PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 05 Jun 2023
Tip-off: 00:00
Final 108-111
23-26 34-25 26-24 25-36
Position#2
Record66-32
FormWWWWW
Points / game115.8
Allowed / game111.6
vs
Position#10
Record57-46
FormLLLWL
Points / game109.6
Allowed / game109.2
USANBANBA - Final· Ball Arena
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat
14 Mar 2027
DEN v MIA
upcoming
05 Nov 2025
DEN122
MIA112
08 Nov 2024
DEN135
MIA122
29 Feb 2024
DEN103
MIA97
12 Jun 2023
DEN94
MIA89
04 Jun 2023
DEN108
MIA111
01 Jun 2023
DEN104
MIA93
30 Dec 2022
DEN124
MIA119
08 Nov 2021
DEN113
MIA96
14 Apr 2021
DEN123
MIA106
01 Aug 2020
DEN105
MIA125
05 Nov 2019
DEN109
MIA89
11 Feb 2019
DEN103
MIA87
03 Nov 2017
DEN95
MIA94
30 Nov 2016
DEN98
MIA106
15 Jan 2016
DEN95
MIA98
10 Dec 2014
DEN102
MIA82
30 Dec 2013
DEN94
MIA97
15 Nov 2012
DEN93
MIA98
13 Jan 2012
DEN117
MIA104
13 Jan 2011
DEN130
MIA102
03 Dec 2009
DEN114
MIA96
07 Jan 2009
DEN108
MIA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
97-87
97
87
+10
91avg 112
H02/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
114-121
114
121
-7
106avg 112
A06/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
124-129
124
129
-5
115avg 112
A08/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
118-102
118
102
+16
120avg 112
H10/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
125-100
125
100
+25
122avg 112
A12/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
132-126
132
126
+6
130avg 112
H17/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
108-103
108
103
+5
104avg 112
H19/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
119-108
119
108
+11
114avg 112
A21/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
113-111
113
111
+2
106avg 112
A23/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
104-93
104
93
+11
106avg 112
H02/06
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
18-21
22-21
30-31
27-14
31-29
21-38
36-23
26-31
34-32
27-31
31-35
32-31
35-24
17-25
39-25
27-28
44-26
37-25
22-25
22-24
37-25
35-29
34-38
26-34
27-27
21-26
28-26
32-24
32-20
26-35
26-27
35-26
28-34
30-39
36-16
19-22
29-20
30-22
25-21
20-30
223.4Avg total
115.4Scored
108.0Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (98)115.8111.6227.4+4.267%
Season at home (50)118.4108.3226.7+10.286%
Season away (48)113.0115.0228.0-2.148%
Last 10 (10)115.4108.0223.4+7.480%
Last 5 (5)115.2108.2223.4+7.0100%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (19)113.5109.6223.2+3.963%
vs Weaker ◀ (11)112.5106.2218.6+6.373%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#8
L
103-112
103
112
-9
91avg 101
A10/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
96-92
96
92
+4
88avg 101
H12/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
123-116
123
116
+7
112avg 101
A18/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
111-105
111
105
+6
102avg 101
A20/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
128-102
128
102
+26
123avg 101
H22/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
99-116
99
116
-17
91avg 101
H24/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
97-110
97
110
-13
90avg 101
A26/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
103-104
103
104
-1
88avg 101
H28/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
103-84
103
84
+19
98avg 101
A30/05
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
93-104
93
104
-11
81avg 101
A02/06
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-14
23-36
27-34
29-28
24-31
27-19
23-21
22-21
28-30
29-36
46-25
20-25
24-25
30-25
21-33
36-22
30-22
31-24
32-17
35-39
29-23
27-27
23-38
20-28
20-35
24-26
28-29
25-20
29-34
24-23
19-22
31-25
22-15
30-26
24-25
27-18
20-29
22-30
21-25
30-20
210.1Avg total
105.6Scored
104.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (103)109.6109.2218.8+0.455%
Season at home (51)110.9108.6219.5+2.367%
Season away (52)108.3109.8218.0-1.544%
Last 10 (10)105.6104.5210.1+1.150%
Last 5 (5)99.0103.6202.6-4.620%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)107.1105.1212.2+2.050%
vs Similar (21)112.0109.9221.9+2.262%
vs Weaker (1)118.0105.0223.0+13.0100%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +5.7+5.7Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +4.0+4.0Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +2.9+2.9
-7-4+0+4+7Q1Q1: +5.7+5.7Q1: -0.8-0.8Q2Q2: -2.5-2.5Q2: -0.5-0.5Q3Q3: +4.0+4.0Q3: -0.5-0.5Q4Q4: +0.2+0.2Q4: +2.9+2.9
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
40-42
40
42
-2
H02/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
52-67
52
67
-15
A06/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
61-63
61
63
-2
A08/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
52-49
52
49
+3
H10/05
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#9
W
81-51
81
51
+30
A12/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
72-54
72
54
+18
H17/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
L
48-53
48
53
-5
H19/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
W
58-55
58
55
+3
A21/05
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#12
L
58-73
58
73
-15
A23/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
59-42
59
42
+17
H02/06
NBA
113.0Avg total
58.1Scored
54.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.355.9113.2+1.450%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.252.3108.5+3.957%-
Last 30 away (16)58.259.1117.2-0.944%-
Last 10 (10)58.154.9113.0+3.250%-
Last 5 (5)59.055.4114.4+3.660%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (19)57.358.4115.7-1.137%-
vs Weaker ◀ (11)57.251.6108.8+5.573%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New York Knicks
#8
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A10/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
51-50
51
50
+1
H12/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
57-66
57
66
-9
A18/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
54-50
54
50
+4
A20/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
61-46
61
46
+15
H22/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
56-50
56
50
+6
H24/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
44-61
44
61
-17
A26/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
53-57
53
57
-4
H28/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
52-41
52
41
+11
A30/05
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#2
L
42-59
42
59
-17
A02/06
NBA
104.7Avg total
51.7Scored
53.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)55.654.8110.4+0.857%-
Last 30 at home (14)57.953.9111.8+4.179%-
Last 30 away (16)53.555.6109.1-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)51.753.0104.7-1.350%-
Last 5 (5)49.453.6103.0-4.240%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (8)52.453.8106.1-1.450%-
vs Similar (21)56.655.3112.0+1.357%-
vs Weaker (1)59.052.0111.0+7.0100%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 115.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀55%
🏀🏀🏀29%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers63.6 pts a game · 55% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers33.3 pts a game · 29% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.5 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers56.231.8
56.6%
54.5%63.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.911.1
37.1%
35.8%33.3
🏀 Free throws22.518.5
82.2%
78.1%18.5
They take 86.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 35% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 105.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws15.0 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.527.0
49.5%
54.5%54.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers31.412.2
38.9%
35.8%36.6
🏀 Free throws17.815.0
84.3%
78.1%15.0
They take 85.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 31.4 of them are 3-pointers, so 37% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 05 Jun 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
WWWWWWWLLW
Miami Heat
LWLLLWWWWL
#2
League position
#10
+7.6
Net rating
+1.2
118.7
Offensive rating
112.0
111.1
Defensive rating
110.8
56.3%
Effective FG%
52.7%
52.4%
Opp. effective FG%
53.0%
10.3%
Turnover %
11.2%
23.9%
Off. rebound %
22.7%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.21
37.1%
3-point %
38.9%
62.9%
Assist %
59.2%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence118.7 · 112.0Defence111.1 · 110.8Shooting56.3% · 52.7%3-point %37.1% · 38.9%Ball care10.3% · 11.2%Off. rebounds23.9% · 22.7%Free throws0.26 · 0.21Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
9
Denver Nuggets wins
1
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/06/23HMiami Heat104-93
23/05/23ALos Angeles Lakers113-111
21/05/23ALos Angeles Lakers119-108
19/05/23HLos Angeles Lakers108-103
17/05/23HLos Angeles Lakers132-126
12/05/23APhoenix Suns125-100
10/05/23HPhoenix Suns118-102
08/05/23APhoenix Suns124-129
06/05/23APhoenix Suns114-121
02/05/23HPhoenix Suns97-87
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
02/06/23ADenver Nuggets93-104
30/05/23ABoston Celtics103-84
28/05/23HBoston Celtics103-104
26/05/23ABoston Celtics97-110
24/05/23HBoston Celtics99-116
22/05/23HBoston Celtics128-102
20/05/23ABoston Celtics111-105
18/05/23ABoston Celtics123-116
12/05/23HNew York Knicks96-92
10/05/23ANew York Knicks103-112

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWWW67%
HomeWWWWW86%
AwayLLWWW48%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games985048
Win %67%86%48%
Points / game115.8118.4113.0
Allowed / game111.6108.3115.0
Point differential+4.2+10.2-2.1
Avg total227.4226.7228.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%52%21%
Close games (≤5 pts) won69% (29)71% (17)67% (12)
Overtime %4%4%4%
Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLLWL55%
HomeWWWLL67%
AwayWWLWL44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games1035152
Win %55%67%44%
Points / game109.6110.9108.3
Allowed / game109.2108.6109.8
Point differential+0.4+2.3-1.5
Avg total218.8219.5218.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%18%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won63% (43)69% (26)53% (17)
Overtime %6%2%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks87592868%117.0113.9+3.1
2 Denver Nuggets98663267%115.8111.6+4.2
3 Boston Celtics102683467%116.8110.9+5.9
4 Philadelphia 76ers93613266%113.7110.1+3.6
5 Memphis Grizzlies88533560%116.1112.9+3.2
6 Cleveland Cavaliers87523560%111.2106.5+4.8
7 Sacramento Kings89513857%120.2117.9+2.3
8 New York Knicks93534057%114.1111.5+2.6
9 Miami Heat103574655%109.6109.2+0.4
10 Phoenix Suns93514255%113.7112.2+1.6
11 Golden State Warriors95504553%118.1116.6+1.5
12 Los Angeles Lakers99524753%116.3115.4+0.9
13 Brooklyn Nets86454152%112.4112.1+0.3
14 Los Angeles Clippers87454252%113.7113.6+0.1
15 New Orleans Pelicans83424151%114.4112.6+1.8
16 Atlanta Hawks89444549%118.2118.2+0.0
17 Minnesota Timberwolves89444549%115.1115.4-0.3
18 Toronto Raptors83414249%112.8111.3+1.4
19 Chicago Bulls84414349%112.8111.6+1.2
20 Oklahoma City Thunder84414349%117.3116.5+0.8
21 Dallas Mavericks82384446%114.2114.1+0.1
22 Utah Jazz82374545%117.1118.0-0.9
23 Washington Wizards82354743%113.2114.4-1.2
24 Indiana Pacers82354743%116.3119.5-3.2
25 Orlando Magic82344841%111.4114.0-2.6
26 Portland Trail Blazers82334940%113.4117.4-4.0
27 Charlotte Hornets82275533%111.0117.2-6.2
28 Houston Rockets82226027%110.7118.6-7.9
29 San Antonio Spurs82226027%113.0123.1-10.0
30 Detroit Pistons82176521%110.3118.5-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets23342625108
Miami Heat26252436111
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.