PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Mon 22 May 2023
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 128-102
30-22 31-24 32-17 35-39
Position#10
Record55-42
FormWLWWW
Points / game109.9
Allowed / game109.6
vs
Position#3
Record65-32
FormLWWLL
Points / game117.5
Allowed / game111.1
USANBANBA - Semi-finals· Kaseya Center
NBA2022-23Neutral venue
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
119-114
119
114
+5
112avg 101
H24/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
128-126 OT
128
126
+2
109avg 101
A27/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
108-101
108
101
+7
98avg 101
A30/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
105-111
105
111
-6
92avg 101
A02/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
105-86
105
86
+19
92avg 101
H06/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
109-101
109
101
+8
105avg 101
H08/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
103-112
103
112
-9
91avg 101
A10/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
96-92
96
92
+4
88avg 101
H12/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
123-116
123
116
+7
112avg 101
A18/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
111-105
111
105
+6
102avg 101
A20/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
28-33
22-24
28-32
41-25
36-33
27-36
23-33
32-16
21-32
29-23
31-20
27-26
29-31
25-20
23-25
28-35
29-21
29-23
29-26
18-16
31-30
25-18
34-33
19-20
24-14
23-36
27-34
29-28
24-31
27-19
23-21
22-21
28-30
29-36
46-25
20-25
24-25
30-25
21-33
36-22
217.1Avg total
110.7Scored
106.4Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (97)109.9109.6219.5+0.457%
Season at home (48)111.0108.7219.7+2.269%
Season away (49)108.9110.4219.3-1.445%
Last 10 (10)110.7106.4217.1+4.380%
Last 5 (5)108.4105.2213.6+3.280%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)117.7112.0229.7+5.7100%
vs Similar (25)112.9111.2224.1+1.760%
vs Weaker (2)115.0102.5217.5+12.5100%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
128-120
128
120
+8
121avg 111
A28/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
115-119
115
119
-4
117avg 111
H01/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
121-87
121
87
+34
115avg 111
H04/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 111
A05/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
115-116 OT
115
116
-1
108avg 111
A07/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
103-115
103
115
-12
87avg 111
H09/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
95-86
95
86
+9
93avg 111
A11/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
112-88
112
88
+24
100avg 111
H14/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
116-123
116
123
-7
106avg 111
H18/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
105-111
105
111
-6
96avg 111
H20/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
35-34
33-33
30-33
30-20
38-31
28-32
21-24
28-32
28-22
29-27
35-16
29-22
28-29
29-21
31-27
26-25
19-27
31-32
33-33
24-15
26-33
23-25
23-30
31-27
29-22
21-21
21-30
24-13
23-29
32-23
33-10
24-26
30-28
36-29
25-46
25-20
25-24
25-30
33-21
22-36
219.1Avg total
112.4Scored
106.7Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (97)117.5111.1228.6+6.467%
Season at home (50)119.2109.9229.1+9.372%
Season away (47)115.6112.4228.0+3.262%
Last 10 (10)112.4106.7219.1+5.750%
Last 5 (5)106.2104.6210.8+1.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)114.8102.4217.2+12.460%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)118.3111.9230.2+6.465%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +3.8+3.8Q4: +2.7+2.7
-5-2+0+2+5Q1Q1: -0.6-0.6Q1: +0.2+0.2Q2Q2: +0.6+0.6Q2: +1.4+1.4Q3Q3: +0.3+0.3Q3: +1.5+1.5Q4Q4: +3.8+3.8Q4: +2.7+2.7
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
50-57
50
57
-7
H24/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
63-69
63
69
-6
A27/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A30/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
54-51
54
51
+3
A02/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H06/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
56-48
56
48
+8
H08/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A10/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
51-50
51
50
+1
H12/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
57-66
57
66
-9
A18/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
54-50
54
50
+4
A20/05
NBA
108.0Avg total
54.0Scored
54.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.055.7111.7+0.353%-
Last 30 at home (14)57.954.9112.7+3.071%-
Last 30 away (16)54.456.5110.9-2.138%-
Last 10 (10)54.054.0108.0+0.050%-
Last 5 (5)53.052.8105.8+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)53.758.3112.0-4.733%-
vs Similar (25)56.355.9112.2+0.452%-
vs Weaker (2)55.549.5105.0+6.0100%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
68-67
68
67
+1
A28/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
66-63
66
63
+3
H01/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
57-49
57
49
+8
H04/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
57-50
57
50
+7
A05/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
50-59
50
59
-9
A07/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
49-58
49
58
-9
H09/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
50-43
50
43
+7
A11/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
55-52
55
52
+3
H14/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
66-57
66
57
+9
H18/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
50-54
50
54
-4
H20/05
NBA
112.0Avg total
56.8Scored
55.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.054.4114.4+5.673%-
Last 30 at home (15)60.953.1114.0+7.980%-
Last 30 away (15)59.155.7114.7+3.467%-
Last 10 (10)56.855.2112.0+1.670%-
Last 5 (5)54.052.8106.8+1.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)56.552.8109.3+3.770%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)61.855.1116.9+6.675%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 110.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀34%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers55.0 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.5 pts a game · 34% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.627.5
52.3%
54.5%55.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.312.5
34.4%
35.8%37.5
🏀 Free throws22.318.2
81.6%
78.1%18.2
They take 88.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 36.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 41% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 112.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀46%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.2 pts a game · 46% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers42.9 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.3 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.425.6
55.2%
54.5%51.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.814.3
37.8%
35.8%42.9
🏀 Free throws21.718.3
84.3%
78.1%18.3
They take 84.2 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.8 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 22 May 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
WWWLWWLWWW
Boston Celtics
LLWWLLWWLW
#10
League position
#3
+4.3
Net rating
+5.9
111.9
Offensive rating
116.9
107.5
Defensive rating
110.9
52.0%
Effective FG%
55.9%
51.6%
Opp. effective FG%
51.8%
10.7%
Turnover %
11.7%
22.6%
Off. rebound %
21.3%
0.25
Free-throw rate
0.26
34.4%
3-point %
37.8%
59.0%
Assist %
57.9%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
50%

Profile

Offence111.9 · 116.9Defence107.5 · 110.9Shooting52.0% · 55.9%3-point %34.4% · 37.8%Ball care10.7% · 11.7%Off. rebounds22.6% · 21.3%Free throws0.25 · 0.26Form (last 10/10)80% · 50%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Miami Heat wins
5
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/05/23ABoston Celtics111-105
18/05/23ABoston Celtics123-116
12/05/23HNew York Knicks96-92
10/05/23ANew York Knicks103-112
08/05/23HNew York Knicks109-101
06/05/23HNew York Knicks105-86
02/05/23ANew York Knicks105-111
30/04/23ANew York Knicks108-101
27/04/23AMilwaukee Bucks128-126 OT
24/04/23HMilwaukee Bucks119-114
DateH/AOpponentScore
20/05/23HMiami Heat105-111
18/05/23HMiami Heat116-123
14/05/23HPhiladelphia 76ers112-88
11/05/23APhiladelphia 76ers95-86
09/05/23HPhiladelphia 76ers103-115
07/05/23APhiladelphia 76ers115-116 OT
05/05/23APhiladelphia 76ers114-102
04/05/23HPhiladelphia 76ers121-87
01/05/23HPhiladelphia 76ers115-119
28/04/23AAtlanta Hawks128-120

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW57%
HomeWWWWW69%
AwayWLLWW45%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games974849
Win %57%69%45%
Points / game109.9111.0108.9
Allowed / game109.6108.7110.4
Point differential+0.4+2.2-1.4
Avg total219.5219.7219.3
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%17%16%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (42)72% (25)53% (17)
Overtime %6%2%10%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLWWLL67%
HomeWLWLL72%
AwayWWWLW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games975047
Win %67%72%62%
Points / game117.5119.2115.6
Allowed / game111.1109.9112.4
Point differential+6.4+9.3+3.2
Avg total228.6229.1228.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+37%46%28%
Close games (≤5 pts) won48% (27)46% (13)50% (14)
Overtime %12%12%13%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks87592868%117.0113.9+3.1
2 Boston Celtics97653267%117.5111.1+6.4
3 Denver Nuggets96643267%115.9111.8+4.1
4 Philadelphia 76ers93613266%113.7110.1+3.6
5 Memphis Grizzlies88533560%116.1112.9+3.2
6 Cleveland Cavaliers87523560%111.2106.5+4.8
7 Sacramento Kings89513857%120.2117.9+2.3
8 New York Knicks93534057%114.1111.5+2.6
9 Miami Heat97554257%109.9109.6+0.4
10 Phoenix Suns93514255%113.7112.2+1.6
11 Los Angeles Lakers98524653%116.3115.4+0.9
12 Golden State Warriors95504553%118.1116.6+1.5
13 Brooklyn Nets86454152%112.4112.1+0.3
14 Los Angeles Clippers87454252%113.7113.6+0.1
15 New Orleans Pelicans83424151%114.4112.6+1.8
16 Atlanta Hawks89444549%118.2118.2+0.0
17 Minnesota Timberwolves89444549%115.1115.4-0.3
18 Toronto Raptors83414249%112.8111.3+1.4
19 Chicago Bulls84414349%112.8111.6+1.2
20 Oklahoma City Thunder84414349%117.3116.5+0.8
21 Dallas Mavericks82384446%114.2114.1+0.1
22 Utah Jazz82374545%117.1118.0-0.9
23 Washington Wizards82354743%113.2114.4-1.2
24 Indiana Pacers82354743%116.3119.5-3.2
25 Orlando Magic82344841%111.4114.0-2.6
26 Portland Trail Blazers82334940%113.4117.4-4.0
27 Charlotte Hornets82275533%111.0117.2-6.2
28 Houston Rockets82226027%110.7118.6-7.9
29 San Antonio Spurs82226027%113.0123.1-10.0
30 Detroit Pistons82176521%110.3118.5-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat30313235128
Boston Celtics22241739102
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.