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Miami Heat vs Boston Celtics Result & Analysis

Date: Fri 26 Jan 2024
Tip-off: 00:30
Final 110-143
29-42 35-35 26-36 20-30
Position#18
Record24-20
FormWLLLL
Points / game110.5
Allowed / game110.5
vs
Position#1
Record34-9
FormWWLWW
Points / game120.5
Allowed / game110.3
USANBA· Kaseya Center (Miami)
NBA2023-24
Meetings · Miami Heat v Boston Celtics
27 Mar 2027
MIA v BOS
upcoming
01 Apr 2026
MIA129
BOS147
15 Jan 2026
MIA114
BOS119
14 Mar 2025
MIA91
BOS103
10 Feb 2025
MIA85
BOS103
29 Apr 2024
MIA88
BOS102
27 Apr 2024
MIA84
BOS104
11 Feb 2024
MIA106
BOS110
25 Jan 2024
MIA110
BOS143
27 May 2023
MIA103
BOS104
23 May 2023
MIA99
BOS116
21 May 2023
MIA128
BOS102
24 Jan 2023
MIA98
BOS95
21 Oct 2022
MIA104
BOS111
29 May 2022
MIA96
BOS100
25 May 2022
MIA80
BOS93
19 May 2022
MIA102
BOS127
17 May 2022
MIA118
BOS107
04 Nov 2021
MIA78
BOS95
06 Jan 2021
MIA105
BOS107
27 Sep 2020
MIA125
BOS113
23 Sep 2020
MIA112
BOS109
19 Sep 2020
MIA106
BOS117
04 Aug 2020
MIA112
BOS106
11 Apr 2020
MIA v BOS
upcoming
28 Jan 2020
MIA101
BOS109
03 Apr 2019
MIA102
BOS112
10 Jan 2019
MIA115
BOS99
22 Nov 2017
MIA104
BOS98
28 Oct 2017
MIA90
BOS96
18 Dec 2016
MIA95
BOS105
28 Nov 2016
MIA104
BOS112
30 Nov 2015
MIA95
BOS105
09 Mar 2015
MIA90
BOS100
21 Dec 2014
MIA100
BOS84
21 Jan 2014
MIA93
BOS86
09 Nov 2013
MIA110
BOS111
12 Apr 2013
MIA109
BOS101
30 Oct 2012
MIA120
BOS107
09 Jun 2012
MIA101
BOS88
05 Jun 2012
MIA90
BOS94
30 May 2012
MIA115
BOS111
28 May 2012
MIA93
BOS79
10 Apr 2012
MIA107
BOS115
27 Dec 2011
MIA115
BOS107
11 May 2011
MIA97
BOS87
03 May 2011
MIA102
BOS91
01 May 2011
MIA99
BOS90
10 Apr 2011
MIA100
BOS77
11 Nov 2010
MIA107
BOS112
25 Apr 2010
MIA101
BOS92
23 Apr 2010
MIA98
BOS100
06 Jan 2010
MIA106
BOS112
29 Nov 2009
MIA85
BOS92
11 Mar 2009
MIA107
BOS99
21 Jan 2009
MIA83
BOS98
Sections

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Miami Heat winLost
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
Boston Celtics winWon
-no forecast
Best oddsnone
Implied-
Edge-
No frozen forecast was made for this game before tip-off.

🏀 2. Points Analysis

Miami HeatUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormHeat
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
97-113
97
113
-16
92avg 102
A06/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
120-113
120
113
+7
118avg 102
H09/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
L
120-128
120
128
-8
109avg 102
H11/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
99-96
99
96
+3
91avg 102
H13/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
104-87
104
87
+17
103avg 102
H14/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
W
96-95 OT
96
95
+1
90avg 102
A16/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
97-121
97
121
-24
84avg 102
A18/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
108-109
108
109
-1
102avg 102
H20/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
L
87-105
87
105
-18
75avg 102
A21/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
96-105
96
105
-9
86avg 102
H25/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-33
26-29
20-32
22-19
34-27
25-32
32-23
29-31
35-29
34-36
27-34
24-29
30-22
26-33
19-18
24-23
26-16
26-15
25-30
27-26
16-22
15-23
37-24
20-19
18-41
25-37
30-16
24-27
24-32
32-25
27-24
25-28
19-22
27-26
23-33
18-24
22-21
20-28
26-33
28-23
209.6Avg total
102.4Scored
107.2Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (44)110.5110.5221.1-0.055%
Season at home (21)114.2113.6227.8+0.657%
Season away (23)107.2107.8215.0-0.652%
Last 10 (10)102.4107.2209.6-4.840%
Last 5 (5)96.8107.0203.8-10.220%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)114.0120.0234.0-6.00%
vs Similar (21)111.6111.8223.4-0.252%
vs Weaker (7)107.0107.3214.3-0.357%
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsUSALast 10 – points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
🔥 FormCeltics
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
118-101
118
101
+17
116avg 112
A07/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
L
131-133
131
133
-2
122avg 112
A09/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
W
127-120 OT
127
120
+7
117avg 112
H11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#8
L
102-135
102
135
-33
81avg 112
A12/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
145-113
145
113
+32
140avg 112
H14/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
105-96
105
96
+9
100avg 112
A16/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
117-98
117
98
+19
112avg 112
H18/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#3
L
100-102
100
102
-2
85avg 112
H20/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
116-107
116
107
+9
112avg 112
A22/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
119-110
119
110
+9
111avg 112
A23/01
NBA
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
29-17
29-32
26-32
34-20
34-33
34-26
33-44
30-30
32-27
22-26
25-32
32-26
23-41
15-34
32-36
32-24
35-31
34-27
43-28
33-27
29-25
32-30
23-20
21-21
30-25
40-20
24-33
23-20
32-31
29-24
21-26
18-21
35-25
35-30
20-25
26-27
24-26
41-33
29-24
25-27
229.5Avg total
118.0Scored
111.5Allowed
SplitScoredAllowedTotalMarginWin %
Season (43)120.5110.3230.8+10.179%
Season at home (21)122.9108.1231.0+14.895%
Season away (22)118.2112.5230.7+5.764%
Last 10 (10)118.0111.5229.5+6.570%
Last 5 (5)111.4102.6214.0+8.880%
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)123.0127.0250.0-4.00%
vs Weaker ◀ (29)121.9112.0233.9+9.979%
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.

📊 3. Team Totals

No team totals priced for this game yet.

⚖️ 4. Spread

No spread forecast for this game yet.

⏱️ 5. Quarters & Halves

Quarter by quarter

-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: -2.4-2.4Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +3.1+3.1
-4-2+0+2+4Q1Q1: -1.2-1.2Q1: +2.2+2.2Q2Q2: -2.8-2.8Q2: +2.9+2.9Q3Q3: -0.1-0.1Q3: -2.4-2.4Q4Q4: -0.8-0.8Q4: +3.1+3.1
Miami HeatBoston Celtics
Each team's average quarter over its last 10 games. Net is the quarter margin (above zero = the team wins that quarter on average: who starts fast, who closes); Pythia projection = the quarter means of tonight's simulation. Hover a bar for its value.
Bets by quarter and half · pick a period
Miami HeatLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Phoenix Suns
#9
L
55-62
55
62
-7
A06/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
D
59-59
59
59
+0
H09/01
NBA
Oklahoma City Thunder
#2
W
69-65
69
65
+4
H11/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
W
56-55
56
55
+1
H13/01
NBA
Charlotte Hornets
#28
W
52-31
52
31
+21
H14/01
NBA
Brooklyn Nets
#22
L
31-45
31
45
-14
A16/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
L
43-78
43
78
-35
A18/01
NBA
Atlanta Hawks
#21
L
56-57
56
57
-1
H20/01
NBA
Orlando Magic
#14
L
46-48
46
48
-2
A21/01
NBA
Memphis Grizzlies
#24
L
42-49
42
49
-7
H25/01
NBA
105.8Avg total
50.9Scored
54.9Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)56.655.6112.2+1.047%-
Last 30 at home (16)58.655.7114.3+2.956%-
Last 30 away (14)54.355.5109.8-1.236%-
Last 10 (10)50.954.9105.8-4.030%-
Last 5 (5)43.655.499.0-11.80%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Stronger ◀ (2)67.559.5127.0+8.0100%-
vs Similar (21)56.956.0112.9+0.943%-
vs Weaker (7)52.753.3106.0-0.643%-
This opponent (Boston Celtics) is Stronger. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
Boston CelticsLast 10 – 1st half points for & against
Opponent
Position
Result
Score
Points
Margin
Date
Competition
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
58-49
58
49
+9
A07/01
NBA
Indiana Pacers
#17
W
68-59
68
59
+9
A09/01
NBA
Minnesota Timberwolves
#4
W
54-53
54
53
+1
H11/01
NBA
Milwaukee Bucks
#8
L
38-75
38
75
-37
A12/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
69-58
69
58
+11
H14/01
NBA
Toronto Raptors
#25
W
61-55
61
55
+6
A16/01
NBA
San Antonio Spurs
#26
W
70-45
70
45
+25
H18/01
NBA
Denver Nuggets
#3
W
61-55
61
55
+6
H20/01
NBA
Houston Rockets
#19
W
70-55
70
55
+15
A22/01
NBA
Dallas Mavericks
#6
W
65-59
65
59
+6
A23/01
NBA
117.7Avg total
61.4Scored
56.3Allowed
1st halfScoredAllowedTotalMarginWon the halfOver main line
Last 30 (30)63.656.0119.6+7.787%-
Last 30 at home (16)64.854.9119.7+9.981%-
Last 30 away (14)62.357.2119.5+5.193%-
Last 10 (10)61.456.3117.7+5.190%-
Last 5 (5)65.453.8119.2+11.6100%-
Last 30 games by opponent strength
vs Strongerno games
vs Similar (1)61.058.0119.0+3.0100%-
vs Weaker ◀ (29)63.755.9119.6+7.886%-
This opponent (Miami Heat) is Weaker. The matching 'vs' row is the one to weigh.
1st half bets · Pythia's probability, the best price and the edge
No 1st half markets priced for this game yet.

⭐ 6. Specials 🔒 Pro

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🔥 7. Top picks for this game

No priced selection above 70% for this game yet.
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🎯 8. Shooting Profile

Show:Over:
Miami Heattheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Miami Heat: 102.4 points a game scored
🏀🏀51%
🏀🏀🏀32%
🏀18%
🏀🏀 2-pointers52.0 pts a game · 51% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.4 pts a game · 32% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.0 pts a game · 18% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers51.826.0
50.2%
54.4%52.0
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers32.110.8
33.6%
36.3%32.4
🏀 Free throws22.018.0
81.8%
78.2%18.0
They take 83.9 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 32.1 of them are 3-pointers, so 38% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.
Boston Celticstheir own shots, last 10 games

Where their points come from

Boston Celtics: 118.0 points a game scored
🏀🏀42%
🏀🏀🏀42%
🏀16%
🏀🏀 2-pointers49.8 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers49.5 pts a game · 42% of the points
🏀 Free throws18.7 pts a game · 16% of the points
League average for comparison: 113.5 points a game
51%
34%
15%

Shooting by shot type

Shot typeAttempts per gameMade per gameAccuracy
(made ÷ attempts)
League accuracyPoints per game
🏀🏀 2-pointers48.424.9
51.4%
54.4%49.8
🏀🏀🏀 3-pointers41.916.5
39.4%
36.3%49.5
🏀 Free throws24.018.7
77.9%
78.2%18.7
They take 90.3 shots from the field a game (2-pointers + 3-pointers); 41.9 of them are 3-pointers, so 46% of their shots are threes (league average: 40%). Accuracy is green when it beats the league average.

💪 9. Team Strengths

Side by side

Last 10/10 games with a box score before 26 Jan 2024 (all competitions); ratings are points per 100 possessions. The better figure is green.
Miami Heat
LLLLWWWLWL
Boston Celtics
WWLWWWLWLW
#18
League position
#1
-4.9
Net rating
+6.4
105.2
Offensive rating
116.4
110.1
Defensive rating
110.0
50.3%
Effective FG%
55.0%
53.0%
Opp. effective FG%
51.6%
14.2%
Turnover %
10.3%
22.8%
Off. rebound %
21.6%
0.26
Free-throw rate
0.27
33.6%
3-point %
39.4%
65.5%
Assist %
58.2%
40%
Form (last 10/10)
70%

Profile

Offence105.2 · 116.4Defence110.1 · 110.0Shooting50.3% · 55.0%3-point %33.6% · 39.4%Ball care14.2% · 10.3%Off. rebounds22.8% · 21.6%Free throws0.26 · 0.27Form (last 10/10)40% · 70%
■ Miami Heat   ■ Boston Celtics
The middle ring is the league average on each axis; outward = better than the league (defence and ball care: fewer points / turnovers is better). Form: share of the last 10 won. The figures are each team's own, the better one bold.

🤝 10. Games History

Head-to-head record
6
Miami Heat wins
4
Boston Celtics wins
Miami Heatlast 10
DateH/AOpponentScore
25/01/24HMemphis Grizzlies96-105
21/01/24AOrlando Magic87-105
20/01/24HAtlanta Hawks108-109
18/01/24AToronto Raptors97-121
16/01/24ABrooklyn Nets96-95 OT
14/01/24HCharlotte Hornets104-87
13/01/24HOrlando Magic99-96
11/01/24HOklahoma City Thunder120-128
09/01/24HHouston Rockets120-113
06/01/24APhoenix Suns97-113
DateH/AOpponentScore
23/01/24ADallas Mavericks119-110
22/01/24AHouston Rockets116-107
20/01/24HDenver Nuggets100-102
18/01/24HSan Antonio Spurs117-98
16/01/24AToronto Raptors105-96
14/01/24HHouston Rockets145-113
12/01/24AMilwaukee Bucks102-135
11/01/24HMinnesota Timberwolves127-120 OT
09/01/24AIndiana Pacers131-133
07/01/24AIndiana Pacers118-101

📊 11. Overall Statistics

Miami Heat
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 4 Wins / 6 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWLLLL55%
HomeLWWLL57%
AwayWLWLL52%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games442123
Win %55%57%52%
Points / game110.5114.2107.2
Allowed / game110.5113.6107.8
Point differential-0.0+0.6-0.6
Avg total221.1227.8215.0
Over main line---
Win by 10+16%14%17%
Close games (≤5 pts) won58% (12)57% (7)60% (5)
Overtime %2%0%4%
Boston Celtics
NBA 2023-24
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Losses (last 10)
FormLast 5Win %
OverallWWLWW79%
HomeWWWWL95%
AwayLLWWW64%
StatsOverallHomeAway
Games432122
Win %79%95%64%
Points / game120.5122.9118.2
Allowed / game110.3108.1112.5
Point differential+10.1+14.8+5.7
Avg total230.8231.0230.7
Over main line---
Win by 10+47%57%36%
Close games (≤5 pts) won45% (11)67% (3)38% (8)
Overtime %12%10%14%
This competition's season before tip-off. Green = better than tonight's opponent on the same split; win-% badge green from 60%, red below 40%.

🏆 12. League Table

#TeamGPWLWin %PF/gPA/gDiff
1 Boston Celtics4334979%120.5110.3+10.1
2 Milwaukee Bucks42301271%124.2120.1+4.1
3 Oklahoma City Thunder44311370%121.9113.6+8.3
4 Minnesota Timberwolves44311370%113.5107.8+5.7
5 Denver Nuggets45311469%115.9110.9+5.0
6 Philadelphia 76ers43291467%119.8112.0+7.8
7 Los Angeles Clippers42281467%118.0112.1+5.9
8 New York Knicks43271663%114.8109.6+5.3
9 Cleveland Cavaliers42261662%114.0110.1+4.0
10 Phoenix Suns43261760%116.8114.2+2.5
11 New Orleans Pelicans42251760%118.0112.0+6.0
12 Sacramento Kings41241759%118.4117.5+0.9
13 Dallas Mavericks44242055%118.1117.8+0.3
14 Miami Heat44242055%110.5110.5-0.0
15 Indiana Pacers43232053%124.8123.2+1.6
16 Orlando Magic44232152%111.4111.2+0.3
17 Utah Jazz46232350%117.5119.2-1.7
18 Chicago Bulls45212447%110.6112.1-1.4
19 Houston Rockets43202347%112.9112.7+0.2
20 Los Angeles Lakers43202347%114.6116.8-2.2
21 Golden State Warriors41192246%117.6118.0-0.4
22 Atlanta Hawks44182641%119.6122.7-3.1
23 Brooklyn Nets43172640%113.9115.6-1.7
24 Memphis Grizzlies44172739%107.8112.9-5.1
25 Toronto Raptors44162836%114.3116.4-2.0
26 Portland Trail Blazers44133130%108.2117.3-9.0
27 Charlotte Hornets42103224%108.7119.8-11.0
28 San Antonio Spurs4483618%112.8122.1-9.3
29 Washington Wizards4473716%115.0124.7-9.7
30 Detroit Pistons4453911%112.5122.6-10.2
Built from this season's results before tip-off (all phases of the competition). Click a column to sort. Bars: win %, points scored and allowed per game across the league, and the point differential (green +, red -). 30 teams: scroll the table.

📋 13. Box Score

TeamQ1Q2Q3Q4Final
Miami Heat29352620110
Boston Celtics42353630143
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18+ · BASKETBALL ANALYTICS, NOT BETTING ADVICE

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