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Denver Nuggets vs Minnesota Timberwolves Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 26 Dec 2025
Tip-off: 03:30
Final 142-138 (OT)
32-29 25-26 35-23 23-37 27-23
Position#6
Record21-8
FormWWLWL
Points / game125.2
Allowed / game116.5
vs
Position#10
Record20-10
FormWLWWW
Points / game118.5
Allowed / game113.5
USANBA· Ball Arena
NBA2025-26
Meetings · Denver Nuggets v Minnesota Timberwolves
07 Mar 2027
DEN v MIN
upcoming
28 Dec 2026
DEN v MIN
upcoming
27 Apr 2026
DEN125
MIN113
20 Apr 2026
DEN114
MIN119
18 Apr 2026
DEN116
MIN105
01 Mar 2026
DEN108
MIN117
25 Dec 2025
DEN142
MIN138
01 Apr 2025
DEN139
MIN140
12 Mar 2025
DEN95
MIN115
19 May 2024
DEN90
MIN98
14 May 2024
DEN112
MIN97
06 May 2024
DEN80
MIN106
04 May 2024
DEN99
MIN106
10 Apr 2024
DEN116
MIN107
29 Mar 2024
DEN98
MIN111
25 Apr 2023
DEN112
MIN109
19 Apr 2023
DEN122
MIN113
16 Apr 2023
DEN109
MIN80
07 Feb 2023
DEN146
MIN112
18 Jan 2023
DEN122
MIN118
01 Apr 2022
DEN130
MIN136
15 Dec 2021
DEN107
MIN124
05 Jan 2021
DEN123
MIN116
23 Feb 2020
DEN128
MIN116
20 Dec 2019
DEN109
MIN100
10 Apr 2019
DEN99
MIN95
12 Mar 2019
DEN133
MIN107
05 Apr 2018
DEN100
MIN96
20 Dec 2017
DEN104
MIN112
15 Feb 2017
DEN99
MIN112
28 Dec 2016
DEN105
MIN103
11 Dec 2015
DEN111
MIN108
30 Oct 2015
DEN78
MIN95
17 Jan 2015
DEN105
MIN113
26 Dec 2014
DEN106
MIN102
03 Mar 2014
DEN128
MIN132
15 Nov 2013
DEN117
MIN113
09 Mar 2013
DEN111
MIN88
03 Jan 2013
DEN97
MIN101
11 Apr 2012
DEN113
MIN107
20 Feb 2012
DEN103
MIN101
09 Apr 2011
DEN130
MIN106
18 Dec 2010
DEN115
MIN113
11 Jan 2010
DEN105
MIN94
29 Nov 2009
DEN100
MIN106
10 Dec 2008
DEN116
MIN105
16 Nov 2008
DEN90
MIN84
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Denver Nuggets winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Minnesota Timberwolves winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Denver NuggetsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormNuggets
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
121-131
121
131
-10
119avg 115
H02/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
135-120
135
120
+15
129avg 115
A04/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
W
134-133
134
133
+1
129avg 115
A06/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
W
115-106
115
106
+9
110avg 115
A07/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
136-105
136
105
+31
139avg 115
A12/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
128-125 OT
128
125
+3
119avg 115
H16/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
126-115
126
115
+11
124avg 115
H19/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
101-115
101
115
-14
84avg 115
H20/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
135-112
135
112
+23
139avg 115
H23/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
130-131
130
131
-1
133avg 115
A24/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
41-27
27-42
36-33
17-29
33-28
39-20
30-31
33-41
23-41
31-32
40-30
40-30
34-34
23-24
30-23
28-25
41-26
36-28
32-27
27-24
24-30
34-21
31-35
28-31
25-32
43-22
31-31
27-30
29-26
16-27
21-29
35-33
40-15
29-31
34-38
32-28
27-41
29-25
47-37
27-28
245.4Avg total
126.1Scored
119.3Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (29)125.2116.5241.8+8.772%
Season at home (14)125.0116.7241.7+8.364%
Season away (15)125.5116.3241.8+9.180%
Last 10 (10)126.1119.3245.4+6.870%
Last 5 (5)124.0119.6243.6+4.460%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)93.0125.0218.0-32.00%
vs Similar ◀ (12)124.2117.0241.2+7.283%
vs Weaker (17)125.9116.2242.1+9.865%
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormTimberwolves
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
149-142 OT
149
142
+7
136avg 109
A03/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
W
125-116
125
116
+9
122avg 109
A05/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
W
109-106
109
106
+3
107avg 109
H07/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
105-108
105
108
-3
101avg 109
H09/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
W
127-120
127
120
+7
124avg 109
A13/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
117-103
117
103
+14
107avg 109
H15/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
L
110-116
110
116
-6
98avg 109
H18/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
W
112-107
112
107
+5
100avg 109
H20/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
W
103-100
103
100
+3
96avg 109
H22/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
115-104
115
104
+11
102avg 109
H24/12
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
31-25
27-43
42-35
29-26
35-30
27-32
26-28
37-26
22-34
20-22
30-22
37-28
23-29
34-32
27-23
21-24
28-27
33-36
27-28
39-29
20-27
31-25
37-32
29-19
27-29
35-32
21-27
27-28
23-33
25-18
35-34
29-22
23-29
25-31
27-15
28-25
31-28
27-24
27-27
30-25
229.4Avg total
117.2Scored
112.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (30)118.5113.5232.0+5.067%
Season at home (17)115.9109.4225.3+6.671%
Season away (13)121.8118.8240.7+3.062%
Last 10 (10)117.2112.2229.4+5.080%
Last 5 (5)111.4106.0217.4+5.480%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)115.0114.7229.7+0.367%
vs Similar ◀ (10)114.5116.1230.6-1.640%
vs Weaker (14)122.9111.1233.9+11.886%
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: -2.8-2.8Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +5.4+5.4
-7-3+0+3+7Q1Q1: +1.7+1.7Q1: -2.8-2.8Q2Q2: +3.5+3.5Q2: -1.1-1.1Q3Q3: +1.8+1.8Q3: +2.8+2.8Q4Q4: -0.5-0.5Q4: +5.4+5.4
Denver NuggetsMinnesota Timberwolves
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Denver NuggetsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
68-69
68
69
-1
H02/12
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#29
W
72-48
72
48
+24
A04/12
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#12
L
54-73
54
73
-19
A06/12
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#14
L
57-58
57
58
-1
A07/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
W
77-54
77
54
+23
A12/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
W
58-51
58
51
+7
H16/12
NBA
Orlando Magic
#13
W
68-54
68
54
+14
H19/12
NBA
Houston Rockets
#8
L
45-53
45
53
-8
H20/12
NBA
Utah Jazz
#26
W
69-46
69
46
+23
H23/12
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#24
L
56-66
56
66
-10
A24/12
NBA
119.6Avg total
62.4Scored
57.2Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)61.857.3119.1+4.567%-
Last 30 at home (14)64.155.4119.5+8.686%-
Last 30 away (16)59.858.9118.8+0.950%-
Last 10 (10)62.457.2119.6+5.250%-
Last 5 (5)59.254.0113.2+5.260%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (1)46.060.0106.0-14.00%-
vs Similar ◀ (12)59.259.2118.4+0.142%-
vs Weaker (17)64.555.8120.4+8.788%-
This opponent (Minnesota Timberwolves) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Minnesota TimberwolvesLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
L
58-68
58
68
-10
A03/12
NBA
New Orleans Pelicans
#23
D
62-62
62
62
+0
A05/12
NBA
Los Angeles Clippers
#18
L
42-56
42
56
-14
H07/12
NBA
Phoenix Suns
#16
L
57-61
57
61
-4
H09/12
NBA
Golden State Warriors
#20
L
61-63
61
63
-2
A13/12
NBA
Sacramento Kings
#27
L
51-52
51
52
-1
H15/12
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#25
W
62-61
62
61
+1
H18/12
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#1
L
48-51
48
51
-3
H20/12
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#21
L
48-60
48
60
-12
H22/12
NBA
New York Knicks
#4
W
58-52
58
52
+6
H24/12
NBA
113.3Avg total
54.7Scored
58.6Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)57.957.0114.9+0.937%-
Last 30 at home (17)58.856.1114.9+2.641%-
Last 30 away (13)56.858.2115.0-1.531%-
Last 10 (10)54.758.6113.3-3.920%-
Last 5 (5)53.455.2108.6-1.840%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger (6)53.856.2110.0-2.333%-
vs Similar ◀ (10)56.260.1116.3-3.920%-
vs Weaker (14)60.955.2116.1+5.650%-
This opponent (Denver Nuggets) is Similar. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

No special markets priced for this game yet.

🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Denver Nuggetstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Denver Nuggets: 126.1 points a game scored
🏀🏀49%
🏀🏀🏀36%
🏀14%
🏀🏀 2-pointers62.0 pts a game · 49% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers45.9 pts a game · 36% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.2 pts a game · 14% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers53.331.0
58.2%
54.8%62.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers35.215.3
43.5%
35.8%45.9
🏀 Free throws23.118.2
78.8%
78.1%18.2
They take 88.5 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 35.2 of them are 3-pointers, so 40% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Minnesota Timberwolvestheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Minnesota Timberwolves: 117.2 points a game scored
🏀🏀47%
🏀🏀🏀35%
🏀19%
🏀🏀 2-pointers54.8 pts a game · 47% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers40.5 pts a game · 35% of the points
🏀 Free throws21.9 pts a game · 19% of the points
League average for comparison: 115.1 points a game
49%
34%
16%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers50.027.4
54.8%
54.8%54.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers39.613.5
34.1%
35.8%40.5
🏀 Free throws29.021.9
75.5%
78.1%21.9
They take 89.6 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 39.6 of them are 3-pointers, so 44% of their shots are threes (league average: 42%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Dec 2025 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Denver Nuggets
LWLWWWWWWL
Minnesota Timberwolves
WWWLWWLWWW
#6
League position
#10
+6.7
Net rating
+4.8
124.1
Offensive rating
113.2
117.4
Defensive rating
108.4
61.0%
Effective FG%
53.2%
57.6%
Opp. effective FG%
50.8%
10.8%
Turnover %
12.3%
19.2%
Off. rebound %
26.3%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.32
43.5%
3-point %
34.1%
65.7%
Assist %
64.1%
70%
Form (last 10/10)
80%

Profile

Offence124.1 · 113.2Defence117.4 · 108.4Shooting61.0% · 53.2%3-point %43.5% · 34.1%Ball care10.8% · 12.3%Off. rebounds19.2% · 26.3%Free throws0.26 · 0.32Form (last 10/10)70% · 80%
■ Denver Nuggets   ■ Minnesota Timberwolves
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

DateH/AOpponentScore
24/12/25ADallas Mavericks130-131
23/12/25HUtah Jazz135-112
20/12/25HHouston Rockets101-115
19/12/25HOrlando Magic126-115
16/12/25HHouston Rockets128-125 OT
12/12/25ASacramento Kings136-105
07/12/25ACharlotte Hornets115-106
06/12/25AAtlanta Hawks134-133
04/12/25AIndiana Pacers135-120
02/12/25HDallas Mavericks121-131
DateH/AOpponentScore
24/12/25HNew York Knicks115-104
22/12/25HMilwaukee Bucks103-100
20/12/25HOklahoma City Thunder112-107
18/12/25HMemphis Grizzlies110-116
15/12/25HSacramento Kings117-103
13/12/25AGolden State Warriors127-120
09/12/25HPhoenix Suns105-108
07/12/25HLos Angeles Clippers109-106
05/12/25ANew Orleans Pelicans125-116
03/12/25ANew Orleans Pelicans149-142 OT

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Denver Nuggets
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWL72%
HomeLWWLW64%
AwayWWWWL80%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games291415
Win %72%64%80%
Points / game125.2125.0125.5
Allowed / game116.5116.7116.3
Point differential+8.7+8.3+9.1
Avg total241.8241.7241.8
Over main line---
Win by 10+52%50%53%
Close games (≤5 pts) won38% (8)25% (4)50% (4)
Overtime %7%7%7%
Minnesota Timberwolves
NBA 2025-26
Recent: 8 Wins / 2 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLWWW67%
HomeWLWWW71%
AwayLLWWW62%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games301713
Win %67%71%62%
Points / game118.5115.9121.8
Allowed / game113.5109.4118.8
Point differential+5.0+6.6+3.0
Avg total232.0225.3240.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+33%41%23%
Close games (≤5 pts) won60% (10)71% (7)33% (3)
Overtime %7%0%15%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Oklahoma City Thunder2925486%121.1107.9+13.3
2 Detroit Pistons3024680%119.2112.3+6.9
3 San Antonio Spurs2821775%120.2113.1+7.1
4 Denver Nuggets2921872%125.2116.5+8.7
5 New York Knicks2819968%120.0113.5+6.5
6 Los Angeles Lakers2819968%116.9116.9-0.1
7 Minnesota Timberwolves30201067%118.5113.5+5.0
8 Houston Rockets28181064%120.5112.1+8.3
9 Boston Celtics29181162%116.0110.0+6.0
10 Toronto Raptors30181260%113.8111.5+2.4
11 Phoenix Suns28161257%115.8113.0+2.8
12 Orlando Magic28161257%117.1114.5+2.6
13 Philadelphia 76ers28161257%116.6115.4+1.2
14 Cleveland Cavaliers32171553%120.2117.8+2.4
15 Miami Heat29151452%119.6117.7+2.0
16 Golden State Warriors31161552%114.5112.4+2.2
17 Atlanta Hawks31151648%118.8119.6-0.8
18 Chicago Bulls29141548%119.7123.0-3.3
19 Memphis Grizzlies30141647%115.0116.2-1.2
20 Milwaukee Bucks30121840%113.0116.2-3.1
21 Portland Trail Blazers30121840%117.1120.5-3.4
22 Dallas Mavericks32122038%113.7117.6-3.9
23 Utah Jazz29101934%119.9127.4-7.6
24 Charlotte Hornets30102033%115.4118.8-3.4
25 Brooklyn Nets2891932%109.3113.9-4.6
26 Los Angeles Clippers2982128%111.2115.7-4.5
27 New Orleans Pelicans3182326%115.5122.8-7.3
28 Sacramento Kings3072323%112.0122.5-10.5
29 Indiana Pacers3062420%109.2117.7-8.5
30 Washington Wizards2852318%112.6126.1-13.5
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4OTFinal
Denver Nuggets3225352327142
Minnesota Timberwolves2926233723138
← all games of the day
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