 Apr 2021
DEN123
MIA106
01 Aug 2020
DEN105
MIA125
05 Nov 2019
DEN109
MIA89
11 Feb 2019
DEN103
MIA87
03 Nov 2017
DEN95
MIA94
30 Nov 2016
DEN98
MIA106
15 Jan 2016
DEN95
MIA98
10 Dec 2014
DEN102
MIA82
30 Dec 2013
DEN94
MIA97
15 Nov 2012
DEN93
MIA98
13 Jan 2012
DEN117
MIA104
13 Jan 2011
DEN130
MIA102
03 Dec 2009
DEN114
MIA96
07 Jan 2009
DEN108
MIA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
W
121-120
121
120
+1
117avg 113
A09/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
W
115-110
115
110
+5
112avg 113
H11/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
141-128
141
128
+13
146avg 113
H15/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
L
108-126
108
126
-18
101avg 113
A17/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
119-115
119
115
+4
116avg 113
H19/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
W
105-91
105
91
+14
98avg 113
H21/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
W
120-107
120
107
+13
119avg 113
H24/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
128-125 OT
128
125
+3
121avg 113
H26/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
W
113-106
113
106
+7
112avg 113
A28/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
L
126-127
126
127
-1
124avg 113
A29/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
30-36
33-28
26-35
32-21
28-26
33-26
31-38
23-20
38-31
34-36
30-28
39-33
32-33
33-31
23-29
20-33
20-25
35-27
39-28
25-35
35-14
20-26
29-31
21-20
32-27
26-37
35-16
27-27
28-24
23-33
30-27
32-29
20-32
27-24
32-27
34-23
40-24
35-38
30-32
21-33
235.1Avg total
119.6Scored
115.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (34)116.2114.2230.4+1.965%
Season at home (15)118.5109.3227.8+9.380%
Season away (19)114.3118.2232.5-3.853%
Last 10 (10)119.6115.5235.1+4.180%
Last 5 (5)118.4111.2229.6+7.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (13)115.4114.8230.2+0.654%
vs Weaker ◀ (17)116.9111.4228.4+5.576%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
115-110
115
110
+5
108avg 101
H09/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
L
111-115
111
115
-4
101avg 101
H10/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
87-82
87
82
+5
80avg 101
A13/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
110-108
110
108
+2
100avg 101
A15/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#28
W
111-108
111
108
+3
97avg 101
A16/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
W
111-101
111
101
+10
105avg 101
A17/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
L
103-113
103
113
-10
95avg 101
H21/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
L
108-111
108
111
-3
93avg 101
H24/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
W
113-110
113
110
+3
98avg 101
H27/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
112-98
112
98
+14
96avg 101
H29/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20-28
36-26
28-33
31-23
29-25
28-34
27-27
27-29
26-19
21-23
20-22
20-18
31-31
33-21
22-32
24-24
29-29
37-23
20-33
25-23
25-28
27-27
28-29
31-17
21-31
36-21
20-36
26-25
28-31
30-25
24-28
26-27
33-31
26-25
34-30
20-24
33-25
28-27
34-26
17-20
213.7Avg total
108.1Scored
105.6Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (35)108.2108.9217.1-0.651%
Season at home (19)110.0109.7219.7+0.358%
Season away (16)106.1107.9214.0-1.844%
Last 10 (10)108.1105.6213.7+2.570%
Last 5 (5)109.4106.6216.0+2.860%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)109.3121.0230.3-11.733%
vs Similar (20)107.1106.9214.0+0.255%
vs Weaker (7)112.1111.0223.1+1.157%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.1+3.1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: +5.0+5.0Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -3.9-3.9Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +1.7+1.7
-6-3+0+3+6Q1Q1: +3.1+3.1Q1: -0.3-0.3Q2Q2: -0.7-0.7Q2: +5.0+5.0Q3Q3: +1.4+1.4Q3: -3.9-3.9Q4Q4: +0.0+0.0Q4: +1.7+1.7
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
L
63-64
63
64
-1
A09/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#22
W
61-52
61
52
+9
H11/12
NBA
Washington Wizards
#23
W
72-67
72
67
+5
H15/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
65-64
65
64
+1
A17/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#27
W
55-52
55
52
+3
H19/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#5
W
55-40
55
40
+15
H21/12
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#26
L
58-64
58
64
-6
H24/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
51-57
51
57
-6
H26/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
L
47-56
47
56
-9
A28/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#7
W
75-62
75
62
+13
A29/12
NBA
118.0Avg total
60.2Scored
57.8Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.458.2118.6+2.353%-
Last 30 at home (14)60.955.6116.5+5.257%-
Last 30 away (16)60.160.4120.4-0.350%-
Last 10 (10)60.257.8118.0+2.460%-
Last 5 (5)57.255.8113.0+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (13)59.356.5115.8+2.854%-
vs Weaker ◀ (17)61.359.4120.7+1.953%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Los Angeles Clippers
#14
W
56-54
56
54
+2
H09/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
L
57-59
57
59
-2
H10/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
47-42
47
42
+5
A13/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#20
W
64-52
64
52
+12
A15/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#28
W
66-52
66
52
+14
A16/12
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#29
L
52-55
52
55
-3
A17/12
NBA
Chicago Bulls
#19
W
57-52
57
52
+5
H21/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#24
W
58-56
58
56
+2
H24/12
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#17
W
59-56
59
56
+3
H27/12
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
61-52
61
52
+9
H29/12
NBA
110.7Avg total
57.7Scored
53.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.655.5112.1+1.060%-
Last 30 at home (15)57.253.6110.8+3.680%-
Last 30 away (15)55.957.5113.4-1.540%-
Last 10 (10)57.753.0110.7+4.780%-
Last 5 (5)57.454.2111.6+3.280%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)53.763.0116.7-9.30%-
vs Similar (20)56.855.1111.9+1.770%-
vs Weaker (7)57.153.6110.7+3.657%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 119.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀59%
🏀🏀🏀26%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers70.0 pts a game · 59% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers30.6 pts a game · 26% of the points
🏀 Free throws19.0 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers59.035.0
59.3%
54.5%70.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers28.010.2
36.4%
35.8%30.6
🏀 Free throws25.919.0
73.4%
78.1%19.0
They take 87.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 28.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 32% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 108.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀12%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.6 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.1 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws13.4 pts a game · 12% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)		League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.626.8
55.1%
54.5%53.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.413.7
34.8%
35.8%41.1
🏀 Free throws17.613.4
76.1%
78.1%13.4
They take 88.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 31 Dec 2022 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWWWWWLWWW
Miami Heat
WWLLWWWWLW
#2
League position
#10
+4.0
Net rating
+2.6
116.9
Offensive rating
110.8
112.9
Defensive rating
108.2
57.8%
Effective FG%
53.8%
55.4%
Opp. effective FG%
55.8%
13.9%
Turnover %
11.1%
24.8%
Off. rebound %
21.3%
0.30
Free-throw rate
0.20
36.4%
3-point %
34.8%
65.9%
Assist %
59.3%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence116.9 · 110.8Defence112.9 · 108.2Shooting57.8% · 53.8%3-point %36.4% · 34.8%Ball care13.9% · 11.1%Off. rebounds24.8% · 21.3%Free throws0.30 · 0.20Form (last 10/10)80% · 70%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
8
Denver Nuggets wins
2
Miami Heat wins
DateGameScore
30/11/21Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets111-120
09/11/21Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat113-96
15/04/21Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat123-106
28/01/21Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets82-109
01/08/20Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat105-125
06/11/19Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat109-89
12/02/19Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat103-87
09/01/19Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets99-103
19/03/18Miami Heat v Denver Nuggets149-141 OT
04/11/17Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat95-94
Denver Nuggetslast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/22ASacramento Kings126-127
28/12/22ASacramento Kings113-106
26/12/22HPhoenix Suns128-125 OT
24/12/22HPortland Trail Blazers120-107
21/12/22HMemphis Grizzlies105-91
19/12/22HCharlotte Hornets119-115
17/12/22ALos Angeles Lakers108-126
15/12/22HWashington Wizards141-128
11/12/22HUtah Jazz115-110
09/12/22APortland Trail Blazers121-120
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
29/12/22HLos Angeles Lakers112-98
27/12/22HMinnesota Timberwolves113-110
24/12/22HIndiana Pacers108-111
21/12/22HChicago Bulls103-113
17/12/22ASan Antonio Spurs111-101
16/12/22AHouston Rockets111-108
15/12/22AOklahoma City Thunder110-108
13/12/22AIndiana Pacers87-82
10/12/22HSan Antonio Spurs111-115
09/12/22HLos Angeles Clippers115-110

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWL65%
HomeWWWWW80%
AwayLWLWL53%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games341519
Win %65%80%53%
Points / game116.2118.5114.3
Allowed / game114.2109.3118.2
Point differential+1.9+9.3-3.8
Avg total230.4227.8232.5
Over main line---
Win by 10+32%53%16%
Close games (≤5 pts) won69% (13)57% (7)83% (6)
Overtime %6%7%5%
Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLWW51%
HomeLLLWW58%
AwayLWWWW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games351916
Win %51%58%44%
Points / game108.2110.0106.1
Allowed / game108.9109.7107.9
Point differential-0.6+0.3-1.8
Avg total217.1219.7214.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+11%11%12%
Close games (≤5 pts) won65% (17)70% (10)57% (7)
Overtime %9%5%12%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics36261072%118.8112.1+6.8
2 New Orleans Pelicans35231266%118.1112.7+5.4
3 Brooklyn Nets35231266%114.3111.2+3.1
4 Milwaukee Bucks35231266%112.9110.5+2.5
5 Denver Nuggets34221265%116.2114.2+1.9
6 Memphis Grizzlies34211362%115.4111.5+3.9
7 Cleveland Cavaliers36221461%111.5106.3+5.2
8 Philadelphia 76ers34201459%111.8108.5+3.3
9 Los Angeles Clippers37211657%109.2108.8+0.4
10 Dallas Mavericks36201656%112.2110.0+2.3
11 Sacramento Kings33181555%118.0116.4+1.6
12 Phoenix Suns37201754%115.1112.0+3.1
13 Portland Trail Blazers34181653%112.3112.0+0.3
14 Indiana Pacers36191753%114.9115.4-0.5
15 Miami Heat35181751%108.2108.9-0.6
16 Utah Jazz37191851%116.9116.1+0.8
17 New York Knicks36181850%114.6112.7+1.9
18 Golden State Warriors36181850%116.4117.0-0.6
19 Atlanta Hawks36171947%114.5115.5-1.0
20 Chicago Bulls35161946%114.1115.1-1.0
21 Toronto Raptors36162044%111.3111.2+0.1
22 Minnesota Timberwolves36162044%114.7115.9-1.2
23 Washington Wizards37162143%111.9112.9-1.0
24 Oklahoma City Thunder35152043%115.7116.9-1.1
25 Los Angeles Lakers36152142%116.0117.7-1.7
26 Orlando Magic37132435%109.8113.9-4.2
27 San Antonio Spurs35122334%111.5120.3-8.9
28 Houston Rockets35102529%110.0116.1-6.0
29 Charlotte Hornets36102628%111.4117.9-6.4
30 Detroit Pistons3892924%111.6118.9-7.3
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets23372539124
Miami Heat19383329119
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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