PythiaBasketballBETA Best Picks Games Leagues Teams Players Pro Picks PRO Validation Research Pricing Log in

Denver Nuggets vs Miami Heat Result & Analysis

Date: Thu 15 Apr 2021
Tip-off: 02:00
Final 123-106
26-31 34-18 36-30 27-27
Position#6
Record36-21
FormWWWLL
Points / game115.2
Allowed / game109.5
vs
Position#15
Record29-27
FormWLWWL
Points / game106.2
Allowed / game107.2
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2020-21
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Miami Heat
14 Mar 2027
DEN v MIA
upcoming
05 Nov 2025
DEN122
MIA112
08 Nov 2024
DEN135
MIA122
29 Feb 2024
DEN103
MIA97
12 Jun 2023
DEN94
MIA89
04 Jun 2023
DEN108
MIA111
01 Jun 2023
DEN104
MIA93
30 Dec 2022
DEN124
MIA119
08 Nov 2021
DEN113
MIA96
14 Apr 2021
DEN123
MIA106
01 Aug 2020
DEN105
MIA125
05 Nov 2019
DEN109
MIA89
11 Feb 2019
DEN103
MIA87
03 Nov 2017
DEN95
MIA94
30 Nov 2016
DEN98
MIA106
15 Jan 2016
DEN95
MIA98
10 Dec 2014
DEN102
MIA82
30 Dec 2013
DEN94
MIA97
15 Nov 2012
DEN93
MIA98
13 Jan 2012
DEN117
MIA104
13 Jan 2011
DEN130
MIA102
03 Dec 2009
DEN114
MIA96
07 Jan 2009
DEN108
MIA97
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
W
113-108
113
108
+5
104avg 108
A27/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
126-102
126
102
+24
126avg 108
H29/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
104-95
104
95
+9
105avg 108
H31/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
W
101-94
101
94
+7
97avg 108
A02/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#28
W
119-109
119
109
+10
118avg 108
H05/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
W
134-119
134
119
+15
137avg 108
H07/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
106-96
106
96
+10
101avg 108
H08/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
121-119
121
119
+2
128avg 108
H10/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
L
87-105
87
105
-18
76avg 108
H11/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
L
107-116
107
116
-9
100avg 108
A13/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
26-33
28-30
31-23
28-22
31-35
34-20
32-24
29-23
44-22
24-23
20-26
16-24
31-20
31-29
19-21
20-24
23-29
24-36
38-21
34-23
39-32
37-24
33-30
25-33
30-32
24-18
27-24
25-22
36-26
25-24
35-33
25-36
27-16
24-29
28-29
8-31
32-33
29-23
22-43
24-17
218.1Avg total
111.8Scored
106.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (57)115.2109.5224.7+5.663%
Season at home (30)116.4109.1225.5+7.367%
Season away (27)113.8110.0223.8+3.859%
Last 10 (10)111.8106.3218.1+5.580%
Last 5 (5)111.0111.0222.0+0.060%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (12)108.8106.1214.9+2.858%
vs Weaker ◀ (18)117.5110.3227.8+7.278%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
L
122-125
122
125
-3
125avg 102
H25/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
105-110
105
110
-5
95avg 102
A27/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#11
W
98-88
98
88
+10
90avg 102
A29/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
92-87
92
87
+5
83avg 102
A31/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
W
116-109
116
109
+7
112avg 102
H02/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#26
W
115-101
115
101
+14
no box
H04/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#14
L
112-124
112
124
-12
111avg 102
H07/04
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
W
110-104
110
104
+6
105avg 102
H08/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
W
107-98
107
98
+9
92avg 102
A12/04
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
86-106
86
106
-20
74avg 102
A14/04
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
24-31
34-28
33-32
31-34
23-40
26-32
30-20
26-18
21-16
15-27
39-21
23-24
23-28
20-17
22-22
27-20
23-24
36-30
27-27
30-28
36-27
31-27
17-19
31-28
34-37
23-26
32-33
23-28
32-27
22-29
29-24
27-24
25-31
31-17
33-23
18-27
34-26
16-30
22-27
14-23
211.5Avg total
106.3Scored
105.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (56)106.2107.2213.4-1.152%
Season at home (29)108.0109.3217.3-1.352%
Season away (27)104.2105.0209.2-0.952%
Last 10 (10)106.3105.2211.5+1.160%
Last 5 (5)106.0106.6212.6-0.660%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)104.4113.8218.2-9.420%
vs Similar (19)105.2104.6209.8+0.558%
vs Weaker (6)108.397.8206.2+10.5100%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +2.4+2.4Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +3.6+3.6Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: -0.4-0.4
-5-3+0+3+5Q1Q1: +4.1+4.1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q2Q2: +2.4+2.4Q2: -0.9-0.9Q3Q3: +1.1+1.1Q3: +3.6+3.6Q4Q4: -2.1-2.1Q4: -0.4-0.4
Denver NuggetsMiami Heat
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#20
L
54-63
54
63
-9
A27/03
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#10
W
65-55
65
55
+10
H29/03
NBA
Philadelphia 76ers
#2
W
68-45
68
45
+23
H31/03
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#7
W
62-49
62
49
+13
A02/04
NBA
Orlando Magic
#28
L
47-65
47
65
-18
H05/04
NBA
Detroit Pistons
#29
W
76-56
76
56
+20
H07/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
54-50
54
50
+4
H08/04
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#22
W
61-50
61
50
+11
H10/04
NBA
Boston Celtics
#16
W
51-45
51
45
+6
H11/04
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
W
61-56
61
56
+5
A13/04
NBA
113.3Avg total
59.9Scored
53.4Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)58.654.9113.4+3.757%-
Last 30 at home (16)57.354.3111.6+3.056%-
Last 30 away (14)60.055.5115.5+4.557%-
Last 10 (10)59.953.4113.3+6.580%-
Last 5 (5)60.651.4112.0+9.2100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (12)59.654.8114.4+4.858%-
vs Weaker ◀ (18)57.954.9112.8+3.056%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
L
58-59
58
59
-1
H25/03
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#21
L
49-72
49
72
-23
A27/03
NBA
New York Knicks
#11
L
36-43
36
43
-7
A29/03
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
43-45
43
45
-2
A31/03
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#13
W
59-54
59
54
+5
H02/04
NBA
Cleveland Cavaliers
#26
W
67-54
67
54
+13
H04/04
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#14
L
57-63
57
63
-6
H07/04
NBA
Los Angeles Lakers
#8
L
54-56
54
56
-2
H08/04
NBA
Portland Trail Blazers
#12
W
56-48
56
48
+8
A12/04
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#3
L
50-56
50
56
-6
A14/04
NBA
107.9Avg total
52.9Scored
55.0Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)52.852.5105.3+0.247%-
Last 30 at home (14)56.055.1111.1+0.950%-
Last 30 away (16)49.950.2100.2-0.344%-
Last 10 (10)52.955.0107.9-2.130%-
Last 5 (5)56.855.4112.2+1.440%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (5)50.856.2107.0-5.420%-
vs Similar (19)52.551.7104.2+0.747%-
vs Weaker (6)55.352.0107.3+3.367%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
Free daily update

Get it on Telegram

Yesterday's results in full, today's games and market moves worth watching. One post a day, no signup.

Join the channel

🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 111.8 points a game scored
🏀🏀56%
🏀🏀🏀31%
🏀13%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.6 pts a game · 56% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers34.5 pts a game · 31% of the points
🏀 Free throws14.7 pts a game · 13% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers57.731.3
54.2%
52.8%62.6
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers29.311.5
39.2%
36.6%34.5
🏀 Free throws18.414.7
79.9%
77.7%14.7
They take 87.0 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 29.3 of them are 3-pointers, so 34% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 106.3 points a game scored
🏀🏀50%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀15%
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.2 pts a game · 50% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers36.9 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws16.2 pts a game · 15% of the points
League average for comparison: 111.8 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers46.626.6
57.1%
52.8%53.2
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.112.3
35.0%
36.6%36.9
🏀 Free throws22.116.2
73.3%
77.7%16.2
They take 81.7 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 43% of their shots are threes (league average: 39%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 15 Apr 2021 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LLWWWWWWWW
Miami Heat
LWWLWWWWLL
#6
League position
#15
+5.7
Net rating
+1.3
115.2
Offensive rating
109.7
109.6
Defensive rating
108.4
55.8%
Effective FG%
55.1%
53.0%
Opp. effective FG%
54.6%
14.2%
Turnover %
12.6%
28.1%
Off. rebound %
17.8%
0.21
Free-throw rate
0.27
39.2%
3-point %
35.0%
65.7%
Assist %
69.9%
80%
Form (last 10/10)
60%

Profile

Offence115.2 · 109.7Defence109.6 · 108.4Shooting55.8% · 55.1%3-point %39.2% · 35.0%Ball care14.2% · 12.6%Off. rebounds28.1% · 17.8%Free throws0.21 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)80% · 60%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Miami Heat
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Denver Nuggets wins
4
Miami Heat wins
DateH/AOpponentScore
13/04/21AGolden State Warriors107-116
11/04/21HBoston Celtics87-105
10/04/21HSan Antonio Spurs121-119
08/04/21HSan Antonio Spurs106-96
07/04/21HDetroit Pistons134-119
05/04/21HOrlando Magic119-109
02/04/21ALos Angeles Clippers101-94
31/03/21HPhiladelphia 76ers104-95
29/03/21HAtlanta Hawks126-102
27/03/21ANew Orleans Pelicans113-108
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
14/04/21APhoenix Suns86-106
12/04/21APortland Trail Blazers107-98
08/04/21HLos Angeles Lakers110-104
07/04/21HMemphis Grizzlies112-124
04/04/21HCleveland Cavaliers115-101
02/04/21HGolden State Warriors116-109
31/03/21AIndiana Pacers92-87
29/03/21ANew York Knicks98-88
27/03/21ACharlotte Hornets105-110
25/03/21HPortland Trail Blazers122-125

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWWLL63%
HomeWWWWL67%
AwayWLWWL59%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games573027
Win %63%67%59%
Points / game115.2116.4113.8
Allowed / game109.5109.1110.0
Point differential+5.6+7.3+3.8
Avg total224.7225.5223.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+40%47%33%
Close games (≤5 pts) won50% (16)44% (9)57% (7)
Overtime %9%10%7%
Miami Heat
NBA 2020-21
Recent: 6 Wins / 4 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWL52%
HomeLWWLW52%
AwayLWWWL52%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games562927
Win %52%52%52%
Points / game106.2108.0104.2
Allowed / game107.2109.3105.0
Point differential-1.1-1.3-0.9
Avg total213.4217.3209.2
Over main line---
Win by 10+21%24%19%
Close games (≤5 pts) won40% (15)29% (7)50% (8)
Overtime %7%7%7%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Utah Jazz58441476%117.1107.2+9.9
2 Philadelphia 76ers57401770%113.8108.3+5.5
3 Brooklyn Nets57391868%118.7113.8+4.9
4 Phoenix Suns58391967%114.1108.1+6.0
5 Los Angeles Clippers60392165%114.2108.5+5.6
6 Los Angeles Lakers59382164%109.9105.4+4.5
7 Denver Nuggets57362163%115.2109.5+5.6
8 Milwaukee Bucks57342360%118.7113.2+5.4
9 Dallas Mavericks57322556%111.9109.9+2.0
10 Portland Trail Blazers58322655%114.1115.2-1.1
11 Atlanta Hawks59322754%113.2111.5+1.7
12 New York Knicks60322853%105.2103.3+2.0
13 Memphis Grizzlies57302753%113.3111.3+1.9
14 Miami Heat56292752%106.2107.2-1.1
15 Boston Celtics57292851%111.8110.4+1.3
16 Golden State Warriors58292950%112.8113.4-0.7
17 Charlotte Hornets58283048%110.3111.5-1.2
18 New Orleans Pelicans57273047%114.7114.5+0.2
19 San Antonio Spurs56263046%110.4112.4-2.0
20 Indiana Pacers57263146%113.4114.0-0.6
21 Chicago Bulls58253343%112.0113.0-1.0
22 Sacramento Kings58243441%114.0118.4-4.4
23 Toronto Raptors59243541%111.8111.4+0.4
24 Cleveland Cavaliers58223638%103.7110.7-7.1
25 Washington Wizards56213538%112.8118.0-5.2
26 Oklahoma City Thunder58213736%105.5114.2-8.7
27 Orlando Magic59203934%105.0112.3-7.3
28 Detroit Pistons59184131%106.7110.0-3.3
29 Houston Rockets59174229%108.6114.0-5.3
30 Minnesota Timberwolves59154425%110.3118.2-7.9
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Denver Nuggets26343627123
Miami Heat31183027106
← all games of the day
18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

PythiaBasketball uses cookies

We use cookies to keep the site working, to remember your settings, to understand which predictions people read, and to improve what we show you. For more information, see our Cookie Policy.