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Boston Celtics vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Sat 20 May 2023
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 105-111
25-24 25-30 33-21 22-36
Position#3
Record65-31
FormLLWWL
Points / game117.6
Allowed / game111.1
vs
Position#10
Record54-42
FormWWLWW
Points / game109.9
Allowed / game109.6
USANBANBA - Semi-finals· TD Garden
NBA2022-23
Meetings · Boston Celtics v Miami Heat
02 Apr 2027
BOS v MIA
upcoming
25 Dec 2026
BOS v MIA
upcoming
06 Feb 2026
BOS98
MIA96
19 Dec 2025
BOS129
MIA116
02 Apr 2025
BOS103
MIA124
02 Dec 2024
BOS108
MIA89
01 May 2024
BOS118
MIA84
24 Apr 2024
BOS101
MIA111
21 Apr 2024
BOS114
MIA94
27 Oct 2023
BOS119
MIA111
29 May 2023
BOS84
MIA103
25 May 2023
BOS110
MIA97
19 May 2023
BOS105
MIA111
17 May 2023
BOS116
MIA123
02 Dec 2022
BOS116
MIA120
30 Nov 2022
BOS134
MIA121
27 May 2022
BOS103
MIA111
23 May 2022
BOS102
MIA82
21 May 2022
BOS103
MIA109
30 Mar 2022
BOS98
MIA106
31 Jan 2022
BOS122
MIA92
11 May 2021
BOS121
MIA129
09 May 2021
BOS124
MIA130
25 Sep 2020
BOS121
MIA108
17 Sep 2020
BOS101
MIA106
15 Sep 2020
BOS114
MIA117
04 Dec 2019
BOS112
MIA93
01 Apr 2019
BOS110
MIA105
21 Jan 2019
BOS107
MIA99
20 Dec 2017
BOS89
MIA90
26 Mar 2017
BOS112
MIA108
30 Dec 2016
BOS117
MIA114
13 Apr 2016
BOS98
MIA88
27 Feb 2016
BOS101
MIA89
25 Mar 2015
BOS86
MIA93
01 Feb 2015
BOS75
MIA83
19 Mar 2014
BOS101
MIA96
18 Mar 2013
BOS103
MIA105
27 Jan 2013
BOS100
MIA98
07 Jun 2012
BOS79
MIA98
03 Jun 2012
BOS93
MIA91
01 Jun 2012
BOS101
MIA91
24 Apr 2012
BOS78
MIA66
01 Apr 2012
BOS91
MIA72
09 May 2011
BOS90
MIA98
07 May 2011
BOS97
MIA81
13 Feb 2011
BOS85
MIA82
26 Oct 2010
BOS88
MIA80
27 Apr 2010
BOS96
MIA86
20 Apr 2010
BOS106
MIA77
17 Apr 2010
BOS85
MIA76
03 Feb 2010
BOS107
MIA102
10 Apr 2009
BOS105
MIA98
18 Mar 2009
BOS112
MIA108
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Boston Celtics winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#16
L
117-119
117
119
-2
113avg 111
H25/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
128-120
128
120
+8
121avg 111
A28/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
115-119
115
119
-4
117avg 111
H01/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
121-87
121
87
+34
115avg 111
H04/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
114-102
114
102
+12
109avg 111
A05/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
115-116 OT
115
116
-1
108avg 111
A07/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
103-115
103
115
-12
87avg 111
H09/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
95-86
95
86
+9
93avg 111
A11/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
112-88
112
88
+24
100avg 111
H14/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
L
116-123
116
123
-7
106avg 111
H18/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
27-30
39-28
26-24
25-37
35-34
33-33
30-33
30-20
38-31
28-32
21-24
28-32
28-22
29-27
35-16
29-22
28-29
29-21
31-27
26-25
19-27
31-32
33-33
24-15
26-33
23-25
23-30
31-27
29-22
21-21
21-30
24-13
23-29
32-23
33-10
24-26
30-28
36-29
25-46
25-20
221.1Avg total
113.6Scored
107.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (96)117.6111.1228.7+6.568%
Season at home (49)119.5109.9229.4+9.673%
Season away (47)115.6112.4228.0+3.262%
Last 10 (10)113.6107.5221.1+6.150%
Last 5 (5)108.2105.6213.8+2.640%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)114.8102.4217.2+12.460%
vs Weaker ◀ (20)118.8111.0229.8+7.870%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
121-99
121
99
+22
117avg 100
H22/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
119-114
119
114
+5
112avg 100
H24/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
128-126 OT
128
126
+2
109avg 100
A27/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
108-101
108
101
+7
98avg 100
A30/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
105-111
105
111
-6
92avg 100
A02/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
105-86
105
86
+19
92avg 100
H06/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
109-101
109
101
+8
105avg 100
H08/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
103-112
103
112
-9
91avg 100
A10/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
96-92
96
92
+4
88avg 100
H12/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
W
123-116
123
116
+7
112avg 100
A18/05
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-21
37-32
28-26
27-20
28-33
22-24
28-32
41-25
36-33
27-36
23-33
32-16
21-32
29-23
31-20
27-26
29-31
25-20
23-25
28-35
29-21
29-23
29-26
18-16
31-30
25-18
34-33
19-20
24-14
23-36
27-34
29-28
24-31
27-19
23-21
22-21
28-30
29-36
46-25
20-25
217.5Avg total
111.7Scored
105.8Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (96)109.9109.6219.5+0.356%
Season at home (48)111.0108.7219.7+2.269%
Season away (48)108.9110.5219.4-1.644%
Last 10 (10)111.7105.8217.5+5.980%
Last 5 (5)107.2101.4208.6+5.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)114.0111.7225.7+2.367%
vs Similar (25)112.9111.2224.1+1.760%
vs Weaker (2)115.0102.5217.5+12.5100%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: +3.1+3.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -0.2-0.2Q1: +0.3+0.3Q2Q2: +3.0+3.0Q2: +0.6+0.6Q3Q3: +0.5+0.5Q3: +1.7+1.7Q4Q4: +2.9+2.9Q4: +3.1+3.1
Boston CelticsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
66-58
66
58
+8
H25/04
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#16
W
68-67
68
67
+1
A28/04
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
66-63
66
63
+3
H01/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
57-49
57
49
+8
H04/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
57-50
57
50
+7
A05/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
50-59
50
59
-9
A07/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
L
49-58
49
58
-9
H09/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
50-43
50
43
+7
A11/05
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#4
W
55-52
55
52
+3
H14/05
NBA
Miami Heat
#10
W
66-57
66
57
+9
H18/05
NBA
114.0Avg total
58.4Scored
55.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)60.354.1114.4+6.377%-
Last 30 at home (15)61.652.5114.1+9.187%-
Last 30 away (15)59.155.7114.7+3.467%-
Last 10 (10)58.455.6114.0+2.880%-
Last 5 (5)54.053.8107.8+0.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (10)56.552.8109.3+3.770%-
vs Weaker ◀ (20)62.254.7117.0+7.580%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
W
66-53
66
53
+13
H22/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
50-57
50
57
-7
H24/04
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#1
L
63-69
63
69
-6
A27/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
50-55
50
55
-5
A30/04
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
54-51
54
51
+3
A02/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
58-44
58
44
+14
H06/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
56-48
56
48
+8
H08/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
L
47-50
47
50
-3
A10/05
NBA
New York Knicks
#8
W
51-50
51
50
+1
H12/05
NBA
Boston Celtics
#3
L
57-66
57
66
-9
A18/05
NBA
109.5Avg total
55.2Scored
54.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.056.0111.9+0.050%-
Last 30 at home (15)57.555.0112.5+2.567%-
Last 30 away (15)54.456.9111.3-2.533%-
Last 10 (10)55.254.3109.5+0.950%-
Last 5 (5)53.851.6105.4+2.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (3)53.360.7114.0-7.30%-
vs Similar (25)56.355.9112.2+0.452%-
vs Weaker (2)55.549.5105.0+6.0100%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
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⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 113.6 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀38%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.2 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers43.5 pts a game · 38% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.9 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers47.426.6
56.1%
54.5%53.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers38.114.5
38.1%
35.8%43.5
🏀 Free throws20.616.9
82.0%
78.1%16.9
They take 85.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 38.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 45% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 111.7 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.2 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.6 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws17.9 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 114.1 points a game
52%
32%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.127.1
53.0%
54.5%54.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers37.013.2
35.7%
35.8%39.6
🏀 Free throws22.117.9
81.0%
78.1%17.9
They take 88.1 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 37.0 of them are 3-pointers, so 42% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 20 May 2023 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Boston Celtics
LWWLLWWLWL
Miami Heat
WWLWWLWWWW
#3
League position
#10
+6.3
Net rating
+6.0
118.0
Offensive rating
113.0
111.7
Defensive rating
107.0
56.5%
Effective FG%
53.2%
52.5%
Opp. effective FG%
51.7%
11.1%
Turnover %
11.0%
22.2%
Off. rebound %
22.1%
0.24
Free-throw rate
0.25
38.1%
3-point %
35.7%
58.4%
Assist %
58.3%
50%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence118.0 · 113.0Defence111.7 · 107.0Shooting56.5% · 53.2%3-point %38.1% · 35.7%Ball care11.1% · 11.0%Off. rebounds22.2% · 22.1%Free throws0.24 · 0.25Form (last 10/10)50% · 80%
■ Boston Celtics   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
5
Boston Celtics wins
5
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/05/23HMiami Heat116-123
14/05/23HPhiladelphia 76ers112-88
11/05/23APhiladelphia 76ers95-86
09/05/23HPhiladelphia 76ers103-115
07/05/23APhiladelphia 76ers115-116 OT
05/05/23APhiladelphia 76ers114-102
04/05/23HPhiladelphia 76ers121-87
01/05/23HPhiladelphia 76ers115-119
28/04/23AAtlanta Hawks128-120
25/04/23HAtlanta Hawks117-119
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
18/05/23ABoston Celtics123-116
12/05/23HNew York Knicks96-92
10/05/23ANew York Knicks103-112
08/05/23HNew York Knicks109-101
06/05/23HNew York Knicks105-86
02/05/23ANew York Knicks105-111
30/04/23ANew York Knicks108-101
27/04/23AMilwaukee Bucks128-126 OT
24/04/23HMilwaukee Bucks119-114
22/04/23HMilwaukee Bucks121-99

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Boston Celtics
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 5 Wins / 5 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallLLWWL68%
HomeLWLWL73%
AwayWWWLW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games964947
Win %68%73%62%
Points / game117.6119.5115.6
Allowed / game111.1109.9112.4
Point differential+6.5+9.6+3.2
Avg total228.7229.4228.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+38%47%28%
Close games (≤5 pts) won48% (27)46% (13)50% (14)
Overtime %12%12%13%
Miami Heat
NBA 2022-23
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW56%
HomeWWWWW69%
AwayWWLLW44%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games964848
Win %56%69%44%
Points / game109.9111.0108.9
Allowed / game109.6108.7110.5
Point differential+0.3+2.2-1.6
Avg total219.5219.7219.4
Over main line---
Win by 10+17%17%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won64% (42)72% (25)53% (17)
Overtime %6%2%10%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Milwaukee Bucks87592868%117.0113.9+3.1
2 Boston Celtics96653168%117.6111.1+6.5
3 Denver Nuggets95633266%115.9111.8+4.1
4 Philadelphia 76ers93613266%113.7110.1+3.6
5 Memphis Grizzlies88533560%116.1112.9+3.2
6 Cleveland Cavaliers87523560%111.2106.5+4.8
7 Sacramento Kings89513857%120.2117.9+2.3
8 New York Knicks93534057%114.1111.5+2.6
9 Miami Heat96544256%109.9109.6+0.3
10 Phoenix Suns93514255%113.7112.2+1.6
11 Los Angeles Lakers97524554%116.4115.4+1.1
12 Golden State Warriors95504553%118.1116.6+1.5
13 Brooklyn Nets86454152%112.4112.1+0.3
14 Los Angeles Clippers87454252%113.7113.6+0.1
15 New Orleans Pelicans83424151%114.4112.6+1.8
16 Atlanta Hawks89444549%118.2118.2+0.0
17 Minnesota Timberwolves89444549%115.1115.4-0.3
18 Toronto Raptors83414249%112.8111.3+1.4
19 Chicago Bulls84414349%112.8111.6+1.2
20 Oklahoma City Thunder84414349%117.3116.5+0.8
21 Dallas Mavericks82384446%114.2114.1+0.1
22 Utah Jazz82374545%117.1118.0-0.9
23 Washington Wizards82354743%113.2114.4-1.2
24 Indiana Pacers82354743%116.3119.5-3.2
25 Orlando Magic82344841%111.4114.0-2.6
26 Portland Trail Blazers82334940%113.4117.4-4.0
27 Charlotte Hornets82275533%111.0117.2-6.2
28 Houston Rockets82226027%110.7118.6-7.9
29 San Antonio Spurs82226027%113.0123.1-10.0
30 Detroit Pistons82176521%110.3118.5-8.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Boston Celtics25253322105
Miami Heat24302136111
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